It's been said that hope springs eternal, but in college football it's like spring football gives eternal hope.
Teams are acclimating new players into the mix, getting guys back from injury or maybe picking up where they left off the previous season. Everyone is unbeaten, has the best work ethic and all coaches love what they see from their guys this time of year.
All teams have something they can improve upon, and that's where we come in.
Here is our look at the top 25 teams from the final Associated Press poll, and their biggest concerns this spring.
1 LSU: The defending national champs have a lot of retooling to do, so spring ball should be especially beneficial for guys stepping in to new/more pronounced roles. Star WR Ja'Marr Chase is back on offense, but he's just about the only one -- QB Joe Burrow, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire and WR Justin Jefferson are all gone, as are some major pieces on the OL. Throw in the loss of numerous playmakers on the stop side, along with offensive wunderkind Joe Brady, and it looks like a bit of a step back for the Bayou Bengals.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The linebackers. Gone are Patrick Queen, Michael Divinity, Jacob Phillips and K'Lavon Chaisson, so that group is starting from scratch. The offensive backfield and receiving corps also bears watching, as does the offensive mindset now that Brady is gone. He and Burrow combined to make magic in 2019, but both left for the NFL. It will be interesting to see if LSU reverts back to more of a ball-control, power game.
2 Clemson: The Tigers got a huge boost when RB Travis Etienne chose to return for his senior season, helping an offense that was already going to be lethal. Trevor Lawrence returns for what is likely his final season, and he still has standout WR Justyn Ross as a top weapon. Frank Ladson and Joseph Ngata should make themselves known this season, but there are some question marks on the offensive line, which must replace four starters. On defense, the questions are who is going to replace Swiss army knife Isaiah Simmons? And can the secondary rebound from its poor performance in the national championship game?
SPOTLIGHT ON: The secondary. Corner AJ Terrell decided to jump to the NFL a year early, and safeties K'Von Wallace and Tanner Muse have used up their eligibility. It's a big spring for Nolan Turner at one safety spot, and for Andrew Booth, who came in with a ton of accolades last season, at the corner spot vacated by Terrell.
3 Ohio State: Year one of the Ryan Day era went about as well as possible, with the Buckeyes making an appearance in the CFP. QB Justin Fields was a Heisman finalist and should be a favorite in 2020, but he will have to get used to a mostly new receiving corps and a couple of new faces up front. But it's on defense where things get interesting -- Chase Young and Jeff Okudah jumped to the NFL, Davon Hamilton, Damon Arnette, Malik Harrison and Jordan Fuller used up their eligibility, and all were vital cogs to one of the best defensive units in America. There is talent on hand, as well as a new sheriff in charge on defense (Kerry Coombs), so spring will be big in terms of getting everyone on the same page and unearthing new gems.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The backfield. It's hard to convey just how good, and valuable, JK Dobbins was. He was elusive and powerful as a runner, could catch the ball and was a solid blocker in pass pro. Among the candidates to replace him are Master Teague, a powerful straight ahead runner but without Dobbins shiftiness, Marcus Crowley, a nice combo of speed and finesse, Steele Chambers and freshman Miyan Williams. It will likely be a committee approach, and OSU needs to have a running game that complements Fields' massive skill set.
4 Georgia: There was some thought that the Bulldogs might take a bit of a step back with the loss of QB Jake Fromm and RBs D'Andre Swift and Brian Herrien. But good news came in the form of Wake Forest transfer Jamie Newman, who brings more of an athletic dynamic to the quarterback spot. The backfield is deep, and it will be fun to watch how much freshman receiver George Pickens improves in his second season. There are some losses on defense -- JR Reed and Tyler Clark most notably -- but a lot of young talent ready to prove itself.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The offensive line. Bookend tackles Andrew Thomas, Isaiah Wilson and Solomon Kindley all left for the NFL a year early, and upcoming star Cade Mays transferred to Tennessee. That leaves center Trey Hill as the lone holdover up front, though versatlie Ben Cleveland has a ton of experience and has played guard and tackle. Finding new pieces to replace the veterans will be a big order, but there isn't a lack of talent. O-line is about reps and chemistry, and that's what UGA will focus on this spring.
5 Oregon: The Ducks enter spring with potentially the best defense in college football. A loaded secondary returns, the linebacking corps has some star power and the front will be led by potential superstar EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux. Offense is where things get dicey -- Penei Sewell returns at OT, and is the nation's best at his spot. But Oregon must replace the other four, as well as QB Justin Herbert. Mario Cristobal has recruited well the last couple of seasons so the Ducks are getting better in the talent department.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The offense. Tyler Shough appears to be the leader at quarterback, and he has big time potential. But he's never had any meaningful action, and there isn't much experience behind him. Finding cohesion up front is paramount, and while Sewell is an uber talent, he can't do it alone. Oregon needs to find a combination that works by the time spring ends.
6 Florida: This could be the year when the Gators finally upset the SEC East apple cart and win the division. Dan Mullen has done very well with recruiting and has been able to utilize the talent on the roster, most of which returns. This is Kyle Trask's team now, though he will need to find some new weapons as the bulk of his receiving corps departs. The defense was aggressive under Todd Grantham and should be good once again, especially in the secondary.
SPOTLIGHT ON: Florida's hands guys. Freddie Swain, Van Jefferson, Josh Hammond, Tyrie Cleveland are all gone, so the Gators will look to fortify with some youth. Trevon Grimes should take center stage, and Kadarius Toney provides a speed component.
7 Oklahoma: The Sooners head into 2020 as the class of the Big 12 -- again -- but there are a few more questions than normal for Lincoln Riley's crew. Who is the go-to guy now that CeeDee Lamb has moved on? The guess is Charleston Rambo, though if Theo Wease or Jadon Haselwood emerge it would be no surprise. The line is mostly intact, and the ground game is in capable hands. Can Spencer Rattler live up to the tremendous hype that followed him from Arizona prep play? OU's top defensive stars are gone, and while the unit improved a ton over 2018 it still wasn't much better than average.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The back end of the defense. OU allowed 27 TD passes and had just seven picks last season, WITH Parnell Motley at one corner spot. He's gone, and while Tre Brown is emerging as a star at corner, the rest of the unit hasn't been good. The Sooners were good at creating pressure on the QB, so these guys bear the brunt of the blame for a leaky pass defense.
8 Alabama: Missing out on the CFP was a first for the Crimson Tide, so you have to believe that Nick Saban will be full-on tyrant mode this spring. There should be a battle at quarterback (Mac Jones and Bryce Young) and a few new faces on the OL. The defense is where the real retooling will be done, though the return of LB Dylan Moses cushions the blow of losing half of the starting unit. Bama's strength should once again be its front seven.
SPOTLIGHT ON: Attitude, and the secondary. A wounded Bama is a dangerous Bama, and Saban seethed when he saw a division rival win the national title. Look for him to ramp up the intensity this spring. Patrick Surtain is the only returning starter in the secondary, and while is an elite talent, he can't do it alone. This is step up time for Josh Jobe, Jordan Battle and DeMarco Hellams, all of whom entered the program with lofty prep praise.
9 Penn State: There was a ton of attrition at Michigan, so its logical to believe that the Nittany Lions will be Ohio State's chief obstacle in the B1G East. It will be intriguing to watch new OC Kirk Ciarrocca doing his thing, as his style at Minnesota seemed more suited to a team that favored the run. That plays to PSU's strength, as RB Journey Brown is a breakout talent and QB Sean Clifford proved himself a dangerous runner. For the offense to work, Clifford needs to improve his accuracy -- which might be tough given the paucity of weapons on hand. KJ Hamler left for the NFL and Justin Shorter transferred to Florida, so outside of excellent TE Pat Freiermuth there isn't much pass-catching experience. The defense should once again be nails, though the pass D needs to get better.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The secondary. For all of the good that Brent Pry has accomplished in his time as PSU DC, his secondaries have been hit (2017 & 18) or miss (2016 & 19). Interceptions have never been more than 13 in a season, and no one on the roster comes in to 2020 with more than two. Shoring up the back end is paramount because for as good as the pass rush is if it doesn't get there there's usually a big play for the opponent. Marquis Wilson looks like a burgeoning star at cornerback.
10 Minnesota: The Gophers had been trending upward, but few saw a double-digit wins season coming. Tanner Morgan is back at quarterback, and Mo Ibrahim will have the backfield to himself after sharing it with Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith. Rashod Bateman is already one of the best wideouts in college football and a big spring could catapult him to even bigger stardom. The defense loses a lot, and the coaching staff went through some changes.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The defense. The Gophers lose seven starters, including ball-hawking safety Antoine Winfield Jr and rush force Carter Coughlin. Minnesota ranked top 30 in Yards Per Play allowed (5.06) but may have trouble challenging that with a host of turnover on the stop side. DE Esezi Otomewo and DT Keonte Schad will have opportunities this spring to show their talents.
11 Wisconsin: This will be an interesting spring in Madison, as the Badgers gear for life without Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Biadasz and Quintez Cephus, among others. The offense welcomes back QB Jack Coan, but it may take him the entire spring before he learns the names of all of the new faces surrounding him. Most of the defense is back, but its two best players -- Zack Baun and Chris Orr -- depart for the NFL. Paul Chryst has won 52 games in five years and has shown the temperament to handle the UW job. Getting back to his winning ways in 2019 was great, but he may have to work a bit harder if the Badgers are to repeat. It begins in the spring.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The offense. It will be impossible for one guy to replace Taylor, so look for a committee of Nakia Watson and Julius Davis to handle the ground game. There will be three new faces in front of them, too, so gaining chemistry will be important.
12 Notre Dame: Apprehension turned to elation when QB Ian Book announced he was returning to South Bend for his final season. While not a game changer, Book is smart and can make enough throws for the Irish offense to be dangerous, Most of the offensive line returns, and RB Jafar Armstrong is also back. The defense returns most of its crucial pieces, including pass rusher Khalid Kareem and safety Kyle Hamilton. Brian Kelly has as much depth as at any point in his 11 years at Notre Dame, and how he gets that talent to gel will be a chief focus this spring,
SPOTLIGHT ON: The receiving corps. Chase Claypool, Chris Finke and Cole Kmet have moved on, and finding replacements won't be easy. Lawrence Keys, Michael Young, Javon McKinley and a host of others should get ample chances to state their case for playing time.
13 Baylor: It's a new era in Waco as former LSU DC Dave Aranda takes over for NFL-bound Matt Rhule. The Bears won 11 games a year ago but may be hard pressed to reach double digits as they transition to a new system and some attrition. Questions abound at quarterback, with the status of Charlie Brewer very much up in the air. He suffered his fourth career concussion in the Sugar Bowl and his status heading into spring is unknown. Jacob Zeno and Gerry Bohanon each played a bit in 2019 an could stage an intriguing competition if Brewer can't go. The defense should be good under Aranda, even with top stars James Lynch, Bravvion Roy and Grayland Arnold all gone. Baylor has been midpack in Big 12 recruiting the last few seasons so Aranda may need to get creative with personnel.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The offense. Three OL starters departed, the entire starting receiving group as well as leading rusher JaMycal Hasty are also gone. If Brewer can't play the Bears could be looking at an uphill climb. But you know the defense will be good, and maybe a new boss and scheme will work out better than expected. There will be many curious eyes in Waco this spring, that's for sure.
14 Auburn: The Tigers posted nine wins in a season when they were breaking in a freshman quarterback and were inconsistent on offense, so another year of experience for QB Bo Nix should make that unit better in 2020. The transfer of RB Boosie Whitlow means that DJ Williams has the backfield largely to himself. How Auburn's D will stay consistent is a big question -- it loses interior beast Derrick Brown, pass rushers Nick Coe and Marlon Davidson and most of its starting secondary. Gus Malzahn brought in former Arkansas HC Chad Morris to run the offense, so the Tigers should score points in bunches. The spring will be used to determine whether or not they can stop anyone.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The offensive line. All five starters depart, which isn't usually a portent of good things. With so much turnover up front it's imperative that Nix become a better passer. Whether or not his protection allows that will be the big question of the spring.
15 Iowa: With the improvement forecast in the Big Ten West, the Hawkeyes will need to navigate a lot of attrition on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Chief among them is QB Nate Stanley, who threw all but 12 of the Hawkeyes 411 passes last season. A bit of retooling is needed up front, but OT Alaric Jackson chose to return so that's a boost. On defense, the secondary will need to be retooled, and someone will need to take the place of pass rush terror AJ Epenesa, who jumped early to the pros.
SPOTLIGHT ON: Offensive explosiveness. From the beginning of October forward, Iowa scored more than 27 points just once, against USC in the Holiday Bowl. The defense should be slightly less lethal, so the offense will need to show that it can score points. Progress at quarterback in the spring will be a chief concern.
16 Utah: The window may have closed for the Utes national contention hopes, but the Pac-12 is still there for the taking, and there's enough talent left to keep Utah in the conversation. The OL returns largely intact, as does the receiving corps, but there will be a ton of new faces in the backfield, including QB Jake Bentley, a transfer from South Carolina. Defense is where the real patching begins, however, as eight starters depart. LB Devin Lloyd will become the leader in a unit lacking experience, but he has shown flashes of being a dynamic talent.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The defense. A really good unit in 2019, the Utes will be almost starting from scratch in 2020. DC Morgan Scalley will definitely be proving his worth if he can get this crew to play as well as last year's did. The good thing is that there may be a little more explosiveness on offense, so the D won't have to be quite as good.
17 Memphis: All eyes will be focused on the start of the Ryan Silverfield era, but fortunately for the Tigers it won't be a huge transtion as Silverfiled has been a part of the program for awhile. As an offensive line coach, he could bring a bit more toughness to the Memphis offense, but you know he'll want to keep the explosiveness Finding the right blend of both will be an interesting challenge. The return of QB Brady White and top WRs Damontie Coxie and Pop Williams (who missed most of 2019 with an injury) are welcome, and the defense returns largely intact.
SPOTLIGHT ON: Continuity. Can Silverfield keep up the momentum of last year's 12-2 campaign? Memphis has been inconsistent in recent seasons, going from 8 wins to 10 to 8 to 12. Will there be another dip this year, as players get acclimated to the new head coach? That's definitely something to watch this spring.
18 Michigan: Another year, another disappointment. UM felt 2019 was the year it was all going to fit, when it would beat Ohio State and be a Big Ten champ. Nope. With much of the offense gone it will be interesting to see what Jim Harbaugh does to put the Wolverines into contender status. He'll say all of the right things, that his team is focusing on itself and how much the OSU loss hurt. But the gap in talent between UM and OSU is tangible, and results are not likely to change until Michigan gets better players.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The offense, specifically quarterback. Shea Patterson had his moments over the last two seasons but was lacked consistency. Can Dylan McCaffrey alleviate that and make the Wolverines offense lethal? As much as anything, a deficit in quarterback play is what has kept UM from achieving its goals during the Harbaugh Era.
19 Appalachian State: Maybe fans in Boone feel used after Eli Drinkwitz bolted for Missouri after just one season as head coach, but the Mountaineers have been a resilient bunch and should be able to get past that. Shawn Clark, offensive line coach under Drinkwitz, takes the reins, and it's fortunate for him that most of the offense returns intact -- including four starters up front and QB Zac Thomas. The defense will need to be retooled, especially the secondary, but the Mountaineers have some good, young talent on hand who should be able to make their presence felt this spring.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The secondary. Shaun Jolly and Desmond Franklin were all-league performers and valuable leaders last year, and replacing them will not be easy. App State was top 20 nationally in pass efficiency defense, and must hope that Shemar Jean-Charles is the next prime time performer on the back end.
20 Navy: The Middies came back in a big way after a lackluster 2018, winning 11 games and finishing the year ranked in the top 25. This spring is about a rebuild, however, as record-setting quarterback Malcolm Perry has exhausted his eligibility. Navy can focus on offense this spring because most of the defense returns, including leading tackler LB Diego Fagot. Navy's triple option system is intricate and takes experience to run, so you can bet plenty of attention will be paid to the man taking the snaps.
SPOTLIGHT ON: Quarterback play. Perry did everything but play in the marching band, and it's silly to think that the Middies offense will be as good as it was last season. Perry Olsen got the most work of the returning quarterbacks and should have a leg up going into spring ball, but has to know that much of the onus of the Navy offense is resting on his shoulders.
21 Cincinnati: The Bearcats won 11 games in 2019 and enter the spring secure in the knowledge that coach Luke Fickell will still be around, after he fended off overtures from Michigan State to take over its head coaching spot. UC's offense will need to patch a few holes, but the defense should take center stage as most of a good unit returns, including secondary stars Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant..
