Friday, October 25, 2019

College Football Whiparound Week 9

A huge SEC showdown takes place on Saturday when Auburn visits LSU. One thing is certain -- the Tigers will win (Kevin Cox/Getty Images)






(9) Auburn at (2) LSU -- This one looks to be sort of an elimination game in the SEC West, as the loser will have no margin for error in its quest to knock Alabama off the top of the mountain. Auburn has blown 20 point leads in back to back years against the Bayou Bengals, and haven't won in Baton Rouge since 1999. LSU's lethal offense faces what should be its biggest defensive test of the season, but Joe Burrow and his crew have so far made all opposition look silly.Auburn hasn't won in Baton Rouge in 20 years, but has the kind of defense that can throw LSU off of its game. LSU's D isn't nearly as good as in years past, but Auburn is pretty one dimensional with QB Bo Nix unable to throw the football consistently. Tiger Stadium will be absolutely off the chain for this one, especially since it would give LSU huge momentum heading into an off week before facing Alabama.
(13) Wisconsin at (3) Ohio State -- What was supposed to be the Big Ten game of the year to this point won't materialize, because the Badgers didn't hold up their end of the deal. Wisconsin's shocking loss at Illinois took a bit of the shine from this contest, but it is still a big one for both squads. For the Badgers, it's a chance to show that last week was one huge fluke, and for the Buckeyes it's a chance to prove further that they are the most complete team in the nation. The UW defense is legit, and if OSU puts up huge numbers against this group maybe it will stop the naysayers from shouting "who have they played? -- even though their SOS is the best among the top contenders. The Badgers should bring their best to Ohio Stadium -- whether that's enough to topple the Buckeyes remains to be seen.
(8) Notre Dame at (19) Michigan -- The Wolverines came up short a week ago at Penn State, but had a solid second half and nearly tied the game in the final moments before seeing a touchdown dropped in the end zone. UM will attempt to build on that half against the Irish, who come in rested after an off week. This is a great traditional rivalry that doesn't get played enough, so it's nice to see these teams hooking up. Notre Dame has won three of the last four, but the home team has won five in a row. And it would be just like the Wolverines to win a game that no one believes they have a chance to take.
(1) Alabama at Arkansas -- No Tua? Should be no problem for the Tide, which will lean heavily on Najee Harris and Brian Robinson to run the football at an Arkansas defense that ranks 103rd nationally in YPC (4.8). Mac Jones will simply be asked to manage the game in Tagovailoa's absence, and when he throws it will be easy stuff that allows his stunningly deep receiving corps to make plays in space. The Tide have won 11 straight in the series, including six in a row in Fayetteville. 
Boston College at (4) Clemson-- Don't look now, but the Tigers could be rounding into form. That's bad news for an Eagles team that lost starting quarterback Anthony Brown for the season, and which hasn't beaten Clemson on the road since 2007. The Tigers will look to bring a ton of heat at Dennis Grosel, whose head will likely be spinning as he has precious little time to operate. BC ranks 95th in total defense, including 104th against the pass, and could be just the tonic for Trevor Lawrence, who has been up and down in his sophomore campaign. 
(5) Oklahoma at Kansas State -- The Wildcats haven't topped Oklahoma at home since 1996, and have beaten the Sooners just three times anywhere since 2000. KSU has the look of a hard-nosed team, but ranks 90th on defense -- a fact that has the top-ranked Sooners offense licking their chops. KSU tries to make opposing offenses work for everything, but Oklahoma looks to have too much speed and too many athletes for that to happen. KSU did lead for most of the game the last time these teams met in Manhattan before Oklahoma scored the game-winning touchdown with seven seconds left. So maybe that's a ray of hope for the home team.  
(6) Penn State at Michigan State -- Sparty has won five of the last six meetings and always has one out of the blue upset that most don't see coming. Penn State is coming off of an emotional win over Michigan last weekend, a game in which the Wolverines figured some things out against the Nittany Lions defense. Penn State has had problems running the ball the last two weeks and ranks just 55th in rushing offense, so will need to find some holes in a Spartans secondary that has been very forgiving the last three games -- six TDs, one INT, 77.4 completion percentage. Michigan State is plus-5 in turnovers vs Penn State since 2015. 
Washington State at (11) Oregon --The Ducks have won eight of the last 12 meetings, but have dropped four straight to the Cougars. Oregon is coming off a thrilling road victory over Washington and has USC next, so there a chance it could be looking past a Wazzu team that has lost three of its last four -- including losses in both of its prior games against ranked teams. Justin Herbert and Anthony Gordon will take center stage, but Herbert may have the edge going against a pass defense that ranks 113th nationally in yards per pass allowed. A win for the Ducks all but clinches a  Pac-12 North Division title.
California at (12) Utah -- The Pac-12 is supposed to be a finesse league, but this contest should be a throwbck to the days when 17-13 games were the rule and not the exception. The Utes and Bears are each top 30 nationally on defense, but Utah has a big edge on offense with quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss. Cal hasn't scored more than 28 points in a game this season, and has averaged just 13.6 in its last three games. Devon Modster hasn't gotten it done under center in relief of injured Chase Garbers, and the Utes should be able to dictate terms on defense. Utah has won three straight at home in the series and four of the last six meetings. Utah needs to keep winning if it wants to take home the South Division crown, so urgency will be a factor in this one.
(15) Texas at TCU --The Horned Frogs have taken four of the last five contests, and it would be very Texas-like for the Longhorns to drop this game. Nearly all of the numbers point to UT, including efficiency, turnovers and red zone proficiency. That last one especially could loom large as TCU ranks 124th in opponents red zone touchdown percentage (77.8 percent). This has been a second straight underachieving season for TCU, which has had offensive issues galore and hasn't found any kind of consistency from the quarterback spot. Even if Texas isn't sharp for this one, you have to think Sam Ehlinger will make enough plays to get his team through. 
Maryland at (17) Minnesota -- The Gophers have been a force on offense, scoring at least 34 points in six of their seven victories. The defense started off very average but has improved in recent weeks, though the opposition has gotten softer. Maryland should have quarterback Joshua Jackson and tailback Anthony McFarland back for this game, which enhances the offense greatly. The Gophers have won 11 of their last 17 in Minneapolis but lost at home to the Terps in 2017. Minnesota is still looking for national legitimacy but probably won't get it after this week. But looming up ahead is plenty of opportunity -- Penn State at home, and then a road trip to Iowa. If the Gophers come through those games on top, you can bet America will stand up and take notice. 
(20) Iowa at Northwestern --This game was circled by many at the start of the year as a division shaping contest, but the Hawkeyes are the only ones who have actually lived up to expectations. Iowa has its usual stout defense and somewhat plodding offense, but the Wildcats have been abysmal with the football -- 128th in the country in scoring at just 12.5 per game. Iowa is not a team you get healthy against, and you have to wonder if Pat Fitzgerald's troops have started to look ahead to next season. Northwestern has won the last three meetings, all in throwback, defensive fashion, and it will have to hope that the Hawkeyes have another four-turnover contest (as they did in a 10-3 loss to Michigan) if it wants a legit chance at victory.
(21) Appalachian State at South Alabama -- This one screams mismatch -- App State is top 10 in scoring, the Jags are bottom six -- which means maybe there's a tendency to look past the hosts and ahead to rival Georgia Southern. But the Mountaineers are still vying for the G5 NY6 berth, and staying unblemished is the most likely way to snag it. Zac Thomas has been uber efficient running the offense and is the engine that makes the A-Train go. App State is deadly in the red zone, scoring a touchdown on all but three of its 28 trips.
Oklahoma State at (23) Iowa State -- The Cyclones are getting hot at the right time, blowing away their last three foes and sitting squarely in the mix for the Big 12 crown. ISU -- only three points from an unbeaten season -- has allowed just three touchdowns at home this season, but will need to be on point against a Cowboys team that has explosiveness in running back Chuba Hubbard and receiver Tylan Wallace. Iowa State can counter with Brock Purdy, who isn't getting enough love nationally despite ranking fifth in passing, and backfield revelation Breece Hall, who has gone for 100-plus yards in each of the last two games, with five touchdowns. Iowa State should be focused here, as an off week awaits before a season-defining trip to Oklahoma. The home team in this series has won eight of the last 13, usually in high-scoring fashion. 
(24) Arizona State at UCLA -- Typically a hard-fought series -- average margin in the last three games is four points -- this year it's two teams heading opposite directions. Surprisingly, both are .500 in league play. The Sun Devils were embarrassed last week at Utah, but have taken the measure of Cal and Michigan State on the road this season. The Bruins have dropped all three of their contests at home in 2019, by an average of nearly 20 points per game. The defense has been especially bad, allowing 41 plays of 20-plus yards, and has yielded a nation's high 21 touchdowns through the air. Think Jayden Daniels and Brandon Ayiuk aren't salivating at this matchup?

TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
USC at Colorado (Friday) -- If ever the Buffs are going to beat the Trojans, this would be the year. Winless in 13 meetings against USC, Colorado started the season with three wins in four games, including an upset of Arizona State. But the offense has gone south recently, scoring just 13 points in its last two games. USC didn't embarrass itself at Notre Dame (30-27 loss) and blasted an Arizona team that looked to be surging last weekend. But there are still concerns about a defense that has allowed fewer than 20 points just once this season. The four games have been won by an average of 8 points per contest, but the Buffs are just 8-8 at home in their last 16 contests. USC is tied with Utah in the Pac-12 South but has an edge thanks to a head to head victory, so a win here would bring them closer to what many felt was an impossible goal. 
Virginia at Louisville -- Since 2012 Virginia is a shocking 5-25 on the road in ACC play. Despite an active, stellar defense, the Cavs often allow teams to hang around way longer than they should, and the Cardinals are an improving bunch who have broken off 42 plays of 20-plus yards this season. While limited last week against Clemson, Louisville scored 62 against Wake Forest and 41 against Boston College, so there is potential. The problem is a defense that's atrocious -- a defense that Bryce Perkins and his receiving crew can take easy advantage of. Louisville has not allowed fewer than 35 points in Power 5 play this season, so it will have to hope it can outscore the visitors, who still have designs on winning the Coastal Division crown. 
Tulane at Navy - A sneaky good AAC West battle goes down in Annapolis, with the resurgent Middies coming in winning three straight and four of the last five in the series. Quarterback Malcolm Perry has been excellent running the Navy attack, and could find some room against a Tulane rush defense that ranks 59th nationally in YPC allowed (4.02). Navy leads the country in red zone touchdown percentage, scoring 21 times on 22 trips, but the Green Wave have been nearly as good, hitting paydirt 19 times in 23 journeys to the red zone. Tulane ranks in the nation's top 10 in rushing, thanks to dual threat quarterback Justin McMillan (7 rush TDs) and speedy running back Corey Dauphine (10.4 YPC). The winner stays within shouting distance of SMU, who plays these teams in back to back weeks to close out the regular season. 
UCF at Temple -- Another AAC battle, these teams have split the last four meetings. The teams share similar defensive profiles, but the Knights have a decided advantage on offense, ranking top 10 nationally in Yards Per Play. Temple has home victories over Maryland, Georgia Tech and Memphis this season and have won eight of its last 10 home contests dating back to last season. The Owls have been hampered by inconsistent play at quarterback, alternating Anthony Russo and Todd Centaio on an almost weekly basis. Both will play, Centaio is the bigger dual threat. UCF is second nationally in plays of 20-plus yards (54) while Temple has allowed only 24. So something has to give. The winner of this contest stays in the race for East Division honors. 
Utah State at Air Force -- The Falcons looked to be in a potentially tough spot last week at Hawaii, losing quarterback Donald Hammond to injury, but backup Mike Schmidt was fabulous in relief, rushing for 120 yards and three scores and completing five of six passes for 147 yards and a touchdown. Aggies quarterback Jordan Love entered the season with all sorts of buzz, even being talked about as a first-round possibility. His production has not matched the talk, as Love is completing less than 59 percent of his throws and has tossed nine interceptions. Utah State has won four of its last five, including an upset of San Diego State early in the season, on the shoulders of a top 40 defensive unit. The Aggies are 22nd against the run, allowing just 3.19 YPC, but will be tested by an Air Force attack that averages 5.3 YPC and leads the nation in rushing scores with 27. Utah State has been dreadful in the red zone, ranking last in conversion percentage with just 8 touchdowns in 24 trips inside the opponents 20 yard line.

