Friday, November 29, 2019

College Football Whiparound Week 14

Ohio State ventures to the Big House for a high stakes showdown with rival Michigan on Saturday (Tim Fuller/USAToday)

While Thanksgiving itself is great, the days that follow are even better -- and not just because you can get a TV for $300 or gorge on leftovers all weekend. No, it's because there is a copious amount of football, including games on Friday that will make people put down their Black Friday lists and pay attention.

The weekend is highlighted by the top rivalry in all of college football -- Ohio State-Michigan -- as well as other great traditional games. There's the Iron Bowl, Bedlam, Apple Cup, Palmetto Bowl ... all kinds of intriguing contests. Some are for bragging rights only, but many will have a hand in shaping the playoff picture and the New Years Day bowl landscape.

Enjoy the games, and save me a piece of pumpkin pie.

SPOTLIGHT GAME
(1) Ohio State at (13) Michigan: The similarities to 1969 are eerie -- an Ohio State team ranked No. 1, a team that has cruised all season and looked unstoppable ventures to Ann Arbor to face a UM squad that's an afterthought in the league race. Buckeyes fans remember what happened in 1969, as first-year coach Bo Schembechler sprung one of the greatest upsets in the series history, winning 24-12 and denying Ohio State its second straight national title. Flash forward to 2019, and OSU is sitting at the top of the mountain, ready to take on a Wolverines team that has been inconsistent but which has also played its best football of the season the last month or so. Don Brown's defense has finally found itself, and if the offense can generate any kind of running attack the home team can win the game. Since 2000, the team that has won the rushing battle has won the game. Both teams are top 15 in rushing D, but the Buckeyes are fourth in rushing offense while Michigan is 76th. 
RANKED AND FILE
(5) Alabama at (15) Auburn: This latest Iron Bowl has some interesting storylines -- can Mac Jones stand up to a really good Auburn defense? Can the Crimson Tide win impressively enough to make a statement to the CFP committee? Can Auburn actually beat a very good SEC team? The Tigers lost by three to LSU and by a touchdown to Georgia, and even an 11-point loss to Florida was close until the final minutes. So if Derrick Brown and the Auburn D can keep it close, maybe Bo Nix can make a play in the closing moments that gives Auburn a win for the third time in the last four times at home against the Tide. 
(12) Wisconsin at (8) Minnesota: The most played rivalry in FBS -- this is the 129th meeting -- gets a rare moment in the spotlight as the winner wins the Big Ten West and clinches a berth in the league championship game. The series is as close as one can get -- 60-60-8 -- but the Gophers haven't won at home since 2003, and have won just once overall in that span (last year's 37-15 blowout in Madison). Tanner Morgan and his standout receiving crew will try to get the jump on Jonathan Taylor and the Badgers muscle, and fans may for once be treated to a close game. Not since 2009's 31-28 Badgers win has this game been decided by less than 10 points.
(7) Oklahoma at (21) Oklahoma State: The Sooners have had the upper hand lately, winning four straight and 14 of the last 16 contests, including seven of the last eight in Stillwater. This is usually an explosive affair, as the winner has scored more than 35 points five years in a row. The Cowboys are at a disadvantage without freshman quarterback Spencer Sanders, who went out for the season a couple of weeks ago with injury, but Oklahoma hasn't exactly been playing inspiring football the last month. The Sooners lost to Kansas State, then beat Iowa State, Baylor and TCU by a combined eight points, and have already clinched a spot in the Big 12 title game. 
(19) Cincinnati at (18) Memphis (Friday): The Group of Five automatic berth to the New Years Six will likely be decided here, and this could be a preview of the American title game if form holds. Memphis has won three straight over the Bearcats, but Cincinnati has taken three of the last five in the series as the visitor. Both teams have horses in the backfield -- Michael Warren for Cincinnati, Kenneth Gainwell for Memphis -- but the Tigers ability to throw the ball, as well as its elite special teams, could tip the scales to their favor. Cincinnati has been a good road team this season, going 4-1, the lone loss coming at Ohio State, while Memphis can count Ole Miss, Navy and SMU among the foes it has vanquished at home.
OTHER RANKED GAMES
Texas A&M at (2) LSU: Who among us will ever forget last year's classic seven-OT thriller, won 74-72 by the Aggies? This year is a different story, as A&M has struggled to gain footing while LSU has blitzed nearly every opposing defense it has faced. TAMU is facing a No. 1 team for the third time this season, which sets a record -- unfortunately the result of the first two is probably the same as this one is going to be. 
(3) Clemson at South Carolina: The Palmetto Bowl is the final step for Clemson in its quest to finish with an unblemished regular season, while the Gamecocks would love nothing more than to upset the Tigers dreams, much as they did Georgia's. Clemson has won five in a row, and just once in that span (2015) was the game within a touchdown. 
(4) Georgia at Georgia Tech: Another edition of Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate, in which Tech hasn't won at home since 1999, and only four times overall in that span. The Bulldogs stifling defense will look to shut down a Tech offense that has been inconsistent and turnover plagued (19 lost). Georgia is aiming for a berth in the College Football Playoff and knows it will need to win the SEC title game to get in, but that will be a moot point if it can't knock off the Yellow Jackets.
Colorado at (6) Utah: The Utes may not have any signature victories, but they have been demolishing foes the way a superior team should, and are giving the CFP committee something to really think about. Quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss are two of the best at their position in FBS and should be able to keep the Buffs D back on its heels, and the Utes defense has NFL talent at every level and should prove to be as ornery as usual. Win here and it's on to the Pac-12 title game against Oregon, a chance for Utah to make a true statement.
(9) Baylor at Kansas: Baylor has won eight in a row over the Jayhawks, and four straight in Lawrence. With an outside shot at a CFP still in play, it's a good bet the Bears won't overlook Kansas, which has been all right on offense but horrendous on defense (101st nationally). Running back Pooka Williams has been at his best against the best teams, going for over 100 yards against Iowa State, Oklahoma and Texas. He will be the Jayhawks best hope of breaking off explosive plays. Charlie Brewer doesn't get a ton of pub for Baylor, but has been one of the better passers in FBS (19 TDs, nearly 67 percent completions). Denzel Mims has been a scoring machine at receiver (11 TDs) and could cause major problems for a Kansas defense that has allowed 21 scores through the air.
Rutgers at (10) Penn State: The less said about this one the better. The Nittany Lions are coming off a road loss at Ohio State, a game where they played opportunistic football but couldn't move the ball consistently. That will change against a Scarlet Knights team that's among the worst in America. While championships are out of the question, double digit wins are still in play for Penn State. 
Florida State at (11) Florida: Some call this the Sunshine Showdown, but most will call it a mismatch as the Gators aim for a 10th victory while the Seminoles merely aim for respectability. Florida State has won four in a row in Gainesville, which brings hope to an otherwise forgettable season -- one that saw second year head coach Willie Taggart jettisoned. Dan Mullen has the Gators set up for the long haul, and they should vie for the SEC East crown for the foreseeable future, and this game would be a great state bookend to the season-opening victory over Miami. Florida State is already bowl eligible but should put a ton of effort into this one, as many players would love interim coach Odell Haggins to retain the job. 
Oregon State at (14) Oregon: This could be an especially spirited edition of the Civil War, as much is on the line for both teams. For the Beavers, a win means bowl eligibility, while the Ducks could still be in line for a Rose Bowl berth. OSU has won only once since 2007, and most of the games haven't been competitive. Jake Luton and a gifted bunch of Oregon State receivers will go up against one of the best secondaries in the nation, led by Jevon Holland. 
(16) Notre Dame at Stanford: The Irish have played some of their best football since losing big at Michigan, and on paper this would appear to be an easy game. But Stanford has won five in a row against ND at home, and could provide a stiffer than expected challenge to the visitors. If it's going to happen Stanford will need to score more than the 18 points it's averaged in the last three contests -- all losses. Davis Mills has shown a live arm but has a tendency to take chances, and against a Notre Dame defense that ranks top 20 nationally and is tied for third in takeaways, that could be a recipe for disaster. 
(17) Iowa at Nebraska (Friday): The Hawkeyes have won four straight in the series and have taken the last three in Lincoln, but are just 2-2 on the road in 2019, averaging just over 15 points per game away from Kinnick Stadium. Nebraska ended a four game losing skid with a big win over Maryland last weekend, and should be jacked for a game that could provide bowl eligibility. Dedrick Mills has averaged nearly 8 yards per carry the last two games and will be a big part of any Cornhuskers success.
(20) Boise State at Colorado State (Friday): The Broncos are down to their third string quarterback, but have yet to truly miss a beat. Boise has wrapped up the Mountain West Mountain division but are still in contention for the Group of Five automatic NY6 bid. Colorado State has lost all eight meetings, only two of which have been by a single score. There has been talk of Mike Bobo losing his job as head coach, so you have to wonder what the mindset will be for the Rams. Wideout Warren Jackson has been one of the few bright spots in Fort Collins, scoring seven TDs and amassing over 1,000 yards. 
(23) Iowa State at Kansas State: The Cyclones haven't won in Manhattan since 2004, and have lost 10 of the last 11 in the series. Brock Purdy and Breece Hall have been the offensive stars in the last month for ISU, so if Kansas State can't stop them it will be a long day at the office. KSU is third in the country in opponents third down percentage, not by doing anything fancy but by staying sound in its responsibilities. The Wildcats are a good tackling team, so Iowa State will need to hit some downfield stuff if it wants to win back-to-back contests against KSU for the first time since 2004-05. 
(24) Virginia Tech at Virginia (Friday): Cavaliers fans have to wonder if their side is ever again hold the Commonwealth Cup -- losing 15 straight in a series will do that. There have been a handful of close calls (five games decided by four points or fewer), but the Hokies are now inside UVA's head. It doesn't hurt that Tech has won six of its last seven, and the only loss was a 21-20 setback against Notre Dame. Virginia's pedestrian offense will need to find some big plays against a solid Tech D if it wants to end the long string of misery.
(25) Appalachian State at Troy (Friday): The Mountaineers would love to close out the season with 11 victories in Eli Drinkwitz's first season as head coach, and with Troy being just average at stopping the run that 11th win could be well within reach. Zac Thomas has run the offense with precision and Darrynton Evans has been an under the radar star in the backfield. Troy is playing for bowl eligibility but has dropped three of its last five home finales. If Kaleb Barker can't put some pressure on App State throwing the ball the Trojans have no shot to win
TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
Washington State at Washington (Friday): The mortal enemies vie once again for the Apple Cup, with the winner feeling a little bit better despite a disappointing season. The Cougars weren't expected to be players in the Pac-12 championship race, so a seventh win would be looked at as success. The Huskies were thought to be the league's best shot at a playoff berth, but has limped to a 6-5 mark -- so a win here would salve a lot of hurt. Washington has won six in a row, and hasn't lost in Seattle since 2007. 
Georgia State at Georgia Southern: What is it with Georgians and their love of hate? UGA and Tech have Clean Old Fashioned Hate, and this one has been dubbed Modern Day Hate -- and it's only been played five times! Can't we all just get along? The Panthers have won both meetings in Statesboro, so you can bet that the Eagles want to change that trend. Georgia Southern. Both teams are among the top 11 nationally in rushing, but the Eagles have been much better at stopping the run. So Panthers quarterback Dan Ellington may need to hit a couple of shots through the air.
Indiana at Purdue: Another edition of the Old Oaken Bucket, which has been dominated by Purdue since 2000. The Boilermakers have won 12 of the 18 meetings this century, and seven of the last nine in West Lafayette. The Hoosiers have won seven games for the first time since 2007 and would love nothing more than to cap off the year with a win over their hated rival. Purdue is just .500 at home this season and has been maddeningly inconsistent, as well as ravaged by injuries -- including a nearly season-long one to electric receiver Rondale Moore. Purdue did find another threat in freshman wideout David Bell, whose matchup with freshman corner Tiawan Mullen should be a real doozy. 
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky: Yet another hate game -- 100 Miles of Hate in this case -- and this one has been one of the more dramatic rivalries in recent years. Six of the last eight have been decided by a single score, including victories of 1, 3 and 5 points in Bowling Green since 2010. WKU is coming off of consecutive road wins over Arkansas and Southern Miss, while MTSU has dropped two of its last three contests. This is a chance for America to see two underrated stars, Middle Tennessee QB Asher O'Hara (914 yards rushing, 2315 passing, 63.6 completion pct) and WKU pass rush terror DeAngelo Malone (10.5 sacks, 20 TFL, 15 QBH).
USF at UCF: The War on I-4 has been won the last two years by the Knights, but the Bulls won in Orlando as recently at 2015. UCF is unbeaten at  home this season and has scored at least 41 points in all five contests and welcomes in a USF squad that has dropped three straight and four of its last five games. USF averages just 22 points per game in 2019, and that's not nearly enough to hang with the high-octane Knights. Dillon Gabriel hasn't always been on point with his accuracy, but he's shown great proficiency at the deep ball and isn't afraid to take shots down the field. 