SPOTLIGHT ON: Offensive line. The Bearcats were a physical, gritty team, but lacked explosiveness on offense. A big factor in that was OL play. The trench guys allowed 35 sacks, which was 108th nationally, and just 4.73 YPC, which was 46th. A young but talented group should get a lot of work this spring, and if it can find some cohesion it should be able to give the offense a bit of a boost.
22 Air Force: Like Navy, Air Force racked up 11 victories and proved to be a tough customer every tie out. The Falcons will have most of their backfield returning, and the left side of the OL is lethal with OT Parker Ferguson and OG Nolan Laufenberg anchoring things. Defense will be the big challenge this spring after losing seven starters. DC John Rudzinski has his work cut out plugging in new pieces, but the Falcons have improved as a defense in the past two seasons under his guidance, so the worries appear to be minimal.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The secondary Three starters depart from a group that was nothing special last year -- ranking 86th in pass efficiency D and picking off just seven passes. Milton Bugg III is the only real experienced player on the back end, so getting more productivity from this unit is paramount.
23 Boise State: The Broncos have recruited better than any other MWC team and have emerging young talent that should keep them in contention for a New Years Six bowl bid for the foreseeable future. Boise State won a dozen games despite losing QB Hank Bachmeier for nearly half of the season He returned for the bowl game and should be good to go this spring. Some new faces will need to be found on defense as more than half of the starting unit is gone, including pass rush terror Curtis Weaver. Sophomore Demitri Washington has a good shot at posting big numbers in that spot with a big spring showing.
SPOTLIGHT ON: Offensive line. Ezra Cleveland jumped a year early and three other starers -- all of whom made some form of the all-MWC team -- exhausted their eligibility. Finding replacements will be the chief task for the Broncos offensive braintrust this spring.
24 UCF: It tells you the kind of program UCF has built when 10-3 is seen as a disappointing season. Most of the important offensive pieces return, including QB Dillon Gabriel, RB Otis Anderson and WRs Tre Nixon and Marlon Williams. Defense took center stage in 2019 as UCF ranked fifth in YPP (4.57), but did allow 23 PPG. LB Eric Mitchell and S Richie Grant are hard hitters with experience and should lead a unit filled with speed and athleticism.
SPOTLIGHT ON: Discipline. UCF was one of the worst teams in America when it came to penalties, ranking 126th in yardage and 127th in infractions. The old adage is that you play the way you're coached, so Knights fans need to hope that the coaches have gotten better in their teaching methods. Too many times last season drives were ended because of unnecessary penalties -- and UCF still found a way to rank top 10 in scoring for 2019. This aspect will be scrutinized closely this spring.
25 Texas: The last time Texas lost fewer than four games was 2009, and Longhorns fans must be wondering when (or if) their team will ever truly be "back." There is a solid foundation in QB Sam Ehlinger and a fairly experienced offensive line, but some familiar receiving weapons must be replaced. The defense has some skill and experience, but was ravaged by injury in 2019. Getting those guys healthy and on the same page with new DC Chris Ash, who was let go after a disastrous stint as head coach at Rutgers. His defensive pedigree is excellent and his scheme allows the corners to make plays and the front to get after the quarterback without being blitz-happy.
SPOTLIGHT ON: The receiving corps. Even with the change in coaching and personnel on defense, the guys who catch the football will loom as huge pieces in any success Texas has in 2020. Collin Johnson and Devn Duvernay were old reliables, but now it's time for Jake Smith, Jordan Pouncey, Malcolm Epps and Brennan Eagles, among others, to show that they can handle the responsibility. Ehlinger is a great leader and lethal runner, but he can also throw the football. But if his receiving corps can't make plays then the offense will stagnate.
Monday, February 17, 2020
Tuesday, January 14, 2020
Putting A Bow On The 2019 Season
Man, that was fun. And if people are telling the truth, it was also unexpected.
Only the most die-hard LSU fan would have said at the beginning of the season that the Tigers would not only contend for a national title, but win one -- and in the process tear down all previous offensive records and have a generational season from its senior quarterback.
It became apparent pretty early that these Tigers weren't paper, and only a couple of close shaves against Auburn and Alabama lessened confidence. And then only by a little bit. LSU was focused, determined and together, all components that are needed to win a national title. Oh, and they have a coach that loves not only them, but the entire state of Louisiana. Ed Orgeron is the face (and voice) of the program, a cajun boy making the homefolks proud. So he washed out at Ole Miss, and wasn't given much consideration at USC? He's in the place he always wanted to be, leading the team he loves to the top of the college football mountain. He's as lovable as Dabo Swinney is annoying, though you have to wonder if that changes should LSU become the sport's latest dynasty.
The Tigers have quite a bit returning in 2020, though the defense could be impacted by a few juniors departing -- Patrick Queen, Jacob Phillips, Michael Divinity -- should they decide to do so. That would make repeating more difficult, but we already know that it's harder to stay at the top than it is to get there. The work begins now, and those that rest will get left behind.
Loose Ends
In alphabetical order they are:
Alabama
California
Clemson
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Minnesota
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Oregon
Penn State
USC
Virginia Tech
Group of Five teams to watch:
Appalachian State
Arkansas State
Boise State
Cincinnati
East Carolina
Fresno State
Kent State
Marshall
Memphis
Miami Ohio
Navy
San Diego State
Southern Miss
UAB
UCF
Wyoming
Only the most die-hard LSU fan would have said at the beginning of the season that the Tigers would not only contend for a national title, but win one -- and in the process tear down all previous offensive records and have a generational season from its senior quarterback.
It became apparent pretty early that these Tigers weren't paper, and only a couple of close shaves against Auburn and Alabama lessened confidence. And then only by a little bit. LSU was focused, determined and together, all components that are needed to win a national title. Oh, and they have a coach that loves not only them, but the entire state of Louisiana. Ed Orgeron is the face (and voice) of the program, a cajun boy making the homefolks proud. So he washed out at Ole Miss, and wasn't given much consideration at USC? He's in the place he always wanted to be, leading the team he loves to the top of the college football mountain. He's as lovable as Dabo Swinney is annoying, though you have to wonder if that changes should LSU become the sport's latest dynasty.
The Tigers have quite a bit returning in 2020, though the defense could be impacted by a few juniors departing -- Patrick Queen, Jacob Phillips, Michael Divinity -- should they decide to do so. That would make repeating more difficult, but we already know that it's harder to stay at the top than it is to get there. The work begins now, and those that rest will get left behind.
Loose Ends
- The time has more than arrived for a discussion about the targeting rule. We saw two game-changing ejections in the CFP -- Shaun Wade from Ohio State and James Skalski from Clemson -- that should have only been 15-yard penalties. By letter of the law both of the calls were correct, but to toss guys for being unlucky and a little careless versus malicious seems far too punitive. There are already penalties with degrees -- running into the kicker vs roughing, defensive holding vs pass interference. Hell, we had a five yard face mask vs 15 yards not that long ago. So how hard would it be to implement Targeting 1, which would simply be a 15-yard penalty and would apply to hits that fit the definition but lacked specific components -- launching, contact to the head -- and Targeting 2, which would satisfy every definition of the rule -- launch, crown of helmet, contact to the head and merit an ejection? This needs to be done so that big-time players aren't tossed from big-time games.
- Games have gotten too long, and that needs to be fixed. Two suggestions -- put a cap on replay review length, say 90 seconds to two minutes. If you can't figure it out by then, keep the call on the field. And don't stop the clock for first downs except in the final two minutes of a quarter or half.
- Schedule equity. Whether it's nine games (which I would prefer) or eight, all Power 5 leagues should play the same amount of conference games. It's silly for one league to be able to add a cupcake late in the season while others are embroiled in league wars. My thought would be nine games, along with three non-conference, two of which have to be against other Power 5 teams. Schools won't do this because the CFP committee has shown it has no problem with teams who schedule FCS squads but run the table. In fact, they give them preference over one loss teams that play good non-league schedules. Until the committee begins penalizing teams for poor scheduling this will continue. But it would be nice if leagues would at least talk about it.
- The transfer portal has become almost comical, and while I am still in favor of players being able to seek out better situations, there need to be some hard and fast rules. There are dates for high schoolers to sign with a school, dates for underclassmen to declare for the NFL Draft -- why not dates for transfers? Let's say you're at School A, you get hurt and likely aren't getting your job back. Or a new coach comes in and changes the scheme. Why should you be stuck? A player would be able to announce a transfer the day that classes at his current school ends -- provided he is in good academic standing and has the proper amount of credits to be on course for graduation. He could choose another school up to the time they start classes -- so if the player has finished his studies in December and wants to be around for spring ball, he'll have to work quickly. If it isn't quite as pressing, he can wait until spring term begins, which is April for most schools. Same for spring -- if a player feels he is beaten out and won't get to play, he can leave and pick another school, provided he is there in time for classes to begin in the summer. Coaches would no doubt like that as it would help them plan their rosters better, and it would give the players a bit more clarity if they knew there were specific dates they had to meet.
- While neither team will be anywhere near the top of the SEC West, it should be fun to watch Ole Miss and Mississippi State under the guidance of Lane Kiffin and Mike Leach. Think the Egg Bowl will be just a little bit of fun. Kiffin has shown he can recruit and is a pretty solid playcaller, but he also like being bigger than the program. Leach will spread everyone out, which will bring curses from opposing coaches, have an occasional season of contending for the division and making a bowl game just about every year. And his press conferences will be must attend.
In alphabetical order they are:
Alabama
California
Clemson
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Minnesota
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Oregon
Penn State
USC
Virginia Tech
Group of Five teams to watch:
Appalachian State
Arkansas State
Boise State
Cincinnati
East Carolina
Fresno State
Kent State
Marshall
Memphis
Miami Ohio
Navy
San Diego State
Southern Miss
UAB
UCF
Wyoming
Monday, January 13, 2020
CFB Focus National Championship Preview -- LSU vs Clemson
It's finally here.
The 2019 college football season plays its swan song in Bayou Country, at the Mercedes Benz Superdome in New Orleans, and two hungry packs of Tigers will look to etch their name in the history books.
The high-powered offense of top-ranked LSU, which has proven to be mostly unstoppable this season, takes on the defending national champion Clemson, which is playing the underdog card despite winning 29 games in a row. Both squads are filled with talent, and led by quarterbacks who have shown they won't be awed by the big stage.
In Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence we have the top two QBs in FBS when pressured, combining for 33 TDs and just one INT in those situations. Each has been remarkably efficient down the stretch and has come up big when needed, so getting them to flinch could be a huge task.
A win for Clemson would be the third national title in four years, and would cement Dabo Swinney's crew as the most lethal dynasty in the game, as well as its top whiner. The "aw shucks" stuff played well when Clemson was still relatively new, but it has grow beyond tired.
LSU played for the crown in 2011 but hasn't won it since 2007, and a victory would stamp Ed Orgeron as one of the more redemptive coaching stories in recent memory, He wasn't wanted by Ole Miss or USC, and had some anxious moments in Baton Rouge, too. But now Coach Eaux has a chance to elevate into the upper tier of college football by winning the whole thing.
The stage is set for another down to the wire contest, and there is only one certainty -- the Tigers will finish the night as champions.
CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (New Orleans)
(1) LSU Tigers (14-0) vs (3) Clemson Tigers (14-0)
BETTING NUMBERS: LSU -5.5, TOTAL 68.5
LSU TIGERS
BOWL RECORD: 27-23-1
BOWL RECORD vs Clemson: 2-1
RECORD vs Clemson: 2-1
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: 3 (1958/2003/2007)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 7
RUSHING OFFENSE: 4.86 YPC (32ND)
PASSING OFFENSE: 10.7 YPA (6TH)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.91 YPP (2ND)
SCORING OFFENSE: 48.9 (1ST)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.649 (2ND)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.767 (3RD)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 50.89 (4TH)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 78.57 (5TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 102 (2ND)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.059 (T-61ST)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 3.60 YPC (28TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 6.4 YPA (T-20TH)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 5.05 YPP (27TH)
SCORING DEFENSE: 21.6 (T-28TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.319 (T-24TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION: 1.633 (T-17TH)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 30.69 (T-9TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 63.16 (T-84TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 59 (T-69TH)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.073 (T-36TH)
TURNOVER MARGIN: +9 (T-13TH)
OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK: Those who haven't been living under a rock know just how lethal LSU's offense has been this season. A lot of it has been the masterful direction by Heisman winning QB Joe Burrow, who gets it done with a clean pocket AND when pressured, sporting the nation's highest grade in both categories according to Pro Football Focus. The Bayou Bengals are top three in scoring, points per play and points per possession and really haven't been slowed down all season. It isn't only Burrow, but the talent around him and the scheme. Joe Brady has been adept at finding mismatches and exploiting them, using the speed of his athletes on quick slants, hitches, crosses and posts. Ja'Marr Chase is the Biletnikoff Award winner and a stud, but Justin Jefferson had four first half touchdowns in the semifinal against Oklahoma. Terrace Marshall is a big target who can run after the catch, and TE Thaddeus Moss has the versatiilty to line up out wide, in the slot or close to the line. If the receivers dont get you, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire will. A powerful, aggressive runner, Edwards-Helaire loves getting the ball at crunch time and plays his best in the biggest games. He had just two carries against Oklahoma but will be used much more here, especially in the passing game. One concern for LSU could be Clemson's relentless pressure. Brent Venables crew has pressured the quarterback on 43 percent of their dropbacks, and has a nation's best 19 percent turnover rate. If Clemson can win that battle and limit LSU's possession it has a really good shot at winning.
DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK: LSU has gotten better on D as it has gotten healthier, and should bring its best unit to the table. LSU is strongest in its linebacker group, which is led by Patrick Queen and Jacob Phillips. Both have the speed to track down running backs as well as an abiilty to defend the pass, so Clemson may need to get creative with its playcalling. A fascinating matchup looms in the secondary as freshman CB Derek Stingley and running mate Kristian Fulton go up against Clemson's Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross, who are both 6-4 and can go up and get jump balls, and may have a physicality edge if LSU tries to press off the line. LSU will need to be on guard for runs by Trevor Lawrence, a facet of his game that really wasn't shown until the Fiesta Bowl. The specter of Travis Etienne in the backfield means that if LSU sells out too much to stop him there could be some running lanes for Lawrence. LSU has not been good when teams have gotten close to the end zone, sitting just 84th in red zone touchdown percentage (63.16). The Bayou Bengals have also given up a decent amount of explosive plays, so it will be interesting to see if Clemson can hit some shots downfield.
CLEMSON TIGERS
BOWL RECORD: 25-20
BOWL RECORD vs LSU: 1-2
RECORD vs LSU: 1-2
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: 3 (1981/2016/2018)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 56
RUSHING OFFENSE: 6.41 YPC (1ST)
PASSING OFFENSE: 8.7 YPA (T-12TH)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.46 YPP (4TH)
SCORING OFFENSE: 45.3 (4TH)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.618 (4TH)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.461 (5TH)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 46.47 (17TH)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 75.38 (9TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 94 (7TH)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.031 (T-5TH)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 3.13 YPC (9TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 5.5 YPA (1ST)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 4.16 YPP (2ND)
SCORING DEFENSE: 11.5 (1ST)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.166 (1ST)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION: 0.822 (1ST)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 31.48 (13TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 35,71 (2ND)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 35 (T-1ST)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.104 (6TH)
TURNOVER MARGIN: +16 (T-5TH)
OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK: It was pretty obvious to most observers that Ohio State had a talent advantage over Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl, but that wasn't enough to overcome the heart and desire of the Tigers. Lawrence seemed rejuvenated after leaving for a few moments following the targeting penalty by OSU's Shaun Wade, and was nothing short of brilliant in leading Clemson back from a 16-0 deficit. People tout Etienne's speed, but he is a lot more physical than his size shows. He led the nation in forced missed tackles, and is a home run threat whenever he touches the ball Don't be surprised if Clemson lures LSU in with the run game before using Etienne as a weapon in the air attack. Higgins and Ross present size matchup issues for LSU's secondary, which may need to play a bit more nickel than usual. The defense gets the headlines, but the offense has done some heavy lifting of its own, and ranks in the fop five in both points per play and points per possession.
DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK: Venables is a master with time to prepare, but even he may be flummoxed as to how to stop this high-octane LSU attack. There will no doubt be a lot of nickel and dime packages, which would seem to help LSU's running game. But Clemson does have a wild card in Isaiah Simmons, the most versatile defender in college football and a guy who can line up all over the place -- as a standup linebacker, over the slot, out wide in coverage and at a safety position. He never has to come off the field, and adds an athletic dimesion that LSU hasn't seen this season. It's a big advantage being able to keep him in on every defensive package, and he can be a big-time game changer. Tyler Davis is the one pass rusher LSU needs to worry about, as he netted 5.5 sacks and created havoc inside. Clemson's defense is tops in points per play and points per possession, and has been nails in the red zone -- just ask Ohio State. The Buckeyes had to settle for field goals on three occasions in the Fiesta Bowl, and punching any of those in could have made for a different outcome. Clemson's secondary is a veteran unit that likes to get physical -- sometimes too much so. But it will need to do that if it wants to throw LSU's passing attack off balance.