Friday, October 4, 2019

College Football Whiparound Week 6

Auburn heads to Florida to take on the Gators in a battle of SEC unbeatens (Saturday Down South)
(7) Auburn at (10) Florida: Typically a low-scoring, down to the wire contest, this SEC showdown will feature all kinds of defensive stars, and keep one team on the path to an undefeated season. Three of the last five meetings were decided by a field goal. The Gators have won four of the last five in Gainesville, and are tied for second nationally in sacks. That's important because Auburn freshman QB Bo Nix is 99th in the country in passer rating when blitzed, so look for Todd Grantham to bring the heat early and often -- and the Gators can get to the QB, as evidenced by their 24 sacks. Auburn has just one interception on the season and has allowed seven touchdowns through the air, so don't be surprised to see Florida taking some shots early.QB Kyle Trask has filled in nicely for the injured Feleipe Franks, tossing five TDs and completing over 77 percent of his throws.
(23) Michigan State at (4) Ohio State: The Buckeyes have won six of the last seven played in Columbus and 12 of the last 15 meetings, which includes a 48-3 shellacking in 2017. Michigan State just squeaked past Indiana last weekend but could have problems up front as they are down four offensive linemen. It's gotten so bad that defensive lineman JD Duplain has moved over to the offense, and that could be a real problem given the Buckeyes depth and tenacity along the defensive front. While Brian Lewerke leads the league in passing yards, he's completing less than 60 percent of his passes on the season. MSU has found a running threat in freshman Elijah Collins (5.3 YPC), which may help take the air out of the ball. The Buckeyes lead the nation in scoring margin as well as sack rate and stuff rate, so it could be tough going all around for the visitors. 
(14) Iowa at (19) Michigan: Could this be the start of a precipitous slide for the Wolverines? If recent history is any indication UM should be on high alert as the Hawkeyes have won five of the last six meetings, which includes three of the last four in Ann Arbor. Both teams are stout on defense, but the Wolverines have been anemic on offense, averaging just 5.54 yards per play (84th nationally). UM also has just 15 runs of 10+ yards this season and really needs the ground game to get going. The Hawkeyes have been great getting foes off the field, ranking eighth in FBS in opponent third down conversions, and could have success against the pass as they rank in the top 20 in yards allowed and have given up just four touchdowns. 
(3) Georgia at Tennessee: This one should be easy -- the Bulldogs rank among the nation's best in both offense and defense, get after the passer and protect the quarterback as well as any team in the country. The Vols are 88th in total offense and have issues at quarterback, and have won just twice in the last nine contests. There could be a surprise or two as this series has traditionally been close -- other than the last two Georgia blowouts, the previous six meetings had an average MOV of five points. 
Utah State at (5) LSU: The battle of quarterbacks Jordan Love and Joe Burrow should be worth the price of admission, even if the game is likely to be a blowout. LSU has won both prior meetings and is 8-1 against current Mountain West foes. The Tigers are doing things backward this year, touting a red-hot offense (fifth nationally at 7.99 YPP), led by Burrow's 17 touchdown passes. The Aggies are 1-11 the last six years in non-league road games, but could put up some points against an LSU defense that hasn't quite been up to par. Love is completing nearly 65 percent of his passes, but has tossed five INTs to just six touchdowns. The Aggies will have to hope they can run the ball with Jaylen Warren and Gerold Bright, averaging a combined 6 YPC. 
(6) Oklahoma at Kansas: The Jayhawks haven't beaten the Sooners since 1997, the last of three straight victories in the series. Oklahoma is laser-focused and knows that Texas is next up, so it would love nothing more than to make another statement this week. Jalen Hurts is among the Heisman Trophy leaders, but may have shoulder a bit more of the running load if RB Kennedy Brooks is limited (leg injury sustained last week vs Texas Tech). Kansas has its own issues, as leading rusher Khalil Herbert (nearly 9 YPC) is no longer part of the program after deciding to sit out last weekend's loss to TCU. That will put the spotlight on Pooka Williams, who dazzled last year as a freshman but has looked ordinary this year. Oklahoma has averaged 52 points in the last five meetings with Kansas, and shouldn't have much trouble hitting that this weekend. 
Kent State at (8) Wisconsin: The Flashes are 98th in YPP on defense, which means the Badgers should be able to run, pass, kick and crawl their way to a big victory. The Badgers haven't hosted two MAC schools in the same season since 1992, and won both of those big. Wisconsin already has a win over Central Michigan earlier this season, and should be able to use this game as a showcase to get running back Jonathan Taylor back in the Heisman Trophy mix after having one of his least productive games -- relatively speaking -- last week against Northwestern (one TD, 4.83 YPC, the first time this season he's been under 5 YPC). 
Bowling Green at (9) Notre Dame: The Irish have never lost to a MAC team in seven contests, and the first won't come in this meeting with the Falcons. BG is 119th in YPP on offense and 122 on defense, and are outclassed at every turn. The Irish should be able to do whatever they want, though they have had a recent habit of playing down to competition, and beat MAC foe Ball State by just eight points last season.
(11) Texas at West Virginia: The Longhorns have two of the last three played in Morgantown, but come in with a banged-up defense, especially in the secondary. Caden Sterns, Jalen Green and Josh Thompson are all out, Thompson for the rest of the season due to a foot injury. That could mean big things for WVU WR Sam James (26 catches, 1 TD) against a UT pass D that ranks 106th nationally. If Texas can shut down the passing game it will be in good shape because WVU has lacked explosiveness most of the season. The Mountaineers have allowed eight TDs through the air, which should make Devin Duvernay's eyes light up. The senior wideout has 39 grabs and four TDs and has yet to drop a single target this season.
Purdue at (12) Penn State: Purdue will not have quarterback Elijah Sindelar or dynamic wideout Rondale Moore for this game, and they were just about the only chance the Boilermakers had of keeping the contest close. Penn State has won eight straight, with only the 2011 game being less than a one-score contest. This is the last "breather" for the Nittany Lions for awhile as the next three are Iowa, Michigan and Michigan State. Penn State should be able to do what it wants to in this one. 
Cal at (13) Oregon: The Bears lead the series 41-39 but have dropped nine of the last 10, including five straight in Eugene. Both teams play excellent defense -- Oregon ranking fifth nationally in YPP at 3.89 and Cal giving up 4.89. So every yard will have to be earned. The Ducks are much more dynamic on offense, ranking 27th in YPP, and QB Justin Herbert has 14 touchdowns to zero interceptions on the season. So the Bears top-notch secondary will definitely be tested, though LB Evan Weaver will once again be all over the field making just about every tackle. Cal QB Chase Garbers was knocked out of the last game, leaving UCLA transfer Devon Modster in charge. He was just five-of-14 last week against Arizona State, so Justin Wilcox will need to get creative on offense if Cal wants to find the end zone.
(15) Washington at Stanford: Another close Pac-12 series, with the Huskies holding a 43-42-4 edge. Stanford has won four of the last six meetings, and Washington hasn't won in Palo Alto since 2007. Washington has gotten steady, sometimes spectacular, play from QB Jacob Eason, and he could have a big day against a Stanford defense ranked 115th in the country in YPP. Cardinal QB KJ Costello is out, which means Davis Mills gets the start. He's been OK, throwing 4 TDs to just one pick, but can't challenge defenses deep the way Costello can. Stanford averages just 3.59 yards per carry, and the Huskies haven't been very good against the run (7 TDs allowed). So if Stanford can be balanced on offense it could have a puncher's chance to win.
(16) Boise State at UNLV: The Broncos have averaged 44 points per contest in a five-game winning streak, and should once again be able to push the Rebels around. UNLV lacks punch on offense, while Boise brings a ferocious defense to the table. That's not optimum for the home team, which has failed to score more than 17 points in each of the last three games. Boise State has done well getting to the passer (13th nationally) and should have ample opportunity for big plays as UNLV has allowed 22 plays of 20-plus yards and 15 of 30-plus.
(18) UCF at Cincinnati (Oct. 4): The teams have met just four times, the Knights taking each of the last three in convincing fashion. Both squads have been stingy on defense, ranking in the top 30, while the Knights have a decided edge on offense (seventh in FBS). Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel has played beyond his years, tossing 14 TDs to just two picks and showing an affinity for the downfield throw. Cincinnati wants to run the football with Michael Warren III but hasn't been good at it this year, averaging just 4.1 yards per carry as a team. Cincinnati has been stout in the red zone, ranking 14th in opponents scoring percentage, and has allowed just 39 plays of 10-plus yards, 13th best in the nation. That will be challenged mightily by the Knight big play offense, but UCF has been susceptible to the big play, allowing 77 gains of 10-plus yards (113th). Maybe the home atmosphere allows the Bearcats to break a play or two because it's questionable whether they can grind things out against a talented UCF defense. 
(21) Oklahoma State at Texas Tech: The Cowboys have won nine of the last 10 and five in a row in Lubbock, and making things tougher for the Red Raiders is that QB Alan Bowman will be out a few more weeks after suffering a shoulder injury in September. OSU is 14th in the country in YPP (7.04), including averaging over 6 yards per rush. Chuba Hubbard has been a man in the backfield, going over 200 yards three times already this season, and leads the country in yards (938) and touchdowns (10). Quarterback Spencer Sanders hasn't played like a freshman, completing 64.5 percent of his passes and showing an ability to burn teams with his legs (380 yards, 2 TDs).
Tulsa at (24) SMU: The Mustangs are ranked for the first time since 1987, it's last season of competition before getting the death penalty for a pay for play scandal. SMU is doing it on both offense, ranking in the top 35 nationally in both total offense and defense. The addition of Shane Buechele at quarterback has breathed life into the offense. The Mustangs have 25 passing plays over 20 yards and 16 over 30 yards, but Tulsa has been solid against the pass, allowing just four touchdowns on the season. SMU has lost four of the last five meetings, but the home team has won three in a row. A win here sets up the Ponies for a grueling stretch run, with road trips to Houston and Memphis in consecutive weeks beginning in late October.

TAKE FIVE (Games Featuring Unranked Teams)
Baylor at Kansas State: An underrated Big 12 series, the Wildcats lead 9-7 and will look to rebound from last year's narrow 37-34 setback in Waco. Both teams prefer to run the football, but are disciplined when throwing it -- they've combined for 15 TDs and zero interceptions. Baylor ranks 8th in third down conversions while KSU is third in stopping third down conversions, so whichever of those two units wins the battle likely wins the game. 
TCU at Iowa State: The Horned Frogs have won three of the last four meetings in Ames but will have their hands full with a Cyclones bunch that knows it let one slip away last weekend against Baylor. The Cyclones will look to QB Brock Purdy to do damage through the air but could have issues dealing with TCU's lockdown pass D, which is allowing only 50 percent completions and four touchdowns this season. TCU RB Darius Anderson is sixth nationally running the ball and averages over eight yards per pop. The Cyclones are teetering on the brink of irrelevance in the Big 12 with a loss in this game, so expect a renewed focus.
Tulane at Army: The visitor has won four of the last five meetings, but Army has taken four of the last six --so something has to give. The Black Knights are coming off of an idle week while Tulane had a long week after scoring late to knock off Houston Sept. 26th. Both teams are in the top 10 in rushing, but Tulane has been a bit more susceptible to the big play.
Air Force at Navy: Fans love Army-Navy, but this one is a part of the Commander In Chief's trophy, and Navy has taken 11 of the last 15 contests. Both teams have been stout on defense, allowing less than 10 plays of 10+ yards this season, and rank first (Navy) and second in rushing yards per game. Don't be shock if there's a little trickery here and the passing game ends up deciding the contest -- both teams average over 11 yards per attempt.
Western Michigan at Toledo: A MAC West showdown that likely decides the winner of the division, the Broncos and Rockets have staged some shootouts in recent seasons. The Rockets have won seven of the last nine, and both of WMU's losses this season have been away from home. Broncos QB Jon Wassink has already tossed 10 TDs this season and loves pushing the ball downfield. Toledo QB Mitchell Guadagni completes 60 percent of his passes but is dangerous with his legs, averaging six yards per tote. WMU is just 1-3 in the Glass Bowl since 2011.

Friday, September 20, 2019

College Football Whiparound Week 4


The battle in the trenches will decide Saturday's contest between Notre Dame and Georgia (Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
After last weekend's mostly meh card, week 4 of the college football season heats up with three ranked vs. ranked contests -- chief among them a top 10 battle in Athens between Notre Dame and Georgia. The winner will have an inside track to a berth in the college football playoff while the loser will need to come out of choppy waters unscathed.

Here is our look at Week 4 of the college football season (all games Sept. 21 unless noted):