Friday, November 22, 2019

College Football Whiparound Week 13


JT Barrett throws a pass in Ohio State's thrilling 39-38 victory over Penn State in 2017, the last time the teams hooked up in Columbus (Joe Maiorana/USAToday)



SPOTLIGHT GAME
(8) Penn State at (2) Ohio State: Supremacy in the Big Ten East is on the line, as is a potential spot in the College Football Playoff. Penn State started the season like a house afire, but it's gotten tougher of late with three of the last four games decided by a touchdown or less. Included is the lone loss of the season, on the road against Minnesota, a game in which the Nittany Lions secondary was exposed. Penn State is top-notch defensively, led by linebacker Micah Parsons, and will have to be if it is to slow down the Buckeyes juggernaut. OSU leads the nation in scoring margin (over 40 points per game) and is top five in both offense and defense. Justin Fields and crew will have to work a bit harder for points against Penn State, but the real challenge for the Nittany Lions will come on offense. OSU has a lethal pass rush -- which gets Chase Young back -- and corners who can lock down receivers, so it may be up to emerging tight end Pat Freiermuth to make some big plays. If he is kept under control then it's likely going to be a long day for the visitors, who may have trouble scoring. OSU has won six of the last seven, including the last three at home. The last three contests have been decided by five total points, and twice in the last three games the number two team has gone down to defeat.
RANKED AND FILE
Arkansas at (1) LSU: A longstanding rivalry game, this one is played for the Golden Boot -- and it's the Tigers who will do most of the kicking. The Razorbacks fired coach Chad Morris so it's hard to know what we'll get on Saturday. We do know that it won't be good enough to knock off LSU, which is on a collision course with Georgia for the SEC Championship. Joe Burrow has the Heisman tucked safely in his back pocket, so the object here is to get out of the game without an injury, and maybe to give confidence to a defense that has been very little like LSU editions of the recent past. Arkansas running back Rakeem Boyd has eclipsed 1,000 yards on the season and is one of the few bright spots for the Hogs. 
Texas A&M at (4) Georgia: At least the Bulldogs aren't scheduling a big check this weekend. The Aggies haven't been great this year, but have shown flashes of brilliance at times. There isn't enough firepower on offense to light up the scoreboard, especially against a Georgia D that's one of the best in the nation. Auburn's rushing touchdown last weekend was the first allowed this season by Georgia, and the Dawgs would love nothing better than to get up by a couple of touchdowns and smother the Aggies with their opportunistic, speed-laden stop unit.
Western Carolina at (5) Alabama: The Crimson Tide suffered a huge blow to their postseason hopes last weekend when Tua Tagovailoa suffered a season-ending hip injury against Mississippi State, so now Mac Jones takes over. He's been effective in spot play this season, but it really doesn't matter who is under center -- or in the backfield, or at receiver, or on defense -- because Alabama is playing FCS Western Carolina. In late November. Before the Iron Bowl. 
(6) Oregon at Arizona State: Recent games have been barnburners, with Oregon taking a pair of two point victories and a six point overtime win since 2015. The Ducks know that if they win out they are likely in the College Football Playoff, and they are unbeaten in true road games this season. If not for the last second loss in the opener against Auburn Oregon would be even more highly thought of. Justin Herbert has gone 11-2 TD-INT in the last four games, completing over 70 percent of his passes. After a fast start ASU has dropped four in a row, including the last two by a total of six points. The Sun Devils are still looking to become bowl eligible so should be ready to go. The question is whether they can stop Herbert and Oregon's air attack -- ASU has allowed 19 touchdown passes and picked off just four in 2019. 
(7) Utah at Arizona: The Wildcats have been respectable over the years against Utah but have dropped the last three by an average of 17 ppg. The Utes are still very much in the running for a berth in the College Football Playoff, which means a top effort here. Arizona is 111th in total defense, good news for a Utah team that ranks in the top 10 on offense (and defense). The Utes have held four of their last five foes to seven points or less, and could do the same to a less-than-potent UA attack.
TCU at (9) Oklahoma: The Horned Frogs have been known over the years for a swarming defense, but it hasn't impacted the Sooners much at all. Oklahoma has scored at least 30 points in each of the last five matchups, and has lost just once to TCU as Big 12 foes. You can bet the Sooners will want to jump out early after nearly falling against Baylor last week, and having Ceedee Lamb back at receiver will go a long way in making that happen. A win clinches a spot in the Big 12 title game for Oklahoma.
(10) Minnesota at Northwestern: The Gophers need to pick themselves up off the canvas and get back to their winning ways, and couldn't have picked a better foe than the offensively-challenged Wildcats. Northwestern has scored 10 points or fewer in six games this year, and have been near the bottom of most offensive stats all season. Minnesota could be without quarterback Tanner Morgan, who is in concussion protocol after taking a hit late in last weekend's Iowa game, but should have enough to nab a road victory. The Gophers need to win out to clinch a berth in the Big Ten title game. 
Purdue at (12) Wisconsin: The Boilers have won three of their last five games -- against the league's lesser lights -- but are 0-3 against ranked foes this season. Purdue has been pretty bad stopping the run this season, which means Jonathan Taylor should have little trouble gaining the 20 yards he needs to pass Herschel Walker for the most yards amassed through a junior season. Wisconsin still has a path to the Big Ten West crown -- win out and it's theirs as next weekend's finale is against Minnesota.
(13) Michigan at Indiana: The Hoosiers are having one of the best seasons in recent memory, winning seven games for the first time since 2007, and continue their quest for respect by hosting resurgent Michigan. Each of the last four meetings have been decided by 11 points or less, all going to the Wolverines. Indiana is 5-1 at home and has only one truly bad loss this season (51-10 to Ohio State in September). Indiana hasn't beaten a ranked opponent since 2016 and will have its hands full against a Michigan team that has scored at least 38 points in four of its last five contests. The defense has finally gotten back to Michigan standards, though you have to wonder whether there will be a little look ahead to next weekend's rivalry game with Ohio State.
Texas at (14) Baylor: As great as their story was, the Bears always seemed like they were living on borrowed time. Six of their nine wins were by one score, and three were by three points or fewer. Now we'll see if they can rebound from the gut punch of blowing a 25-point lead and losing to Oklahoma, and it won't be easy vs a Longhorns team against which they've lost four in a row. Texas has been something of a disappointment, alternating losses and wins dating back to the Oklahoma game. Whoever plays better between Sam Ehlinger and Charlie Brewer, their team most likely comes away with the victory. 
Samford at (15) Auburn: Coming off a hard-fought loss to Georgia, the Tigers should get healthy against FCS Samford. It's late November. Before the Iron Bowl. But still, it just means more, right? 
Boston College at (16) Notre Dame: The Irish have really put things together after the road beatdown against Michigan, averaging over 33 points per contest and limiting foes to just 13. Chase Claypool has burst onto the national scene at receiver, catching 20 passes with five TDs in the last three games. BC is 123rd in pass defense, which means he could have another big day. If the Eagles have any hope of slowing the Irish down it will be on the legs of AJ Dillon. The junior has seven 100-yard games this season and has been a workhorse for BC, averaging 27 carries per contest. BC has lost six straight in the series, though ND squeaked out a 16-14 win the last time the teams met in South Bend.
Illinois at (17) Iowa: The Hawkeyes ended Minnesota's unbeaten season last weekend, so could be a tad complacent against an Illini team that has been the second biggest surprise of the Big 10. Lovie Smith seems to be perpetually on the hot seat but has guided Illinois to six wins, including three road victories. Brandon Peters hasn't been terribly accurate under center, but has valued the football, which is big against an Iowa squad that has picked off a pass in four straight contests. Iowa has won five straight in the series and is 15 points from being unbeaten. You can bet Kirk Ferentz wants a strong finish as the Hawkeyes still have a mathematical shot at taking the West Division crown. 
(18) Memphis at USF: Memphis would love to be a road warrior and come out of this one victorious, as it would keep the Tigers in the driver's seat for the G5 New Year's Six bid. The host has lost five of the last meetings, and Memphis has scored 42 or more points in four straight games. USF's defense has allowed 20 or less in three straight, but it's worth wondering whether the Bulls offense can generate enough points to steal this one. 
Temple at (19) Cincinnati: The Owls have been very streaky this season, never winning more than three nor losing more than two straight. Temple has beaten Cincinnati four straight times, scoring more than 30 points in three of the meetings. Cincinnati has been excellent at home this season, winning by an average of 18 points per contest, and will definitely be focused for this one as next week is a huge showdown with Memphis. The Bearcats eight game winning streak is fifth best in FBS, and they've won 12 in a row at Nippert Stadium. 
(20) Boise State at Utah State: The Broncos have won 13 of the last 14 meetings, though the loss was in Logan in 2015, by a 52-26 count. A Boise State victory puts the Broncos into the Mountain West title game, while a Utah State upset jumbles things at the top of the Mountain Division. Utah State has rebounded from consecutive losses to win two in a row, but the defense, which was expected to be a strong point, has been far too inconsistent. It's a good bet that senior QB Jaylon Henderson gets the start for Boise State after tossing three touchdowns in last week's 42-9 win over New Mexico. 
(21) Oklahoma State at West Virginia: The Mountaineers are fresh off an upset of Kansas State, and could do the same to the Cowboys with word that Spencer Sanders is out for the final games due to a hand injury. That would leave signal-calling duties to senior Dru Brown, who has been solid in limited action but isn't the running threat Sanders is. Since taking over at quarterback for WVU, Jarret Doege has thrown four touchdowns and zero picks and hasn't been afraid to take shots down the field. WVU has lost four in a row in the series. 
Kansas at (22) Iowa State: The Cyclones haven't allowed a touchdown to Kansas in 10 quarters, and have won eight of the last nine. Kansas has allowed 31 or more points in six straight games, which means that maybe Les Miles isn't quite as genius at defense as some believe. Iowa State is 11 points from being unbeaten, and six games have been within one score at the end. Brock Purdy has really stepped up his play in recent weeks, tossing multiple touchdowns in three of ISU's last four games. Purdy has been able to do his thing because freshman running back Breece Hall has finally taken off. Hall has four 100-yard games in the last five contests, scoring all seven of his touchdowns in that span.
UCLA at (23) USC: The battle for the Victory Bowl, the Crosstown Showdown, whatever you want to call it -- it's a celebration of two teams with the best uniform schemes in college football. Both get to wear their home duds, and it is beyond grand. Even if the game stinks -- and this one could -- it's lovely to look at. The Trojans are playing for an eighth victory, something that seemed impossible midway through the season and something that could save Clay Helton's job. The Bruins had won three straight before being blasted by Utah, and still have a shot at bowl eligibility with a win here and next weekend against Cal. The home team has won six of the last eight, and USC has taken 15 of the last 20 meetings. 
Texas State at (24) Appalachian State: You have to think that the Mountaineers are still wondering what happened on Halloween night at home against Georgia Southern -- the only blemish on the App State ledger. Since then ASU has reeled off road wins against South Carolina and Georgia State, and appears once again to be the team many forecast to nab the New Year's Six bid. Texas State has never beaten App State in three meetings as Sun Belt foes, losing by an average of 21 ppg, and averages just 18.7 ppg this season -- though it has managed 57 points in its last two games. An App State win coupled with a Georgia Southern loss clinches the East Division crown.
(25) SMU at Navy: A crucial battle to remain in first place in the AAC West, between two teams that couldn't be more different. The Mustangs play fast, spread you out and love big plays, while the Middies want to control the clock, grind it out and frustrate the hell out your defense. Navy has won eight of the last nine, and the last two meetings have been decided by a total of four points. 
TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
Louisiana Tech at UAB: Legion Field is where visiting teams go to die, as the Blazers have won 17 in a row at home, and have won the last two contests against the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech is top 35 nationally in Yards Per Play while the Blazers are sixth in that category defensively. La Tech is tied for first in the CUSA West with Southern Miss, and UAB is just a game behind. So there is a lot on the line.
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech: Both teams are still very much in the Coastal Division race, which means the winner will have a leg up on being Clemson's sacrificial lamb. The Panthers have won six of their last seven, including three straight away, though they haven't done it easily -- the average margin of victory in the wins is just over five points. The Hokies have become an offensive machine, scoring 34 or more in five of their last six contests. After tabbing dynamic but inconsistent freshmen Quincy Patterson for a few games, Tech went back to Hendon Hooker to run the show, and he's responded with a 67 percent completion average and 11.4 YPA in the last two games. The home team has taken six of the last eight, and seven of the last 11 tilts have been decided by seven points or less. 
Tennessee at Missouri: Don't look now, but a win here makes the Vols bowl eligible. Tennessee has made great strides in year two under Jeremy Pruitt, and sit in third place in the SEC East. Tennessee has won its last three games in impressive fashion, and with Missouri foundering on a four-game losing skid and still unsure whether it is eligible for the postseason, another upset isn't out of the question. Missouri is 5-1 the last six years in home finales, and has pounded Tennessee on the ground in the last three meetings, rushing for 1,080 yards.
Oregon State at Washington State: Bowl eligibility awaits the winner, and the Beavers have been won their last three away from home and have shown real signs of improvement in year two under Jonathan Smith. OSU has averaged 45 points per game in its three road wins, while Wazzu has dropped four of its last six. Washington State has won five straight in the series and knows a win here is vital, with the Apple Cup up next. OSU quarterback Jake Luton has tossed 23 touchdowns and just two picks, while Anthony Gordon leads all of FBS with 39 TD strikes. 
San Diego State at Hawaii: This one is defense vs offense, and may the best unit win. The Aztecs rank 10th in yards per play allowed while the Rainbow Warriors are 11th in yards per play. San Diego State has won five of its last 8 road finales, and has won comfortably in its last two trips to the big island. The winner has the inside track to the Mountain West title game, so this one is worth staying up for.

Friday, November 1, 2019

College Football Whiparound Week 10


Florida faces Georgia in Jacksonville on Saturday, with first place in the  SEC East at stake (AP/John Raoux)



This will be the final week this season where the majority of the card is crappy. Yes, we do get to enjoy the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and a tasty AAC showdown featuring SMU and Memphis. But otherwise, this is a week to check those final items off your Honey-Do list. It doesn't help that the nation's top three teams are all idle this weekend, a stat oddity that hasn't happened since September 1991.