OVERVIEW: This one should be fun, and will be a chess match between LSU OC Brady and Clemson DC Venables, Both have rightly gained reputations as innovators, but it could come down to which unit shows the most toughness. Burrow has been great all year, and Lawrence since mid-October, so you don't worry about the guys handling the football. You do worry about discipline and untimely penalties and turnovers, which always have a hand in shaping the outcome. Neither team is dynamic in special teams, though LSU has excellent specialists in PK Cade York, who hasn't missed inside 40 yards this season, and P Zach Von Rosenberg, who has had just seven punts returned this season and has placed 18 inside the 20. There is something to be said for offense, and LSU has it in spades. It creates mismatches, has an accurate quarterback who thrives in the spotlight and a run game that is efficient enough to keep the chains moving, even if it lacks a consistent big play threat. But there is also something to be admired about a defending champion with the ability to click things into high gear when necessary, Nothing seems to bother Clemson, there is no panic, and Lawrence hasn't lost a game as a collegian. Both signal-callers are extremely tough, so it could be as simple as which one flinches first -- if at all. Defense has been the calling card of a majority of the last 10 national champions, and that edge has to go squarely to Dabo's crew.
Auburn gave the defensive blueprint on how to slow down LSU -- get aggressive up the middle and play sticky coverage on the wideouts, who have less room to operate when in the red zone. Auburn held LSU to a field goal and a turnover on downs (after getting to the Auburn 1), and forced two turnovers when LSU was inside the AU 30. Clemson has better athletes on defense than Auburn, so it may just be able to pull this off. Of course, that was before Burrow really started tearing things up, but the way he's played since November -- a stunning 25-2 TD-INT ratio -- indicates he may just be impervious to the bad game.
Clemson is looking to join Nebraska (1994-97) and Alabama (2009-12) as the only programs to win three national titles in four years, and in a game that lives up to the hype but is a bit lower scoring than a lot of people are forecasting, the experience, will and tenacity of the defending champion comes through.
Clemson 34, LSU 33
The 2019 college football season plays its swan song in Bayou Country, at the Mercedes Benz Superdome in New Orleans, and two hungry packs of Tigers will look to etch their name in the history books.
The high-powered offense of top-ranked LSU, which has proven to be mostly unstoppable this season, takes on the defending national champion Clemson, which is playing the underdog card despite winning 29 games in a row. Both squads are filled with talent, and led by quarterbacks who have shown they won't be awed by the big stage.
In Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence we have the top two QBs in FBS when pressured, combining for 33 TDs and just one INT in those situations. Each has been remarkably efficient down the stretch and has come up big when needed, so getting them to flinch could be a huge task.
A win for Clemson would be the third national title in four years, and would cement Dabo Swinney's crew as the most lethal dynasty in the game, as well as its top whiner. The "aw shucks" stuff played well when Clemson was still relatively new, but it has grow beyond tired.
LSU played for the crown in 2011 but hasn't won it since 2007, and a victory would stamp Ed Orgeron as one of the more redemptive coaching stories in recent memory, He wasn't wanted by Ole Miss or USC, and had some anxious moments in Baton Rouge, too. But now Coach Eaux has a chance to elevate into the upper tier of college football by winning the whole thing.
The stage is set for another down to the wire contest, and there is only one certainty -- the Tigers will finish the night as champions.
CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP (New Orleans)
(1) LSU Tigers (14-0) vs (3) Clemson Tigers (14-0)
BETTING NUMBERS: LSU -5.5, TOTAL 68.5
LSU TIGERS
BOWL RECORD: 27-23-1
BOWL RECORD vs Clemson: 2-1
RECORD vs Clemson: 2-1
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: 3 (1958/2003/2007)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 7
RUSHING OFFENSE: 4.86 YPC (32ND)
PASSING OFFENSE: 10.7 YPA (6TH)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.91 YPP (2ND)
SCORING OFFENSE: 48.9 (1ST)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.649 (2ND)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.767 (3RD)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 50.89 (4TH)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 78.57 (5TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 102 (2ND)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.059 (T-61ST)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 3.60 YPC (28TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 6.4 YPA (T-20TH)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 5.05 YPP (27TH)
SCORING DEFENSE: 21.6 (T-28TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.319 (T-24TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION: 1.633 (T-17TH)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 30.69 (T-9TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 63.16 (T-84TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 59 (T-69TH)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.073 (T-36TH)
TURNOVER MARGIN: +9 (T-13TH)
OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK: Those who haven't been living under a rock know just how lethal LSU's offense has been this season. A lot of it has been the masterful direction by Heisman winning QB Joe Burrow, who gets it done with a clean pocket AND when pressured, sporting the nation's highest grade in both categories according to Pro Football Focus. The Bayou Bengals are top three in scoring, points per play and points per possession and really haven't been slowed down all season. It isn't only Burrow, but the talent around him and the scheme. Joe Brady has been adept at finding mismatches and exploiting them, using the speed of his athletes on quick slants, hitches, crosses and posts. Ja'Marr Chase is the Biletnikoff Award winner and a stud, but Justin Jefferson had four first half touchdowns in the semifinal against Oklahoma. Terrace Marshall is a big target who can run after the catch, and TE Thaddeus Moss has the versatiilty to line up out wide, in the slot or close to the line. If the receivers dont get you, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire will. A powerful, aggressive runner, Edwards-Helaire loves getting the ball at crunch time and plays his best in the biggest games. He had just two carries against Oklahoma but will be used much more here, especially in the passing game. One concern for LSU could be Clemson's relentless pressure. Brent Venables crew has pressured the quarterback on 43 percent of their dropbacks, and has a nation's best 19 percent turnover rate. If Clemson can win that battle and limit LSU's possession it has a really good shot at winning.
DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK: LSU has gotten better on D as it has gotten healthier, and should bring its best unit to the table. LSU is strongest in its linebacker group, which is led by Patrick Queen and Jacob Phillips. Both have the speed to track down running backs as well as an abiilty to defend the pass, so Clemson may need to get creative with its playcalling. A fascinating matchup looms in the secondary as freshman CB Derek Stingley and running mate Kristian Fulton go up against Clemson's Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross, who are both 6-4 and can go up and get jump balls, and may have a physicality edge if LSU tries to press off the line. LSU will need to be on guard for runs by Trevor Lawrence, a facet of his game that really wasn't shown until the Fiesta Bowl. The specter of Travis Etienne in the backfield means that if LSU sells out too much to stop him there could be some running lanes for Lawrence. LSU has not been good when teams have gotten close to the end zone, sitting just 84th in red zone touchdown percentage (63.16). The Bayou Bengals have also given up a decent amount of explosive plays, so it will be interesting to see if Clemson can hit some shots downfield.
CLEMSON TIGERS
BOWL RECORD: 25-20
BOWL RECORD vs LSU: 1-2
RECORD vs LSU: 1-2
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: 3 (1981/2016/2018)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 56
RUSHING OFFENSE: 6.41 YPC (1ST)
PASSING OFFENSE: 8.7 YPA (T-12TH)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.46 YPP (4TH)
SCORING OFFENSE: 45.3 (4TH)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.618 (4TH)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.461 (5TH)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 46.47 (17TH)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 75.38 (9TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 94 (7TH)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.031 (T-5TH)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 3.13 YPC (9TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 5.5 YPA (1ST)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 4.16 YPP (2ND)
SCORING DEFENSE: 11.5 (1ST)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.166 (1ST)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION: 0.822 (1ST)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 31.48 (13TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 35,71 (2ND)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 35 (T-1ST)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.104 (6TH)
TURNOVER MARGIN: +16 (T-5TH)
OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK: It was pretty obvious to most observers that Ohio State had a talent advantage over Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl, but that wasn't enough to overcome the heart and desire of the Tigers. Lawrence seemed rejuvenated after leaving for a few moments following the targeting penalty by OSU's Shaun Wade, and was nothing short of brilliant in leading Clemson back from a 16-0 deficit. People tout Etienne's speed, but he is a lot more physical than his size shows. He led the nation in forced missed tackles, and is a home run threat whenever he touches the ball Don't be surprised if Clemson lures LSU in with the run game before using Etienne as a weapon in the air attack. Higgins and Ross present size matchup issues for LSU's secondary, which may need to play a bit more nickel than usual. The defense gets the headlines, but the offense has done some heavy lifting of its own, and ranks in the fop five in both points per play and points per possession.
DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK: Venables is a master with time to prepare, but even he may be flummoxed as to how to stop this high-octane LSU attack. There will no doubt be a lot of nickel and dime packages, which would seem to help LSU's running game. But Clemson does have a wild card in Isaiah Simmons, the most versatile defender in college football and a guy who can line up all over the place -- as a standup linebacker, over the slot, out wide in coverage and at a safety position. He never has to come off the field, and adds an athletic dimesion that LSU hasn't seen this season. It's a big advantage being able to keep him in on every defensive package, and he can be a big-time game changer. Tyler Davis is the one pass rusher LSU needs to worry about, as he netted 5.5 sacks and created havoc inside. Clemson's defense is tops in points per play and points per possession, and has been nails in the red zone -- just ask Ohio State. The Buckeyes had to settle for field goals on three occasions in the Fiesta Bowl, and punching any of those in could have made for a different outcome. Clemson's secondary is a veteran unit that likes to get physical -- sometimes too much so. But it will need to do that if it wants to throw LSU's passing attack off balance.
OVERVIEW: This one should be fun, and will be a chess match between LSU OC Brady and Clemson DC Venables, Both have rightly gained reputations as innovators, but it could come down to which unit shows the most toughness. Burrow has been great all year, and Lawrence since mid-October, so you don't worry about the guys handling the football. You do worry about discipline and untimely penalties and turnovers, which always have a hand in shaping the outcome. Neither team is dynamic in special teams, though LSU has excellent specialists in PK Cade York, who hasn't missed inside 40 yards this season, and P Zach Von Rosenberg, who has had just seven punts returned this season and has placed 18 inside the 20. There is something to be said for offense, and LSU has it in spades. It creates mismatches, has an accurate quarterback who thrives in the spotlight and a run game that is efficient enough to keep the chains moving, even if it lacks a consistent big play threat. But there is also something to be admired about a defending champion with the ability to click things into high gear when necessary, Nothing seems to bother Clemson, there is no panic, and Lawrence hasn't lost a game as a collegian. Both signal-callers are extremely tough, so it could be as simple as which one flinches first -- if at all. Defense has been the calling card of a majority of the last 10 national champions, and that edge has to go squarely to Dabo's crew.
Auburn gave the defensive blueprint on how to slow down LSU -- get aggressive up the middle and play sticky coverage on the wideouts, who have less room to operate when in the red zone. Auburn held LSU to a field goal and a turnover on downs (after getting to the Auburn 1), and forced two turnovers when LSU was inside the AU 30. Clemson has better athletes on defense than Auburn, so it may just be able to pull this off. Of course, that was before Burrow really started tearing things up, but the way he's played since November -- a stunning 25-2 TD-INT ratio -- indicates he may just be impervious to the bad game.
Clemson is looking to join Nebraska (1994-97) and Alabama (2009-12) as the only programs to win three national titles in four years, and in a game that lives up to the hype but is a bit lower scoring than a lot of people are forecasting, the experience, will and tenacity of the defending champion comes through.
Clemson 34, LSU 33
Saturday, December 28, 2019
CFB Focus Fiesta Bowl Preview
Many analysts and fans believe that the Fiesta Bowl is the de facto national championship game, as both Ohio State and Clemson have been atop nearly every efficiency metric/analytic measurement all season.
Whether or not either is the best remains to be seen. What isn't up for debate is that these two are the most well-rounded teams in the playoff. Both the Buckeyes and Tigers are top 10 in nearly every important category, on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and each has immense talent at the quarterback position -- Justin Fields for OSU and Trevor Lawrence for Clemson. They grew up 50 miles apart in Georgia and were the top two prizes of the 2016 recruiting season, and each can make plays.
Like the other semifinal, the quarterbacks may get the most attention, but the game will come down to which teams shuts down the run game the best. Both JK Dobbins for OSU and Travis Etienne are among the top backs in the country, and whichever has the bigger night will likely be helping his team move on to the championship game.
FIESTA BOWL
(2) Ohio State (13-0) vs. (3) Clemson (13-0)
BETTING NUMBERS: Clemson -2, TOTAL 63
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
BOWL RECORD: 24-25
BOWL RECORD vs Clemson: 0-3
RECORD vs Clemson: 0-3
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: 5 (1942/1954/1968/2002/2014)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 14
RUSHING OFFENSE: 5.67 YPC (6TH)
PASSING OFFENSE: 9.34 YPA (9TH)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.02 YPP (5TH)
SCORING OFFENSE: 48.7 (1ST)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.643 (3RD)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.981 (1ST)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 56.97 (1ST)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 81.94 (3RD)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 91 (5TH)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.079 (T-94TH)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 2,82 YPC (6TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 5.35 YPA (2ND)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 3.93 YPP (2ND)
SCORING DEFENSE: 12.5 (T-2ND)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.199 (3RD)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION: 0.976 (2ND)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 28.65 (4TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 39.29 (4TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 38 (T-7TH)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.122 (1ST)
TURNOVER MARGIN: +11 (T-9TH)
WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON OFFENSE
Justin Fields gets all the headlines, but JK Dobbins is the guy who truly makes this offense go. The junior has run like a man on a mission all season, showing equal parts power and elusiveness. His ability to get skinny in the hole and jump cut in space will challenge Clemson's athletic but sometimes overaggressive front seven, and he has the ability to take it to the house. Fields hasn't seen a defense this good all season, especially on the back end. He may need to run the ball more than he wants to, and it's unknown how effective he'll be as he's worked in practice with a brace on his left knee. He said in press conferences that he was around 85 percent, but teammates claim he has looked close to full speed. A mobile Fields will put much more pressure on Clemson to get home. Look for the Buckeyes to employ more underneath passing as its unlikely to find much open downfield against Clemson's sticky coverage. The Buckeyes offensive line has been a force in the run game, but has also shown a susceptibility to blitzes -- and that's what Clemson DC Brent Venables loves. He brings heat from all angles, and has involved the linebackers more this year than in previous seasons. If the Buckeyes can't hold up in the trenches it could be a very long night, another reason it might be a good idea to play a lot of 10 personnel and use the quick passing game.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON DEFENSE
It's fair to say Ohio State's offense hasn't seen defensive skill like it will see in Clemson, but the same is true for Clemson's offense -- there isn't a group in the ACC that has the athletes to hold up against the Tigers, but the Buckeyes have them at every level. DC Jeff Hafley has been a miracle worker repairing Ohio State's defense, which was top five in most important categories. Chase Young grabs the headlines, and with good reason. He led the nation in sacks despite missing two games, and has played his best on the biggest stage. If Clemson decides to be brave and block him with just a single lineman, Young should shine. The rest of the line has been good, too, staying true to its gap control principles. That's a big reason why Ohio State has been so much better against the run -- it's scheme and principles allow guys to get upfield. The Buckeyes linebacking corps is good but not great, but has shown more physicality than recent groups. They can all hit, but Clemson's speed will present problems. It's the back end where the most fascinating battles will take place. Jeff Okudah has the size and skill to shut down any of Clemson's receivers, and Damon Arnette on the other side isn't far behind. The X-factor is Shaun Wade, who has been great covering slot guys and has unusual instincts for the football. A healthy Wade means the Buckeyes can move their sets up front and be selective in their blitzes. The Buckeyes have employed a single-high safety look for most of the season, and its paid off as few teams have been able to hit big plays. Simple has been better this year, so don't look for the Buckeyes to change very much at this stage.