(7) Notre Dame (2-0) at (3) Georgia (3-0): The Bulldogs have won 15 straight games at home, but face their first true challenge of the year in the Fighting Irish. Georgia won 20-19 in South Bend in 2017 but the Irish are 3-1 in their last four contests against the SEC. This one will be won or lost in the trenches, and Georgia dominates in most of those categories. The Irish will be without top runner Jafar Armstrong, which could put more of the onus on QB Ian Book, who has yet to throw an interception and has six scoring tosses. The matchup of Chase Claypool and Georgia corner Eric Stokes will be one to watch, as Stokes is one of the best press corners in the country, which comes in handy against the 6-4 Claypool. Jake Fromm has taken a few more shots downfield this season (10.7 YPA) and has been smart with the football -- no interceptions and a 75 percent completion percentage. Georgia has won both of the prior meetings.
(8) Auburn (3-0) at (12) Texas A&M (2-1): The home team is just 1-6 in the last seven contests, but this is the beginning of a tough stretch for the Tigers, who have Mississippi State and Florida up next. Auburn's stingy defense (4.34 YPP) will be tested by A&M's explosive offense (6.48 YPP), and the Tigers have been good about putting opponents behind the chains (22 TFL). Auburn QB Bo Nix has been hot and cold, so the game may belong more to RB JaTarvious Whitlow (5.3 YPC, 3 TD). The Aggies offense is only as good as Kellen Mond, and he's been more good than bad this season. RB Isaiah Spiller has been a revelation as a freshman, averaging over 8 yards per carry, and he could be important in the time of possession battle.
(11) Michigan (2-0) at (13) Wisconsin (2-0): The Badgers have won 16 of their last 18 at Camp Randall, and present a big challenge to a Michigan team struggling to find an offensive identity. The Wolverines welcomed the bye week as it has dealt with injuries to OL Jon Runyan Jr and WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, both of whom are expected to suit up. The bye week also allowed UM to return to its favored 4-3 set after tweaking the D against unorthodox offenses. Wisconsin has yet to allow a point this season and looks more balanced on offense instead of simply featuring Jonathan Taylor. Don't get me wrong, he's been great -- 6.77 YPC, 5 TDs and 118.5 yards per contest -- but junior QB Jack Coan has done something Alex Hornibrook could never do -- value the football. Coan has completed 76 percent of his passes with five TDs and zero interceptions, so Michigan cannot just load up against Taylor. Michigan is just 8-6 away from home the last three seasons while Wisconsin is 17-3 at home.
Charlotte (2-1) at (1) Clemson (3-0): The chance to see Charlotte DE Alex Highsmith, who has four sacks and 5.5 TFL, will be welcome, but fans of the 49ers have little else to be optimistic about. Clemson has looked better and better each week, and have a 36-game winning streak vs non-P5 opponents (last loss was to Marshall in 2009). Charlotte can get to the quarterback but allows 5.18 YPC on the ground, which means Travis Etienne should have a big day.Clemson hasn't quite gotten things cranked up yet, so it may want to show that it is ready to defend its national championship by pulling out all the stops against Charlotte
Southern Miss (2-1) at (2) Alabama (3-0): The Golden Eagles may want to try to slow the game down by running the football, which can be done against a Tide stop unit allowing over 5 YPC. Problem is that USM is averaging just 3.24 yards per carry and has just three rushing TDs -- two from quarterback Jack Abraham, who is a good one but will likely see pressure all afternoon. Southern Miss' 106th ranked pass defense has already allowed six touchdowns, and that number is sure to go up against Jeudy, Ruggs and crew. Alabama has won 19 in a row vs current CUSA members since 2001 -- though the last loss was to Southern Miss in 2000.
Vanderbilt (0-2) at (4) LSU (3-0): Transfers and experience meant preseason expectations for the Vandy offense, but the Commodores have been stuck in neutral so far, averaging just 5.23 YPP and 15 PPG. QB Riley Neal hasn't been bad, but RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn is averaging barely over 4 YPC and has a single touchdown. Neither Kalija Lipscomb nor Jared Pinkney, among the best in the SEC at their respective positions, have a touchdown. And to make matters worse, Vandy ranks 126th nationally in pass defense. You think Joe Burrow and his talented receiving corps aren't salivating at the prospect of facing a defense with zero sacks and just one interception? LSU has won seven straight in the series by an average of 17 ppg, and Vandy is just 7-22-1 vs LSU all time.
Miami (Ohio) (1-2) at (6) Ohio State (3-0): A final appetizer for the Buckeyes before the Big Ten slate begins, the Red Hawks shouldn't offer much resistance with a defense allowing nearly 400 yards per game. Justin Fields, JK Dobbins and the rest of the Buckeyes offense will look to continue their standout play, while the retooled defense looks to stay in the top 10. The Red Hawks failed to break 14 points against Iowa and Cincinnati, so points will be hard to come by against the swarming OSU stop unit. Look for Ohio State to make a statement with Nebraska on deck. Ohio State is 5-0 in the series and hasn't lost to an in-state foe since 1921. 
Tennessee (1-2) at (9) Florida (3-0): The series has been dominated by the Gators, who have won 13 of the last 14 and seven in a row. UF rallied for a road win over Kentucky last week despite losing QB Feleipe Franks to a season-ending injury. Kyle Trask played well in relief, completing nine of 13 and running the offense with confidence. Tennessee has been solid defensively, limiting explosive plays (only five plays have gone for 20+ yards) but has had trouble generating pressure (just six sacks). Jarret Guarantano has been solid at quarterback, with Jauan Jennings (17.3 YPC, 4 TDs) being his favorite target. The Gators, despite a wealth of talent in the secondary, can be had through the air -- if teams can avoid the pressure they bring (nation's best 16 sacks).
(10) Utah (3-0) at USC (2-1) (Sept 20): The continuation of a brutal stretch for the Trojans, who are coming off an overtime home loss to BYU and face Washington and Notre Dame on the road the next three weeks. Clay Helton could be feeling the heat if the Utes continue their stifling ways on defense -- top 10 in total defense and stingy in the red zone, allowing foes just two TDs in four trips. USC will have to hope it can make something happen with its Air Raid attack and frosh quarterback Kedon Slovis. The Utes are top 20 nationally in yards per play and have gotten stellar results from seniors Tyler Huntley (11.1 YPA, 4 TD, 0 INT) and Zack Moss (373 yards, 4 TDs, leading the nation in yards after contact). The home team has won six in a row and the Utes are just 11-7 away from home the last three seasons. 
Oklahoma State (3-0) at (12) Texas (2-1): If Texas wants to prove that it is truly back, it needs to beat the Cowboys -- which it hasn't done the last five times the teams have played in Austin. Texas has lost seven of the last nine meetings but may come up firing as a bye week follows. Both teams are forgiving on defense, though Texas has done a solid job taking the ball away (4 TOs). Oklahoma State is third nationally in third down conversions and has gotten excellent play from redshirt frosh quarterback Spencer Sanders (9-1 TD-INT9.7 YPA). Texas will look to its own warrior Sam Ehlinger, who has 11 TDs to zero picks and has run the ball less this season as his passing has improved.
(15) UCF (3-0) at Pittsburgh (1-2): The Knights go on the road in their continuing quest for respect, facing a Power 5 squad that lacks explosiveness but is solid enough on defense to have a puncher's chance. The Panthers took Penn State to the wire last weekend thanks to excellent defense, and their 12 sacks put them among the nation's top 10 in that category. If Pitt can effect freshman quarterback Dillon Gabriel it can stay in the game. Pitt lacks offensive explosiveness, so it will need to keep up its penchant for not allowing big plays (25 plays of 10+ yards, 19th nationally). Greg McCrae is lightning quick from the backfield and has three scores, while Gabriel Davis can stretch the defense (22.9 YPC, 3 TD). Pitt is 8-2 in non-league home games under Pat Narduzzi while the Knights are just 4-23 in regular season road contests against Power 5 schools. 
(16) Oregon (2-1) at Stanford (1-2): The Ducks have dropped five of the last seven meetings, including last year's heartbreaker when they fumbled late while trying to run out the clock. Stanford won in overtime, beginning a stretch for Oregon that meant three losses in five games and elimination from the Pac-12 race. The Ducks touted offensive line has lived up to billing, ranking first by Pro Football Focus through three weeks. Stanford's touted secondary has been exposed in consecutive losses, allowing 11.4 YPA against USC and 11.6 YPA against UCF. That has to make Justin Herbert's eyes light up. Injuries to the offense have rendered Stanford impotent on that side of the ball (4.97 YPP), and it may not get any better with the shaky status of quarterback KJ Costello and the season ending loss of OL Walker Little. 
UCLA (0-3) at (19) Washington State (3-0): How much of a mess is there in Westwood? So much that fans are applauding the retirement announcement of AD Dan Guerrero, who has seemingly fiddled while the Bruins program has burned. UCLA is 130th in YPP (4.11), 127th in rushing (2.23 YPC, 1 TD) and 109th in touchdowns (6). And Chip Kelly is supposed to be an offensive coach. The scheme is bad, the personnel is subpar, and now the effort looks to be waning. If UCLA doesn't show a little bit of resistance defensively against a Wazzu offense averaging nearly nine yards per play (second nationally) then it could be looking at a winless campaign as there aren't many chances for victory remaining. Cougars QB Anthony Gordon has been nails, tossing 12 touchdowns and completing a ridiculous 78.7 percent of his passes. Wazzu has won two straight but lost the previous five meetings while UCLA has dropped three straight Pac-12 road openers, by an average of 16 points.
Air Force (2-0) at (20) Boise State (3-0) (Sept. 20): It's been home sweet home in this series as the host has gone 5-2 in the last seven meetings. Defense will take center stage as Air Force is allowing just 3.89 YPP (eighth nationally) and Boise State has 27 tackles for loss in three games (ninth in FBS). Air Force is led by LB Kyle Johnson, who is all over the field in the Falcons active 3-4 scheme. Johnson can run laterally and avoids traffic quite well. He's not quite the beast that Boise's Curtis Weaver is -- only one of the top pressure-producers in America. The third-highest graded edge rusher by PFF, Weaver has 21 pressures and six sacks, tied for most in the nation.
Old Dominion (1-1) at (21) Virginia (3-0): This is the highest ranking for UVA since 2007, when it rose to No. 16 in the Associated Press poll, but it needs to be careful not to overlook the Monarchs with Notre Dame up next. Virginia is the epitome of balanced offense, with 100 running plays and 110 passes, and though not terribly explosive is hard to defend. Bryce Perkins is one of the top dual threat quarterbacks in America and leads the squad in rushing and passing. ODU has had trouble getting on the scoreboard (20.5 ppg) and may find tough going against the Cavaliers stingy defense. UVA is just 1-3 against current CUSA teams, but 5-1 vs Group of Five teams under Bronco Mendenhall. 
(22) Washington (2-1) at BYU (2-1): This is a tricky set up for the Huskies, who face USC next week and who lost to the Cougars the last time they traveled to Provo. Jacob Eason looked good last weekend against Hawaii but floundered against Cal a week earlier. BYU has four interceptions this season and is solid (54 percent TD rate) at limiting teams to field goals in the red zone. The Huskies will look to go through the air as they are just 50th nationally running the football. UW leads the series 6-4 and have won two straight, both by less than eight points.
(23) Cal (3-0) at Ole Miss (2-1): Two teams limited offensively face off in Oxford, in a contest that will likely come down to manufacturing points. Ole Miss is aggressive on defense and ranks in the top 10 in tackles for loss, so Cal will need to win the field position battle. The Golden Bears are top 10 vs the pass and will look to bait Rebels quarterback Matt Corral into mistakes. Ole Miss will need to keep tabs on Cal LB Evan Weaver, the nation's leading tackler and a three-down force. The teams have met once before, with Cal winning at home in 2017. Ole Miss is 9-2 in non-conference play under Matt Luke. 
Colorado (2-1) at (24) Arizona State (3-0): The Buffs are coming off of what some might consider a surprising home loss to Air Force, but dig a bit deeper and you'll find a team struggling to find an offensive identity. CU can't run the ball and is middle of the pack throwing it, and it will be going up against a top 20 defense in ASU. The Sun Devils got out of East Lansing with a controversial victory and look to start 4-0 for the first time since 2016. ASU is 27-12 in Pac-12 home games. 
SMU (3-0) at (25) TCU (2-0): One of the underrated trophy games in America, these teams battle for the Iron Skillet for the 99th time. The Mustangs have lost seven in a row and haven't beaten a ranked Power 5 opponent since 1986, but QB Shane Buechele and a deep receiving corps will attempt to change that. The Horned Frogs rank 12th nationally in pass defense and have allowed just one touchdown through the air so far this season. If TCU can find any semblance of a passing game (49.3 percent completions, 5.2 YPA) they will be a tough out.

TAKE FIVE (Games featuring unranked teams):
Utah State (1-1) at San Diego State (3-0): The Aztecs have dominated this series, winning 12 of the last 13 and and 10 in a row. Their last loss to the Aggies was in 1967, and if they get it done this week it will be behind the force of a ferocious defense that ranks in the top 20 in total yards, sacks and turnover margin. Linebacker Kyahva Tezino is the linchpin of a stop unit that allows just 3.89 yards per play. The Aggies are eighth nationally in yards per play and have done a great job protecting quarterback Jordan Love, allowing just two sacks. Don't be surprised if the Aztecs play field position football on offense and bring the heat on defense.
Michigan State (2-1) at Northwestern (1-1): Both teams are known for fierce defense and stagnant offense, so it's a bit surprising to learn that the average score of the last three meetings is 41-30 in favor of Sparty. MSU has offensive line issues to worry about, as well as the frustration of knowing officials botched a call late that would have allowed a chance to send last weekend's tilt with Arizona State into overtime. Will that frustration linger? Hunter Johnson has been erratic at quarterback for Northwestern, but freshman running back Drake Anderson has been a godsend, averaging 73 YPG and coming off of a career-best 141 last weekend against UNLV. The home team has won just 2 of the last 12 meetings. 
Appalachian State (2-0) at North Carolina (2-1): An explosive (7.22 YPP) Mountaineers offense will look to exploit a Tar Heels that gives up a lot of yards (5.66 YPP) but not a ton of points (23.0). UNC has been good at getting foes off the field on third down (28.9 percent) but bad at giving up pressure on offense (13 sacks). The Tar Heels haven't hosted a G5 team since 2014 and are 22-9 at home vs non-league foes since 2009. UNC is beaten up on offense, especially along the offensive line. That could play to the advantage of App State's smaller, quicker defensive linemen. 
Kentucky (2-1) at Mississippi State (2-1): Both squads are coming off frustrating losses in which they watched second half leads evaporate. The Wildcats are just 2-8 in the series and their last win in Starkville was in 2008. UK QB Sawyer Smith played well in his first start after taking over for injured Terry Wilson, but Bulldogs signal-caller Tommy Stevens was erratic. MSU's normally stout defense allowed 31 points to Kansas State, many coming off of turnovers. 
West Virginia (2-1) at Kansas (2-1): Two of the top new coaching hires -- WVU's Neal Brown and Kansas' Les Miles -- face off in this Big 12 showdown that could give one squad positive momentum. History has not been kind to the Jayhawks, who have lost five straight in the series, and nine straight conference openers. The Mountaineers are getting it done with defense (4.65 YPP, 9 sacks) while the Jayhawks have been able to move the ball (6.24 YPP) and shown explosiveness (19 plays of 20+ yards, 18th nationally).

Friday, September 13, 2019

College Football Whiparound Week 3

Syracuse upset Clemson last time the teams played in the Carrier Dome. They face off this Saturday (Rich Barnes/USATODAY)

In lieu of spotlighting one big game each week of the college football season, we're going to try something new -- a quick look at a number of games. Most will be games involving ranked teams, but there will be some matchups that are intersectional or intriguing because of brand names.

Week three is not a great one in terms of buzz, though we know how that goes -- when you think there won't be much of interest something always jumps up and surprises.

Here is our look at week three of the college football season:

FRIDAY
North Carolina (2-0) at Wake Forest (2-0): So let's see if I understand this -- two ACC teams are meeting in a NON-ACC game? Makes no sense, but it is what it is. Mack Brown has the Tar Heels brimming with optimism after two early wins, while Dave Clawson's Demon Deacons got off to a similar start with an opening win over Utah State, which some -- but not yours truly -- called an upset. The Tar Heels have gotten the better of things, winning seven of the last 10 at Wake. Someone will be a surprising unbeaten when this one is finished.
(20) Washington State (2-0) at Houston (1-1): Can we set the total on this one at 100? We saw what Oklahoma was able to do to UH, and now it's Anthony Gordon's turn to light up a porous defense. If Houston hasn't been able to shake off the disappointment of the Oklahoma loss this will be another long night.

