Thursday, October 19, 2017

High Stakes As No. 11 USC Battles No. 13 Notre Dame

It's been called the nation's best intersectional rivalry, and there's an extra buzz emanating around this Saturday's showdown of USC and Notre Dame in South Bend. Both teams already have one loss, so this game is, for all intents and purposes, a College Football Playoff elimination contest.

The Trojans (6-1), ranked 11th in the nation, saw their football lives flash before them last weekend in a 28-27 comeback victory over Utah. USC rallied from a 21-7 halftime deficit, taking its first lead with less than five minutes to play then stopping the Utes on what would have been a game-winning two point conversion.

USC is often seen as Hollywood, a finesse team, but it was grit and tenacity that made for the victory.
LB Cameron Smith is the leader for USC's defense (Bleacher Report)

"I've always told them never get comfortable, never be satisfied, and the reality is we're still a work in progress," coach Clay Helton said. "To execute on long drives like the offense did in the second half while protecting the football, I thought it was our best half of football. We've challenged ourselves. That's what you are going to have to do when you go up and play a Notre Dame team that's as talented as this group is. Put a full 60 minutes of that brand of football out there."

A single point separates the 13th-ranked Irish (5-1) from unbeaten status, that being a 20-19 loss to a formidable Georgia squad in mid September. Notre Dame has grown from soft to stout, relying on a powerful, ball control running game and showing toughness on defense.

The Irish rank fourth nationally in opponents red zone touchdown percentage (35 percent), which is one reason this group might just be around for the long haul.

"I think it's really important to do a great job of matching personnel," Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly said. "I think we've done that. Our ability to get personnel in and out of the game to match personnel groupings has really helped us in that area and not get shored in -- for example, being in nickel when an extra tight end is in the game or two backs are in the game."

Most people know about USC quarterback Sam Darnold, but even he admits that the Trojans don't beat Utah without a stellar effort from the defense.

Linebacker Cameron Smith has really come into his own, showing great leadership skills and an ability to always be around the football. He made 16 stops against Utah, and had an interception, so his play will be vital if USC is to stop Notre Dame's fifth-ranked rushing offense (308 yards per game).

“They truly believe in running the ball first to set up the pass game,” Helton said.

USC is no slouch with its back to the wall, allowing just 41.4 percent touchdowns in the red zone, good for 12th nationally.

"I think we've got two good ball clubs right now, I'll be honest with you,” Helton said. “There are a lot of high stakes on the line. It’s great for college football when both teams are doing well, and there’s so much excitement around the game on a national scope. It makes it fun for the players, the coaches and the fans.”

Darnold definitely has that "it" factor, even if he has been more prone to turnovers this season. His nine interceptions in seven games matches his total from all of last season, and has lost three fumbles. He's his own harshest critic, stating that he "needs to play better, be more careful," but he also dazzles with his ability to step up in the pocket and make throws that few in America can make.

Darnold has completed just under 63 percent of his passes, but has improved on his decision-making, throwing six touchdowns to just one interception in the last two games.

Kelly knows that he merits a ton of attention from the Irish defense.

"What separates him from the other quarterbacks is his ability to find that open window in tight spaces with a quick, quick release," Kelly said. "I mean, that ball comes out of his hand as well as anybody that I've seen."

Ronald Jones Jr. has rushed for 318 yards in the last three games, scoring a touchdown in each, and averages 106.7 yards per contest, with eight scores. He's shifty and elusive enough that the Irish cannot commit all of their resources to stopping Darnold.
Notre Dame QB Brandon Wimbush is a major dual threat (Indianapolis Star)

Jones won't be the only standout ballcarrier on the field.

Notre Dame's Josh Adams, ranked seventh nationally with 129.3 yards per game and a 9.02 average per carry. The Irish commit to running the football, taking some pressure off of quarterback Brandon Wimbush in the passing game. Wimbush has eight rushing touchdowns and is lethal in the Irish's spread attack. He has been erratic in the passing game, completing just 52.3 percent, but has done a good job minimizing mistakes, tossing six touchdowns to just two interceptions.

The Irish defense has allowed just one rushing touchdown and is among the top 10 nationally in turnover margin. New defensive coordinator Bob Diaco has Notre Dame playing more aggressively on defense, disguising coverages and pressures. Notre Dame has taken the football away eight times in the last three contests.

This is the first time since 2009 that both teams enter the game ranked, and the stakes could be as high as they were in 2005, when USC was ranked No. 1 and Notre Dame ninth. That was the year of the infamous "Bush Push," when USC tailback Reggie Bush gave an assist to quarterback Matt Leinart on a keeper with seven seconds left to play. Leinart crossed the goal line and USC won 34-31.

USC has won 12 of the last 16 matchups, but the Irish have won two of the last three contests in South Bend.

"I think it's important our players are aware of the game and the circumstances because that's why they come here," Kelly said. "It's important not to just bury your head in the sand; be aware of it.

 "I would like to think it's going to be a great atmosphere in the stadium. I'm sure our students will be back for it. I'm sure it will be a great atmosphere."