OUTLOOK
Conventional wisdom said the Buckeyes would take a step back after Urban Meyer walked away from the coaching profession. The man was ridiculously successful in his time in Columbus, and cast a large shadow over anyone who followed. That's what makes Ryan Day's inaugural season as OSU coach all the more amazing -- the Buckeyes have looked more focused, less panicked and more well-rounded than any team Meyer had, and that's in no small part to Day. He appears to have the credentials to keep Ohio State among the nation's elite for the foreseeable future, but he's worried most about the immediate future. Namely facing Clemson. Day knows how difficult it will be to take down the champs, but it isn't as if the Buckeyes are lacking in talent. They have the best defensive player in FBS in DE Chase Young, who will either harass Trevor Lawrence or will be double teamed routinely, allowing a teammate to wreak havoc. The Buckeyes have strength on the back end, and will need to jam Clemson's giant receivers off the line. If they allow the hands guys to run free it's over. Justin Fields has been extremely resourceful with the football, throwing just one interception all season. He'll be pressured like never before by Clemson DC Brent Venables, so Day will need to have his screen and short passing plays dialed up. Hit a few of those and the pressure stops, which could open up rushing lanes for JK Dobbins. If Ohio State's sometimes shaky offensive line can hold up against Clemson's blitz packages it will have success. But that may be easier said than done.
CLEMSON TIGERS
BOWL RECORD: 24-20
BOWL RECORD vs Ohio State: 3-0
RECORD vs Ohio State: 3-0
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: 3 (1981/2016/2018)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 62
RUSHING OFFENSE: 6.08 YPC (1ST)
PASSING OFFENSE: 8.61 YPA (19TH)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.26 YPP (4TH)
SCORING OFFENSE: 46.5 (4TH)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.618 (4TH)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.461 (5TH)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 47.44 (14TH)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 75.00 (T-9TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 88 (7TH)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.031 (T-5TH)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 2.95 YPC (8TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 5.13 YPA (1ST)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 3.91 YPP (1ST)
SCORING DEFENSE: 10.6 (1ST)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.166 (1ST)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION: 0.822 (1ST)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 30.81 (13TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 40.00 (T-5TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 28 (1ST)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.104 (6TH)
TURNOVER MARGIN: +14 (T-6TH)
WHAT TO LOOK FOR ON OFFENSE
Facing Clemson is truly a "pick your poison" scenario for defensive coordinators. Do you focus on stopping Trevor Lawrence and his absurdly accurate deep ball skill, which means Travis Etienne will have room to run? Or do you load up to stop Etienne and have Lawrence beat you over the top? These are questions that have likely kept OSU DC Jeff Hafley up nights, but considering how much Ohio State has improved its defense from 2018 it's quite possible he has a few surprises up his sleeve. Clemson loves to play fast and attack, and Etienne is as dangerous as they come in open space. He has great speed, but is also adept at forcing missed tackles. If he gets free he's gone. The Tigers wideouts are 6-4, 6-4 and 6-5 across the line, and have speed to go with their imposing size. Add in the return of TE Braden Galloway, who can stretch the middle of the field, and you see that Ohio State has its hands full. Clemson's offensive line has been very good, but offers a ray of hope for OSU -- Lawrence has struggled when a dominant defensive end has beaten his tackles, so you can bet the Tigers will be tracking Chase Young on every play. Look for OSU to employ Young in more different looks than at any time this season -- stand up end, inside to utilize his quickness advantage, with his hand down on both sides of the formation. If Clemson can handle him without help from a running back or tight end it will be sitting pretty, and the entire playbook will be open. Lawrence processes information like a veteran, so he's not going to be thrown when Ohio State switches from its base to nickel to dime.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR ON DEFENSE
The Tigers still create pressure, but not as effortlessly as they did last season with their all-world defensive front. Freshman DT Tyler Davis has been a revelation, though, and will battle with OSU All-America guard Wyatt Davis. There has been a lot more three-man fronts in 2019, which has allowed the linebacking corps to bring more heat. Last season they were more assistants, but this year they have been right in the middle of things. Isaiah Simmons is the man who makes the linebacking corps hum, being employed all over the field. He's physical enough to take on lineman as an edge rusher and fast enough to play coverage on receivers. His versatility is a huge part of why Clemson's defense is so good, but he's just one part. Brent Venables has employed more different packages this season, to best take advantage of his personnel. He'll blitz from all levels, and his players are seldom out of position because they understand their roles. They don't try to do too much because they know the guy next to them has his responsibility handled. The Tigers secondary has been more aggressive this season, which has resulted in more interceptions. AJ Terrell is the standout, but safeties K'Von Wallace and Tanner Muse won all-league honors and are equally adept against the run or the pass. The Tigers have relied mostly on their time-tested Cover 4, one reason they have given up the fewest explosive plays in FBS. The Clemson D is ridiculously athletic, so it will be a huge challenge for Ohio State to get it back on its heels. And when Clemson goes to its dime package, which puts Simmons in coverage, there is even more speed on the field.
OUTLOOK
Heavy is the head that wears the crown -- except when you're Clemson. Dabo Swinney has been telling anyone who'll listen that his team is being disrespected -- never mind that the Tigers are favored despite being a lower seed. His "aw shucks" act is wearing pretty thin, but people know why he does it. He has to get his team engaged, especially after a season in which it played almost no one. On the way to the Fiesta Bowl the Tigers were uncommonly special, showing ferocity on offense and on defense. Trevor Lawrence had eight interceptions at the seasons' midway point, and still has eight interceptions. So he's been really good the last part of the season. Clemson has a warehouse full of tall, physical receivers and the nation's most explosive runner in Etienne. If Ohio State can't corral him it's going to be a long night. Despite the loss of its entire defensive front to the NFL, the Tigers may be better as whole than last year. Simmons is a real wild card, lining up as an edge rusher, as a conventional linebacker with speed and tracking ability and as a safety in coverage. He may be the most versatile defensive player in college football, and his play will determine whether or not Clemson can contain Ohio State's variety of weapons. Don't overlook the experience factor -- all of these guys have been here before, most multiple times. They won't be rattled by the bright lights, which means they should be firing on all cylinders. The Tigers have been the nation's best program for the past three years, and a repeat national title would put them into some rarefied air. They certainly have the ability to do it.
Whether or not either is the best remains to be seen. What isn't up for debate is that these two are the most well-rounded teams in the playoff. Both the Buckeyes and Tigers are top 10 in nearly every important category, on both sides of the line of scrimmage, and each has immense talent at the quarterback position -- Justin Fields for OSU and Trevor Lawrence for Clemson. They grew up 50 miles apart in Georgia and were the top two prizes of the 2016 recruiting season, and each can make plays.
Like the other semifinal, the quarterbacks may get the most attention, but the game will come down to which teams shuts down the run game the best. Both JK Dobbins for OSU and Travis Etienne are among the top backs in the country, and whichever has the bigger night will likely be helping his team move on to the championship game.
FIESTA BOWL
(2) Ohio State (13-0) vs. (3) Clemson (13-0)
BETTING NUMBERS: Clemson -2, TOTAL 63
OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
BOWL RECORD: 24-25
BOWL RECORD vs Clemson: 0-3
RECORD vs Clemson: 0-3
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: 5 (1942/1954/1968/2002/2014)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 14
RUSHING OFFENSE: 5.67 YPC (6TH)
PASSING OFFENSE: 9.34 YPA (9TH)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.02 YPP (5TH)
SCORING OFFENSE: 48.7 (1ST)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.643 (3RD)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.981 (1ST)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 56.97 (1ST)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 81.94 (3RD)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 91 (5TH)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.079 (T-94TH)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 2,82 YPC (6TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 5.35 YPA (2ND)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 3.93 YPP (2ND)
SCORING DEFENSE: 12.5 (T-2ND)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.199 (3RD)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION: 0.976 (2ND)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 28.65 (4TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 39.29 (4TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 38 (T-7TH)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.122 (1ST)
TURNOVER MARGIN: +11 (T-9TH)
WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON OFFENSE
Justin Fields gets all the headlines, but JK Dobbins is the guy who truly makes this offense go. The junior has run like a man on a mission all season, showing equal parts power and elusiveness. His ability to get skinny in the hole and jump cut in space will challenge Clemson's athletic but sometimes overaggressive front seven, and he has the ability to take it to the house. Fields hasn't seen a defense this good all season, especially on the back end. He may need to run the ball more than he wants to, and it's unknown how effective he'll be as he's worked in practice with a brace on his left knee. He said in press conferences that he was around 85 percent, but teammates claim he has looked close to full speed. A mobile Fields will put much more pressure on Clemson to get home. Look for the Buckeyes to employ more underneath passing as its unlikely to find much open downfield against Clemson's sticky coverage. The Buckeyes offensive line has been a force in the run game, but has also shown a susceptibility to blitzes -- and that's what Clemson DC Brent Venables loves. He brings heat from all angles, and has involved the linebackers more this year than in previous seasons. If the Buckeyes can't hold up in the trenches it could be a very long night, another reason it might be a good idea to play a lot of 10 personnel and use the quick passing game.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON DEFENSE
It's fair to say Ohio State's offense hasn't seen defensive skill like it will see in Clemson, but the same is true for Clemson's offense -- there isn't a group in the ACC that has the athletes to hold up against the Tigers, but the Buckeyes have them at every level. DC Jeff Hafley has been a miracle worker repairing Ohio State's defense, which was top five in most important categories. Chase Young grabs the headlines, and with good reason. He led the nation in sacks despite missing two games, and has played his best on the biggest stage. If Clemson decides to be brave and block him with just a single lineman, Young should shine. The rest of the line has been good, too, staying true to its gap control principles. That's a big reason why Ohio State has been so much better against the run -- it's scheme and principles allow guys to get upfield. The Buckeyes linebacking corps is good but not great, but has shown more physicality than recent groups. They can all hit, but Clemson's speed will present problems. It's the back end where the most fascinating battles will take place. Jeff Okudah has the size and skill to shut down any of Clemson's receivers, and Damon Arnette on the other side isn't far behind. The X-factor is Shaun Wade, who has been great covering slot guys and has unusual instincts for the football. A healthy Wade means the Buckeyes can move their sets up front and be selective in their blitzes. The Buckeyes have employed a single-high safety look for most of the season, and its paid off as few teams have been able to hit big plays. Simple has been better this year, so don't look for the Buckeyes to change very much at this stage.
OUTLOOK
Conventional wisdom said the Buckeyes would take a step back after Urban Meyer walked away from the coaching profession. The man was ridiculously successful in his time in Columbus, and cast a large shadow over anyone who followed. That's what makes Ryan Day's inaugural season as OSU coach all the more amazing -- the Buckeyes have looked more focused, less panicked and more well-rounded than any team Meyer had, and that's in no small part to Day. He appears to have the credentials to keep Ohio State among the nation's elite for the foreseeable future, but he's worried most about the immediate future. Namely facing Clemson. Day knows how difficult it will be to take down the champs, but it isn't as if the Buckeyes are lacking in talent. They have the best defensive player in FBS in DE Chase Young, who will either harass Trevor Lawrence or will be double teamed routinely, allowing a teammate to wreak havoc. The Buckeyes have strength on the back end, and will need to jam Clemson's giant receivers off the line. If they allow the hands guys to run free it's over. Justin Fields has been extremely resourceful with the football, throwing just one interception all season. He'll be pressured like never before by Clemson DC Brent Venables, so Day will need to have his screen and short passing plays dialed up. Hit a few of those and the pressure stops, which could open up rushing lanes for JK Dobbins. If Ohio State's sometimes shaky offensive line can hold up against Clemson's blitz packages it will have success. But that may be easier said than done.
CLEMSON TIGERS
BOWL RECORD: 24-20
BOWL RECORD vs Ohio State: 3-0
RECORD vs Ohio State: 3-0
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: 3 (1981/2016/2018)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 62
RUSHING OFFENSE: 6.08 YPC (1ST)
PASSING OFFENSE: 8.61 YPA (19TH)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.26 YPP (4TH)
SCORING OFFENSE: 46.5 (4TH)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.618 (4TH)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.461 (5TH)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 47.44 (14TH)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 75.00 (T-9TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 88 (7TH)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.031 (T-5TH)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 2.95 YPC (8TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 5.13 YPA (1ST)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 3.91 YPP (1ST)
SCORING DEFENSE: 10.6 (1ST)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.166 (1ST)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION: 0.822 (1ST)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 30.81 (13TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 40.00 (T-5TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 28 (1ST)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.104 (6TH)
TURNOVER MARGIN: +14 (T-6TH)
WHAT TO LOOK FOR ON OFFENSE
Facing Clemson is truly a "pick your poison" scenario for defensive coordinators. Do you focus on stopping Trevor Lawrence and his absurdly accurate deep ball skill, which means Travis Etienne will have room to run? Or do you load up to stop Etienne and have Lawrence beat you over the top? These are questions that have likely kept OSU DC Jeff Hafley up nights, but considering how much Ohio State has improved its defense from 2018 it's quite possible he has a few surprises up his sleeve. Clemson loves to play fast and attack, and Etienne is as dangerous as they come in open space. He has great speed, but is also adept at forcing missed tackles. If he gets free he's gone. The Tigers wideouts are 6-4, 6-4 and 6-5 across the line, and have speed to go with their imposing size. Add in the return of TE Braden Galloway, who can stretch the middle of the field, and you see that Ohio State has its hands full. Clemson's offensive line has been very good, but offers a ray of hope for OSU -- Lawrence has struggled when a dominant defensive end has beaten his tackles, so you can bet the Tigers will be tracking Chase Young on every play. Look for OSU to employ Young in more different looks than at any time this season -- stand up end, inside to utilize his quickness advantage, with his hand down on both sides of the formation. If Clemson can handle him without help from a running back or tight end it will be sitting pretty, and the entire playbook will be open. Lawrence processes information like a veteran, so he's not going to be thrown when Ohio State switches from its base to nickel to dime.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR ON DEFENSE
The Tigers still create pressure, but not as effortlessly as they did last season with their all-world defensive front. Freshman DT Tyler Davis has been a revelation, though, and will battle with OSU All-America guard Wyatt Davis. There has been a lot more three-man fronts in 2019, which has allowed the linebacking corps to bring more heat. Last season they were more assistants, but this year they have been right in the middle of things. Isaiah Simmons is the man who makes the linebacking corps hum, being employed all over the field. He's physical enough to take on lineman as an edge rusher and fast enough to play coverage on receivers. His versatility is a huge part of why Clemson's defense is so good, but he's just one part. Brent Venables has employed more different packages this season, to best take advantage of his personnel. He'll blitz from all levels, and his players are seldom out of position because they understand their roles. They don't try to do too much because they know the guy next to them has his responsibility handled. The Tigers secondary has been more aggressive this season, which has resulted in more interceptions. AJ Terrell is the standout, but safeties K'Von Wallace and Tanner Muse won all-league honors and are equally adept against the run or the pass. The Tigers have relied mostly on their time-tested Cover 4, one reason they have given up the fewest explosive plays in FBS. The Clemson D is ridiculously athletic, so it will be a huge challenge for Ohio State to get it back on its heels. And when Clemson goes to its dime package, which puts Simmons in coverage, there is even more speed on the field.
OUTLOOK
Heavy is the head that wears the crown -- except when you're Clemson. Dabo Swinney has been telling anyone who'll listen that his team is being disrespected -- never mind that the Tigers are favored despite being a lower seed. His "aw shucks" act is wearing pretty thin, but people know why he does it. He has to get his team engaged, especially after a season in which it played almost no one. On the way to the Fiesta Bowl the Tigers were uncommonly special, showing ferocity on offense and on defense. Trevor Lawrence had eight interceptions at the seasons' midway point, and still has eight interceptions. So he's been really good the last part of the season. Clemson has a warehouse full of tall, physical receivers and the nation's most explosive runner in Etienne. If Ohio State can't corral him it's going to be a long night. Despite the loss of its entire defensive front to the NFL, the Tigers may be better as whole than last year. Simmons is a real wild card, lining up as an edge rusher, as a conventional linebacker with speed and tracking ability and as a safety in coverage. He may be the most versatile defensive player in college football, and his play will determine whether or not Clemson can contain Ohio State's variety of weapons. Don't overlook the experience factor -- all of these guys have been here before, most multiple times. They won't be rattled by the bright lights, which means they should be firing on all cylinders. The Tigers have been the nation's best program for the past three years, and a repeat national title would put them into some rarefied air. They certainly have the ability to do it.
CFB Focus Peach Bowl Preview
People have been quick to crown LSU as national champions even before the College Football Playoff matchup with Oklahoma was announced, and while the Tigers have put up video game offensive numbers they aren't just going to waltz over an experienced Sooners squad looking for respect.
LSU coach Ed Orgeron has gone from the guy no one wanted to one of the most lovable and best coaches in the game, and Sooners coach Lincoln Riley has proven himself to be one of the most adept offensive minds in all of football. The Tigers have never been in the CFP, while Oklahoma is making its third appearance and looking for its first victory.
The Tigers should feel more at home in Atlanta, though Sooners quarterback Jalen Hurts is more than familiar with Atlanta from his time at Alabama. While most fans will be watching Hurts and his opposite, Heisman winner Joe Burrow, the game will be decided by defense and which team runs the ball better.