SATURDAY
(1) Clemson (2-0) at Syracuse (1-1): Let's get this out of the way quickly -- Syracuse is NOT winning this game. The Orange are a wreck on defense, and Clemson is looking to get its passing game going. Maryland ran for 354 yards against Cuse last weekend, so you can bet Travis Etienne is licking his chops. Syracuse's offense has been very average and probably won't get well against Isaiah Simmons and company.
(2) Alabama (2-0) at South Carolina (1-1): The Tide are once again a mammoth favorite, but a couple of things to note -- the last time in Columbia in 2010 the Gamecocks won 35-21, and freshman QB Ryan Hilinski didn't look out of place in his first collegiate start a week ago. South Carolina's offense may score some points, but it's doubtful it has enough D to stop Tua and his jaw-dropping group of receivers. Alabama has won 15 straight when opening SEC play on the road.
Arkansas State (1-1) at (3) Georgia (2-0): The Bulldogs are 19-0 vs SBC foes, and will likely make it to 20 in fairly easy fashion. Georgia is explosive (8.13 YPP, fifth best nationally) and has been good on defense, albeit against vastly inferior competition. The Red Wolves haven't beaten an SEC team since 2008 (Texas A&M) and will look to slow the game down with RBs Marcel Murray and Ryan Graham, each averaging over 5 YPC. 
Northwestern State (0-2) at (4) LSU (2-0): There appears to be very little drama here, other than the possibility of a hangover following last week's statement win over Texas. Joe Burrow has been dynamite in the Tigers new spread offense, and while the defense was more forgiving than usual last weekend, it should be back to stifling against the Demons. LSU has won 30 straight games vs in-state foes since 1982.
(5) Oklahoma (2-0) at UCLA (0-2): The Bruins held a players-only meeting earlier this week, but that probably won't be much help against a Sooners squad that looks as lethal as ever on offense with Alabama transfer Jalen Hurts running the show. The Bruins have given up a lot of yardage but not a ton of points (23.5 ppg) but that could change this week unless they can find a way to control the clock on offense. The passing game has been non-existent, so UCLA may need to lean on a run game that has averaged less than 2 YPC against Cincinnati and San Diego State. UCLA has lost eight in a row to top 10 teams.
(6) Ohio State (2-0) at Indiana (2-0): Buckeyes fans often worry about the Hoosiers, yet the average margin of victory in the last five meetings is 19 points. The Hoosiers have put up flashy numbers against Ball State and Eastern Illinois but may not be ready for Justin Fields, JK Dobbins and the rest of the Buckeyes talent. Adding to the task is that the OSU defense once again looks fearsome. Indiana has lost 24 in a row to Ohio State.
New Mexico (1-0) at (7) Notre Dame (1-0): This one had a bit of intrigue as former ND coach Bob Davie is in charge of the Lobos, but a recent health scare will keep him from roaming the sidelines in South Bend. With or without Davie, the Lobos ain't winning this one. The Irish should be able to go deep into the roster. 
Kent State (1-1) at (8) Auburn (2-0): Another in the long line of "lambs being led to slaughter" games this week, the Flashes should be easy pickings for the Tigers. Auburn will once again play both Bo Nix and Joey Gatewood at QB, though at some point it will need to pick one and roll with him. Auburn has never lost in seven meetings with MAC foes.
(9) Florida (2-0) at Kentucky (2-0): This one is more about who won't be around than who will. The Wildcats lost QB Terry Wilson for the season with a knee injury in last weekend's contest with Eastern Michigan, so it's Troy transfer Sawyer Smith at the controls. That should make the ferocious Florida DL, led by Jabari Zuniga and Jon Greenard, salivate. The Gators are also down a couple of important pieces, CB CJ Henderson, who tweaked an ankle against UT Martin last weekend, and WR Kadarius Toney, who has an undisclosed upper body injury. While both are standouts, they will be easier to replace than Wilson due to Florida's superior depth.  Yeah, UK won a year ago, and played well enough to win in 2017, but the Gators haven't lost in Lexington since 1986.
Idaho State (1-0) at (11) Utah (2-0): Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss should be finished early as the Utes have far too much talent to be bothered by the Bengals. Utah has won its last 6 games vs FCS foes by an average of 45-8, and Idaho State dropped a 45-23 contest to Cal last season.
(12) Texas (1-1) at Rice (0-2): Technically a neutral site game as its being played at NRG Stadium in Houston, it should still be a confidence booster for the Longhorns. Texas has won 41 of the last 42 meetings and 13 straight, and showed last weekend in a loss to LSU that it can play with the big boys. This should be a chance to improve defensively for UT. 
Pittsburgh (1-1) at (13) Penn State (2-0): This classic rivalry turns 100 this year, but this is only the eighth time the teams have played since 1992. PSU has won nine of the last 11, and pulled away last year (51-6) after leading just 14-6 at halftime. Yards could be tough to come by as both teams are allowing right around 4 YPP, though Pitt has played better foes early. The Panthers will try to get it done on the ground, with the Davis boys (AJ and Vincent) doing the bulk of the legwork. The Nittany Lions will be more dynamic with quarterback Sean Clifford, who is averaging 12.4 YPA and has tossed six TDs to zero interceptions. 
Montana (2-0) at (15) Oregon (1-1): This looks to be an easy game for the Ducks, who put up 77 on Nevada last week and showed no ill effects from the opening week loss to Auburn. But don't be shocked if it turns out to be tricky -- the Grizzlies are ranked 20th in FCS, and a road game with Stanford looms next weekend for the Ducks, which means they could have one eye on Palo Alto.
Lamar (2-0) at (16) Texas A&M (1-1): The Aggies were understandably frustrated about their inability to move the ball against Clemson last week, but they should get healthy against the Cardinals. Kellen Mond wasn't at his best so look for the Ags to work on the passing game, especially with Auburn coming to town next weekend.
Stanford (1-1) at (17) UCF (2-0): Good news for Stanford as it will likely see the return of QB KJ Costello from a concussion suffered in the opening weekend. Costello is one of the best deep ball throwers in the land, which means UCF's top-notch corners Nevelle Clarke and Brandon Moore will be tested. UCF has been nails at home at Bright House Networks Stadium (74%), but is just 2-11 when hosting P5 schools. Stanford is 11-3-1 vs current AAC members, including the only other meeting between the teams in 2015 when the Knights went winless.
Arizona State (2-0) at (18) Michigan State (2-0): Defensive-minded coaches Herm Edwards and Mark Dantonio lead their teams into a rematch of last year's surprising 16-13 Sun Devils victory. ASU stumbled to a 19-7 victory over Sacramento State last weekend, getting a big play late from all-world running back Eno Benjamin. He may find tough sledding against the Spartans top-ranked rush defense, which is allowing minus-0.12 yards per game. ASU is has won just two of its last 11 road openers but are 21-13 all-time against current Big Ten members. Michigan State has allowed 21 points or less in 13 of its last 15 games.
(19) Iowa (2-0) at Iowa State (1-0): Who among us doesn't love the Cy-Hawk Trophy? It's on the line in Ames, and five of the last eight contests have been decided by six points or less so you can bank on a tight contest. The Hawkeyes took care of business against Rutgers while the Cyclones likely went back to the drawing board after an opening week triple overtime escape against Northern Iowa. The last time in Ames produced an overtime thriller, so buckle up. 
(21) Maryland (2-0) at Temple (1-0): The road team has been large and in charge in this series, winning four in a row. The Terps have won six of their last seven road openers, but Temple will be the best defense they have faced -- though it should be noted that the Owls opened the year with a win over FCS Bucknell. Temple's front seven is quick, but Maryland has a ton of playmakers on hand, including Virginia Tech transfer Josh Jackson at quarterback. Jackson has gone 7-1 TD-INT in his first two games and has run Mike Locksley's offense to perfection. Temple has won two of the last three in the series. 
Portland State (1-1) at (22) Boise State (2-0): The Broncos slogged their way to a seven point win over Marshall last time out but should have less trouble against the Vikings. Boise has won seven of the eight meetings and the teams haven't met since 2005. Look for DE Curtis Weaver and friends to make life difficult for Vikes QB Davis Alexander, and look for Broncos frosh QB Hank Bachmeier to make an early exit as his team takes care of business. Fun fact: Boise is one of just three teams in the country to not allow a point in the second half this season (Wisconsin and Navy are the other two).
Hawaii (2-0) at (23) Washington (1-1): There seems to be a "how did that happen?" moment each season for the Huskies, and last weekend was it. A long rain delay let to a sluggish performance from Jacob Eason and the offense, and Cal made enough plays on offense to hand UW its first league loss at home since 2016. The Huskies will want to take it out on the visiting Rainbow Warriors, but they can't be too aggressive or else UH quarterback Cole McDonald will put up big numbers. Washington has won the last two contests narrowly, including the last meeting in 2014 by a 17-16 score.
(24) USC (2-0) at BYU (1-1): A funny thing happened to Clay Helton on the way to unemployment -- he accidentally found a star at quarterback (frosh Kedon Slovis) and may have enough talent on hand to make a legit run at the Pac-12 South crown. First his Trojans will need to win in Provo, no easy feat but one that USC traditionally pulls off (Trojans are on a 13-4 run in season's first true road game). Zach Wilson engineered an overtime comeback at Tennessee last weekend and has the arm and moxie to keep the Cougars in the contest. BYU has never beaten USC but is 11-8 vs Pac-12 (minus Utah) since 2007. 
Florida State (1-1) at (25) Virginia (2-0): Here's a guess -- the Seminoles will play well in the first half before fading. That's what's happened in the first two contests, a loss to Boise State and a narrow (45-44) escape against Louisiana-Monroe last weekend. The Seminoles have had conditioning issues in both games, but Cam Akers came to life against ULM, rambling for 193 yards and two touchdowns. It will be much tougher against Cavaliers linebacker Jordan Mack and his mates. UVA quarterback Bryce Perkins could have a field day against an FSU defense that has looked lost far too often this season. Virginia is just 3-14 all-time vs FSU but has won two of the last five.

TAKE FIVE (Games featuring unranked teams)
SATURDAY
Kansas State (2-0) at Mississippi State (2-0): Chris Klieman has the Wildcats playing well on both sides of the ball, but this will be their first real test of the season. QB Skylar Thompson has been one of the best in the land and will be going against a Bulldogs pass D that hasn't exactly been resistant (7.6 YPA) and just three sacks. MSU could be without QB Tommy Stevens, which could tip the scales toward the visitors, but has RB Kylin Hill, he of the gaudy YPC (7.8) and hurdling ability. Mississippi State is 3-0 vs KSU, winning 31-10 a year ago in Manhattan, and has won nine of its last 10 non-league games.
Air Force (1-0) at Colorado (2-0): The Buffs are coming in on a high after the comeback victory over Nebraska, and have pretty much owned this series with five straight wins and a 12-4 advantage. Look for Steven Montez to utilize his numerous receiving weapons to challenge a stout Air Force pass defense (4.8 YPA), which will need to stick to its team first mentality as the Buffaloes have the more talented athletes.
Ohio (1-1) at Marshall (1-1): Two of the better G5 programs in the sport, the Herd will look to continue their dominance at home -- an .825 winning percentage is among the best in college football. Marshall wants to get it done on the ground with Brendan Knox and on defense, with a unit that allowed just 14 points to Boise State in week 2. Ohio has the best Canadian import since Labatt's in QB Nathan Rourke, and as he goes so go the Bobcats.
TCU (1-0) at Purdue (1-1): The Horned Frogs are sticking with their two QB rotation for now, which means fifth-year senior Alex Delton is likely to start but true freshman Max Duggan will have his chances. Duggan was at the controls for all three TCU touchdown drives in the opener against Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Jalen Reagor is typically the best receiver on the field but may take a backseat to Purdue's Rondale Moore, an electric presence averaging 12 grabs per game. His open field skill is second to none. Purdue will likely be without QB Elijah Sindelar, which means RS frosh Jack Plummer could get his first ever start. He's been likened to David Blough in mentality, which is a good thing. TCU has won 11 of its last 14 road openers, including five in a row.
Texas Tech (2-0) at Arizona (1-1): Another contest that could threaten to blow out the scoreboard lights, the Red Raiders (41.5 ppg) invade Tucson to take on the Wildcats (51.5), who righted the ship with a big win over Northern Arizona after an opening loss to Hawaii. Quarterbacks will be on display in this one, with Tech's Alan Bowman completing over 71 percent of his passes and tossing five TDs to just one interception and Arizona's Khalil Tate hitting over 64 percent with a gaudy 8.9 YPA. Tech has won 26 of the 32 matchups, but hasn't faced Arizona since 1989.

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Stakes Are High As Oregon, Auburn Battle


The noise from outside says that Oregon is facing not only Auburn, but battling relevance. The Pac-12 has been left out -- WAY out -- of the College Football Playoff discussion the last few seasons, and the Ducks are seen as one of the few teams in the league that might be able to change that in 2019.

Oregon's Justin Herbert (Steve Dykes/Getty Images)
The conference has been ribbed for being too finesse and defensively-challenged, almost a G5 league.

The Ducks don't want to hear any of that as they head into Saturday's battle with the Tigers, and they have done a good job leading up to the game of blocking out the criticisms and skeptics, and focusing on the task at hand. The game kicks off at 7:30 Eastern from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

"Well, I think the expectations inside never really change," Oregon coach Mario Cristobal said. "I think you always acknowledge what the noise is on the outside. When I say noise, I say that respectfully because I certainly respect the media and the choices and decisions made, but it never really factors into the process, never really factors into our preparation. I think the guys have understood pretty clearly when we prepare well and we focus on what we're doing, we're pretty good; and when we don't, we don't play very good. We've got to make sure that we are prepared mentally and have a mindset that's a different level. Help enhance the DNA.

“I think anytime you play a game you’re representing your conference, as well as your university, your community. But we don’t try to make it anything outside of us preparing as our program as we face a great opponent. So we really try to stay focused on just the simple stuff.”

Auburn played in this game a year ago, knocking off a Washington team that was expected to challenge for national honors. That experience could be a boost for the Tigers, who are breaking in a host of newcomers on offense, including at the quarterback spot. Dual-threat freshman Bo Nix won the job in fall camp and has a skill set that can cause problems for opponents. But this is also his first collegiate game, so you can rest assured Oregon will have some surprises in store for him.

"You are talking about a true freshman whose first start is against one of the best teams in the country," Auburn boss Gus Malzahn said. "College Gameday is going to be there and Kirk Herbstreit is going to be calling the game; it’s as big as it’s going to get. We need to be really good around him; that has been our message. I am just asking him to play and be himself. We are going to try to do some things he feels comfortable with. We are taking in a game plan that is really built around him and what his comfort zone is. I am excited for Bo and I know our team is, too. He has earned the right to lead us out there and we will see what happens."

Where Nix is dipping his toes into the collegiate waters for the first time, Oregon has a certified star running the offense in senior Justin Herbert. After toying with the idea of turning pro, Herbert chose to return to Eugene for his final campaign -- no doubt to become more consistent with his play. For all of the jaw-dropping throws he can make, he'll have nearly as many head-scratchers. That's something you hope would be out of the system by a fourth season, so there is a bit of pressure on Herbert.

The internal pressure Herbert is facing may not be as big as the external he'll face from Auburn's defensive line. In the discussion for best unit in America, the Tigers are strong and fast and bring a nasty attitude. Auburn finished in the top 20 in sacks in 2018 (38) and returns everyone, including maybe the best DE-DT  combo in America in Nick Coe and Derrick Brown. Coe is a special player, and is listed as both an edge rusher-LB and DT. Malzahn has said he will "move around" in Auburn's scheme and no doubt look to create havoc in whatever way he can.

"I think that is going to be a huge key," Malzahn said. "He can make all the throws and he’s got really good receivers to throw to, so you’ve got to make him uncomfortable. I think that is going to be a big key. Like I said really in the opening -- the line of scrimmage -- you know we need to win the line of scrimmage. That’s really where it starts for us and really where it starts for Auburn football and so that’s going to be a big key."

Herbert is being talked about as a potential number one overall draft pick after the season, and he certainly looks the part. At 6-6, 240, and possessing a howitzer on his right shoulder, Herbert will be the barometer for how well Oregon's offense does this season, though the hope is that his receivers help him out more than they did last year (52 drops, most in FBS). The Ducks have a pair of backs in CJ Verdell and Travis Dye who combined for nearly 2000 yards last year, and a receiving corps that's both new and experienced. Leading the way is Penn State transfer Juwan Johnson, who has the speed to run past corners and the size (6-5) to fend off physical safeties.

Oregon, which finished 9-4 last year, has the nation's most experienced offensive line, a quintet that has 153 starts between them. It's not often that the trench men get publicity, but this group merits it. Guard Shane Lemieux is one of the top guards in the nation, and tackle Calvin Throckmorton has played every position on the line for the Ducks. The unit can run and pass block equally well, and could make for Auburn's toughest challenge of the season.

Cristobal knows that the game could indeed be decided in the trenches.

Auburn's Derrick Brown (Auburn Athletics)
“There’s a lot of big bodies, a lot of big talented guys and certainly those are going to be some unbelievable bodies," he said. "The physicality on both sides is impressive to watch and I know that as competitors both sides are ready to get after it. But it’s more than that, I think the physicality of their corners, I think the physicality of their safeties, the speed and explosiveness of their linebackers, the power of their offensive line, the speed of their wide receivers – they have explosive players all over the place – their backs. I think there are so many battles, to say that it’s going to be just focused on one it’s hard to say. Of course, yeah, I know a lot of people, there’s going to be attention drawn to that, but I think across the board is you can expect a very physical game on both sides. A tremendous amount of respect for Auburn and how they do things."

The Ducks D is taking a backseat to the offense, but many eyes will be on true frosh edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, the nation's top overall recruit for 2019. Oregon managed just 29 sacks a year ago, a number that definitely needs to increase. Troy Dye is a tackling machine at middle linebacker, and the secondary is stocked with ballhawks, as the quartet picked off 12 of Oregon's 17 picks from last year. Corner Thomas Graham is one to watch.

While Nix is working out his jitters, he'll have the help of a deep and talented ground game. JaTarvious Whitlow will be first man up, but fans could see as many as five players toting the pigskin.

Eli Stove and Will Hastings are veterans in the receiving corps and are both back from medical redshirts, and Seth Williams has all-SEC ability after shining as a freshman with 26 catches and five scores. World class speedster Anthony Schwartz could be a game-time decision, and would add a true `Wow' component to the Tigers attack.

The offensive line returns all five starters, led by seniors Prince Tega Wanogho at left tackle and Mike Horton at right guard. The group struggled to open holes for the run game, but was solid in pass protection in 2018.