(8) Georgia vs. (6) Florida (Jacksonville) -- This is the second straight year the teams have met as top 10 foes, the Bulldogs winning in grand fashion last year 36-17. The Gators have lost five of the last eight meetings, and the last five contests have been decided by an average of 22 points. Both teams play standout defense, but Georgia has the edge on offense, averaging nearly seven yards per play. Florida will get after Jake Fromm, who was asked to do very little in Georgia's win over Kentucky (just 12 attempts). Some of Fromm's limitations as a passer have been exposed the last couple of games as he's averaged just 4.5 yards per attempt. Georgia will lean on D'Andre Swift, who has averaged over six yards per carry and scored three touchdowns in the Bulldogs last two games. Both teams rank in the top 10 in red zone touchdowns allowed, so if the end zone is found it's likely coming from a big play. The Gators have five players with at least 19 catches, so defenses cannot focus on just one weapon. Kyle Pitts has been a matchup nightmare in the red zone and Freddie Swain has been the big play guy. Georgia has one of the top cover men in the game in sophomore corner Eric Stokes.
(15) SMU at (24) Memphis -- SMU is one of the better stories of the 2019 season, sitting on an undefeated record heading into November for the first time since before the school received the death penalty in the 1980s. The Mustangs have done it with a nice combination of offense (6th in scoring at 43 points per game0 and a defense that has given up some big plays but is adept at rushing the passer (36 sacks, second in FBS). Memphis has gone 17-2 at home since 2017, have won five straight in the series and are 10-1 in November under Mike Norvell. The Tigers are sixth in Yards Per Play and 10th in scoring (39.5) and have one of the most exciting players in football in freshman running back Kenneth Gainwell (over seven yards a pop, 11 TDs). The AAC West division title hangs in the balance in this one, and it's big enough that ESPN has sent GameDay to Memphis, and the broadcast is in prime time. 
Wofford at (4) Clemson -- It's November, and Clemson is playing Wofford. Repeat that -- Clemson is playing Wofford. While the Tigers cannot control how bad the ACC is -- and it's BAD -- it CAN control who it plays in non-league action. And just like the SEC teams that get a break by taking on FCS squads, Clemson is also taking the easiest path to a CFP berth. The committee should institute a rule that says if you play an FCS squad it counts as one less win. Maybe then these teams wouldn't do it anymore. This game, along with the recent comical comments by Dabo Swinney about quitting coaching if players get paid, will make a certain someone pull hard for the Terriers. 
(7) Oregon at USC -- USC dominated the series early, but the Ducks have four of the last six and two of the last three in the LA Coliseum. The Trojans look like they have something special in frosh quarterback Kedon Slovis, who has tossed eight touchdowns and just one interception in the last three games, completing 68 percent of his passes. USC has found its scoring mojo again, averaging 38 points in its last two games. But points will be harder to come by against an Oregon defense that's ninth in the country in points allowed (14.8) and which leads the nation in interceptions (14). Oregon has needed last minute heroics against both of the Washington schools in consecutive weeks, but was rolling opponents prior to that. Oregon can get after the quarterback (23 sacks), so look for Slovis to throw a lot of quick timing passes -- slants, hitches, curls. An Oregon victory clinches the North division, while a USC win would keep the Trojans atop the South.
(9) Utah at Washington -- The numbers would indicate that Utah is the stronger team here, but one number that stands out is the Utes lack of success in Seattle -- just 1-12, and the Huskies have won four straight, including last year's hard-fought 10-3 win in the Pac-12 title game. Washington has dropped two of its last three, not finding enough offense against Stanford and not enough defense against Oregon. The Utes are playing for a return trip to the league championship and needs to keep pace with USC, which is responsible for Utah's lone defeat this season. Utah has yielded just 23 points in its last four games, and has scored 35 or more in three of the four. Tyler Huntley has been great under center, and the return of Zack Moss -- 115 yards and two TDs against Cal -- in the backfield has brought stability back to the Utes offense.
Ole Miss at (11) Auburn -- The Tigers have won 27 straight homecoming contests, and should be pretty confident after taking LSU to the wire before falling last weekend. Auburn has won six of the last seven in the series as host, and Ole Miss should find points tough to come by against the nation's 14th-ranked scoring D. Auburn should be able to dictate terms with its front four, and may be able to find some big plays through the air against a defense that's allowed 15 passing touchdowns and nearly eight yards per pass attempt. 
(14) Michigan at Maryland -- The Wolverines seem to have found something in the second half of the Penn State game, continuing that momentum into last week's blasting of Notre Dame. The Terps have been gashed on defense of late, allowing at least 34 points in four of its last five games. The Wolverines will want to come out fast and keep their foot on the gas as an open week awaits before rivalry games with Michigan State and Ohio State. After looking lost on defense early in the year, Michigan has really tightened things up, allowing just 3.66 yards per play in the last five games.
Virginia Tech at (16) Notre Dame -- Now that it has two losses, how will Notre Dame respond? Last weekend's beatdown at Michigan was atypical for a Brian Kelly team, which just didn't show up. The Irish were bad, and while the CFP is no longer in reach this will be a real test of resiliency. The Hokies average less than four yards per carry running the ball so may need to take to the air to score points against an Irish defense that allows nearly 59 percent completions and 6.5 yards per attempt. Irish quarterback Ian Book has done a good job valuing the football (just two interceptions), but was awful against Michigan's pressure. Don't be surprised if Bud Foster dials up it a notch. 
(17) Cincinnati at East Carolina -- The Pirates have lost four of the last five meetings, but did win the last time at Dowdy-Ficklen. ECU is offensively challenged, and going against one of the top defenses in the country in Luke Fickell's bunch will magnify that. Holton Ahlers hasn't improved as much as one would hope in his second season at quarterback, tossing eight TDs and seven picks, but he is a good runner who will make you pay if you don't account for him. ECU has allowed 19 rushing touchdowns, which plays right into the hands of the physical Bearcats. Michael Warren has a four game scoreless streak he's looking to break, and his bruising style should wear down the Pirates defense. 
(21) Boise State at San Jose State -- Boise State is still the favorite in the Mountain West, but this is not your typical San Jose State squad -- the Spartans have already won four games, which is more than the previous two seasons combined. Wins over Arkansas and Army show that it hasn't been a fluke, San Jose State is definitely improving. Much of that is because quarterback Josh Love has been very efficient with the football (15 TD-3 INT), and senior wideout Bailey Gaither has become a big play threat. Boise State has been getting it done on the ground, with Robert Mahone scoring five touchdowns and freshman George Holani averaging nearly five and a half yards per tote. Broncos freshman Hank Bachmeier is likely out another week with a hip pointer, but sophomore Chase Cord has provided a nice dual threat in relief. San Jose State has never beaten Boise State in 13 meetings. 
(22) Kansas State at Kansas -- The Jayhawks have had a mini-resurgence in the first year under Les Miles, winning as many times in their first eight games (three) as they did all of last year. The last time Kansas won more than three games was its 5-7 campaign in 2009, and KU is getting it done with offense, ranking 33rd in yards per play (6.33). Senior quarterback Carter Stanley has been very good, throwing 19 touchdowns and pushing the ball down the field (9.5 YPA, top 10 nationally). Running back Pooka Williams has gone over 130 yards in two of the last three games and could be a challenge for a Wildcats defense that allows 5.58 YPC (125th nationally), but did a solid job in limiting Oklahoma to just 102 yards on the ground in last weekend's upset.
NC State at (23) Wake Forest -- The home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings, but Wake has not been good at home off of an open week, losing seven straight by an average of 15.4 ppg. NC State has been efficient through the air, though not dangerous, which could work against a Wake defense that allows nearly eight yards per completion. The Demon Deacons have been lethal through the air, with Sage Surratt and Scotty Washington combining for 85 catches and 16 touchdowns. Wake likes to play with tempo, eclipsing 80 plays four times this season and going over 100 plays twice. The hosts would be well served to win here as the schedule ends with three of the last four on the road -- including Clemson in two weeks. Wake has played as a ranked team vs NC State three previous times, and has lost all three.

TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
Miami at Florida State -- The luster is off of this fierce rivalry as both teams struggle to be even mediocre, but you can bet it can make one team's season if it comes away with a victory. Both teams have had issues at quarterback -- and keeping them upright -- which means it could be up to the ground attack to get things done. That could be tough for the Seminoles, even with Cam Akers, because Miami is 14th nationally allowing just 3.07 yards per carry and seven touchdowns. The visitor in the series has won 9 of the last 13 meetings, and 15 of the last 17 games have been decided by a touchdown or less. 
TCU at Oklahoma State -- It's defense vs offense in Stillwater, with the Horned Frogs ranking in the national top 25 in most of the important defensive categories and the Cowboys doing the same on offense. This one will be decided by how well OSU running back Chuba Hubbard does. The nation's leading rusher, Hubbard has cranked out at least 110 yards in all but one game this season and has multiple touchdowns in five contests. TCU allows just 3.2 yards per carry and has allowed more than 24 points just three times this season. Linebacker Garret Wallow (10+ tackles per game) is the heart and soul of TCU's 3-3-5 attack and has excellent instincts. The home team has won 11 of the last 14 meetings. 
FAU at Western Kentucky -- Both the Owls and Hilltoppers have just one loss in league play, so the winner here gets a leg up in CUSA's East Division. After giving up 13 touchdowns in its first two games, FAU has allowed just 15 the rest of the season. Linebackers Rashad Smith and Akileis Leroy have paced the stop unit, and the offense has been efficient enough to take some pressure off. WKU won just three times last year, so being the running for the division crown is a huge improvement. The Hilltoppers have allowed 14 points or less in four of their last five games, with junior defensive end DeAngelo Malone being a real difference maker (9 sacks, 15 tackles for loss, second on the team in tackles with 62). The visitor has won five of the last eight meetings. 
Virginia at North Carolina -- Looky looky -- the top two teams in the Coastal Division squaring off in Chapel Hill. The Cavaliers are coming off of a demoralizing loss to Louisville while UNC edged Duke thanks to a Chaz Surratt interception at the goal line with 14 left to play. The Tar Heels are 4-4 and playing with a ton of energy, which has to be viewed as a positive in Mack Brown's first year of his second stint as head coach. UVA has been wildly inconsistent this season, playing to the level of competition and letting teams hang around far too long. Quarterback Bryce Perkins has just one touchdown pass in the last three games, and the Cavs have averaged less than 4.5 yards per play in the last three contests. Virginia has lost its last nine when playing a second straight road game, but has consecutive wins over the Tar Heels after losing seven in a row. 
UAB at Tennessee -- The Vols upset South Carolina a week ago and want to keep the momentum going against a Blazers squad ranked fifth in the nation in defensive yards per play (4.09). UAB has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game this season but has given up a lot of yardage in each of its last three games. Junior linebacker Kristopher Moll leads the way (9 tackles per game, 9 TFL, 4.5 sacks), while on offense quarterback Tyler Johnston III isn't afraid to push the ball downfield (9.7 YPA). Tennessee has really dialed up the pressure the last three games, amassing 12 sacks and 21 TFL, while receiver Jauan Jennings has been the go-to guy on offense (7-174-2 TD vs South Carolina). Tennessee lost its opener to G5 Georgia State but is 4-0 all time vs UAB. The Blazers are 0-4 vs Power 5 foes under Bill Clark, all against the SEC.