LSU wants to spread Oklahoma out and score quickly, while Sooners will want to use long, methodical, physical drives and keep the ball away from the Tigers shiny offense.
PEACH BOWL
(1) LSU (13-0) vs. (4) Oklahoma (12-1)
BETTING NUMBERS: LSU -13.5, TOTAL 76
LSU TIGERS
BOWL RECORD: 26-23-1
BOWL RECORD vs Oklahoma: 1-1
RECORD vs Oklahoma: 1-1
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: 3 (1958/2003/2007)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 15
RUSHING OFFENSE: 4.96 YPC (23RD)
PASSING OFFENSE: 10.25 YPA (6TH)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.70 YPP (T-2ND)
SCORING OFFENSE: 47.8 (3RD)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.649 (2ND)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.767 (3RD)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 50.63 (6TH)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 76.92 (8TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 93 (3RD)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.059 (T-61ST)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 3.70 YPC (30TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 6.48 YPA (T-19TH)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 5.09 YPP (27TH)
SCORING DEFENSE: 21.2 (25TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.319 (T-24TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION: 1.633 (T-17TH)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 30.16 (10TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 58.82 (60TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 55 (T-52ND)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.073 (T-36TH)
TURNOVER MARGIN: +8 (T-15TH)
WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON OFFENSE
An aggressive, all-out attack on a Sooners defense that was improved but still pretty average, especially on the back end. Joe Burrow has shattered all existing passing records at LSU, and is deadly accurate with the football, even when pressured. He has a riverboat gambler attitude and is seemingly unflappable, so the Sooners are going to have to hope that he's a little too hyper and sails some passes early. Lead runner Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been banged up and may not be 100 percent, and he brings tenacity and burst to the Tigers ground attack. If he's limited or can't play then freshman Tyrion Davis-Price will be in the spotlight. The receiving corps is dazzling, led by All-America Ja'Marr Chase. He's blessed with outstanding speed and hands, but he's not alone. Justin Jefferson and Terrace Marshall each have double digit touchdowns, and tight end Thaddeus Moss has become a more utilized weapon late in the season. The addition of Joe Brady as passing game coordinator has done wonders for previously stodgy LSU. The Tigers don't get fancy with formations, they simply put the onus on the quarterback to make sound decisions and deliver the football. They also aren't afraid to take deep shots, leading the nation in pass plays of 20+ yards with 73. Whether against base or nickel, LSU has been nearly unstoppable, and there doesn't appear to be any indication of that changing here. If Oklahoma blitzes, Burrow will adjust and throw a slant or cross over the middle, and if the Sooners simply play zone on the back end Burrow will have too many weapons and open space to deal the football.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON DEFENSE
LSU hasn't had any true beasts up front, though Chaisson has been a force as an edge rusher. Aranda is aggressive with his front, and emphasizes getting into the backfield to create havoc. He has loosened the reins and is no longer afraid to stunt or loop up front. The linebackers are a strength, and have speed and power to spare. Patrick Queen and Jacob Phillips have been the difference-makers, and are among the Tigers leaders in tackles for loss. The LBs have taken to being more patient this year, where in previous seasons they would be the tone setters and be all over the place. There is something to being gap sound, and Aranda has gotten that group to buy in. It's helped that LSU has been able to stick with its favored Cover 1, thanks to the sticky man-to-man ability of Stingley Jr and Fulton. The former was only the best freshman defensive player in America, and the latter exhibited solid tackling as well as an ability to find the football (12 PBU). While Grant Delpit hasn't been as good as he was the last two seasons, fellow safety JaCoby Stevens has thrived in nickel and dime packages. Oklahoma's receivers will be a test for LSU, but the Tigers appear to have the personnel to hold up.
OUTLOOK
For years it was a tough-as-nails defense that guided LSU, with an offense that often kept the Tigers from achieving loftier heights. This year it's reversed, though the defense isn't exactly bad -- it's just not up to Dave Aranda standards. There have been a lot of injuries, but LSU has gotten healthy late in the year which has really helped the back seven. Linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson has been a beast, and in Derek Stingley and Kristian Fulton LSU has a corner tandem that many feel is the best in the country. LSU has been had on the deep ball more often than usual, so it's possible that Oklahoma takes some shots down the deep middle. Offensively, LSU is a mismatch for the Sooners defense. Blitzing will be high because OU doesn't have the athletes to hang with LSU's myriad weapons. Burrow may get hit, but won't get rattled, and has the rare distinction of being the nation's top rated passer with both a clean pocket AND with pressure. You don't see that very often. The Tigers will let it all hang out, so unless they turn the ball over a ton -- and considering there were five games without a turnover that could be wishful thinking on the part of the Sooners. Brady has taken LSU from its traditional 21 personnel to an RPO scheme, with more 10 and 11 personnel -- which he isn't afraid to run out of.
OKLAHOMA SOONERS
BOWL RECORD: 26-23-1
BOWL RECORD vs LSU: 1-1
RECORD vs LSU: 1-1
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: 7 (1950/1955/1956/1974/1975/1985/2000)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 18
RUSHING OFFENSE: 5.94 YPC (4TH)
PASSING OFFENSE: 11.09 YPA (3RD)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.94 YPP (1ST)
SCORING OFFENSE: 43.2 (6TH)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.604 (5TH)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.612 (4TH)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 50.70 (5TH)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 69.57 (28TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 104 (1ST)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.059 (T-61ST)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 4.10 YPC (T-54TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 6.67 YPA (29TH)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 5.29 YPP (35TH)
SCORING DEFENSE: 24.5 (T-4TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.408 (T-66TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION:2.158 (55TH)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 30.12 (9TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 62.79 (T-79TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 62 (T-87TH)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.087 (T-17TH)
TURNOVER MARGIN: -7 (T-109TH)
WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON OFFENSE
Lincoln Riley has shown himself to be a master offense technician, tweaking his offense to his personnel. This year the Sooners have become a more physical, downhill rush team, led by QB Jalen Hurts. He lacks the arm talent of predecessors Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, so Riley decided to lean more on the ground game this season. Hurts and Kennedy Brooks have been an outstanding 1-2 punch, and both could get more work than usual with backup Rhamondre Stevenson serving a suspension. The best defense for the Sooners could be a ground-heavy attack, which controls the clock and keeps Burrow and crew on the sideline. LSU is likely to blitz more than usual, so the Sooners may be able to hit some big plays, especially on counters and draws. When OU has to go to the air, it will be CeeDee Lamb who answers the call. One of the the best all-around talents in the game, Lamb is a proficient route runner, has strong hands and is deadly in the open field. His battle with Stingley is one to watch. The Sooners have a cadre of receivers who will need to step up if Lamb is neutralized, and the top candidate is Charleston Rambo. Hurts has more experience in big situations than any quarterback in the playoffs, and he has shown himself to be cool under fire. If any player can carry a team on his back, it's Hurts.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON DEFENSE
The Sooners may not be great yet on defense, but they have definitely improved over last year. Gone are the read and react looks, in favor of a more aggressive mindset. Alex Grinch definitely shook up the unit in his first season as coordinator, favoring a one-gap approach that has the defense shooting through gaps into the backfield. It's important to play assignment football in this scheme, and the Sooners have for the most part done that. Neville Gallimore has been a big-time run stuffer inside, and LB Kenneth Murray has been much more disciplined this year while still leading the team in tackles. Last year he roamed free, this year he was asked to play more assignment football -- which included some coverage responsibilities. The hope is that the defense creates enough negative plays to offset the occasional home run play it allows. LSU uses a lot of 10 and 11 personnel on offense, so don't be surprised if the Sooners employ dime personnel in obvious passing situations. That means Murray and Nick Bonitto could be asked to drop into coverage or maybe rush the passer. Two-high safeties will attempt to minimize damage on vertical routes. Parnell Motley has been excellent in coverage this season and may be asked to shadow Chase. But that still leaves Jefferson and Marshall as tough matchups, ones that Oklahoma probably won't win very often.
OUTLOOK
The Sooners are the biggest underdog in the playoff field, so they really have nothing to lose. Expect OU to come out loose, unintimidated and ready to play. There should be a steady diet of Hurts and Brooks, and if the ground game works early it will help set up some downfield shots to Lamb and his mates. If Oklahoma gets into a situation where it has to pass to win, things won't be pretty. Getting Lamb in space -- on jet sweeps, tunnel screens and slants -- is imperative as he is the X-factor for Oklahoma, a player LSU must account for on every down. A plan that limits deep throws and forces LSU to execute consistently could keep Oklahoma in the contest, and if the teams go into the fourth quarter in a tight contest, are you going to bet against Jalen Hurts?
LSU coach Ed Orgeron has gone from the guy no one wanted to one of the most lovable and best coaches in the game, and Sooners coach Lincoln Riley has proven himself to be one of the most adept offensive minds in all of football. The Tigers have never been in the CFP, while Oklahoma is making its third appearance and looking for its first victory.
The Tigers should feel more at home in Atlanta, though Sooners quarterback Jalen Hurts is more than familiar with Atlanta from his time at Alabama. While most fans will be watching Hurts and his opposite, Heisman winner Joe Burrow, the game will be decided by defense and which team runs the ball better.
LSU wants to spread Oklahoma out and score quickly, while Sooners will want to use long, methodical, physical drives and keep the ball away from the Tigers shiny offense.
PEACH BOWL
(1) LSU (13-0) vs. (4) Oklahoma (12-1)
BETTING NUMBERS: LSU -13.5, TOTAL 76
LSU TIGERS
BOWL RECORD: 26-23-1
BOWL RECORD vs Oklahoma: 1-1
RECORD vs Oklahoma: 1-1
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: 3 (1958/2003/2007)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 15
RUSHING OFFENSE: 4.96 YPC (23RD)
PASSING OFFENSE: 10.25 YPA (6TH)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.70 YPP (T-2ND)
SCORING OFFENSE: 47.8 (3RD)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.649 (2ND)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.767 (3RD)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 50.63 (6TH)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 76.92 (8TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 93 (3RD)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.059 (T-61ST)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 3.70 YPC (30TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 6.48 YPA (T-19TH)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 5.09 YPP (27TH)
SCORING DEFENSE: 21.2 (25TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.319 (T-24TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION: 1.633 (T-17TH)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 30.16 (10TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 58.82 (60TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 55 (T-52ND)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.073 (T-36TH)
TURNOVER MARGIN: +8 (T-15TH)
WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON OFFENSE
An aggressive, all-out attack on a Sooners defense that was improved but still pretty average, especially on the back end. Joe Burrow has shattered all existing passing records at LSU, and is deadly accurate with the football, even when pressured. He has a riverboat gambler attitude and is seemingly unflappable, so the Sooners are going to have to hope that he's a little too hyper and sails some passes early. Lead runner Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been banged up and may not be 100 percent, and he brings tenacity and burst to the Tigers ground attack. If he's limited or can't play then freshman Tyrion Davis-Price will be in the spotlight. The receiving corps is dazzling, led by All-America Ja'Marr Chase. He's blessed with outstanding speed and hands, but he's not alone. Justin Jefferson and Terrace Marshall each have double digit touchdowns, and tight end Thaddeus Moss has become a more utilized weapon late in the season. The addition of Joe Brady as passing game coordinator has done wonders for previously stodgy LSU. The Tigers don't get fancy with formations, they simply put the onus on the quarterback to make sound decisions and deliver the football. They also aren't afraid to take deep shots, leading the nation in pass plays of 20+ yards with 73. Whether against base or nickel, LSU has been nearly unstoppable, and there doesn't appear to be any indication of that changing here. If Oklahoma blitzes, Burrow will adjust and throw a slant or cross over the middle, and if the Sooners simply play zone on the back end Burrow will have too many weapons and open space to deal the football.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON DEFENSE
LSU hasn't had any true beasts up front, though Chaisson has been a force as an edge rusher. Aranda is aggressive with his front, and emphasizes getting into the backfield to create havoc. He has loosened the reins and is no longer afraid to stunt or loop up front. The linebackers are a strength, and have speed and power to spare. Patrick Queen and Jacob Phillips have been the difference-makers, and are among the Tigers leaders in tackles for loss. The LBs have taken to being more patient this year, where in previous seasons they would be the tone setters and be all over the place. There is something to being gap sound, and Aranda has gotten that group to buy in. It's helped that LSU has been able to stick with its favored Cover 1, thanks to the sticky man-to-man ability of Stingley Jr and Fulton. The former was only the best freshman defensive player in America, and the latter exhibited solid tackling as well as an ability to find the football (12 PBU). While Grant Delpit hasn't been as good as he was the last two seasons, fellow safety JaCoby Stevens has thrived in nickel and dime packages. Oklahoma's receivers will be a test for LSU, but the Tigers appear to have the personnel to hold up.
OUTLOOK
For years it was a tough-as-nails defense that guided LSU, with an offense that often kept the Tigers from achieving loftier heights. This year it's reversed, though the defense isn't exactly bad -- it's just not up to Dave Aranda standards. There have been a lot of injuries, but LSU has gotten healthy late in the year which has really helped the back seven. Linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson has been a beast, and in Derek Stingley and Kristian Fulton LSU has a corner tandem that many feel is the best in the country. LSU has been had on the deep ball more often than usual, so it's possible that Oklahoma takes some shots down the deep middle. Offensively, LSU is a mismatch for the Sooners defense. Blitzing will be high because OU doesn't have the athletes to hang with LSU's myriad weapons. Burrow may get hit, but won't get rattled, and has the rare distinction of being the nation's top rated passer with both a clean pocket AND with pressure. You don't see that very often. The Tigers will let it all hang out, so unless they turn the ball over a ton -- and considering there were five games without a turnover that could be wishful thinking on the part of the Sooners. Brady has taken LSU from its traditional 21 personnel to an RPO scheme, with more 10 and 11 personnel -- which he isn't afraid to run out of.
OKLAHOMA SOONERS
BOWL RECORD: 26-23-1
BOWL RECORD vs LSU: 1-1
RECORD vs LSU: 1-1
AP/BCS/CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: 7 (1950/1955/1956/1974/1975/1985/2000)
JEFF SAGARIN SOS: 18
RUSHING OFFENSE: 5.94 YPC (4TH)
PASSING OFFENSE: 11.09 YPA (3RD)
TOTAL OFFENSE: 7.94 YPP (1ST)
SCORING OFFENSE: 43.2 (6TH)
POINTS PER PLAY: 0.604 (5TH)
POINTS PER POSSESSION: 3.612 (4TH)
THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 50.70 (5TH)
RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 69.57 (28TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS: 104 (1ST)
TIMES SACKED PER ATTEMPT: 0.059 (T-61ST)
RUSHING DEFENSE: 4.10 YPC (T-54TH)
PASSING DEFENSE: 6.67 YPA (29TH)
TOTAL DEFENSE: 5.29 YPP (35TH)
SCORING DEFENSE: 24.5 (T-4TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER PLAY: 0.408 (T-66TH)
POINTS ALLOWED PER POSSESSION:2.158 (55TH)
OPP THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS: 30.12 (9TH)
OPP RED ZONE TD PERCENTAGE: 62.79 (T-79TH)
PLAYS OF 20+ YARDS ALLOWED: 62 (T-87TH)
SACKS PER ATTEMPT: 0.087 (T-17TH)
TURNOVER MARGIN: -7 (T-109TH)
WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON OFFENSE
Lincoln Riley has shown himself to be a master offense technician, tweaking his offense to his personnel. This year the Sooners have become a more physical, downhill rush team, led by QB Jalen Hurts. He lacks the arm talent of predecessors Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray, so Riley decided to lean more on the ground game this season. Hurts and Kennedy Brooks have been an outstanding 1-2 punch, and both could get more work than usual with backup Rhamondre Stevenson serving a suspension. The best defense for the Sooners could be a ground-heavy attack, which controls the clock and keeps Burrow and crew on the sideline. LSU is likely to blitz more than usual, so the Sooners may be able to hit some big plays, especially on counters and draws. When OU has to go to the air, it will be CeeDee Lamb who answers the call. One of the the best all-around talents in the game, Lamb is a proficient route runner, has strong hands and is deadly in the open field. His battle with Stingley is one to watch. The Sooners have a cadre of receivers who will need to step up if Lamb is neutralized, and the top candidate is Charleston Rambo. Hurts has more experience in big situations than any quarterback in the playoffs, and he has shown himself to be cool under fire. If any player can carry a team on his back, it's Hurts.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR ON DEFENSE
The Sooners may not be great yet on defense, but they have definitely improved over last year. Gone are the read and react looks, in favor of a more aggressive mindset. Alex Grinch definitely shook up the unit in his first season as coordinator, favoring a one-gap approach that has the defense shooting through gaps into the backfield. It's important to play assignment football in this scheme, and the Sooners have for the most part done that. Neville Gallimore has been a big-time run stuffer inside, and LB Kenneth Murray has been much more disciplined this year while still leading the team in tackles. Last year he roamed free, this year he was asked to play more assignment football -- which included some coverage responsibilities. The hope is that the defense creates enough negative plays to offset the occasional home run play it allows. LSU uses a lot of 10 and 11 personnel on offense, so don't be surprised if the Sooners employ dime personnel in obvious passing situations. That means Murray and Nick Bonitto could be asked to drop into coverage or maybe rush the passer. Two-high safeties will attempt to minimize damage on vertical routes. Parnell Motley has been excellent in coverage this season and may be asked to shadow Chase. But that still leaves Jefferson and Marshall as tough matchups, ones that Oklahoma probably won't win very often.