Auburn's defense is more than just Coe and Brown, however. Defensive end Marlon Davidson could blossom into a star this season, and safety Daniel Thomas is the leading returning tackler from last year and does a little bit of everything -- plays in the box, covers, hits like a truck.

There has been a lot of offseason talk about Malzahn's job security, especially after the Tigers went just 8-5 and were blasted by Georgia and Alabama. Another subpar season and it could be goodbye Gus, so getting off to a fast start is paramount -- especially with an early schedule that includes trips to Texas A&M and Florida

Malzahn expects his troops to be ready, and hopes the fans are, as well.

"We really appreciate our fans and we’re looking for a big turnout in Dallas," he said. "Last year against Washington, it was like a home-field advantage and we’re hoping for the same thing. This season, we want to make our fans proud, our former players proud with the way we play, that hard-nosed, physical, disciplined, good Auburn football. That’s been our message and that won’t just be our message this first game, but all season.

"Overall, we’re excited. Our team’s excited, our coaches are excited to get to play one of the top teams in the country and it’s going to be a good measuring stick to see where this team is at after this first game.

Friday, August 23, 2019

Dynamic QBs Battle As Wildcats And Rainbows Open Season

 It may seem like small potatoes compared to the Florida-Miami matchup, but Arizona and Hawaii shouldn't have to take a backseat in the week zero pecking order -- and in fact may produce a lot more fireworks and fun.

The game kicks off at 10:30 pm Eastern from Aloha Stadium in Honolulu.

Arizona's Kevin Sumlin (Arizona Daily Star)
The Wildcats are coming off a disappointing five win 2018, one that was fraught with injuries and a regression from dynamic quarterback Khalil Tate. Saddled with an ankle injury, Tate ran much less than he did the previous season, when he burst onto the scene and went from unknown to future Heisman winner. The injury played a role in Tate's subpar season, but coach Kevin Sumlin also must shoulder some of the blame as the coaches tried to turn him into more of a pocket passer.

Now healthy, it will be interesting to see if Tate is given the green light to once again become that lethal dual threat. Tate had an excellent offseason and assumed a much more vocal leadership role, gathering his charges together for workouts and throwing sessions.

"It's given him the opportunity to grab guys and get them to go with him and get some extra work in and communicate with his teammates," Sumlin said. "I think that comes with the territory when you want to take that next step, whether it's you personally, but even as an offense because you can't do it all by yourself. I mean, to get those guys together and do that, that helps all the leadership qualities that you're looking for."

Tate has a young receiving corps, but veteran running back JJ Taylor should be able to take some of the pressure from the offense after putting up over 1400 yards a year ago.

The Arizona defense was inconsistent in 2018, allowing four foes to score more than 40 points but also keeping three opponents below 20. Finding a week in week out balance will be key if the Wildcats want to contend for the South division crown.

Linebacker Colin Schooler is a man in the middle and should leave Tucson will most of the important defensive records. He had 18 TFL a season ago and is all over the field, and he will set the tone for a defense that will have its hands full against a Hawaii attack that averaged 42 points per game the first half of the year before tailing off near the end.

Hawaii's Nick Rolovich (Getty Images)
Junior quarterback Cole McDonald leads the Rainbow Warriors Run N Shoot attack, and with a year under his belt should have better command -- not that he was bad last year. McDonald had 36 touchdown tosses in 2018, but has to get better with his accuracy (58.9) if the attack is to be truly lethal. Cedric Byrd and JoJo Ward are a great 1-2 punch at receiver, but Hawaii's attack spread the ball around so it's difficult to key on just one guy.

Sumlin knows what his defense is in for against McDonald and company.

“Here’s a guy who threw for 3,800 yards last year, had a 500-yard (total offense) debut," Sumlin said. "6-4, 220, runs well all over the place and he can spin it. He’s a big, tough guy, you see him get hit sometimes, it doesn’t faze him.

"The scary part of this guy, McDonald, is he had a great year last year, 36 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, something like that, and he’s coming back this year bigger and stronger.”

Hawaii's defense wasn't great last year, but could improve with nine starters back. Linebackers Penei Pavihi and Solomon Matautia need to play big if UH's D is to have some bite.

Rainbow Warriors coach Nick Rolovich hopes to build on last year's eight-win campaign, but knows that Arizona presents a huge challenge. His team is looked at as an underdog, and he likes it that way.

“We have a chip on our shoulder,” said Rolovich. “The amount of work this team has put in, they’re excited to test their skills against some uncertainty.”

Hawaii has won just once in its last seven matchups against the Pac-12, so getting off on the right foot could be tough. Confidence is not in short supply on the UH sideline, which is expected from a team that has 20 starters back. There is a closeness from this group that Rolovich is excited about, and he believes it will serve the team well when adversity strikes.

“I think that they can win football games because they love each other, and they’ll play for each other," he said. "There’s not a lot of selfishness, if any. I think the understanding of the offense really kind of breeds that unselfish feeling. I think that the defense had it mainly because of the leadership of the assistant coaches."

The game will also honor Dick Tomey, who coached at both Arizona and Hawaii and was the architect of the Wildcats famed "Desert Swarm" defense in the 1990s. The Wildcats will wear a "DT" decal on their helmets, and there will be a video tribute to Tomey, as well as the USS Arizona. Hawaii has said it will also honor Tomey, who had seven winning seasons in 10 years coaching the Rainbow Warriors. Tomey, who won 183 games in his career, passed away in May after complications from lung cancer.

Stakes Are High In Sunshine State Showdown

 The 150th season of college football gets off to a raucous start as longtime Sunshine State rivals face off for the first time in over five years.

Florida's Dan Mullen (Saturday Tradition)
For the hungry college football fan, week zero is merely an appetizer to a season that promises exhilaration and frustration, but which will also go by way too fast. But it's also a tasty showdown between the No. 8 Florida Gators and the Miami Hurricanes, a small taste of a smorgasbord that will begin the following week.

The game kicks off at 7 pm at Camping World Stadium in Orlando.

Florida won 10 games last year, the first under head coach Dan Mullen, and want to build on that. It's not enough that the Gators are simply better, they want to be contenders in the SEC East, have the stuff to knock Georgia off of the perch it has occupied for the past two seasons. The Gators have one of the most ferocious defenses in America, but if they are to scale the mountain they will need the offense to deliver.

Mullen did wonders with QB Feleipe Franks in 2018, raising his completion percentage by nearly four points and putting a premium on minimizing mistakes. Franks tossed 24 TDs to just six interceptions, and added another seven scores rushing. A big (6-6, 240), strong-armed passer, Franks should continue to make strides thanks to a receiving corps that is deep and talented.

In Van Jefferson, Kadarius Toney, Freddie Swain, Tyrie Cleveland and Trevon Grimes, Franks has a mouth-watering array of options to choose from. All have the speed to take it to the house, and will test a Miami secondary that was one of the best in America last season. Lamichal Perine and Malik Davis form an explosive backfield combo, but there are four new faces on the offensive line.

The Gators D was aggressive (37 sacks) and opportunistic (+12 turnovers), and with a Miami offense that could take time to find its footing it could be more of the same on Saturday. Edge Jabari Zuniga is a burgeoning star up front, and the secondary could be the deepest and best in the land, led by corner CJ Henderson. The return of corner Marco Wilson from injury adds even more depth.

Mullen knows that there are people who believes the Gators did it with smoke and mirrors last season, but he isn't hearing that. He and his team are focused on a Miami squad that would like nothing better than to start the Manny Diaz era with an upset.

"Being a big rivalry game, you know, within the state of Florida, that makes it big," Mullen said in a recent media powwow. "And it's not one that's played all the time, but there's a lot of tradition in that game and there's a lot of people I feel have very strong opinions and are happy that that game's being played, and to get to see that rivalry be played is really exciting. And to start off the season.

"You know, I mean, it is -- it is a huge -- it's going to be a huge, you know, kind of catapult for one of the teams. Whoever wins that game ends up really kicking off the season on the right note with a big win in a big game with a lot of national exposure. It's a big game for us. It's exciting to be a part of it, and I know our players are excited to play in it."

Diaz had quite the odyssey before taking over head coaching duties. He left to assume the same role at Temple, then came back three weeks later after the surprising resignation of Mark Richt. Diaz is familiar with the area and culture, serving as the Canes' defensive coordinator the last three seasons. Prior to that, he worked for Mullen as DC at Mississippi State, and has worked at Louisiana Tech, Texas and Middle Tennessee, producing results at each stop.

Miami's Manny Diaz (State Of The U)
He knows how many Sunshine State residents love that this game is being played, and believe it should be an every year occurrence. He knows the city more than the school, but realizes that bragging rights in Florida often lead to contention for the national title.

"I think the only time I’ve been to a Miami-Florida game was the 31-4 game at the Orange Bowl," he said. "It was hard to find. I don’t think the two schools played at all in the 90s. I do remember that day, I remember the 31-4 game. It’s hard to get four [points], sometimes, so that’s one you tend to remember.

"What I do remember is that when Miami and Florida, and Miami and Florida State, and Florida State and Florida – when they played each other – we used to stay whoever won the state championship usually had the inside track for the national championship. That’s gone away for whatever reason, but there’s no reason that can’t be the rule of law again. I’m sure Dan Mullen and Willie Taggart feel the same way, and I know we do here."

The Hurricanes are trying to regain their swagger, but lost a lot of top-flight personnel to the NFL. They do welcome back rush end Jonathan Garvin, who could be the next great one after posting 5.5 sacks and 11.5 TFL in 2018. Virginia Tech transfer Trevon Hill adds experience on the other side. In Michael Pinckney and Shaq Quarterman Miami has two of the premier linebackers in the country. Both can run sideline to sideline and are savvy, experienced players.

The secondary welcomes back Trajan Bandy, who put up an excellent sophomore season, and adds USC transfer Bubba Bolden at one safety spot. So the pass D looks to be in pretty good hands.

The questions are all on offense -- namely at quarterback.

After the ballyhooed arrival of Tate Martell from Ohio State, many Miami fans were thinking they had their guy. But Martell was erratic in spring ball, and Diaz named redshirt freshman Jarren Williams the starter. Williams is the best natural passer of the Miami QB contingent, but it's a lot to ask to debut against a defense as good as Florida's.

There is a lot of talent in the backfield, almost none of it proven. DeeJay Dallas is the closest thing to a bellcow after toting it more than 100 times last season, but Diaz plans to rotate backs and stick with the hot hand. The receiving group is good, led by Jeff Thomas, who left and then returned. Buffalo transfer KJ Osborn adds experience and skill, though the rest of the corps is largely untested. The offensive line is being rebuilt, a daunting prospect against Florida's relentless pressure.

The contest is rich with history, and provides one of the most talked-about season-opening contests in recent memory.

Diaz knows its an opportunity for both teams, and his troops will run from the pressure.

"When you think about the history of college football, the sport may not have been invented in this state, but was certainly revolutionized in this state," Diaz said. "You’re talking about 11 national championships in less than the last 40 years, that’s over a quarter, by my math. To have two of the marquee programs in this state open up the curtains on the 2019 season is a pretty cool thing that we’re excited to be a part of."

Monday, August 5, 2019

2019 CFB Focus Preseason Rankings 1-10


1 ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
OFFENSE: PRO MULTIPLE 2-BACK
Part of me wonders just how much things will change without Josh Gattis running the offense. Despite Nick Saban being mostly old school, his offense was one of the more modern in the SEC.  It looked like an NFL offense, with its Pro Multiple 2-Back sets, but Gattis got creative and ran a lot of unconventional things out of it. 

That’s easy to do when you have a QB as good at Tua Tagovailoa, who battled injuries much of last season yet still was in the top 3 of QBR, the best barometer of quarterback efficiency. Fully healthy, Tua should be laughing at how ridiculous his cadre of receivers is – Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs Jr., DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle. All are game-breakers, and all are nearly impossible to check in single coverage. As a group they put pressure on a secondary like few units can. Irv Smith Jr is a big loss at TE, but the Tide will use that position as more of a blocker and underneath receiver this year as no one on the roster can stretch a defense the way Smith could.

The ground game may not be used quite as much in 2019 as both Josh Jacobs and Damien Harris left for the NFL. That means it is finally time for five-star recruit Najee Harris to have his turn, and he is your prototype Bama back – powerful, decisive, shiftier than you expect. He will be the bellcow, but uber-frosh Trey Sanders will also show his ability. 

The offensive line was boffo last year, allowing just 15 sacks, its lowest total since allowing 16 in 2014. There is some rebuilding to do, but the tackles are holdovers in Alex Leatherwood (who slides outside from RG, where he started 15 games last year) and Jedrick Willis. Super freshman Evan Neal has a chance to start at one guard spot, though needs to bring his weight (360) down just a tad.

Steve Sarkisian is the man running the Tide offense this year, and we’ve seen some of what he has done previously during his somewhat disastrous head coaching stint at Washington. He likes physical play but isn’t afraid to take shots downfield. The bigger loss could be QB coach Dan Enos, who left to take over the same role and OC duties at Miami for Manny Diaz.
DEFENSE: 3-4
Alabama will once again be aggressive, though this year it won’t have Quinnen Williams, the most disruptive force in college football last season. Raekwon Davis should be next man up, and he’ll have a real shot at improving on his 1.5 sacks from 2018. Quick off the ball and a master of understanding leverage, Davis is in line for a big season. LaBryan Ray will also garner some spotlight after a 39-tackle campaign in which he was a rotational player.

Linebacker should be a strength for this unit, as All-America candidate Dylan Moses is ready to bust out – if he didn’t after 86 stops and 6.5 TFL in 2018. Anfernee Jennings has always teased greatness but never quite delivered – maybe this is the year.  

The secondary is loaded, with Trevon Diggs as steady as they come and Patrick Surtain Jr ready to make the leap to stardom as a sticky cover guy. Xavier McKinney has NFL talent at safety and great range (10 PBU,2 INT), and is the leader of the back end.
BREAKOUT PERFORMER: LB Joshua McMillon is rangy and has good instincts, and an ability to navigate traffic. Don’t be shocked if he is near the top of the tackles chart this season.
IMPACT NEWCOMERS: RB Trey Sanders, NG DJ Dale, OL Evan Neal, S Scooby Carter
TOUGHEST GAMES: at Texas A&M (O 12); LSU (N 9); at Mississippi State (N 16); at Auburn (N 30)
FUN NUMBERS: With an emphasis on passing, the Tide air attack took off, ranking first nationally in passes per game of 20-plus yards (5.5).
OVERVIEW: An animal is most dangerous when it’s wounded, and the Tide took quite a barrage of shrapnel in last year’s CFP title game. Thoroughly outplayed, Alabama went back the drawing board – literally. Saban brought in eight new coaches and did many of the same things he’s done in seasons that didn’t end with championship rings. This team is most dangerous when it ISN’T atop the mountain, so woe is anyone that gets in its way. There are two locks for the playoff this year, and Alabama is one of them.