Friday, October 25, 2019

College Football Whiparound Week 9

A huge SEC showdown takes place on Saturday when Auburn visits LSU. One thing is certain -- the Tigers will win (Kevin Cox/Getty Images)






(9) Auburn at (2) LSU -- This one looks to be sort of an elimination game in the SEC West, as the loser will have no margin for error in its quest to knock Alabama off the top of the mountain. Auburn has blown 20 point leads in back to back years against the Bayou Bengals, and haven't won in Baton Rouge since 1999. LSU's lethal offense faces what should be its biggest defensive test of the season, but Joe Burrow and his crew have so far made all opposition look silly.Auburn hasn't won in Baton Rouge in 20 years, but has the kind of defense that can throw LSU off of its game. LSU's D isn't nearly as good as in years past, but Auburn is pretty one dimensional with QB Bo Nix unable to throw the football consistently. Tiger Stadium will be absolutely off the chain for this one, especially since it would give LSU huge momentum heading into an off week before facing Alabama.
(13) Wisconsin at (3) Ohio State -- What was supposed to be the Big Ten game of the year to this point won't materialize, because the Badgers didn't hold up their end of the deal. Wisconsin's shocking loss at Illinois took a bit of the shine from this contest, but it is still a big one for both squads. For the Badgers, it's a chance to show that last week was one huge fluke, and for the Buckeyes it's a chance to prove further that they are the most complete team in the nation. The UW defense is legit, and if OSU puts up huge numbers against this group maybe it will stop the naysayers from shouting "who have they played? -- even though their SOS is the best among the top contenders. The Badgers should bring their best to Ohio Stadium -- whether that's enough to topple the Buckeyes remains to be seen.
(8) Notre Dame at (19) Michigan -- The Wolverines came up short a week ago at Penn State, but had a solid second half and nearly tied the game in the final moments before seeing a touchdown dropped in the end zone. UM will attempt to build on that half against the Irish, who come in rested after an off week. This is a great traditional rivalry that doesn't get played enough, so it's nice to see these teams hooking up. Notre Dame has won three of the last four, but the home team has won five in a row. And it would be just like the Wolverines to win a game that no one believes they have a chance to take.
(1) Alabama at Arkansas -- No Tua? Should be no problem for the Tide, which will lean heavily on Najee Harris and Brian Robinson to run the football at an Arkansas defense that ranks 103rd nationally in YPC (4.8). Mac Jones will simply be asked to manage the game in Tagovailoa's absence, and when he throws it will be easy stuff that allows his stunningly deep receiving corps to make plays in space. The Tide have won 11 straight in the series, including six in a row in Fayetteville. 
Boston College at (4) Clemson-- Don't look now, but the Tigers could be rounding into form. That's bad news for an Eagles team that lost starting quarterback Anthony Brown for the season, and which hasn't beaten Clemson on the road since 2007. The Tigers will look to bring a ton of heat at Dennis Grosel, whose head will likely be spinning as he has precious little time to operate. BC ranks 95th in total defense, including 104th against the pass, and could be just the tonic for Trevor Lawrence, who has been up and down in his sophomore campaign. 
(5) Oklahoma at Kansas State -- The Wildcats haven't topped Oklahoma at home since 1996, and have beaten the Sooners just three times anywhere since 2000. KSU has the look of a hard-nosed team, but ranks 90th on defense -- a fact that has the top-ranked Sooners offense licking their chops. KSU tries to make opposing offenses work for everything, but Oklahoma looks to have too much speed and too many athletes for that to happen. KSU did lead for most of the game the last time these teams met in Manhattan before Oklahoma scored the game-winning touchdown with seven seconds left. So maybe that's a ray of hope for the home team.  
(6) Penn State at Michigan State -- Sparty has won five of the last six meetings and always has one out of the blue upset that most don't see coming. Penn State is coming off of an emotional win over Michigan last weekend, a game in which the Wolverines figured some things out against the Nittany Lions defense. Penn State has had problems running the ball the last two weeks and ranks just 55th in rushing offense, so will need to find some holes in a Spartans secondary that has been very forgiving the last three games -- six TDs, one INT, 77.4 completion percentage. Michigan State is plus-5 in turnovers vs Penn State since 2015. 
Washington State at (11) Oregon --The Ducks have won eight of the last 12 meetings, but have dropped four straight to the Cougars. Oregon is coming off a thrilling road victory over Washington and has USC next, so there a chance it could be looking past a Wazzu team that has lost three of its last four -- including losses in both of its prior games against ranked teams. Justin Herbert and Anthony Gordon will take center stage, but Herbert may have the edge going against a pass defense that ranks 113th nationally in yards per pass allowed. A win for the Ducks all but clinches a  Pac-12 North Division title.
California at (12) Utah -- The Pac-12 is supposed to be a finesse league, but this contest should be a throwbck to the days when 17-13 games were the rule and not the exception. The Utes and Bears are each top 30 nationally on defense, but Utah has a big edge on offense with quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss. Cal hasn't scored more than 28 points in a game this season, and has averaged just 13.6 in its last three games. Devon Modster hasn't gotten it done under center in relief of injured Chase Garbers, and the Utes should be able to dictate terms on defense. Utah has won three straight at home in the series and four of the last six meetings. Utah needs to keep winning if it wants to take home the South Division crown, so urgency will be a factor in this one.
(15) Texas at TCU --The Horned Frogs have taken four of the last five contests, and it would be very Texas-like for the Longhorns to drop this game. Nearly all of the numbers point to UT, including efficiency, turnovers and red zone proficiency. That last one especially could loom large as TCU ranks 124th in opponents red zone touchdown percentage (77.8 percent). This has been a second straight underachieving season for TCU, which has had offensive issues galore and hasn't found any kind of consistency from the quarterback spot. Even if Texas isn't sharp for this one, you have to think Sam Ehlinger will make enough plays to get his team through. 
Maryland at (17) Minnesota -- The Gophers have been a force on offense, scoring at least 34 points in six of their seven victories. The defense started off very average but has improved in recent weeks, though the opposition has gotten softer. Maryland should have quarterback Joshua Jackson and tailback Anthony McFarland back for this game, which enhances the offense greatly. The Gophers have won 11 of their last 17 in Minneapolis but lost at home to the Terps in 2017. Minnesota is still looking for national legitimacy but probably won't get it after this week. But looming up ahead is plenty of opportunity -- Penn State at home, and then a road trip to Iowa. If the Gophers come through those games on top, you can bet America will stand up and take notice. 
(20) Iowa at Northwestern --This game was circled by many at the start of the year as a division shaping contest, but the Hawkeyes are the only ones who have actually lived up to expectations. Iowa has its usual stout defense and somewhat plodding offense, but the Wildcats have been abysmal with the football -- 128th in the country in scoring at just 12.5 per game. Iowa is not a team you get healthy against, and you have to wonder if Pat Fitzgerald's troops have started to look ahead to next season. Northwestern has won the last three meetings, all in throwback, defensive fashion, and it will have to hope that the Hawkeyes have another four-turnover contest (as they did in a 10-3 loss to Michigan) if it wants a legit chance at victory.
(21) Appalachian State at South Alabama -- This one screams mismatch -- App State is top 10 in scoring, the Jags are bottom six -- which means maybe there's a tendency to look past the hosts and ahead to rival Georgia Southern. But the Mountaineers are still vying for the G5 NY6 berth, and staying unblemished is the most likely way to snag it. Zac Thomas has been uber efficient running the offense and is the engine that makes the A-Train go. App State is deadly in the red zone, scoring a touchdown on all but three of its 28 trips.
Oklahoma State at (23) Iowa State -- The Cyclones are getting hot at the right time, blowing away their last three foes and sitting squarely in the mix for the Big 12 crown. ISU -- only three points from an unbeaten season -- has allowed just three touchdowns at home this season, but will need to be on point against a Cowboys team that has explosiveness in running back Chuba Hubbard and receiver Tylan Wallace. Iowa State can counter with Brock Purdy, who isn't getting enough love nationally despite ranking fifth in passing, and backfield revelation Breece Hall, who has gone for 100-plus yards in each of the last two games, with five touchdowns. Iowa State should be focused here, as an off week awaits before a season-defining trip to Oklahoma. The home team in this series has won eight of the last 13, usually in high-scoring fashion. 
(24) Arizona State at UCLA -- Typically a hard-fought series -- average margin in the last three games is four points -- this year it's two teams heading opposite directions. Surprisingly, both are .500 in league play. The Sun Devils were embarrassed last week at Utah, but have taken the measure of Cal and Michigan State on the road this season. The Bruins have dropped all three of their contests at home in 2019, by an average of nearly 20 points per game. The defense has been especially bad, allowing 41 plays of 20-plus yards, and has yielded a nation's high 21 touchdowns through the air. Think Jayden Daniels and Brandon Ayiuk aren't salivating at this matchup?

TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
USC at Colorado (Friday) -- If ever the Buffs are going to beat the Trojans, this would be the year. Winless in 13 meetings against USC, Colorado started the season with three wins in four games, including an upset of Arizona State. But the offense has gone south recently, scoring just 13 points in its last two games. USC didn't embarrass itself at Notre Dame (30-27 loss) and blasted an Arizona team that looked to be surging last weekend. But there are still concerns about a defense that has allowed fewer than 20 points just once this season. The four games have been won by an average of 8 points per contest, but the Buffs are just 8-8 at home in their last 16 contests. USC is tied with Utah in the Pac-12 South but has an edge thanks to a head to head victory, so a win here would bring them closer to what many felt was an impossible goal. 
Virginia at Louisville -- Since 2012 Virginia is a shocking 5-25 on the road in ACC play. Despite an active, stellar defense, the Cavs often allow teams to hang around way longer than they should, and the Cardinals are an improving bunch who have broken off 42 plays of 20-plus yards this season. While limited last week against Clemson, Louisville scored 62 against Wake Forest and 41 against Boston College, so there is potential. The problem is a defense that's atrocious -- a defense that Bryce Perkins and his receiving crew can take easy advantage of. Louisville has not allowed fewer than 35 points in Power 5 play this season, so it will have to hope it can outscore the visitors, who still have designs on winning the Coastal Division crown. 
Tulane at Navy - A sneaky good AAC West battle goes down in Annapolis, with the resurgent Middies coming in winning three straight and four of the last five in the series. Quarterback Malcolm Perry has been excellent running the Navy attack, and could find some room against a Tulane rush defense that ranks 59th nationally in YPC allowed (4.02). Navy leads the country in red zone touchdown percentage, scoring 21 times on 22 trips, but the Green Wave have been nearly as good, hitting paydirt 19 times in 23 journeys to the red zone. Tulane ranks in the nation's top 10 in rushing, thanks to dual threat quarterback Justin McMillan (7 rush TDs) and speedy running back Corey Dauphine (10.4 YPC). The winner stays within shouting distance of SMU, who plays these teams in back to back weeks to close out the regular season. 
UCF at Temple -- Another AAC battle, these teams have split the last four meetings. The teams share similar defensive profiles, but the Knights have a decided advantage on offense, ranking top 10 nationally in Yards Per Play. Temple has home victories over Maryland, Georgia Tech and Memphis this season and have won eight of its last 10 home contests dating back to last season. The Owls have been hampered by inconsistent play at quarterback, alternating Anthony Russo and Todd Centaio on an almost weekly basis. Both will play, Centaio is the bigger dual threat. UCF is second nationally in plays of 20-plus yards (54) while Temple has allowed only 24. So something has to give. The winner of this contest stays in the race for East Division honors. 
Utah State at Air Force -- The Falcons looked to be in a potentially tough spot last week at Hawaii, losing quarterback Donald Hammond to injury, but backup Mike Schmidt was fabulous in relief, rushing for 120 yards and three scores and completing five of six passes for 147 yards and a touchdown. Aggies quarterback Jordan Love entered the season with all sorts of buzz, even being talked about as a first-round possibility. His production has not matched the talk, as Love is completing less than 59 percent of his throws and has tossed nine interceptions. Utah State has won four of its last five, including an upset of San Diego State early in the season, on the shoulders of a top 40 defensive unit. The Aggies are 22nd against the run, allowing just 3.19 YPC, but will be tested by an Air Force attack that averages 5.3 YPC and leads the nation in rushing scores with 27. Utah State has been dreadful in the red zone, ranking last in conversion percentage with just 8 touchdowns in 24 trips inside the opponents 20 yard line.