OUTLOOK
The Sooners are the biggest underdog in the playoff field, so they really have nothing to lose. Expect OU to come out loose, unintimidated and ready to play. There should be a steady diet of Hurts and Brooks, and if the ground game works early it will help set up some downfield shots to Lamb and his mates. If Oklahoma gets into a situation where it has to pass to win, things won't be pretty. Getting Lamb in space -- on jet sweeps, tunnel screens and slants -- is imperative as he is the X-factor for Oklahoma, a player LSU must account for on every down. A plan that limits deep throws and forces LSU to execute consistently could keep Oklahoma in the contest, and if the teams go into the fourth quarter in a tight contest, are you going to bet against Jalen Hurts?
CFB Focus Bowl Preview -- Dec. 28
Lost amid all of the hoopla for the College Football Playoff is the fact that there are two other games being played today. They may not have the same kind of implications as the semifinals, but they do have big names attempting to gain one more win and head into the offseason on a high note.
One personal aside -- while I enjoy the drama of the CFP, it's still a little disappointing that Cotton Bowl isn't part of New Year's Day. Growing up, I always enjoyed knowing that we had the big four games -- Cotton, Rose, Sugar and Orange, and if I was ever made college football czar I would go back to putting them all on New Year's Day, provided they weren't hosting CFP semifinals that year.
CAMPING WORLD BOWL (12 pm, Orlando)
Notre Dame (10-2) vs Iowa State (7-5)
WHY TO WATCH: Can Notre Dame end finish on the plus side of .500 in bowl games this decade? A win here would do it. Iowa State is 21 points from being unbeaten and has to feel that it can hang with the Irish, especially since it lost by one to Iowa and Oklahoma and by two to Baylor. This is the first-ever meeting between the teams, but the Irish are 3-1 in bowl games vs current Big 12 members. The Cyclones don't only play tight games in the regular season, as five of their last seven bowl appearances have been decided by four points or less. The Irish will be led by quarterback Ian Book, who didn't put up a ton of yards but was excellent at valuing the football (only six interceptions). Notre Dame has a little more margin for error should its offense not fire as the defense is top 15 nationally and fourth in turnover margin. So the Irish have been good at limited opponents possessions. The Cyclones are solid on D, but have given up their share of big plays. Brock Purdy is a standout at quarterback but will be challenged by a Notre Dame defense that has allowed just 13 touchdowns and ranks fifth in opponent passer rating. That may mean more work for freshman running back Breece Hall.
BOWL RECORDS: Notre Dame 18-19, Iowa State 4-10
BETTING NUMBERS: Notre Dame -3.5, Total 54.5
COTTON BOWL (12 pm, Dallas)
Memphis (12-1) vs Penn State (10-2)
WHY TO WATCH: The country's best G5 program tries to take down a traditional power from the Big Ten, and both sides have a ton of speed and playmakers. So it has the potential to be a score-fest. Memphis is 0-3 in bowl games against Power 5 programs, but has lost its last two by a combined four points. The Tigers offense is top 10 nationally and features Kenneth Gainwell in the backfield and Antonio Gibson and Damontie Coxie out wide. All three are difference makers, as is quarterback Brady White, who tossed 33 TDs while stretching the field to the tune of 9.6 YPA. Gibson is also one of the most dangerous return men in America, and could give the Tigers a field position advantage. The Nittany Lions weren't nearly as explosive on offense this season as in previous years, but do have home run threats in RB Journey Brown and WR/RS KJ Hamler. If Penn State's offense is to have success QB Sean Clifford must throw better than he has this season (59.5 completion percentage). PSU's D has been nails most of the season, ranking in the top 10 in total and scoring defense, but has allowed 39 pass plays of 20+ yards. Penn State has dropped five of its last seven bowl games but is unbeaten in three Cotton Bowl appearances (2-0-1). The Nittany Lions were humiliated in their lone bowl showdown against a G5 team, losing 30-14 to Houston in the 2012 Ticket City Bowl.
BOWL RECORDS: Memphis 4-7, Penn State 29-18-2
BETTING NUMBERS: Penn State -7, Total 60.5
One personal aside -- while I enjoy the drama of the CFP, it's still a little disappointing that Cotton Bowl isn't part of New Year's Day. Growing up, I always enjoyed knowing that we had the big four games -- Cotton, Rose, Sugar and Orange, and if I was ever made college football czar I would go back to putting them all on New Year's Day, provided they weren't hosting CFP semifinals that year.
CAMPING WORLD BOWL (12 pm, Orlando)
Notre Dame (10-2) vs Iowa State (7-5)
WHY TO WATCH: Can Notre Dame end finish on the plus side of .500 in bowl games this decade? A win here would do it. Iowa State is 21 points from being unbeaten and has to feel that it can hang with the Irish, especially since it lost by one to Iowa and Oklahoma and by two to Baylor. This is the first-ever meeting between the teams, but the Irish are 3-1 in bowl games vs current Big 12 members. The Cyclones don't only play tight games in the regular season, as five of their last seven bowl appearances have been decided by four points or less. The Irish will be led by quarterback Ian Book, who didn't put up a ton of yards but was excellent at valuing the football (only six interceptions). Notre Dame has a little more margin for error should its offense not fire as the defense is top 15 nationally and fourth in turnover margin. So the Irish have been good at limited opponents possessions. The Cyclones are solid on D, but have given up their share of big plays. Brock Purdy is a standout at quarterback but will be challenged by a Notre Dame defense that has allowed just 13 touchdowns and ranks fifth in opponent passer rating. That may mean more work for freshman running back Breece Hall.
BOWL RECORDS: Notre Dame 18-19, Iowa State 4-10
BETTING NUMBERS: Notre Dame -3.5, Total 54.5
COTTON BOWL (12 pm, Dallas)
Memphis (12-1) vs Penn State (10-2)
WHY TO WATCH: The country's best G5 program tries to take down a traditional power from the Big Ten, and both sides have a ton of speed and playmakers. So it has the potential to be a score-fest. Memphis is 0-3 in bowl games against Power 5 programs, but has lost its last two by a combined four points. The Tigers offense is top 10 nationally and features Kenneth Gainwell in the backfield and Antonio Gibson and Damontie Coxie out wide. All three are difference makers, as is quarterback Brady White, who tossed 33 TDs while stretching the field to the tune of 9.6 YPA. Gibson is also one of the most dangerous return men in America, and could give the Tigers a field position advantage. The Nittany Lions weren't nearly as explosive on offense this season as in previous years, but do have home run threats in RB Journey Brown and WR/RS KJ Hamler. If Penn State's offense is to have success QB Sean Clifford must throw better than he has this season (59.5 completion percentage). PSU's D has been nails most of the season, ranking in the top 10 in total and scoring defense, but has allowed 39 pass plays of 20+ yards. Penn State has dropped five of its last seven bowl games but is unbeaten in three Cotton Bowl appearances (2-0-1). The Nittany Lions were humiliated in their lone bowl showdown against a G5 team, losing 30-14 to Houston in the 2012 Ticket City Bowl.
BOWL RECORDS: Memphis 4-7, Penn State 29-18-2
BETTING NUMBERS: Penn State -7, Total 60.5
Friday, December 27, 2019
CFB Focus Bowl Preview -- Dec. 27
Today is a tasty appetizer to tomorrow's main course, and there are quite a few big names involved in action.
A couple of young teams building for next year -- North Carolina and USC -- have a chance to impress, while a pair of G5 teams look to end the season on a high note by upsetting a Power 5 foe.
MILITARY BOWL (12 p.m., Annapolis, Md.)
North Carolina (6-6) vs Temple (8-4)
WHY TO WATCH: There wasn't a ton of expectation for UNC in Mack Brown's return to Chapel Hill, so getting to a bowl game was a big time accomplishment -- especially with one of the youngest teams in college football. Freshman QB Sam Howell flashed big time potential and looks to be a nice building block for the Tar Heels. Temple was solid under first year coach Rod Carey, playing physical on defense and showing some explosiveness on offense. This could be one of the more entertaining non-NY6/CFP contests.
BOWL RECORDS: North Carolina 14-19, Temple 3-5
BETTING NUMBERS: North Carolina -5, Total 53.5
PINSTRIPE BOWL (3:20 p.m., New York City)
Michigan State (6-6) vs Wake Forest (8-4)
WHY TO WATCH: Nothing says bowl season like Yankee Stadium, right? It will be interesting to see how many fans show up to this one as the East Coast is largely the domain of pro sports. Michigan State was a disappointment this season, and you have to wonder if the time has come for MSU to move on from Mark Dantonio. Wake Forest has a top notch offense, led by QB Jamie Newman and WR Sage Surratt, but will be challenged by a Spartans D that was a top 15 unit for much of the 2019 season. Sparty has never beaten a current ACC in a bowl game, and has scored fewer than 7 points in two of their last three postseason appearances, while Wake has won five of its last six bowl games, scoring 34 or more in its last three.
BOWL RECORDS: Michigan State 12-16, Wake Forest 9-4
BETTING NUMBERS: Michigan State -3.5, Total 49.5
TEXAS BOWL (6:45 p.m., Houston)
Oklahoma State (8-4) vs Texas A&M (7-5)
WHY TO WATCH: This one could be a lot of fun as two potentially explosive offenses tangle in Texas. The Cowboys will go as far as RB Chuba Hubbard can carry them, and that could be far since he was one of the top rushers in all of college football. The Aggies showed flashes this season but could not beat the best teams on its schedule. A number of Aggies have decided to declare for the NFL, so desire could be a question mark. OSU has won its last three bowl games, scoring at least 30 points in all of them. The Aggies are 5-1 in bowl games against the Big 12, but have won just once in their last four trips to the postseason.
BOWL RECORDS: Oklahoma State 19-10, Texas A&M 18-22
BETTING NUMBERS: Texas A&M -7, Total 53.5
HOLIDAY BOWL (8 p.m., San Diego)
USC (8-4) vs Iowa (9-3)
WHY TO WATCH: Always among the more fun contests, this Big Ten/Pac 12 showdown will match USC's wide open offense against Iowa's stifling defense. The Trojans will be looking to make a statement toward 2020 and should be ready to go, while the Hawkeyes have a veteran team that lacks explosiveness on offense but can shut down the best offenses with difference-makers at each level on defense. USC has played in this game twice in the last five seasons, beating Nebraska in 2014 and losing narrowly to Wisconsin the following year. Iowa is just 2-5 in its last seven bowl games, and has gone just 2-7 vs the Pac-12 in the postseason. Iowa is 2-0-1 in three previous Holiday Bowl appearances.
BOWL RECORDS: USC 34-18, Iowa 16-15-1
BETTING NUMBERS: Iowa -2, Total 52.5
CHEEZ-IT BOWL (10:15 p.m., Phoenix)
Air Force (10-2) vs Washington State (6-6)
WHY TO WATCH: Fascinating showdown between offenses that are as different as two can be. Air Force wants to hold the football and grind opponents down with its triple option -- run ably by Donnie Hammond -- and play opportunistic defense. Wazzu is coached by Mike Leach, which means Anthony Gordon will be throwing the football all night long. There should be a lot of points here as both teams were top 25 nationally in scoring. Air Force has won two of its last three bowl games but is just 1-4 vs the Pac 12 in the postseason. Wazzu has dropped three of its last five bowl games, including a loss to Mountain West member Colorado State in the 2013 New Mexico Bowl.
BOWL RECORDS: Air Force 12-13-1, Washington State 8-7
BETTING NUMBERS: Air Force -3, Total 68.5
A couple of young teams building for next year -- North Carolina and USC -- have a chance to impress, while a pair of G5 teams look to end the season on a high note by upsetting a Power 5 foe.
MILITARY BOWL (12 p.m., Annapolis, Md.)
North Carolina (6-6) vs Temple (8-4)
WHY TO WATCH: There wasn't a ton of expectation for UNC in Mack Brown's return to Chapel Hill, so getting to a bowl game was a big time accomplishment -- especially with one of the youngest teams in college football. Freshman QB Sam Howell flashed big time potential and looks to be a nice building block for the Tar Heels. Temple was solid under first year coach Rod Carey, playing physical on defense and showing some explosiveness on offense. This could be one of the more entertaining non-NY6/CFP contests.
BOWL RECORDS: North Carolina 14-19, Temple 3-5
BETTING NUMBERS: North Carolina -5, Total 53.5
PINSTRIPE BOWL (3:20 p.m., New York City)
Michigan State (6-6) vs Wake Forest (8-4)
WHY TO WATCH: Nothing says bowl season like Yankee Stadium, right? It will be interesting to see how many fans show up to this one as the East Coast is largely the domain of pro sports. Michigan State was a disappointment this season, and you have to wonder if the time has come for MSU to move on from Mark Dantonio. Wake Forest has a top notch offense, led by QB Jamie Newman and WR Sage Surratt, but will be challenged by a Spartans D that was a top 15 unit for much of the 2019 season. Sparty has never beaten a current ACC in a bowl game, and has scored fewer than 7 points in two of their last three postseason appearances, while Wake has won five of its last six bowl games, scoring 34 or more in its last three.
BOWL RECORDS: Michigan State 12-16, Wake Forest 9-4
BETTING NUMBERS: Michigan State -3.5, Total 49.5
TEXAS BOWL (6:45 p.m., Houston)
Oklahoma State (8-4) vs Texas A&M (7-5)
WHY TO WATCH: This one could be a lot of fun as two potentially explosive offenses tangle in Texas. The Cowboys will go as far as RB Chuba Hubbard can carry them, and that could be far since he was one of the top rushers in all of college football. The Aggies showed flashes this season but could not beat the best teams on its schedule. A number of Aggies have decided to declare for the NFL, so desire could be a question mark. OSU has won its last three bowl games, scoring at least 30 points in all of them. The Aggies are 5-1 in bowl games against the Big 12, but have won just once in their last four trips to the postseason.
BOWL RECORDS: Oklahoma State 19-10, Texas A&M 18-22
BETTING NUMBERS: Texas A&M -7, Total 53.5
HOLIDAY BOWL (8 p.m., San Diego)
USC (8-4) vs Iowa (9-3)
WHY TO WATCH: Always among the more fun contests, this Big Ten/Pac 12 showdown will match USC's wide open offense against Iowa's stifling defense. The Trojans will be looking to make a statement toward 2020 and should be ready to go, while the Hawkeyes have a veteran team that lacks explosiveness on offense but can shut down the best offenses with difference-makers at each level on defense. USC has played in this game twice in the last five seasons, beating Nebraska in 2014 and losing narrowly to Wisconsin the following year. Iowa is just 2-5 in its last seven bowl games, and has gone just 2-7 vs the Pac-12 in the postseason. Iowa is 2-0-1 in three previous Holiday Bowl appearances.
BOWL RECORDS: USC 34-18, Iowa 16-15-1
BETTING NUMBERS: Iowa -2, Total 52.5
CHEEZ-IT BOWL (10:15 p.m., Phoenix)
Air Force (10-2) vs Washington State (6-6)
WHY TO WATCH: Fascinating showdown between offenses that are as different as two can be. Air Force wants to hold the football and grind opponents down with its triple option -- run ably by Donnie Hammond -- and play opportunistic defense. Wazzu is coached by Mike Leach, which means Anthony Gordon will be throwing the football all night long. There should be a lot of points here as both teams were top 25 nationally in scoring. Air Force has won two of its last three bowl games but is just 1-4 vs the Pac 12 in the postseason. Wazzu has dropped three of its last five bowl games, including a loss to Mountain West member Colorado State in the 2013 New Mexico Bowl.
BOWL RECORDS: Air Force 12-13-1, Washington State 8-7
BETTING NUMBERS: Air Force -3, Total 68.5
Thursday, December 26, 2019
CFB Focus Bowl Preview -- Dec. 26
The day after Christmas means a few things -- returning those horrible gifts you received but didn't want in the first place, taking advantage of sales with the numerous gift cards you were given, and bowl games resuming.