2 CLEMSON TIGERS
OFFENSE: SPREAD
What can the Tigers do for an encore? How about win it again?
As long as Trevor Lawrence is around that will be possible, as the kid had a historic freshman season with 30 touchdowns to just four interceptions, completing 65 percent of his passes. The amazing thing is that he seemed to look better and better by the week, whereas most freshmen have hiccups along the way. Lawrence has a big-time arm, can make timing throws and does a solid job of reading defenses. Lawrence had 27 big-time throws to just five turnover worthy throws in 2018, according to Pro Football Focus. Lawrence is certainly one of the frontrunners, for the Heisman, and with a receiving corps that is maturing right along with him he could put up numbers we haven’t seen before.

Tee Higgins (59 catches, 12 TD, 15.9 YPC) and Justyn Ross (46 catches, 21.7 YPC, 9 TD) form one of the most lethal receiver combos in America, and when you add in premier freshmen Frank Ladson and Joseph Ngata you’ll see that Lawrence won’t be lacking for targets. Amari Rodgers (55 catches, 4 TD) will also be in the mix once recovered from an injury suffered in spring ball. 

Travis Etienne is, for my money, the best back in America as he can beat you with speed, power and elusiveness. Etienne averaged 8.3 YPC, picked up nearly half of his yardage after contact and forced 56 missed tackles. A lot of people think he’s just a speed back, but he can make people miss in open space. His only liability is in the pass game (12 catches), and we aren’t sure if it’s because Clemson doesn’t use its backs or if it’s a weakness in Etienne’s game.

The line returns mainly intact, with C Sean Pollard, LG John Simpson and RT Tremayne Anchrum all worthy of all-league mention.
DEFENSE: 4-3
It doesn’t take a genius to realize that 2018 Clemson defense was an all-time group. The Tigers were first in rushing defense, first in YPC, first in Points Per Play, second in Negative Plays percentage and in overall YPP. The returning production numbers say that just a bit over half is back, but many of this year’s starters were on the field last year, as that’s how DC Brent Venables likes to groom newcomers. 

A case in point is DE Xavier Thomas, who had 43 stops and 10.5 TFL in a reserve role. He was at times on the field with the starters and understands the expectations and the culture of the defense. He should rise to stardom this season. Xavier Kelly and Nyles Pinckney each received playing time last season, and Justin Foster had 6 TFL despite playing less than 50 percent of the team’s defensive snaps. This group won’t be quite as good as last year’s quartet but won’t drop off as much as people think.

Isaiah Simmons fits Venables hybrid LB/safety role perfectly, and he was all over the field in 2018, amassing 97 tackles, 9.5 TFL and 7 PBU. He’s fast and angry and adept at finding the ballcarrier. 

The secondary is also talented, with holdovers AJ Terrell (7 PBU, 3 INT) at corner and K’Von Wallace (7 PBU) and Tanner Muse (76 tackles, 5 PBU, 2 INT) manning the deep middle from their safety spots. Derion Kendrick moved to cornerback from receiver during the spring and appeared to do well. Freshman Andrew Booth will be tough to keep out of the rotation and could find himself in nickel situations to start out before getting more playing time.
BREAKOUT PERFORMER: DT Nyles Pinckney takes up space and is difficult to move, but he has the quickness to shoot the gaps and get into the backfield. Much like Lawrence before him, Pinckey should take a major step forward as a sophomore
IMPACT NEWCOMERS: CB Andrew Booth, WR Frank Ladson, WR Joseph Ngata, DT Tyler Davis
TOUGHEST GAMES: Texas A&M (S 7); at Syracuse (S 14); at NC State (N 9)
FUN NUMBERS: Clemson is working on a streak of 10 straight 20-plus point wins, the second longest streak in the AP poll era (1936).
OVERVIEW: The Tigers were so loaded last year that people have a hard time understanding just how good they were. This was an all-time team, people, on a collision course with destiny. And when it came knocking, Clemson kicked in the door. It would be natural to expect a small step back defensively, but the offense should be the most lethal in all of college football. Fans may not want to hear it, but it’s time to get ready for Alabama/Clemson III (or IV, if you count non-championship games).

3 TEXAS LONGHORNS
OFFENSE: SPREAD
Sam Ehlinger has waited for his moment to shine, and 2019 could be it.

The junior is the top returning quarterback in the Big 12 and one of the best in America in a variety of categories – a clean passer rating of 113.5, tops among all returning QBs, and a TD-INT ratio of 25-5 is elite. Ehlinger doesn’t put his team in bad situations with poor decisions, making just seven turnover worthy throws all season, according to Pro Football Focus. He is also a standout runner, amassing 482 yards and 16 TDs. He is seventh among returning QBs in forced missed tackles rushing, and given the youth in the Longhorns ground attack that could come in handy. Ehlinger is a definite Heisman candidate and on the verge of big-time stardom.

When Collin Johnson decided to come back to Texas for his senior season it helped the offense immensely. Ehlinger would be starting from scratch had he left, but he brings a formidable target (6-6, 220) and a huge catch radius. Johnson caught 68 passes last season and scored seven TDs. Devin Duvernay doesn’t make headlines, but he caught 41 passes a year ago without a drop, second best tally in all of FBS. Redshirt freshman Malcolm Epps, Brennan Eagles and Joshua Moore fill out the unit.

The ground game is in the able hands (and legs) of Keontay Ingram, who ran for over 700 yards as a true frosh last year and should get the lion’s share of the carries. Ingram is more shifty than elusive and runs with power and aggression. Freshman Jordan Whittington was impressive this spring and will see playing time.

The offensive line is the best in the conference, and was given a boost by the arrival of Georgia Tech All-America guard Parker Braun, an outstanding blocker in the run game but a work in progress in pass pro. Sam Cosmi was excellent as freshman at left tackle, registering the third most snaps of any returning player in the country. Cosmi had five games where he didn’t allow a single QB pressure, good stuff for a rookie. Zach Shackelford is veteran at center who didn’t allow a single sack and just one QB hit in 440 snaps a year ago.  The addition of Herb Hand as OL coach should pay huge dividends, having done well at Penn State and Auburn previously. If Texas can improve its run blocking (Longhorns averaged just 3.8 YPC last season) then the sky’s the limit.
DEFENSE: 3-3-5
Yes, the Longhorns D is young (123rd in returning production, 8 new starters). Yes, it was poor against the pass last season, especially bad when you play in the pass-happy Big 12. And yes, there have been some issues with players being used properly in DC Todd Orlando’s scheme. 

All that said, there is enough talent in the problem areas to overcome those concerns. 

HC Tom Herman has been recruiting at a very high level the last couple of seasons, and talent is how you win at Texas. Not gimmicks, not schemes, talent. The Longhorns can now match Oklahoma player for player and have an edge in defense. With this being the third year of Orlando’s scheme, things should really begin to take hold. 

Most of Texas’ premier talent is in the secondary, so it makes sense to use nickel as the primary defense. You may even see a decent amount of dime to get another coverage guy on the field. Given the teams they face, that would be a way to counteract the youth of the front seven.

Caden Sterns (62 tackles, 4 PBU, 4 INT) played well beyond his freshman status at one safety spot, showing a knack for finding the football as well as an affinity for big hits. Senior Brandon Jones (70 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 2 INT) was very good at the other safety position, and BJ Foster (46 tackles, 9 TFL, 5 PBU) was impressive at nickel as freshman. Anthony Cook got more playing time as the season progressed at one corner spot, but Jalen Greene is new. Kobe Boyce and D’Shawn Jamison add depth to this unit, which is the best in the Big 12 and one of the 10 best in college football.

The linebackers are talented but green, with Jeffrey McCulloch and his six starts the most experienced. McCulloch is big (245) but can run. Touted Ayodele Adeoye (top 20 LB recruit in 2018) should get one outside spot after redshirting, and Joseph Ossai is on a collision course with stardom after flashing big in the Sugar Bowl.

Malcolm Roach was part of the D-line rotation last season, making 24 stops, and will be called upon for leadership on a unit that has the most question marks. Talented recruit Jacoby Jones may be too good to sit on the sidelines. 

It’s a gamble putting a lot of faith in such a young defense, but in college football talent is a precious commodity, one that wins more often than it loses. Texas has upgraded its talent sufficiently that the youth is no longer a huge worry.
BREAKOUT PERFORMER: LB Joseph Ossai, who takes over for Malcolm Roach as the Horns B-backer (Roach moves to rush end), led the team in tackles in the Sugar Bowl and plays with a nasty attitude. He has to hope that the largely inexperienced front can engage blockers well enough to allow him to run free, but he has the talent to be a star.
IMPACT NEWCOMERS: OG Parker Braun (Ga Tech transfer), DE Jacoby Jones (JUCO), LB DeGabriel Floyd, RB Jordan Whittington
TOUGHEST GAMES: LSU (S 7), vs Oklahoma (O 12), at TCU (O 26), at Iowa State (N 16)
FUN NUMBERS: The Longhorns allowed far too many big plays on defense, with opponents gaining 10-plus yards on 196 plays, 101st in FBS. Surprisingly, 128 of those gains came in Texas victories.
OVERVIEW: There is definitely some momentum coming from Austin – it started with the bowl win over Georgia and continued through a very good recruiting class for 2019. Yeah, the Longhorns are young, and there are some questions about how well the defense will hold up. But Ehlinger is a real gamer, and a better passer than people give him credit for. Texas finally has the speed – if not the depth – to go toe to toe with the big boys, and with a pretty manageable schedule it’s time for a Texas breakthrough. Yes, the Longhorns will make their first appearance in the College Football Playoff, which should put an end to the question about whether or not they are “back.”

4 UTAH UTES
OFFENSE: MULTIPLE
Utah returns a good portion of its offense from 2018, but the biggest return could be from a guy who hasn’t been around the program since 2014. Andy Ludwig is back as OC, and he called the plays for the 2008 team that went unbeaten and was one of the most prolific offenses in school history. He and Kyle Whittingham seem to be on the same page stylistically, going from the quicker tempo of Troy Taylor’s system to a more deliberate, complex scheme. That could be an issue for returning QB Tyler Huntley as he has to learn new terminology, but the Utes have a veteran group and that concern is minimal.

Huntley showed how valuable he was to the offense last year, as Utah averaged nearly a TD more in the games he played. Huntley missed five contests due to injury but completed 64.1 percent of his passes and threw for 12 scores while running for four more. Huntley is more of game-manager than elite talent, but he can occasionally take over games with his dual-threat skill set. 

Zach Moss is one of the better running backs that doesn’t get talked about. He averaged over 6 YPC and scored 11 touchdowns despite missing five contests and should be asked to contribute more in the passing game this season. Moss is a workhorse who will get a few breaks, but his toughness is part of the identity of this offense.

The receiving corps is good and returns nearly everyone. Britain Covey (60 catches) was the favorite target, but late in the season others emerged, including Jaylen Dixon (32 catches), Samson Nacua (31 catches, 5 TD) and Demari Simpkins (26 catches). If Utah can spread the wealth rather than relying solely on Covey in clutch situations, this will be a tough offense to deal with.

The offensive line has been rebuilt, with LT Darrin Paulo and C Orlando Umana as holdovers. RT Nick Ford played in 11 games last season and the coaching staff is high on a pair of redshirt freshmen at the other two spots.
There is little that’s more valuable than experience, and Utah returns 90 percent of its offensive production from last year, the third best figure in FBS.
DEFENSE: 4-2-5
The Utes have thrived defensively under DC Morgan Scalley, giving up fewer than 24 points in each of his first three seasons guiding the D. Last year’s unit was especially stingy, allowing just 19.8 ppg and tallying 37 sacks. Utah plays aggressive yet doesn’t give up big plays, which is why they are so difficult to to against. Utah was especially good against the run, ranking in the to 10 in rushing yards (5th), YPC (5th), Negative Play Percentage (10th) and explosive rushes allowed (9th).

The defensive line could be the best in the country, led by beast Bradlee Anae (51 tackles, 15.5 TFL, 8 sacks). The senior end passed up the NFL for a chance to return to school to chase the brass ring. Anae has a high motor and freakish strength and was a first team all-league choice last year. Maxs Tupai mans the other end spot, while John Penisini and Leki Fotu take up space inside. The 6-5, 327-pound Fotu especially has NFL star written all over him and is almost always the victim of double team blocks. Mika Tafua and freshman Semisi Lauaki, who was in for spring, will also have opportunities.

The secondary is another unit that’s among the best in the country, headed by cornerback Jaylon Johnson (41 tackles, 4 PBU, 4 INT) and safety Julian Blackmon (48 tackles, 10 PBU), who are both all-league worthy. Nickel Javelin Guidry is active and can play the ball as well as create havoc in the backfield. 

If there is a weak spot for the unit, it’s linebacker. Francis Bernard is steady, but the Utes were counting on Penn State transfer Manny Bowen to bring experience and physical play to the group. But he recently quit football, saying the passion is no longer there. That leaves a tremendous hole in the LB corps, one that could be filled by sophomores Devin Lloyd or Sione Lund, who started his career at Stanford, and redshirt frosh Andrew Mata’afa.
BREAKOUT PERFORMER: WR Jaylen Dixon has the speed and explosiveness to make the Utes passing game pretty dangerous. Veteran Britain Covey is great running the underneath stuff, but Dixon is the one who will be able to take the top off of opposing defenses. With OC Andy Ludwig back in the fold look for Utah to be much more of a modern offense. Dixon will be a big part of that.
IMPACT NEWCOMERS: OG Paul Maile (RS), OG Braeden Daniels (RS), DE Semisi Lauaki
TOUGHEST GAMES: at BYU (A 29), Washington State (S 28), California (O 26), at Washington (N 2)
FUN NUMBERS: 28, the percentage of non-sack rushing carries that were stuffed at or behind the line by the Utes aggressive defense. That total was best the league and second in all of FBS
OVERVIEW: After missing out on the CFP for two straight seasons, the Pac-12 finally has a team equipped to make a run. The Utes won’t wow anyone with big plays – though they will be more plentiful this season – but they are a model of efficiency. In Huntley and Moss, Utah has two players who can move the chains and bleed the clock. And the defense? Well, let’s just say it’s easily the best in the conference, and there are a number of NFL talents on the roster, notably in the secondary and up front. If the Utes can get past Washington, then it’s smooth sailing to the league title game – and beyond.

5 GEORGIA BULLDOGS
OFFENSE: PRO STYLE
I don’t quite get the hate thrown at Jake Fromm by Georgia fans. Is he dynamic? No. Is he an elite athlete? Uh-uh. But you know what? He leads, he wins, and he can make more than enough throws. Fromm was 41-69 with 13 TDs and just one INT on throws of 10-20 yards, according to Pro Football Focus, and is sneaky good at keeping plays alive. Overall, Fromm tossed 30 TDs to just six picks, and completed over 67 percent of his passes. 

The offensive line could be America’s best, led by LT Andrew Thomas, who allowed just 11 pressures in 314 snaps and who should be a high NFL draft pick next year. Isaiah Wilson held up well as a freshman opposite Thomas, while Solomon Kindley, Jamaree Salyer and Ben Cleveland all have vital experience at guard. Trey Hill slides over to center, and Cade Mays is a versatile utility part who can play tackle or guard. Georgia excelled last year, ranking seventh nationally in YPC and had a 6% sack rate. 