Friday, October 4, 2019

College Football Whiparound Week 6

Auburn heads to Florida to take on the Gators in a battle of SEC unbeatens (Saturday Down South)
(7) Auburn at (10) Florida: Typically a low-scoring, down to the wire contest, this SEC showdown will feature all kinds of defensive stars, and keep one team on the path to an undefeated season. Three of the last five meetings were decided by a field goal. The Gators have won four of the last five in Gainesville, and are tied for second nationally in sacks. That's important because Auburn freshman QB Bo Nix is 99th in the country in passer rating when blitzed, so look for Todd Grantham to bring the heat early and often -- and the Gators can get to the QB, as evidenced by their 24 sacks. Auburn has just one interception on the season and has allowed seven touchdowns through the air, so don't be surprised to see Florida taking some shots early.QB Kyle Trask has filled in nicely for the injured Feleipe Franks, tossing five TDs and completing over 77 percent of his throws.
(23) Michigan State at (4) Ohio State: The Buckeyes have won six of the last seven played in Columbus and 12 of the last 15 meetings, which includes a 48-3 shellacking in 2017. Michigan State just squeaked past Indiana last weekend but could have problems up front as they are down four offensive linemen. It's gotten so bad that defensive lineman JD Duplain has moved over to the offense, and that could be a real problem given the Buckeyes depth and tenacity along the defensive front. While Brian Lewerke leads the league in passing yards, he's completing less than 60 percent of his passes on the season. MSU has found a running threat in freshman Elijah Collins (5.3 YPC), which may help take the air out of the ball. The Buckeyes lead the nation in scoring margin as well as sack rate and stuff rate, so it could be tough going all around for the visitors. 
(14) Iowa at (19) Michigan: Could this be the start of a precipitous slide for the Wolverines? If recent history is any indication UM should be on high alert as the Hawkeyes have won five of the last six meetings, which includes three of the last four in Ann Arbor. Both teams are stout on defense, but the Wolverines have been anemic on offense, averaging just 5.54 yards per play (84th nationally). UM also has just 15 runs of 10+ yards this season and really needs the ground game to get going. The Hawkeyes have been great getting foes off the field, ranking eighth in FBS in opponent third down conversions, and could have success against the pass as they rank in the top 20 in yards allowed and have given up just four touchdowns. 
(3) Georgia at Tennessee: This one should be easy -- the Bulldogs rank among the nation's best in both offense and defense, get after the passer and protect the quarterback as well as any team in the country. The Vols are 88th in total offense and have issues at quarterback, and have won just twice in the last nine contests. There could be a surprise or two as this series has traditionally been close -- other than the last two Georgia blowouts, the previous six meetings had an average MOV of five points. 
Utah State at (5) LSU: The battle of quarterbacks Jordan Love and Joe Burrow should be worth the price of admission, even if the game is likely to be a blowout. LSU has won both prior meetings and is 8-1 against current Mountain West foes. The Tigers are doing things backward this year, touting a red-hot offense (fifth nationally at 7.99 YPP), led by Burrow's 17 touchdown passes. The Aggies are 1-11 the last six years in non-league road games, but could put up some points against an LSU defense that hasn't quite been up to par. Love is completing nearly 65 percent of his passes, but has tossed five INTs to just six touchdowns. The Aggies will have to hope they can run the ball with Jaylen Warren and Gerold Bright, averaging a combined 6 YPC. 
(6) Oklahoma at Kansas: The Jayhawks haven't beaten the Sooners since 1997, the last of three straight victories in the series. Oklahoma is laser-focused and knows that Texas is next up, so it would love nothing more than to make another statement this week. Jalen Hurts is among the Heisman Trophy leaders, but may have shoulder a bit more of the running load if RB Kennedy Brooks is limited (leg injury sustained last week vs Texas Tech). Kansas has its own issues, as leading rusher Khalil Herbert (nearly 9 YPC) is no longer part of the program after deciding to sit out last weekend's loss to TCU. That will put the spotlight on Pooka Williams, who dazzled last year as a freshman but has looked ordinary this year. Oklahoma has averaged 52 points in the last five meetings with Kansas, and shouldn't have much trouble hitting that this weekend. 
Kent State at (8) Wisconsin: The Flashes are 98th in YPP on defense, which means the Badgers should be able to run, pass, kick and crawl their way to a big victory. The Badgers haven't hosted two MAC schools in the same season since 1992, and won both of those big. Wisconsin already has a win over Central Michigan earlier this season, and should be able to use this game as a showcase to get running back Jonathan Taylor back in the Heisman Trophy mix after having one of his least productive games -- relatively speaking -- last week against Northwestern (one TD, 4.83 YPC, the first time this season he's been under 5 YPC). 
Bowling Green at (9) Notre Dame: The Irish have never lost to a MAC team in seven contests, and the first won't come in this meeting with the Falcons. BG is 119th in YPP on offense and 122 on defense, and are outclassed at every turn. The Irish should be able to do whatever they want, though they have had a recent habit of playing down to competition, and beat MAC foe Ball State by just eight points last season.
(11) Texas at West Virginia: The Longhorns have two of the last three played in Morgantown, but come in with a banged-up defense, especially in the secondary. Caden Sterns, Jalen Green and Josh Thompson are all out, Thompson for the rest of the season due to a foot injury. That could mean big things for WVU WR Sam James (26 catches, 1 TD) against a UT pass D that ranks 106th nationally. If Texas can shut down the passing game it will be in good shape because WVU has lacked explosiveness most of the season. The Mountaineers have allowed eight TDs through the air, which should make Devin Duvernay's eyes light up. The senior wideout has 39 grabs and four TDs and has yet to drop a single target this season.
Purdue at (12) Penn State: Purdue will not have quarterback Elijah Sindelar or dynamic wideout Rondale Moore for this game, and they were just about the only chance the Boilermakers had of keeping the contest close. Penn State has won eight straight, with only the 2011 game being less than a one-score contest. This is the last "breather" for the Nittany Lions for awhile as the next three are Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State. Penn State should be able to do what it wants to in this one. 
Cal at (13) Oregon: The Bears lead the series 41-39 but have dropped nine of the last 10, including five straight in Eugene. Both teams play excellent defense -- Oregon ranking fifth nationally in YPP at 3.89 and Cal giving up 4.89. So every yard will have to be earned. The Ducks are much more dynamic on offense, ranking 27th in YPP, and QB Justin Herbert has 14 touchdowns to zero interceptions on the season. So the Bears top-notch secondary will definitely be tested, though LB Evan Weaver will once again be all over the field making just about every tackle. Cal QB Chase Garbers was knocked out of the last game, leaving UCLA transfer Devon Modster in charge. He was just five-of-14 last week against Arizona State, so Justin Wilcox will need to get creative on offense if Cal wants to find the end zone.
(15) Washington at Stanford: Another close Pac-12 series, with the Huskies holding a 43-42-4 edge. Stanford has won four of the last six meetings, and Washington hasn't won in Palo Alto since 2007. Washington has gotten steady, sometimes spectacular, play from QB Jacob Eason, and he could have a big day against a Stanford defense ranked 115th in the country in YPP. Cardinal QB KJ Costello is out, which means Davis Mills gets the start. He's been OK, throwing 4 TDs to just one pick, but can't challenge defenses deep the way Costello can. Stanford averages just 3.59 yards per carry, and the Huskies haven't been very good against the run (7 TDs allowed). So if Stanford can be balanced on offense it could have a puncher's chance to win.
(16) Boise State at UNLV: The Broncos have averaged 44 points per contest in a five-game winning streak, and should once again be able to push the Rebels around. UNLV lacks punch on offense, while Boise brings a ferocious defense to the table. That's not optimum for the home team, which has failed to score more than 17 points in each of the last three games. Boise State has done well getting to the passer (13th nationally) and should have ample opportunity for big plays as UNLV has allowed 22 plays of 20-plus yards and 15 of 30-plus.
(18) UCF at Cincinnati (Oct. 4): The teams have met just four times, the Knights taking each of the last three in convincing fashion. Both squads have been stingy on defense, ranking in the top 30, while the Knights have a decided edge on offense (seventh in FBS). Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel has played beyond his years, tossing 14 TDs to just two picks and showing an affinity for the downfield throw. Cincinnati wants to run the football with Michael Warren III but hasn't been good at it this year, averaging just 4.1 yards per carry as a team. Cincinnati has been stout in the red zone, ranking 14th in opponents scoring percentage, and has allowed just 39 plays of 10-plus yards, 13th best in the nation. That will be challenged mightily by the Knight big play offense, but UCF has been susceptible to the big play, allowing 77 gains of 10-plus yards (113th). Maybe the home atmosphere allows the Bearcats to break a play or two because it's questionable whether they can grind things out against a talented UCF defense. 
(21) Oklahoma State at Texas Tech: The Cowboys have won nine of the last 10 and five in a row in Lubbock, and making things tougher for the Red Raiders is that QB Alan Bowman will be out a few more weeks after suffering a shoulder injury in September. OSU is 14th in the country in YPP (7.04), including averaging over 6 yards per rush. Chuba Hubbard has been a man in the backfield, going over 200 yards three times already this season, and leads the country in yards (938) and touchdowns (10). Quarterback Spencer Sanders hasn't played like a freshman, completing 64.5 percent of his passes and showing an ability to burn teams with his legs (380 yards, 2 TDs).
Tulsa at (24) SMU: The Mustangs are ranked for the first time since 1987, it's last season of competition before getting the death penalty for a pay for play scandal. SMU is doing it on both offense, ranking in the top 35 nationally in both total offense and defense. The addition of Shane Buechele at quarterback has breathed life into the offense. The Mustangs have 25 passing plays over 20 yards and 16 over 30 yards, but Tulsa has been solid against the pass, allowing just four touchdowns on the season. SMU has lost four of the last five meetings, but the home team has won three in a row. A win here sets up the Ponies for a grueling stretch run, with road trips to Houston and Memphis in consecutive weeks beginning in late October.

TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
Baylor at Kansas State: An underrated Big 12 series, the Wildcats lead 9-7 and will look to rebound from last year's narrow 37-34 setback in Waco. Both teams prefer to run the football, but are disciplined when throwing it -- they've combined for 15 TDs and zero interceptions. Baylor ranks 8th in third down conversions while KSU is third in stopping third down conversions, so whichever of those two units wins the battle likely wins the game. 
TCU at Iowa State: The Horned Frogs have won three of the last four meetings in Ames but will have their hands full with a Cyclones bunch that knows it let one slip away last weekend against Baylor. The Cyclones will look to QB Brock Purdy to do damage through the air but could have issues dealing with TCU's lockdown pass D, which is allowing only 50 percent completions and four touchdowns this season. TCU RB Darius Anderson is sixth nationally running the ball and averages over eight yards per pop. The Cyclones are teetering on the brink of irrelevance in the Big 12 with a loss in this game, so expect a renewed focus.
Tulane at Army: The visitor has won four of the last five meetings, but Army has taken four of the last six --so something has to give. The Black Knights are coming off of an idle week while Tulane had a long week after scoring late to knock off Houston Sept. 26th. Both teams are in the top 10 in rushing, but Tulane has been a bit more susceptible to the big play.
Air Force at Navy: Fans love Army-Navy, but this one is a part of the Commander In Chief's trophy, and Navy has taken 11 of the last 15 contests. Both teams have been stout on defense, allowing less than 10 plays of 10+ yards this season, and rank first (Navy) and second in rushing yards per game. Don't be shock if there's a little trickery here and the passing game ends up deciding the contest -- both teams average over 11 yards per attempt.
Western Michigan at Toledo: A MAC West showdown that likely decides the winner of the division, the Broncos and Rockets have staged some shootouts in recent seasons. The Rockets have won seven of the last nine, and both of WMU's losses this season have been away from home. Broncos QB Jon Wassink has already tossed 10 TDs this season and loves pushing the ball downfield. Toledo QB Mitchell Guadagni completes 60 percent of his passes but is dangerous with his legs, averaging six yards per tote. WMU is just 1-3 in the Glass Bowl since 2011.

Friday, September 20, 2019

College Football Whiparound Week 4


The battle in the trenches will decide Saturday's contest between Notre Dame and Georgia (Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
After last weekend's mostly meh card, week 4 of the college football season heats up with three ranked vs. ranked contests -- chief among them a top 10 battle in Athens between Notre Dame and Georgia. The winner will have an inside track to a berth in the college football playoff while the loser will need to come out of choppy waters unscathed.

Here is our look at Week 4 of the college football season (all games Sept. 21 unless noted):