This is kind of the calm before the storm, games that won't really attract a ton of national attention but may yet prove to be intriguing.
INDEPENDENCE BOWL (4 p.m., Shreveport, La.)
Miami Fla (6-6) vs Louisiana Tech (9-3)
WHY TO WATCH: To see if Miami is the least bit interested. The Hurricanes have had a history of not playing well in lower-tier bowl games, winning just twice in their last 10 postseason appearances -- none of the marquee variety. The Canes lost this bowl game to South Carolina in 2014, and it wouldn't be a shock to see them go through the motions here as focus and desire have been inconsistent all season. Tech is 2-1-1 all-time in the Independence Bowl, and has won five straight bowl games. Miami has a top 15 defense, but it could be challenged by a Tech offense that's top 40 nationally, including 27th in scoring (34 ppg). The Hurricanes have scored more than 24 points just twice in their last seven games, and if they can't mount some kind of offensive attack it will be another postseason disappointment. Tech should play hard as it would love to add a big time pelt to its wall.
BOWL RECORDS: Miami 19-21, Louisiana Tech 7-3-1
BETTING NUMBERS: Miami -6, Total 49.5
QUICK LANE BOWL (8 p.m., Detroit, Mich.)
Pittsburgh (7-5) vs Eastern Michigan (6-6)
WHY TO WATCH: Pitt's classic unis, the best in college football, for one. Strength on strength for another, as Eastern Michigan loves to air it out and Pitt is lethal against the pass. It's whether the Panthers can score or not that will determine the outcome. Pitt scored 20 points or fewer in eight games this season, and every possession seems like a struggle. Eastern's defense hasn't been great so the Panthers may have more opportunities this time, but an explosion seems unlikely. Eagles QB Mike Glass III is one of the more unheralded passers in America, accounting for 29 total touchdowns and showing off a big-time arm. He's completed 80 percent of his passes the last three contests and could pose a challenge for Pitt's talented secondary. Paris Ford, Damar Hamlin and Dane Jackson all have at least one interception and nine passes defended, so accomplishing things through the air won't be easy. Pitt has lost six of its last seven bowl games, but the one win was against the MAC (Bowling Green 2013). Eastern Michigan is playing its third bowl in four seasons after appearing in just two prior to 2016, but has won just once, the 1987 California Bowl over San Jose State.
BOWL RECORDS: Pittsburgh 13-21, Eastern Michigan 1-2
BETTING NUMBERS: Pittsburgh -11, Total 49
This is kind of the calm before the storm, games that won't really attract a ton of national attention but may yet prove to be intriguing.
INDEPENDENCE BOWL (4 p.m., Shreveport, La.)
Miami Fla (6-6) vs Louisiana Tech (9-3)
WHY TO WATCH: To see if Miami is the least bit interested. The Hurricanes have had a history of not playing well in lower-tier bowl games, winning just twice in their last 10 postseason appearances -- none of the marquee variety. The Canes lost this bowl game to South Carolina in 2014, and it wouldn't be a shock to see them go through the motions here as focus and desire have been inconsistent all season. Tech is 2-1-1 all-time in the Independence Bowl, and has won five straight bowl games. Miami has a top 15 defense, but it could be challenged by a Tech offense that's top 40 nationally, including 27th in scoring (34 ppg). The Hurricanes have scored more than 24 points just twice in their last seven games, and if they can't mount some kind of offensive attack it will be another postseason disappointment. Tech should play hard as it would love to add a big time pelt to its wall.
BOWL RECORDS: Miami 19-21, Louisiana Tech 7-3-1
BETTING NUMBERS: Miami -6, Total 49.5
QUICK LANE BOWL (8 p.m., Detroit, Mich.)
Pittsburgh (7-5) vs Eastern Michigan (6-6)
WHY TO WATCH: Pitt's classic unis, the best in college football, for one. Strength on strength for another, as Eastern Michigan loves to air it out and Pitt is lethal against the pass. It's whether the Panthers can score or not that will determine the outcome. Pitt scored 20 points or fewer in eight games this season, and every possession seems like a struggle. Eastern's defense hasn't been great so the Panthers may have more opportunities this time, but an explosion seems unlikely. Eagles QB Mike Glass III is one of the more unheralded passers in America, accounting for 29 total touchdowns and showing off a big-time arm. He's completed 80 percent of his passes the last three contests and could pose a challenge for Pitt's talented secondary. Paris Ford, Damar Hamlin and Dane Jackson all have at least one interception and nine passes defended, so accomplishing things through the air won't be easy. Pitt has lost six of its last seven bowl games, but the one win was against the MAC (Bowling Green 2013). Eastern Michigan is playing its third bowl in four seasons after appearing in just two prior to 2016, but has won just once, the 1987 California Bowl over San Jose State.
BOWL RECORDS: Pittsburgh 13-21, Eastern Michigan 1-2
BETTING NUMBERS: Pittsburgh -11, Total 49
Tuesday, December 24, 2019
CFB Focus Bowl Preview -- Dec. 24
Christmas is almost upon us, which means a temporary break from bowl games. But before everyone opens their gifts and starts thinking about how quickly they can return things, there's one more game to put you in the holiday spirit.
Hawaii plays a de facto home game against BYU in the Hawaii Bowl, so enjoy the coconut trees and the numerous shots of the ocean, Don Ho and volcanoes. The announcers will do their best to make you feel bad that you're having terrible weather while they are calling the game in shorts and Hawaiian shirts.
HAWAII BOWL (8 pm, Honolulu, HI)
Hawaii (9-5) vs. Brigham Young (7-5)
WHY TO WATCH: Duh -- it's Hawaii on Christmas Eve. There will be numerous shots of coconuts, palm trees and the ocean, which should help you relax after a big afternoon of wrapping presents. The football is almost secondary, though it should be a good show from two teams who love to throw it all over the place. BYU is better and stingier on defense, but Hawaii provides a challenge to everyone it faces -- provided it gets the good version of Cole McDonald at quarterback.
BOWL RECORDS: Hawaii 6-6, BYU 15-20-1
BETTING NUMBERS: BYU -2, Total 64
Hawaii plays a de facto home game against BYU in the Hawaii Bowl, so enjoy the coconut trees and the numerous shots of the ocean, Don Ho and volcanoes. The announcers will do their best to make you feel bad that you're having terrible weather while they are calling the game in shorts and Hawaiian shirts.
HAWAII BOWL (8 pm, Honolulu, HI)
Hawaii (9-5) vs. Brigham Young (7-5)
WHY TO WATCH: Duh -- it's Hawaii on Christmas Eve. There will be numerous shots of coconuts, palm trees and the ocean, which should help you relax after a big afternoon of wrapping presents. The football is almost secondary, though it should be a good show from two teams who love to throw it all over the place. BYU is better and stingier on defense, but Hawaii provides a challenge to everyone it faces -- provided it gets the good version of Cole McDonald at quarterback.
BOWL RECORDS: Hawaii 6-6, BYU 15-20-1
BETTING NUMBERS: BYU -2, Total 64
Monday, December 23, 2019
CFB Focus Bowl Preview -- Dec. 23
Still, this game has a few interesting storylines.
GASPARILLA BOWL (2:30 pm, Tampa, Fla.)
UCF (9-3) vs. Marshall (8-4)
WHY TO WATCH: To see if the Herd can continue its amazing postseason success. Marshall has won a dozen bowl games in 14 trips, but playing UCF in the Sunshine State will be a daunting task. UCF is always entertaining, though it hasn't been quite as physical this year as in past seasons. Tune in just to see the Gabriels -- QB Dillon Gabriel and WR Gabriel Davis -- put on a show. But don't sleep on Marshall RB Brenden Knox, as he could prove to be a sneaky game changer.
BOWL RECORDS: UCF 4-6, Marshall 12-2
BETTING NUMBERS: UCF -17.5, Total 61.5
Saturday, December 21, 2019
CFB Focus Bowl Preview -- Dec. 21
Want to win a bowl trivia contest? Ask people which date has the most bowl games. They'll probably answer New Years Day, which is fairly logical. But they would be wrong. It's today, Dec. 21st -- seven bowl games on tap, all of varying important and fun.
There's an FCS tilt to lead it off, which means a great band show, a tasty P5 v G5 in Sin City and a host of G5 teams facing off for conference pride.
Here is rundown of all of today's games. Try to keep up.
CELEBRATION BOWL (12 pm, Atlanta)
Alcorn State (9-3) vs. North Carolina A&T (8-3)
WHY TO WATCH: It's the first game of a huge day of bowls, and the halftime show will be the best of any game on this year's slate. Oh, the game should be pretty competitive if you want to watch for that reason. Two very good defensive teams (both top 20 FCS in scoring D) will do battle, and the one who can make a big play here and there will win.
BETTING NUMBERS: North Carolina A&T -3, Total 51.5
NEW MEXICO BOWL (2:20 pm, Albuquerque)
San Diego State (9-3) vs Central Michigan (8-5)
WHY TO WATCH: Stellar defense vs big play offense. There's also the matter of motivation -- the Aztecs KNOW they can't play offense, and were pretty much an afterthought in the MWC despite having a veteran team. CMU made the league title game in year one under Jim McElwain and feels it still has something to prove. America will get a chance to see Aztecs defenders Kyahva Tezino and Luq Barcoo, and Chippewas RB Jonathan Ward.
BOWL RECORDS: San Diego State 5-9, Central Michigan 3-8
BETTING NUMBERS: San Diego State -3.5, Total 41
CURE BOWL (2:30 pm, Orlando)
Georgia Southern (7-5) vs Liberty (7-5)
WHY TO WATCH: Who among us doesn't love disparate offenses on display? The Eagles live by the triple option while Liberty loves to fling it all over the place. Fans who like downfield passing should love the matchup of Flames WR Antonio Gandy-Golden going against Eagles DBs Kindle Vildor and Monquavion Brinson, each of whom has an an NFL future. There's also that Hugh Freeze guy patrolling the Liberty sideline, and taking the Flames to a bowl game in year one of his image makeover.
BOWL RECORDS: Georgia Southern 2-0, Liberty first bowl appearance
BETTING NUMBERS: Georgia Southern -5, Total 58.5
BOCA RATON BOWL (3:30 pm, Boca Raton, FL)
SMU (10-2) vs FAU (10-3)
WHY TO WATCH: There should be plenty of points, which is reason enough to tune in. This would be must-watch TV if Lane Kiffin was still at FAU, but he has moved on to Ole Miss so the drama factor will be almost nil. Both teams sport high-powered offenses, so it could be as simple as the last one who has the ball, wins.
BOWL RECORDS: SMU 7-8-1, FAU 3-0
BETTING NUMBERS: SMU -3, Total 71
CAMELLIA BOWL (5:30 pm, Montgomery, AL)
FIU (6-6) vs Arkansas State (7-5)
WHY TO WATCH: Butch Davis is always entertaining, and the Red Wolves have receiver Omar Bayless, who does a little bit of everything despite the fact the opposition knows he's getting his.
BOWL RECORDS: FIU 2-2, Arkansas State 3-6
BETTING NUMBERS: Arkansas State -2.5, Total 63
LAS VEGAS BOWL (7:30 pm, Las Vegas)
Washington (7-5) vs Boise State (12-1)
WHY TO WATCH: The final game as coach for Chris Petersen, and it's safe to assume his Huskies will want to send him out on a high note against the program he helped elevate. UW had a disappointing campaign and will want to build for next season. Boise State is the G5 that keeps on chugging, and has the electric John Hightower on offense. Look for Bryan Harsin to find multiple ways to get him the football. Also, Vegas, baby!
BOWL RECORDS: Washington 17-20-1, Boise State 12-6
BETTING NUMBERS: Washington -3.5, Total 50
NEW ORLEANS BOWL (9 pm, the Crescent City)
Appalachian State (12-1) vs UAB (9-4)
WHY TO WATCH: How will the Mountaineers react to Eli Drinkwitz being a one and done coach? He took over at Missouri, which means OL coach Shawn Clark will do the heavy lifting for this one and the foreseeable future, as he got the gig permanently. The Blazers may not be pretty on offense, but man can they play some D?! Bill Clark is the next G5 coaching name to watch as someone needs to take a chance on the guy. App State's offense was one of the best in America all season, and has a lot of big play weapons. The chess match between coaches should be fun.
BOWL RECORDS: App State 4-0, UAB 1-2
BETTING NUMBERS: App State -16, Total 48
There's an FCS tilt to lead it off, which means a great band show, a tasty P5 v G5 in Sin City and a host of G5 teams facing off for conference pride.
Here is rundown of all of today's games. Try to keep up.
CELEBRATION BOWL (12 pm, Atlanta)
Alcorn State (9-3) vs. North Carolina A&T (8-3)
WHY TO WATCH: It's the first game of a huge day of bowls, and the halftime show will be the best of any game on this year's slate. Oh, the game should be pretty competitive if you want to watch for that reason. Two very good defensive teams (both top 20 FCS in scoring D) will do battle, and the one who can make a big play here and there will win.
BETTING NUMBERS: North Carolina A&T -3, Total 51.5
NEW MEXICO BOWL (2:20 pm, Albuquerque)
San Diego State (9-3) vs Central Michigan (8-5)
WHY TO WATCH: Stellar defense vs big play offense. There's also the matter of motivation -- the Aztecs KNOW they can't play offense, and were pretty much an afterthought in the MWC despite having a veteran team. CMU made the league title game in year one under Jim McElwain and feels it still has something to prove. America will get a chance to see Aztecs defenders Kyahva Tezino and Luq Barcoo, and Chippewas RB Jonathan Ward.
BOWL RECORDS: San Diego State 5-9, Central Michigan 3-8
BETTING NUMBERS: San Diego State -3.5, Total 41
CURE BOWL (2:30 pm, Orlando)
Georgia Southern (7-5) vs Liberty (7-5)
WHY TO WATCH: Who among us doesn't love disparate offenses on display? The Eagles live by the triple option while Liberty loves to fling it all over the place. Fans who like downfield passing should love the matchup of Flames WR Antonio Gandy-Golden going against Eagles DBs Kindle Vildor and Monquavion Brinson, each of whom has an an NFL future. There's also that Hugh Freeze guy patrolling the Liberty sideline, and taking the Flames to a bowl game in year one of his image makeover.
BOWL RECORDS: Georgia Southern 2-0, Liberty first bowl appearance
BETTING NUMBERS: Georgia Southern -5, Total 58.5
BOCA RATON BOWL (3:30 pm, Boca Raton, FL)
SMU (10-2) vs FAU (10-3)
WHY TO WATCH: There should be plenty of points, which is reason enough to tune in. This would be must-watch TV if Lane Kiffin was still at FAU, but he has moved on to Ole Miss so the drama factor will be almost nil. Both teams sport high-powered offenses, so it could be as simple as the last one who has the ball, wins.
BOWL RECORDS: SMU 7-8-1, FAU 3-0
BETTING NUMBERS: SMU -3, Total 71
CAMELLIA BOWL (5:30 pm, Montgomery, AL)
FIU (6-6) vs Arkansas State (7-5)
WHY TO WATCH: Butch Davis is always entertaining, and the Red Wolves have receiver Omar Bayless, who does a little bit of everything despite the fact the opposition knows he's getting his.
BOWL RECORDS: FIU 2-2, Arkansas State 3-6
BETTING NUMBERS: Arkansas State -2.5, Total 63
LAS VEGAS BOWL (7:30 pm, Las Vegas)
Washington (7-5) vs Boise State (12-1)
WHY TO WATCH: The final game as coach for Chris Petersen, and it's safe to assume his Huskies will want to send him out on a high note against the program he helped elevate. UW had a disappointing campaign and will want to build for next season. Boise State is the G5 that keeps on chugging, and has the electric John Hightower on offense. Look for Bryan Harsin to find multiple ways to get him the football. Also, Vegas, baby!
BOWL RECORDS: Washington 17-20-1, Boise State 12-6
BETTING NUMBERS: Washington -3.5, Total 50
NEW ORLEANS BOWL (9 pm, the Crescent City)
Appalachian State (12-1) vs UAB (9-4)
WHY TO WATCH: How will the Mountaineers react to Eli Drinkwitz being a one and done coach? He took over at Missouri, which means OL coach Shawn Clark will do the heavy lifting for this one and the foreseeable future, as he got the gig permanently. The Blazers may not be pretty on offense, but man can they play some D?! Bill Clark is the next G5 coaching name to watch as someone needs to take a chance on the guy. App State's offense was one of the best in America all season, and has a lot of big play weapons. The chess match between coaches should be fun.