D’Andre Swift eclipsed 1000 yards and scored 10 TDs a year ago and is considered one of the best backs in college football. Swift has electric feet that allow him to be elusive in the hole and a burst that gets him to top speed in a hurry. Brian Herrien (5.9 YPC), James Cook (6.9 YPC), redshirt Zamir White and recruit Kenny McIntosh could all see time relieving Swift. 

If there is one area of concern, it’s receiver. Jeremiah Holloman was dismissed from the team, leaving precious little experience in the group. No other returnee had more than 10 grabs last year, so someone will need to step up. It could be Cal transfer Demetris Robertson, who averaged nearly 15 yards per grab in two years with the Bears. Miami transfer Lawrence Cager could also be a presence, but there is a lot of uneasiness with this group. It may be up to freshmen George Pickens and Dominick Blaylock to provide a spark.
DEFENSE: 4-3
The Dawgs defense, nearly elite in 2017, wasn’t nearly as disruptive last year. There was a reduction in sacks (from 34 to 24), a rise in YPP (from 4.7 to 4.9) and a rise in completion percentage (from 55 to 61). A lot of this was because DC Mel Tucker chose to play conservative, allowing teams to catch the football and having his guys make the tackle. That could change with the elevation of Dan Lanning to DC, though you have to believe Kirby Smart will have his hands in the defense, too.

The defensive line is experienced but not nearly as productive as it should be, as the three returnees combined for just four sacks and four TFLs. Those numbers must improve if the Dawgs are to be considered national title contenders, especially since the offense is so methodical. Jordan Davis could be ready for a breakout at one defensive spot, while Julian Rochester and Tyler Clark bring the most experience up front. Brenton Cox flashed big time skills as a part of the rotation in his freshman season. Veteran Malik Herring and JUCO Devonte Wyatt could also be factors. 

The linebackers will be talented, but inexperienced. Monty Rice and Tae Crowder have 11 starts between them, but both fit the mold of Georgia linebackers in that they can run and hit. JUCO All-America Jermaine Johnson was in for spring ball and impressed and should make an immediate impact. Top-end freshmen Nolan Smith and Nakobe Dean will be hard to keep off the field. 

The secondary lost its best player in corner Deandre Baker, but Eric Stokes showed great promise as a freshman, with 9 PBU in limited action. Tyson Campbell is physical and a willing tackler on the other side, while safeties JR Reed and Richard Lecounte are the leading returning tacklers. Reed has star power and seems to come up big in pressure situations.
This will be your typical Georgia D, rife with talent and quickness. The question is whether or not it can affect teams more at the point of attack this season.
BREAKOUT PERFORMER: DE Jordan Davis, who had flashes during the season but really came on late. Davis has speed and quickness off the edge, but also has the strength to go inside and overpower. With veterans Julian Rochester and Tyler Clark taking care of the inside, Davis should be able to wreak havoc on opposing backfields.
IMPACT NEWCOMERS: LB Nolan Smith, LB Nakobe Dean, DE Jermaine Johnson (JUCO), CB DJ Daniel (JUCO), WR Lawrence Cager (Miami transfer)
TOUGHEST GAMES: Notre Dame (S 21), vs Florida (N 2), at Auburn (N 16), Texas A7M (N 23)
FUN NUMBERS: Georgia averaged 2.6 rushes per game of 20-plus yards, which was tops in the SEC and sixth nationally.
OVERVIEW: It’s intriguing to think of the possibilities with the Georgia offense, especially now that James Coley is calling the plays. He isn’t afraid to open the playbook, which could mean more passing and less “game managing” from Fromm. And that could be a good thing because, contrary to the belief of many in Dawg Nation, the kid has an arm. The ground game will still be lethal, of course, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the offense tick up from last year’s 37.9 ppg. The D is young in the front seven but has SO many athletes that it becomes less of a concern. Georgia has had Alabama on the ropes twice in two years now and couldn’t finish the deal. Is this the year that happens? We say maybe, but it also wouldn’t be a complete shock if the Dawgs enter the SEC title game with a loss as the schedule late is brutal. National championship contender, for sure.

6 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
OFFENSE: SPREAD
For the first time in eight seasons, Ohio State will not be guided by Urban Meyer. The controversial coach stepped away from the game following last year’s 13-1 season, replaced by OC Ryan Day, who helped Dwayne Haskins break every conceivable single season passing record at the school and get selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Day went 3-0 as interim head coach last season and looked like a good fit, so there is minimal worry that the job is too big for him.

More of a worry is an offensive line that needs to replace four players. The group wasn’t great last year, finishing 76th in YPC and 78th in YPC on first down. OSU played behind the chains a lot, but Haskins was able to bail them out. The line must improve with inexperience at the quarterback position. Rutgers transfer Jonah Jackson will be a huge help at one guard spot, and sophomore Wyatt Davis looks like a star in the making on the other side. Tackle on both sides is a question as Thayer Munford missed the spring and Nicholas Petit-Frere has not distanced himself from Brandon Bowen. 

Justin Fields takes over at quarterback after transferring from Georgia. The top QB recruit in the nation in 2018, Fields was used sparingly by the Bulldogs and felt a change of scenery would be best. Fields is a great athlete who had some ups and downs in the spring, but he has a big-time arm. Day’s playbook is immense, and the learning aspect will be the toughest obstacle for Fields. There is confidence from the staff that he can handle the physical part of things, especially since there will be a return to more RPOs. Fields will be working with former Oklahoma State OC Mike Yurcich, who is the Buckeyes QBs coach/passing game coordinator and who consistently turned out good numbers in Stillwater.

JK Dobbins had his second straight 1000-yard season but considered it a disappointment, as he averaged just 4.6 YPC, nearly three yards less than his breakout freshman campaign. In a timeshare with Mike Weber, Dobbins was more powerful but less explosive. He’s dropped 10 pounds in an effort to regain his burst and could be in line for a big season. DeMario McCall will get some work as H-back, and freshman Steele Chambers could also e in the mix as more of a power component.

OSU lost its top three receivers to the NFL but fear not because the Buckeyes have a deep stable of talent. Fun fact that will win a bar bet – the Buckeyes have had more receivers drafted than any other team over the past 20 years. KJ Hill (70 catches, 6 TD) is a reliable veteran who catches everything thrown his way and will likely leave Columbus with most career receiving records. Austin Mack (26 catches) was injured last season but flashed his potential as a freshman and Binjimen Victor (21 catches, 16.9 YPC, 4 TD) has great run after the catch ability, as he exhibited in the Buckeyes comeback win over Penn State. Jaelen Gill impressed in the spring after redshirting and will see action, as will top recruit Garrett Wilson, who was already flashing big-time skills in spring ball. He is good enough to be part of the regular rotation and contend for league freshman of the year honors.
DEFENSE: 4-3
Normally reliable, Ohio State’s defense bottomed out last season. The Buckeyes had finished top six in YPP for three straight seasons beginning in 2015, but last year were 72nd. There were poor alignments, lack of communication and understanding and a scheme that didn’t fit the personnel. You expect more from a Greg Schiano defense, but it was poor all around.

To alleviate the issues, Day made some coaching staff changes. He brought in Greg Mattison and Al Washington from Michigan and Jeff Hafley from the San Francisco 49ers, and the energy in the spring was palpable.

One person Day kept was defensive line coach Larry Johnson, who just may be the best in the business. The Buckeyes have been churning out linemen regularly for years now, all under the watchful eye of Johnson. He has another great one this year in Chase Young, who led all edge defenders in QB pressures (75) and won on 19.6 percent of his pass rush snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. He had 11 sacks, 14 hits and 50 hurries, a rare pass rush triple double. The kid is a surefire early pick in next year’s NFL Draft but has one more season to wreak havoc. Jonathan Cooper gets lost among the big names but had 6.5 TFL last season and could go out with a bang. Robert Landers had an impressive spring and should be a force inside. Freshman Zach Harrison and sophomores Tyreke Smith and Tyler Friday could also contribute. 

Despite numbers that say otherwise, the Buckeyes have one of the better secondaries in America, at least in terms of talent. OSU was 86th in passing yardage, but an aggressive attack accounted for a 55.6 opponent completion percentage (29th) and negative play percentage of 10% (26th). Jeffrey Okudah is ready to blossom at one corner spot after showcasing himself late in the season. Okudah (34 tackles, 8 PBU) has excellent instincts and can play physical man coverage. Damon Arnette and Shaun Wade could rotate on the other side. Jordan Fuller (81 tackles, 4 PBU) has all-league ability at safety and Brendon White (46 tackles, 4 TFL, 2 PBU) will man the new Bullet position, which is a hybrid safety/linebacker that puts him in the box and allows him to run free to make plays. 

Linebacker was a sore spot last season, but Malik Harrison (81 tackles, 8.5 TFL, 3 QBH) was a standout. Flashing NFL speed and talent, Harrison is the one holdover whose job is safe. Baron Browning may finally be ready to realize his potential after two largely nondescript seasons, and sophomore Teradja Mitchell had an excellent spring and appears ready to handle a regular workload. Tuf Borland and Pete Werner will likely open the season as starters but could have trouble hanging on to their jobs due to the athleticism of the younger players. 

How much the defense improves will directly impact Ohio State’s fortunes. The Buckeyes won’t be able to simply outscore foes like they did last year, so they need the stop side to step up.
BREAKOUT PERFORMER: LB Teradja Mitchell has had star potential since the moment he arrived on campus, and now that he has done his stint on special teams, he’s ready to shake up the LB corps. Instinctive and fast, Mitchell is a heat-seeking missile who can find the ballcarrier.
IMPACT NEWCOMERS: QB Justin Fields (Georgia transfer), WR Garrett Wilson, DE Zach Harrison, OG Jonah Jackson (Rutgers transfer), RB Steele Chambers
TOUGHEST GAMES: at Nebraska (S 28), Michigan State (O 5), Penn State (N 23), at Michigan (N 30)
FUN NUMBERS: 3.0, the average of gains per game of 30-plus yards on offense, 13th best nationally. The 6.6 YPP averaged by OSU was 11th best in the land.
OVERVIEW: There is a lot of intrigue and mystery surrounding the Buckeyes in 2019 – a legendary coach steps down, a new one with an innovative offensive mind takes over. How will Ryan Day handle things now that the gig is his full-time? We think just fine, as he pays incredible attention to detail and did well in his three-game “audition” last season. The defense will be allowed to play instead of think, which will make it better because there are athletes galore on that side of the ball. The offense will look more like an Urban Meyer attack, with Fields providing a lethal running threat and an arm that can make nearly every throw. It’s figuring out the defenses that will determine how successful Fields and the Buckeyes will be. We think very, as in Big Ten champs and playoff contender.

7 OKLAHOMA SOONERS
OFFENSE: MULTIPLE NO HUDDLE
It’s difficult and probably a bit crazy to doubt Lincoln Riley. After all, he’s two for two in CFP appearances and has also presided over the top offense in college football as well as the last two Heisman Trophy winners. So predicting a step back that results in the Sooners not only missing the CFP, but finishing second in the Big 12, could be downright crazy.

But it’s what I am doing.

The reasoning is twofold – an all-world offensive line that lost four players to the NFL and a transfer quarterback who has never been known for his passing acumen.

The bigger concern first – offensive line. Oklahoma develops linemen as well as anyone in America, so by the end of the season there shouldn’t be much of an issue with this group. However, chemistry is only gained by playing together and taking live bullets, and none of these guys have done that. Even a slight regression in offensive production could spell the difference between the CFP and being a spectator. It should be noted that the one holdover, center Creed Humphrey, has already asserted himself as one of the top pivotmen in college football. He’s smart and nasty and will have to lead, despite being just a sophomore. 

Following Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray is no easy feat, and that’s what Jalen Hurts has to do after arriving from Alabama with a 26-2 record. There is no doubt Hurts is a winner, and a player that’s easy to root for. That doesn’t change the fact that he’s a career 61 percent passer, and at this point in a career, players don’t make massive improvements. They are what they are. Hurts is a great leader and a dangerous runner, and while he improved his passing last year at Alabama it’s a lot to ask him to do the same in a offense that plays fast, relies on quick reads and decision-making and precise throws that allow playmakers to do their thing. I expect Riley to tweak the offense, taking advantage of shorter timing routes rather than a bunch of downfield throws, as that better suits Hurts skill set. If the offense doesn’t adapt, there could be problems.

If Hurts is up to the challenge, he has a ton of playmakers to work with. CeeDee Lamb (65 catches, 17.8 YPC, 11 TD) is one of the most dangerous wideouts in America, able to take a short pass to the end zone. There isn’t a ton of experience at the other receiver spots, which means TE Grant Calcaterra (26 catches, 15.2 YPC, 6 TD) could become a favorite target. Freshman Theo Wease and Jadon Haselwood will both make an instant impact.

The running back stable is deep, though there could be issues with Kennedy Brooks, who rambled for 12 TDs and averaged 8.9 YPC. Blessed with great burst and explosiveness, Brooks is one of the top backs in the land. He missed much of the spring and summer and was recently brought back to the team after a Title IX investigation into alleged domestic violence. He was cleared by the school, but his alleged victim spoke out and said Oklahoma was protecting him. At this time, it appears that Brooks is good to go, but if he isn’t then Trey Sermon (13 TD, 5.8 YPC) would take the bulk of the carries. Sophomore TJ Pledger could also be in line for work.

It will be intriguing to see what kind of balancing act Riley does with the Sooners offense this season.
DEFENSE: 4-2-5
As good as Oklahoma’s offense has been under Riley, the defense has been that bad.
The Sooners ranked 100th or worse in scoring defense, total defense, passing defense, passing yards per attempt …. You get the picture. It was not a pretty performance, and the one thing that kept Oklahoma from doing anything in the postseason. Even an average defense might have given Oklahoma a CFP victory.

Enter Alex Grinch, who transformed Washington State into one of the more aggressive, feared defenses in the Pac-12. He will install his system, which gambles a ton but also leaves the possibility of the big play, with an experienced unit that returns 81 percent of its production. 

There should be opportunities for the Sooners to be better at bothering the quarterback. Oklahoma has been below 30 sacks in each of the last three seasons, but DE Ronnie Perkins showed some chops as a freshman with five sacks and eight TFL. Neville Gallimore is a tad undersized inside but is difficult to move and could be an anchor against the run. 

Junior LB Kenneth Murray has been around the football since the day he arrived on campus, leading the team with 155 stops last year. A read and react type, Murray may be asked to be more aggressive this season. The secondary has athletes but did not perform well, and in the pass-happy Big 12 that is not a good thing. Tre Norwood and Tre Brown will get first shot at the corners, but touted nickel back Brendan Radley-Hiles had far too many coverage mistakes and may be fighting for his starting job. 