(7) Notre Dame (2-0) at (3) Georgia (3-0): The Bulldogs have won 15 straight games at home, but face their first true challenge of the year in the Fighting Irish. Georgia won 20-19 in South Bend in 2017 but the Irish are 3-1 in their last four contests against the SEC. This one will be won or lost in the trenches, and Georgia dominates in most of those categories. The Irish will be without top runner Jafar Armstrong, which could put more of the onus on QB Ian Book, who has yet to throw an interception and has six scoring tosses. The matchup of Chase Claypool and Georgia corner Eric Stokes will be one to watch, as Stokes is one of the best press corners in the country, which comes in handy against the 6-4 Claypool. Jake Fromm has taken a few more shots downfield this season (10.7 YPA) and has been smart with the football -- no interceptions and a 75 percent completion percentage. Georgia has won both of the prior meetings.
(8) Auburn (3-0) at (12) Texas A&M (2-1): The home team is just 1-6 in the last seven contests, but this is the beginning of a tough stretch for the Tigers, who have Mississippi State and Florida up next. Auburn's stingy defense (4.34 YPP) will be tested by A&M's explosive offense (6.48 YPP), and the Tigers have been good about putting opponents behind the chains (22 TFL). Auburn QB Bo Nix has been hot and cold, so the game may belong more to RB JaTarvious Whitlow (5.3 YPC, 3 TD). The Aggies offense is only as good as Kellen Mond, and he's been more good than bad this season. RB Isaiah Spiller has been a revelation as a freshman, averaging over 8 yards per carry, and he could be important in the time of possession battle.
(11) Michigan (2-0) at (13) Wisconsin (2-0): The Badgers have won 16 of their last 18 at Camp Randall, and present a big challenge to a Michigan team struggling to find an offensive identity. The Wolverines welcomed the bye week as it has dealt with injuries to OL Jon Runyan Jr and WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, both of whom are expected to suit up. The bye week also allowed UM to return to its favored 4-3 set after tweaking the D against unorthodox offenses. Wisconsin has yet to allow a point this season and looks more balanced on offense instead of simply featuring Jonathan Taylor. Don't get me wrong, he's been great -- 6.77 YPC, 5 TDs and 118.5 yards per contest -- but junior QB Jack Coan has done something Alex Hornibrook could never do -- value the football. Coan has completed 76 percent of his passes with five TDs and zero interceptions, so Michigan cannot just load up against Taylor. Michigan is just 8-6 away from home the last three seasons while Wisconsin is 17-3 at home.
Charlotte (2-1) at (1) Clemson (3-0): The chance to see Charlotte DE Alex Highsmith, who has four sacks and 5.5 TFL, will be welcome, but fans of the 49ers have little else to be optimistic about. Clemson has looked better and better each week, and have a 36-game winning streak vs non-P5 opponents (last loss was to Marshall in 2009). Charlotte can get to the quarterback but allows 5.18 YPC on the ground, which means Travis Etienne should have a big day.Clemson hasn't quite gotten things cranked up yet, so it may want to show that it is ready to defend its national championship by pulling out all the stops against Charlotte
Southern Miss (2-1) at (2) Alabama (3-0): The Golden Eagles may want to try to slow the game down by running the football, which can be done against a Tide stop unit allowing over 5 YPC. Problem is that USM is averaging just 3.24 yards per carry and has just three rushing TDs -- two from quarterback Jack Abraham, who is a good one but will likely see pressure all afternoon. Southern Miss' 106th ranked pass defense has already allowed six touchdowns, and that number is sure to go up against Jeudy, Ruggs and crew. Alabama has won 19 in a row vs current CUSA members since 2001 -- though the last loss was to Southern Miss in 2000.
Vanderbilt (0-2) at (4) LSU (3-0): Transfers and experience meant preseason expectations for the Vandy offense, but the Commodores have been stuck in neutral so far, averaging just 5.23 YPP and 15 PPG. QB Riley Neal hasn't been bad, but RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn is averaging barely over 4 YPC and has a single touchdown. Neither Kalija Lipscomb nor Jared Pinkney, among the best in the SEC at their respective positions, have a touchdown. And to make matters worse, Vandy ranks 126th nationally in pass defense. You think Joe Burrow and his talented receiving corps aren't salivating at the prospect of facing a defense with zero sacks and just one interception? LSU has won seven straight in the series by an average of 17 ppg, and Vandy is just 7-22-1 vs LSU all time.
Miami (Ohio) (1-2) at (6) Ohio State (3-0): A final appetizer for the Buckeyes before the Big Ten slate begins, the Red Hawks shouldn't offer much resistance with a defense allowing nearly 400 yards per game. Justin Fields, JK Dobbins and the rest of the Buckeyes offense will look to continue their standout play, while the retooled defense looks to stay in the top 10. The Red Hawks failed to break 14 points against Iowa and Cincinnati, so points will be hard to come by against the swarming OSU stop unit. Look for Ohio State to make a statement with Nebraska on deck. Ohio State is 5-0 in the series and hasn't lost to an in-state foe since 1921. 
Tennessee (1-2) at (9) Florida (3-0): The series has been dominated by the Gators, who have won 13 of the last 14 and seven in a row. UF rallied for a road win over Kentucky last week despite losing QB Feleipe Franks to a season-ending injury. Kyle Trask played well in relief, completing nine of 13 and running the offense with confidence. Tennessee has been solid defensively, limiting explosive plays (only five plays have gone for 20+ yards) but has had trouble generating pressure (just six sacks). Jarret Guarantano has been solid at quarterback, with Jauan Jennings (17.3 YPC, 4 TDs) being his favorite target. The Gators, despite a wealth of talent in the secondary, can be had through the air -- if teams can avoid the pressure they bring (nation's best 16 sacks).
(10) Utah (3-0) at USC (2-1) (Sept 20): The continuation of a brutal stretch for the Trojans, who are coming off an overtime home loss to BYU and face Washington and Notre Dame on the road the next three weeks. Clay Helton could be feeling the heat if the Utes continue their stifling ways on defense -- top 10 in total defense and stingy in the red zone, allowing foes just two TDs in four trips. USC will have to hope it can make something happen with its Air Raid attack and frosh quarterback Kedon Slovis. The Utes are top 20 nationally in yards per play and have gotten stellar results from seniors Tyler Huntley (11.1 YPA, 4 TD, 0 INT) and Zack Moss (373 yards, 4 TDs, leading the nation in yards after contact). The home team has won six in a row and the Utes are just 11-7 away from home the last three seasons. 
Oklahoma State (3-0) at (12) Texas (2-1): If Texas wants to prove that it is truly back, it needs to beat the Cowboys -- which it hasn't done the last five times the teams have played in Austin. Texas has lost seven of the last nine meetings but may come up firing as a bye week follows. Both teams are forgiving on defense, though Texas has done a solid job taking the ball away (4 TOs). Oklahoma State is third nationally in third down conversions and has gotten excellent play from redshirt frosh quarterback Spencer Sanders (9-1 TD-INT9.7 YPA). Texas will look to its own warrior Sam Ehlinger, who has 11 TDs to zero picks and has run the ball less this season as his passing has improved.
(15) UCF (3-0) at Pittsburgh (1-2): The Knights go on the road in their continuing quest for respect, facing a Power 5 squad that lacks explosiveness but is solid enough on defense to have a puncher's chance. The Panthers took Penn State to the wire last weekend thanks to excellent defense, and their 12 sacks put them among the nation's top 10 in that category. If Pitt can effect freshman quarterback Dillon Gabriel it can stay in the game. Pitt lacks offensive explosiveness, so it will need to keep up its penchant for not allowing big plays (25 plays of 10+ yards, 19th nationally). Greg McCrae is lightning quick from the backfield and has three scores, while Gabriel Davis can stretch the defense (22.9 YPC, 3 TD). Pitt is 8-2 in non-league home games under Pat Narduzzi while the Knights are just 4-23 in regular season road contests against Power 5 schools. 