BOWL RECORDS: App State 4-0, UAB 1-2
BETTING NUMBERS: App State -16, Total 48
Friday, December 20, 2019
CFB Focus Bowl Preview -- Dec. 20
The holiday season brings gifts, and few things are as much fun to unwrap as college bowl games.
Yeah, there are too many of them, a majority are poorly attended and there isn't always the highest level of urgency from the combatants. But many of them turn out to be a lot of fun, and they are an opportunity for players to experience the postseason and for coaches to see their troops for another 15 practices. They can sometimes serve as a jumping off point for the next season, especially with very young teams.
The early part of the bowl schedule doesn't have a lot of meat, but have at least something to check out.
BAHAMAS BOWL (2 pm, Nassau, Bahamas)
Buffalo (7-5) vs Charlotte (7-5)
WHY TO WATCH: It's the first bowl game of the season, which is reason enough. Seeing the sun and sand in the Bahamas will be great escapism, especially for those of us stuck in colder climates. Both teams average over 31 ppg and like to lean on the ground game, but the Bulls have a big edge in defense, which could ultimately tip the scales in their favor. Charlotte DE Alex Highsmith is one of the best yet unheralded game wreckers, getting to the quarterback with stunning regularity. Buffalo's 1-2 ground game punch of Jarret Patterson and Kevin Marks will attempt to keep him honest.
BOWL RECORDS: Buffalo 0-3, Charlotte first appearance
BETTING NUMBERS: Buffalo -6.5, Total 55.5
FRISCO BOWL (7:30 pm, Frisco, Texas)
Utah State (7-5) vs. Kent State (6-6)
WHY TO WATCH: Utah State will look toward 2020 without LB David Woodward, its best defensive player, but will have QB Jordan Love playing his final game as he has declared for the NFL. Kent State is in its first bowl game since 2012, when it went 11-3 under Darrell Hazell.Utah State has a talent edge, but the Flashes should be sky high and ready for battle considering that none of these players has tasted real success or the postseason. Kent coach Sean Lewis is the youngest FBS coach in America, at just 33 years old.
BOWL RECORDS: Utah State 5-7, Kent State 0-3
BETTING NUMBERS: Utah State -7, Total 67
Yeah, there are too many of them, a majority are poorly attended and there isn't always the highest level of urgency from the combatants. But many of them turn out to be a lot of fun, and they are an opportunity for players to experience the postseason and for coaches to see their troops for another 15 practices. They can sometimes serve as a jumping off point for the next season, especially with very young teams.
The early part of the bowl schedule doesn't have a lot of meat, but have at least something to check out.
Buffalo (7-5) vs Charlotte (7-5)
WHY TO WATCH: It's the first bowl game of the season, which is reason enough. Seeing the sun and sand in the Bahamas will be great escapism, especially for those of us stuck in colder climates. Both teams average over 31 ppg and like to lean on the ground game, but the Bulls have a big edge in defense, which could ultimately tip the scales in their favor. Charlotte DE Alex Highsmith is one of the best yet unheralded game wreckers, getting to the quarterback with stunning regularity. Buffalo's 1-2 ground game punch of Jarret Patterson and Kevin Marks will attempt to keep him honest.
BOWL RECORDS: Buffalo 0-3, Charlotte first appearance
BETTING NUMBERS: Buffalo -6.5, Total 55.5
Utah State (7-5) vs. Kent State (6-6)
WHY TO WATCH: Utah State will look toward 2020 without LB David Woodward, its best defensive player, but will have QB Jordan Love playing his final game as he has declared for the NFL. Kent State is in its first bowl game since 2012, when it went 11-3 under Darrell Hazell.Utah State has a talent edge, but the Flashes should be sky high and ready for battle considering that none of these players has tasted real success or the postseason. Kent coach Sean Lewis is the youngest FBS coach in America, at just 33 years old.
BOWL RECORDS: Utah State 5-7, Kent State 0-3
BETTING NUMBERS: Utah State -7, Total 67
Friday, November 29, 2019
College Football Whiparound Week 14
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| Ohio State ventures to the Big House for a high stakes showdown with rival Michigan on Saturday (Tim Fuller/USAToday) |
While Thanksgiving itself is great, the days that follow are even better -- and not just because you can get a TV for $300 or gorge on leftovers all weekend. No, it's because there is a copious amount of football, including games on Friday that will make people put down their Black Friday lists and pay attention.
The weekend is highlighted by the top rivalry in all of college football -- Ohio State-Michigan -- as well as other great traditional games. There's the Iron Bowl, Bedlam, Apple Cup, Palmetto Bowl ... all kinds of intriguing contests. Some are for bragging rights only, but many will have a hand in shaping the playoff picture and the New Years Day bowl landscape.
Enjoy the games, and save me a piece of pumpkin pie.
SPOTLIGHT GAME
(1) Ohio State at (13) Michigan: The similarities to 1969 are eerie -- an Ohio State team ranked No. 1, a team that has cruised all season and looked unstoppable ventures to Ann Arbor to face a UM squad that's an afterthought in the league race. Buckeyes fans remember what happened in 1969, as first-year coach Bo Schembechler sprung one of the greatest upsets in the series history, winning 24-12 and denying Ohio State its second straight national title. Flash forward to 2019, and OSU is sitting at the top of the mountain, ready to take on a Wolverines team that has been inconsistent but which has also played its best football of the season the last month or so. Don Brown's defense has finally found itself, and if the offense can generate any kind of running attack the home team can win the game. Since 2000, the team that has won the rushing battle has won the game. Both teams are top 15 in rushing D, but the Buckeyes are fourth in rushing offense while Michigan is 76th.
RANKED AND FILE
(5) Alabama at (15) Auburn: This latest Iron Bowl has some interesting storylines -- can Mac Jones stand up to a really good Auburn defense? Can the Crimson Tide win impressively enough to make a statement to the CFP committee? Can Auburn actually beat a very good SEC team? The Tigers lost by three to LSU and by a touchdown to Georgia, and even an 11-point loss to Florida was close until the final minutes. So if Derrick Brown and the Auburn D can keep it close, maybe Bo Nix can make a play in the closing moments that gives Auburn a win for the third time in the last four times at home against the Tide.
(12) Wisconsin at (8) Minnesota: The most played rivalry in FBS -- this is the 129th meeting -- gets a rare moment in the spotlight as the winner wins the Big Ten West and clinches a berth in the league championship game. The series is as close as one can get -- 60-60-8 -- but the Gophers haven't won at home since 2003, and have won just once overall in that span (last year's 37-15 blowout in Madison). Tanner Morgan and his standout receiving crew will try to get the jump on Jonathan Taylor and the Badgers muscle, and fans may for once be treated to a close game. Not since 2009's 31-28 Badgers win has this game been decided by less than 10 points.
(7) Oklahoma at (21) Oklahoma State: The Sooners have had the upper hand lately, winning four straight and 14 of the last 16 contests, including seven of the last eight in Stillwater. This is usually an explosive affair, as the winner has scored more than 35 points five years in a row. The Cowboys are at a disadvantage without freshman quarterback Spencer Sanders, who went out for the season a couple of weeks ago with injury, but Oklahoma hasn't exactly been playing inspiring football the last month. The Sooners lost to Kansas State, then beat Iowa State, Baylor and TCU by a combined eight points, and have already clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game.
(19) Cincinnati at (18) Memphis (Friday): The Group of Five automatic berth to the New Years Six will likely be decided here, and this could be a preview of the American title game if form holds. Memphis has won three straight over the Bearcats, but Cincinnati has taken three of the last five in the series as the visitor. Both teams have horses in the backfield -- Michael Warren for Cincinnati, Kenneth Gainwell for Memphis -- but the Tigers ability to throw the ball, as well as its elite special teams, could tip the scales to their favor. Cincinnati has been a good road team this season, going 4-1, the lone loss coming at Ohio State, while Memphis can count Ole Miss, Navy and SMU among the foes it has vanquished at home.
OTHER RANKED GAMES
Texas A&M at (2) LSU: Who among us will ever forget last year's classic seven-OT thriller, won 74-72 by the Aggies? This year is a different story, as A&M has struggled to gain footing while LSU has blitzed nearly every opposing defense it has faced. TAMU is facing a No. 1 team for the third time this season, which sets a record -- unfortunately the result of the first two is probably the same as this one is going to be.
(3) Clemson at South Carolina: The Palmetto Bowl is the final step for Clemson in its quest to finish with an unblemished regular season, while the Gamecocks would love nothing more than to upset the Tigers dreams, much as they did Georgia's. Clemson has won five in a row, and just once in that span (2015) was the game within a touchdown.
(4) Georgia at Georgia Tech: Another edition of Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate, in which Tech hasn't won at home since 1999, and only four times overall in that span. The Bulldogs stifling defense will look to shut down a Tech offense that has been inconsistent and turnover plagued (19 lost). Georgia is aiming for a berth in the College Football Playoff and knows it will need to win the SEC title game to get in, but that will be a moot point if it can't knock off the Yellow Jackets.
Colorado at (6) Utah: The Utes may not have any signature victories, but they have been demolishing foes the way a superior team should, and are giving the CFP committee something to really think about. Quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss are two of the best at their position in FBS and should be able to keep the Buffs D back on its heels, and the Utes defense has NFL talent at every level and should prove to be as ornery as usual. Win here and it's on to the Pac-12 title game against Oregon, a chance for Utah to make a true statement.
(9) Baylor at Kansas: Baylor has won eight in a row over the Jayhawks, and four straight in Lawrence. With an outside shot at a CFP still in play, it's a good bet the Bears won't overlook Kansas, which has been all right on offense but horrendous on defense (101st nationally). Running back Pooka Williams has been at his best against the best teams, going for over 100 yards against Iowa State, Oklahoma and Texas. He will be the Jayhawks best hope of breaking off explosive plays. Charlie Brewer doesn't get a ton of pub for Baylor, but has been one of the better passers in FBS (19 TDs, nearly 67 percent completions). Denzel Mims has been a scoring machine at receiver (11 TDs) and could cause major problems for a Kansas defense that has allowed 21 scores through the air.
Rutgers at (10) Penn State: The less said about this one the better. The Nittany Lions are coming off a road loss at Ohio State, a game where they played opportunistic football but couldn't move the ball consistently. That will change against a Scarlet Knights team that's among the worst in America. While championships are out of the question, double digit wins are still in play for Penn State.
Florida State at (11) Florida: Some call this the Sunshine Showdown, but most will call it a mismatch as the Gators aim for a 10th victory while the Seminoles merely aim for respectability. Florida State has won four in a row in Gainesville, which brings hope to an otherwise forgettable season -- one that saw second year head coach Willie Taggart jettisoned. Dan Mullen has the Gators set up for the long haul, and they should vie for the SEC East crown for the foreseeable future, and this game would be a great state bookend to the season-opening victory over Miami. Florida State is already bowl eligible but should put a ton of effort into this one, as many players would love interim coach Odell Haggins to retain the job.
Oregon State at (14) Oregon: This could be an especially spirited edition of the Civil War, as much is on the line for both teams. For the Beavers, a win means bowl eligibility, while the Ducks could still be in line for a Rose Bowl berth. OSU has won only once since 2007, and most of the games haven't been competitive. Jake Luton and a gifted bunch of Oregon State receivers will go up against one of the best secondaries in the nation, led by Jevon Holland.
(16) Notre Dame at Stanford: The Irish have played some of their best football since losing big at Michigan, and on paper this would appear to be an easy game. But Stanford has won five in a row against ND at home, and could provide a stiffer than expected challenge to the visitors. If it's going to happen Stanford will need to score more than the 18 points it's averaged in the last three contests -- all losses. Davis Mills has shown a live arm but has a tendency to take chances, and against a Notre Dame defense that ranks top 20 nationally and is tied for third in takeaways, that could be a recipe for disaster.
(17) Iowa at Nebraska (Friday): The Hawkeyes have won four straight in the series and have taken the last three in Lincoln, but are just 2-2 on the road in 2019, averaging just over 15 points per game away from Kinnick Stadium. Nebraska ended a four game losing skid with a big win over Maryland last weekend, and should be jacked for a game that could provide bowl eligibility. Dedrick Mills has averaged nearly 8 yards per carry the last two games and will be a big part of any Cornhuskers success.
(20) Boise State at Colorado State (Friday): The Broncos are down to their third string quarterback, but have yet to truly miss a beat. Boise has wrapped up the Mountain West Mountain division but are still in contention for the Group of Five automatic NY6 bid. Colorado State has lost all eight meetings, only two of which have been by a single score. There has been talk of Mike Bobo losing his job as head coach, so you have to wonder what the mindset will be for the Rams. Wideout Warren Jackson has been one of the few bright spots in Fort Collins, scoring seven TDs and amassing over 1,000 yards.
(23) Iowa State at Kansas State: The Cyclones haven't won in Manhattan since 2004, and have lost 10 of the last 11 in the series. Brock Purdy and Breece Hall have been the offensive stars in the last month for ISU, so if Kansas State can't stop them it will be a long day at the office. KSU is third in the country in opponents third down percentage, not by doing anything fancy but by staying sound in its responsibilities. The Wildcats are a good tackling team, so Iowa State will need to hit some downfield stuff if it wants to win back-to-back contests against KSU for the first time since 2004-05.
(24) Virginia Tech at Virginia (Friday): Cavaliers fans have to wonder if their side is ever again hold the Commonwealth Cup -- losing 15 straight in a series will do that. There have been a handful of close calls (five games decided by four points or fewer), but the Hokies are now inside UVA's head. It doesn't hurt that Tech has won six of its last seven, and the only loss was a 21-20 setback against Notre Dame. Virginia's pedestrian offense will need to find some big plays against a solid Tech D if it wants to end the long string of misery.
(25) Appalachian State at Troy (Friday): The Mountaineers would love to close out the season with 11 victories in Eli Drinkwitz's first season as head coach, and with Troy being just average at stopping the run that 11th win could be well within reach. Zac Thomas has run the offense with precision and Darrynton Evans has been an under the radar star in the backfield. Troy is playing for bowl eligibility but has dropped three of its last five home finales. If Kaleb Barker can't put some pressure on App State throwing the ball the Trojans have no shot to win
TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
Washington State at Washington (Friday): The mortal enemies vie once again for the Apple Cup, with the winner feeling a little bit better despite a disappointing season. The Cougars weren't expected to be players in the Pac-12 championship race, so a seventh win would be looked at as success. The Huskies were thought to be the league's best shot at a playoff berth, but has limped to a 6-5 mark -- so a win here would salve a lot of hurt. Washington has won six in a row, and hasn't lost in Seattle since 2007.
Georgia State at Georgia Southern: What is it with Georgians and their love of hate? UGA and Tech have Clean Old Fashioned Hate, and this one has been dubbed Modern Day Hate -- and it's only been played five times! Can't we all just get along? The Panthers have won both meetings in Statesboro, so you can bet that the Eagles want to change that trend. Georgia Southern. Both teams are among the top 11 nationally in rushing, but the Eagles have been much better at stopping the run. So Panthers quarterback Dan Ellington may need to hit a couple of shots through the air.
Indiana at Purdue: Another edition of the Old Oaken Bucket, which has been dominated by Purdue since 2000. The Boilermakers have won 12 of the 18 meetings this century, and seven of the last nine in West Lafayette. The Hoosiers have won seven games for the first time since 2007 and would love nothing more than to cap off the year with a win over their hated rival. Purdue is just .500 at home this season and has been maddeningly inconsistent, as well as ravaged by injuries -- including a nearly season-long one to electric receiver Rondale Moore. Purdue did find another threat in freshman wideout David Bell, whose matchup with freshman corner Tiawan Mullen should be a real doozy.
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky: Yet another hate game -- 100 Miles of Hate in this case -- and this one has been one of the more dramatic rivalries in recent years. Six of the last eight have been decided by a single score, including victories of 1, 3 and 5 points in Bowling Green since 2010. WKU is coming off of consecutive road wins over Arkansas and Southern Miss, while MTSU has dropped two of its last three contests. This is a chance for America to see two underrated stars, Middle Tennessee QB Asher O'Hara (914 yards rushing, 2315 passing, 63.6 completion pct) and WKU pass rush terror DeAngelo Malone (10.5 sacks, 20 TFL, 15 QBH).
USF at UCF: The War on I-4 has been won the last two years by the Knights, but the Bulls won in Orlando as recently at 2015. UCF is unbeaten at home this season and has scored at least 41 points in all five contests and welcomes in a USF squad that has dropped three straight and four of its last five games. USF averages just 22 points per game in 2019, and that's not nearly enough to hang with the high-octane Knights. Dillon Gabriel hasn't always been on point with his accuracy, but he's shown great proficiency at the deep ball and isn't afraid to take shots down the field.
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