With a potentially slower offense, the Sooners D may see a reduction in some of its numbers simply because it will face fewer snaps. It’s how much improvement there is that will determine whether the Sooners stay atop the conference.
BREAKOUT PERFORMER: DE Ronnie Perkins flashed huge potential during his freshman campaign, but also had enough youthful mistakes that his impact wasn’t completely felt. That changes this year as the ultra-fast Perkins will prove to be a nightmare for opposing OTs to handle. Double-digit sack numbers are not out of the question.
IMPACT NEWCOMERS: QB Jalen Hurts (Alabama transfer), OG RJ Prcotor (Virginia transfer), DT LaRon Stokes (JUCO), WR Theo Wease, WR Jadon Haselwood
TOUGHEST GAMES: Houston (A 31), at UCLA (S 14), vs Texas (O 12), Iowa State (N 9), TCU (N 23), at Oklahoma State (N 30)
FUN NUMBERS: 1036, the number of plays the Oklahoma defense faced in 2018. The Sooners D was a sieve, and it could not get off the field. Part of it was because the offense scored quickly, but part was because the unit was just bad.
OVERVIEW: Two years under Lincoln Riley, two berths in the CFP. The next step is winning a game. Whether or not that happens this year remains to be seen, but the schedule isn’t exactly a cakewalk. Veteran Jalen Hurts comes in to run the show, and we’ll see how much of the playbook Riley leaves open as Hurts is not the passer Kyler Murray or Baker Mayfield was. He is a winner, though, and that counts for something. There is nowhere but up for the defense to go, and new DC Alex Grinch has proven credentials. A rebuilt O-line is cause for concern, even if the Sooners typically are among the best groups in the country, and unproven talent at receiver could also be an issue. How will they respond in big moments? The Sooners should once again be in the B12 title game. Whether or not they are in the CFP? That’s another story.

8 LSU TIGERS
OFFENSE: MULTIPLE
Last year was a nice first step in the evolution of LSU’s offense, as the Tigers had more varied formations, some decent in-game adjustments and found a real leader in Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow, who accounted for 23 touchdowns in his first season as a starter. 

One thing there wasn’t enough of was downfield throwing. Burrow has a nice arm, but LSU didn’t want to gamble and press defenses deep – odd since the receiving corps has the potential to be very good. LSU routinely turns out receivers to the NFL, yet never has what anyone would consider a feared passing attack. Maybe it changes this season with the addition of New Orleans Saints assistant Joe Brady as passing game coordinator. 

If Brady’s concepts click, LSU could indeed be dangerous on offense. Justin Jefferson (54 catches, 6 TD, 16.2 YPC) is already proving to be a top talent and has excellent speed and route-running skill. Ja’marr Chase flashed as a freshman, and Terrace Marshall may be ready to show why he was last year’s top recruit at receiver. Texas Tech transfer Jonathan Giles and freshman Devonta Lee add to the mix.

The offensive line suffered through injury and inconsistency, which contributed to LSU averaging just 4.2 YPC on first down (93rd nationally). C Lloyd Cushenberry is an All-America candidate, and tackle Saadiq Charles and guard Damien Lewis bring experience.

LSU typically has a bruiser in the backfield, and last year it was the underappreciated Nick Brossette. He is off to the NFL, so the committee approach will be handled by holdover Clyde Edwards-Helaire (658 yards, 7 TD) and super frosh John Emery, the third ranked runner in the class. Emery has some wiggle and speed to get to the outside and should take over the starting role sooner rather than later.  
DEFENSE: 3-4
DC Dave Aranda is a master at finding what his troops do well and adapting his schemes to fit. He typically has linebackers that can run all day, defensive backs that can play the ball and pack a wallop and a defensive front that pins back its ears and bothers the quarterback repeatedly.

There are stars at each level, none bigger than safety Grant Delpit. The junior is everywhere, and registered 74 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 9 PBU, 5 INT and 4 QBH. He will take over as quarterback of the defense with the departure of LB Devin White to the NFL, so the Tigers are in good hands here. Kristian Fulton is the latest in a long line of shutdown corners from the bayou. Fulton allowed just 17 completions and only two TDs on 41 targets, along with 7 PBU. He missed three games with a foot injury but is ready to bust out. True frosh Derek Stingley Jr was in for spring and has already assumed a starting spot opposite Fulton, so teams throwing on the Tigers are tempting fate.

It will be impossible to replace a force like White, who made 123 tackles in 2018. LSU won’t do it with one player, instead focusing on a cadre of talent to get the job done. Jacob Phillips inherits White’s spot and was actually second in tackles with 87. Patrick Queen has the look of a star after netting 40 stops and 5 TFL a year ago, Michael Divinity is a high-motor senior and EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson is back and healthy after playing in only one game last season. 

If there is one chink in the armor it’s up front, where there wasn’t the typical production. Sacks went down from 39 to 34, total yards increased by nearly 25 and points went up by a field goal. Much of that can be tied to inconsistency from the front line. The talent is there to be dominant, with Rashard Lawrence (54 tackles, 10.5 TFL) and Glen Logan forming an excellent duo. True freshman Apu Ika takes over at the nose and showed occasional dominance in the spring. Tyler Shelvin and Breiden Fehoko add depth and experience. 

The Tigers return 70 percent of their defensive production from a year ago, and if it can merely tighten up against the run game it will be one of the most feared units in the country.
BREAKOUT PERFORMER: RLB Patrick Queen, who just scratched the surface last year as more of a situational player. He will play the same way (and position) as Devin White, only he may be faster. He doesn’t quite have the football IQ or instincts of his predecessor, but he could certainly be in line for a huge season.
IMPACT NEWCOMERS: CB Derek Stingley, RB John Emery, NT Siaki Ika, LB Soni Fanua
TOUGHEST GAMES: at Texas (S 7), Florida (O 12), at Mississippi State (O 19), at Alabama (N 9), Texas A&M (N 30)
FUN NUMBERS: 49.7, which is the completion percentage of opposing QBs last season. LSU’s pass D was something truly special, ranking highly in YPA (T8), Passer Rating (4) and INTs (11). And teams still threw a lot, averaging 34.5 attempts per game, one of the highest figures in the country.
OVERVIEW: THIS is the year the LSU offense comes into the modern age – right? We’ve heard that before, yet there we are in October, and the Tigers are lining up in two-back and plowing up the middle for a three-yard gain. But there are assurances that they will implement RPOs into the scheme, which should suit Burrow just fine. If the wideouts become more consistent the offense should hum. The D will be its usual nasty self, even if it is young. The turnover luck LSU had last year may not be as abundant in 2019, which could signal a small step back. But this is the best team Ed Orgeron has had, maybe the first one with a legitimate shot to beat Alabama. LSU will be a very intriguing team to follow this year, as it will either be right near the top or wither under heightened expectations.

9 OREGON DUCKS
OFFENSE: PISTOL/POWER RUN SPREAD
Any talk of the Oregon offense starts with Justin Herbert, one of the more polarizing figures in college football.
Herbert can make throws to all levels, has a quick release and can throw on the move, yet folks look purely at the numbers – 59.4 completion percentage – and think the kid can’t play. The completion percentage goes WAY up if Oregon’s receivers don’t drop 52 passes in 2018, and with an experienced group returning that shouldn’t happen again. Herbert is still too inconsistent from week to week, which is probably a reason he returned for his senior season.

For all the talk of Herbert, the biggest issue last year was with the Ducks running game. It was 103rd in explosiveness and 73rd on first down YPC, which put them behind the chains far too often. CJ Verdell ran for over 1000 yards and scored 10 TDs and was spelled by Travis Dye, but the slower pace of the offense last year seemed to impact Oregon’s ability to hit foes with quick inside runs as they have in previous seasons. 

The offensive line is the most experienced in college football, with 153 starts between them. If they can play as a unit the offense should make huge strides. LG Shane Lemieux could be the best of the bunch, though LT Penei Sewell, who got some All-America mention as a freshman, may have something to say about that. Versatile Calvin Throckmorton settles in at right tackle after playing four positions last year.

Finding reliable receivers will go a long way toward Oregon achieving its goals, and Jaylon Redd (38 catches, 5 TD) is a good place to start as he has the potential to be lethal from the slot. Penn State transfer Juwan Johnson adds experience and size (6-5, 230), while Johnny Johnson and Brendan Schooler were in the mix last season. Freshman Mycah Pittman has the talent to get into the lineup.
DEFENSE: 3-4
The defense was supposed to be good last season but regressed from 2017, giving up more yards and netting fewer sacks while allowing a higher YPP average. The defense was less aggressive, surprising considering Jim Leavitt was DC, and the production was just not there. Now Leavitt exits, which could be an issue for a unit looking for stability. Andy Avalos comes over from Boise State, and while the Broncos were usually good on D, they weren’t elite. Maybe better personnel produces better results. 

Oregon’s secondary can hold its own against any group in America, led by corner Thomas Graham (56 tackles, 18 PBU, 3 INT). He doesn’t get a lot of publicity, but opposing receivers know he is sticky in man coverage, especially on slants and crosses. Jevon Holland and Nick Pickett form a physical duo at safety, and Deommodore Lenoir could emerge opposite Graham as he had 9 PBUs in 2018. Freshman Mykael Wright is one to watch.

Troy Dye has been a tackling machine at linebacker ever since arriving as a freshman, and he is the heart and soul of the Ducks D. The senior made 115 stops last year, including 8 TFL, 7 PBU and 4 QBH. He’s all over the field and provides excellent leadership for the defense. 

The defensive front needs to pick it up this season after failing to disrupt often enough in 2018. The rush defense was OK, but the negative play percentage of 8% was 96th in the country. More aggression is needed, and it may come in the form of freshman Kayvon Thibodeaux, the nation’s top overall recruit. Long-armed and fast, Thibodeaux may solve the pass rushing and aggressiveness problems Oregon had last season. DT Jordon Scott has flashed talent but is far too inconsistent and needs to become more of an anchor inside.
BREAKOUT PERFORMER: WR Jaylen Redd, whose 38 catches leads all returnees and who, by all accounts, had a very good spring. Quick out of his breaks and lethal with the ball in his hands, Redd should find himself on the receiving end of plenty of Herbert targets.
IMPACT NEWCOMERS: DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, WR Juwan Johnson (Penn State transfer), WR Mycah Pittman, LB Mase Funa
TOUGHEST GAMES: vs Auburn (A 31), at Stanford (S 21), at Washington (O 19), at USC (N 2)
FUN NUMBERS: 52, the number of dropped passes by Oregon receivers and backs. Catch even half of those and the offense would have been more lethal, and folks would be talking about Herbert in different terms
OVERVIEW: Heading into the spring I had Oregon in the CFP but took a look at their schedule, the loss of DC Jim Leavitt, and the fact that, well, it’s Oregon. There is always one season-changing moment that happens to the Ducks, and usually not for the better. Someone gets hurt, someone fumbles late to give away a game, someone throws a back-breaking pick. You get the idea. The offense should be better with the nation’s best and most experienced offensive line and skill position players galore, while the defense will gain some bite with Avalos running the show. Thibodeaux is a freak athlete and will impact things by himself – add in Scott and Dye and a secondary that is criminally underrated and you have the makings of an Oregon D circa 2012-14. The schedule is the one thing that gives pause, but it would not be a shock to this corner if the Ducks somehow navigate choppy waters and find themselves playing in the CFP. For now, we’ll just say best in the Pac-12.

10 FLORIDA GATORS
OFFENSE: MULTIPLE
Well, that was fast.

The improvement shown by Florida, not only in the win column (+6) but on offense (points up by 13 per game, yards up by 90 per game) was nothing short of amazing, and should be attributed mostly to the hire of Dan Mullen, who had already shown himself to be an offensive guru of sorts after making Mississippi State competitive and fun to watch. 

Mullen transformed the culture, allowed his players to play loose and free instead of uptight, and really got results out of QB Feleipe Franks, who had been a journeyman prior to 2018. The 6-6, 240-pounder completed over 58.4 percent of his passes (up by nearly 4 percent) at the same time increading his YPA (from 6.3 to 7.6).

It’s logical to assume that Franks will improve even more in year two under Mullen, especially with the embarrassment of riches he has at receiver. The Gators are as deep as anyone in America, with the ability to cycle through as many as seven guys. Van Jefferson is the most accomplished of the group, scoring 6 TDs on 35 grabs last year, and is joined by emerging Trevon Grimes, do-it-all speedster Kadarius Toney and seniors Freddie Swain, Joshua Hammond and Tyrie Cleveland. Any combination could be lined up on the field at a given time, and all present different issues for opposing defenses. Tight end Kyle Pitts (6-6) is an inviting red zone target, but he can also get down the seam and create mismatches. 

The ground game returns leading rusher Lamical Perine (826 yards, 7 TD, 6.2 YPC) and welcomes back speedster Malik Davis, who missed all but three games due to injury. Sophomore Dameon Pierce could also get into the act.

The true barometer of how well Florida plays this season will be measured up front. The Gators lost four starters and will fill the void with three juniors and a redshirt freshman. That doesn’t sound like a recipe for success in the man’s world of SEC trench warfare, but it’s the path Florida has chosen. It will be interesting to see if they can maintain top 25 rankings in YPC with such turnover.
DEFENSE: 3-4
Todd Grantham has proven to be one of the best defensive coordinators in America, and Florida’s ascent into the top 25 in six categories in 2018 was the best evidence. The Gators were 20th in scoring defense and 13th against the pass and return eight from last season.

Jabari Zuniga has teased his potential but now may be ready to break out. The senior had 11 TFL and 4 QBH as a first-year starter last season, has a high motor and high skill level. Louisville transfer Jon Greenard will be a boost in the experience department, and he’s also adept at playing the run. 

David Reese has been good for a couple of seasons now, and his 77 tackles is tops among Florida returnees. He sometimes gets lost in coverage but is physical in the run game. 

The secondary is loaded, with cornerback CJ Henderson (38 tackles, 5 TFL, 7 PBU, 2 INT) worthy of All-America consideration. Brad Stewart and Jeawan Taylor are veterans at safety, and Trey Dean will man the all-important STAR position, a LB/S hybrid that puts him all over the field.
If the most improvement comes between years one and two, then this Florida defense could be in for a big-time season.
BREAKOUT PERFORMER: RB Malik Davis, who likely won’t start over incumbent Lamical Perine, but he has shiftiness, can catch the ball out of the backfield and can really go once he’s through the hole. Adds a big-play component to UF’s ground attack and will have many chances in 2019.
IMPACT NEWCOMERS: TE Keon Zipperer, OG Ethan White, LB Jonathan Greenard (Louisville transfer, injured last year)
TOUGHEST GAMES: Auburn (O 5), at LSU (O 12), vs Georgia (N 2), Florida State (N 30)
FUN NUMBERS: 0.9, the sack rate on passing downs (second-and-8 or more, third-or-fourth-and-5 or more) for the Gators in 2018, the lowest in the nation. A stark contrast from 2017, when the passing downs sack rate was 9.8 percent (98th nationally)
OVERVIEW: Gators fans had confidence in Dan Mullen to erase the misery that was the Jim McElwain “era” (short though it may have been), but even the most optimistic Florida backer couldn’t have seen a six-game jump. Mullen transformed Franks from liability to weapon, and actually made the UF passing attack dangerous. Florida signed some great skill players, but the biggest signee may have been DC Todd Grantham, who allows the unit to keep continuity. Losing him would have been a big blow. The offense should take another step forward, and the defense is always good. Is Florida ready to take the next step, from 10 wins to 11 – which would likely mean an SEC East championship? Maybe. But even if they aren’t, it’s apparent that Florida is a player on the national scene as long as Mullen is around.