(16) Oregon (2-1) at Stanford (1-2): The Ducks have dropped five of the last seven meetings, including last year's heartbreaker when they fumbled late while trying to run out the clock. Stanford won in overtime, beginning a stretch for Oregon that meant three losses in five games and elimination from the Pac-12 race. The Ducks touted offensive line has lived up to billing, ranking first by Pro Football Focus through three weeks. Stanford's touted secondary has been exposed in consecutive losses, allowing 11.4 YPA against USC and 11.6 YPA against UCF. That has to make Justin Herbert's eyes light up. Injuries to the offense have rendered Stanford impotent on that side of the ball (4.97 YPP), and it may not get any better with the shaky status of quarterback KJ Costello and the season ending loss of OL Walker Little. 
UCLA (0-3) at (19) Washington State (3-0): How much of a mess is there in Westwood? So much that fans are applauding the retirement announcement of AD Dan Guerrero, who has seemingly fiddled while the Bruins program has burned. UCLA is 130th in YPP (4.11), 127th in rushing (2.23 YPC, 1 TD) and 109th in touchdowns (6). And Chip Kelly is supposed to be an offensive coach. The scheme is bad, the personnel is subpar, and now the effort looks to be waning. If UCLA doesn't show a little bit of resistance defensively against a Wazzu offense averaging nearly nine yards per play (second nationally) then it could be looking at a winless campaign as there aren't many chances for victory remaining. Cougars QB Anthony Gordon has been nails, tossing 12 touchdowns and completing a ridiculous 78.7 percent of his passes. Wazzu has won two straight but lost the previous five meetings while UCLA has dropped three straight Pac-12 road openers, by an average of 16 points.
Air Force (2-0) at (20) Boise State (3-0) (Sept. 20): It's been home sweet home in this series as the host has gone 5-2 in the last seven meetings. Defense will take center stage as Air Force is allowing just 3.89 YPP (eighth nationally) and Boise State has 27 tackles for loss in three games (ninth in FBS). Air Force is led by LB Kyle Johnson, who is all over the field in the Falcons active 3-4 scheme. Johnson can run laterally and avoids traffic quite well. He's not quite the beast that Boise's Curtis Weaver is -- only one of the top pressure-producers in America. The third-highest graded edge rusher by PFF, Weaver has 21 pressures and six sacks, tied for most in the nation.
Old Dominion (1-1) at (21) Virginia (3-0): This is the highest ranking for UVA since 2007, when it rose to No. 16 in the Associated Press poll, but it needs to be careful not to overlook the Monarchs with Notre Dame up next. Virginia is the epitome of balanced offense, with 100 running plays and 110 passes, and though not terribly explosive is hard to defend. Bryce Perkins is one of the top dual threat quarterbacks in America and leads the squad in rushing and passing. ODU has had trouble getting on the scoreboard (20.5 ppg) and may find tough going against the Cavaliers stingy defense. UVA is just 1-3 against current CUSA teams, but 5-1 vs Group of Five teams under Bronco Mendenhall. 
(22) Washington (2-1) at BYU (2-1): This is a tricky set up for the Huskies, who face USC next week and who lost to the Cougars the last time they traveled to Provo. Jacob Eason looked good last weekend against Hawaii but floundered against Cal a week earlier. BYU has four interceptions this season and is solid (54 percent TD rate) at limiting teams to field goals in the red zone. The Huskies will look to go through the air as they are just 50th nationally running the football. UW leads the series 6-4 and have won two straight, both by less than eight points.
(23) Cal (3-0) at Ole Miss (2-1): Two teams limited offensively face off in Oxford, in a contest that will likely come down to manufacturing points. Ole Miss is aggressive on defense and ranks in the top 10 in tackles for loss, so Cal will need to win the field position battle. The Golden Bears are top 10 vs the pass and will look to bait Rebels quarterback Matt Corral into mistakes. Ole Miss will need to keep tabs on Cal LB Evan Weaver, the nation's leading tackler and a three-down force. The teams have met once before, with Cal winning at home in 2017. Ole Miss is 9-2 in non-conference play under Matt Luke. 
Colorado (2-1) at (24) Arizona State (3-0): The Buffs are coming off of what some might consider a surprising home loss to Air Force, but dig a bit deeper and you'll find a team struggling to find an offensive identity. CU can't run the ball and is middle of the pack throwing it, and it will be going up against a top 20 defense in ASU. The Sun Devils got out of East Lansing with a controversial victory and look to start 4-0 for the first time since 2016. ASU is 27-12 in Pac-12 home games. 
SMU (3-0) at (25) TCU (2-0): One of the underrated trophy games in America, these teams battle for the Iron Skillet for the 99th time. The Mustangs have lost seven in a row and haven't beaten a ranked Power 5 opponent since 1986, but QB Shane Buechele and a deep receiving corps will attempt to change that. The Horned Frogs rank 12th nationally in pass defense and have allowed just one touchdown through the air so far this season. If TCU can find any semblance of a passing game (49.3 percent completions, 5.2 YPA) they will be a tough out.

TAKE FIVE (Games featuring unranked teams):
Utah State (1-1) at San Diego State (3-0): The Aztecs have dominated this series, winning 12 of the last 13 and and 10 in a row. Their last loss to the Aggies was in 1967, and if they get it done this week it will be behind the force of a ferocious defense that ranks in the top 20 in total yards, sacks and turnover margin. Linebacker Kyahva Tezino is the linchpin of a stop unit that allows just 3.89 yards per play. The Aggies are eighth nationally in yards per play and have done a great job protecting quarterback Jordan Love, allowing just two sacks. Don't be surprised if the Aztecs play field position football on offense and bring the heat on defense.
Michigan State (2-1) at Northwestern (1-1): Both teams are known for fierce defense and stagnant offense, so it's a bit surprising to learn that the average score of the last three meetings is 41-30 in favor of Sparty. MSU has offensive line issues to worry about, as well as the frustration of knowing officials botched a call late that would have allowed a chance to send last weekend's tilt with Arizona State into overtime. Will that frustration linger? Hunter Johnson has been erratic at quarterback for Northwestern, but freshman running back Drake Anderson has been a godsend, averaging 73 YPG and coming off of a career-best 141 last weekend against UNLV. The home team has won just 2 of the last 12 meetings. 
Appalachian State (2-0) at North Carolina (2-1): An explosive (7.22 YPP) Mountaineers offense will look to exploit a Tar Heels that gives up a lot of yards (5.66 YPP) but not a ton of points (23.0). UNC has been good at getting foes off the field on third down (28.9 percent) but bad at giving up pressure on offense (13 sacks). The Tar Heels haven't hosted a G5 team since 2014 and are 22-9 at home vs non-league foes since 2009. UNC is beaten up on offense, especially along the offensive line. That could play to the advantage of App State's smaller, quicker defensive linemen. 
Kentucky (2-1) at Mississippi State (2-1): Both squads are coming off frustrating losses in which they watched second half leads evaporate. The Wildcats are just 2-8 in the series and their last win in Starkville was in 2008. UK QB Sawyer Smith played well in his first start after taking over for injured Terry Wilson, but Bulldogs signal-caller Tommy Stevens was erratic. MSU's normally stout defense allowed 31 points to Kansas State, many coming off of turnovers. 
West Virginia (2-1) at Kansas (2-1): Two of the top new coaching hires -- WVU's Neal Brown and Kansas' Les Miles -- face off in this Big 12 showdown that could give one squad positive momentum. History has not been kind to the Jayhawks, who have lost five straight in the series, and nine straight conference openers. The Mountaineers are getting it done with defense (4.65 YPP, 9 sacks) while the Jayhawks have been able to move the ball (6.24 YPP) and shown explosiveness (19 plays of 20+ yards, 18th nationally).