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

No. 2 Penn State Awaiting Challenge From No. 19 Michigan


Penn State entered the 2017 football season as one of the favorites to contend for the Big Ten title, and nothing the Nittany Lions have done thus far has changed that outlook. PSU has ascended to No. 2 in the national rankings, winning all but one of its six games in dominating fashion.

The first real test of the season comes this Saturday night in Beaver Stadium when No. 19 Michigan arrives, fresh off an overtime victory against Indiana. The Wolverines struggled a bit offensively, but showed heart and determination when it was most needed, and lived to fight another day.
Penn State's Shareef Miller has been a defensive force in 2017 (exploreClarion.com)

The Wolverines will be walking into a hostile atmosphere, which makes Penn State coach James Franklin smile from ear to ear.

"We're excited," Franklin said. "Obviously it's going to be a great environment. I think people realize the only thing I like more than Christmas is a white-out football game. I'm jacked up like I am every year because the environment is special. I think Beaver Stadium on a normal game day is a top-five atmosphere. I think a white-out game day is something I think you don't really understand unless you can come experience it for yourself. I love standing at that tunnel, feeling the energy and electricity in the stadium, then running out. After that, you really don't kind of realize it again until the game's over."

Many fans know Penn State (6-0, 3-0) because of talented running back Saquon Barkley, but its the Nittany Lions' defense that is making headlines.

Penn State leads the nation in scoring defense, allowing just nine points per game, and is in the top 10 against the pass and in total defense. PSU has been able to wreak havoc up front, with Shareef Miller and Shaka Toney combining for 12 tackles for loss, which has given the secondary the ability to play freely. Penn State has nine interceptions, with junior cornerback Amani Oruwariye leading the way with three, and is second nationally in turnover margin.

Even though Michigan (5-1, 2-1) has struggled on offense for the bulk of the season, Franklin doesn't believe this will be an easy night for his defense.

"Offensively they're what I would describe as a traditional Big Ten offense, where they're going to try to run the ball down your throat, play-action pass," he said. "Very talented, very skilled. Obviously Mason Cole, feels like he's been playing there forever. I think is going to end up being a high draft choice, offensive lineman for them.

"Expect a lot of gap schemes, power, counter, things like that. But they're a traditional Big Ten offense. It's going to be a challenge. I think we all know Coach (Jim) Harbaugh runs the offense for them."

Barkley is the the straw that stirs the drink for the Nittany Lions, leading the nation in all-purpose yardage and scoring nine total touchdowns. Even if Michigan is successful at keeping him relatively contained, there are so many ways Penn State can utilize him that it is often a frustrating endeavor.

“He can catch the ball out of the backfield; he can run all the assortment of runs inside the tackles, on the edge; very good pass protector," Harbaugh said. "Can be used as a multi-purpose back that can do everything well.

"It'll take a team effort to go against a great player (in Barkley). But also a really outstanding offense with a really good quarterback, great receivers, line, backs -- they're hitting on all cylinders."

Michigan's offense has been a concern, ranking 87th nationally in total offense and 117th in converting on third down. The Wolverines will have to put some sustained drives together if they want to keep Barkley and company off the field.

“We want no turnovers, we want no sacks, no penalties, no missed assignments," Harbaugh said. "You’re striving for that perfection. Rarely do you get to perfection. We want to be excellent. That’s where our goals are.

“Very good defense. Don’t see a lot of big plays right now. Don’t see them giving up a lot of big plays in the running game or the passing game, which means they’re really sound. You can already see really good players in the front seven and in the secondary. They get to the ball, they close up gaps, and they’re rarely out of position. Still looking. Still looking to where the best way is to attack this defense and move the ball and score points.”

There are no such concerns about the Wolverines stop unit, however.
Michigan linebacker Devin Bush has been all over the field this season (MLive.com)

Michigan leads the nation in total defense and is allowing just 3.68 yards per play, and is top five against both the run and the pass. The Wolverines have won the last three meetings, holding Penn State to 16 points or less in all three.

It will be up to coordinator Don Brown to decide when to blitz, and when he thinks he can get there with just four. Brown loves to bring pressure, and in Maurice Hurst (7 TFL) and Rashan Gary (5 TFL) he has two of the best defensive linemen in the nation. But it isn't just those two. Chase Winovich leads the team in sacks with 5.5, and sophomore linebacker Devin Bush has had a breakout campaign, with 4.5 sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss. So it is definitely a team effort with the Wolverines.

Michigan has a chance to silence the naysayers, the people who say it isn't quite where it needs to be. Playing on a stage this big stage has energized Harbaugh and his players.

“Yeah, I’m excited about it and if you talk to the players about how they feel, I feel like they would feel the same way," he said. "Excited for the opportunity. They’ve been on the big stage already this year multiple times in big games and having another crack at this, knowing our guys the way I do, they’re competitors, so feel they’d be excited.”

Penn State knows that it is all right there, a chance to put another impressive notch in its belt over a brand-name opponent. The high national ranking and spotlight isn't changing the way Penn State prepares.

“For me, it hasn’t really felt any different,” Franklin said. “This is my first time, as a head coach, as a player, as an assistant, that I’ve been ranked this high. I wake up in the morning still feeling like there’s still a lot of areas we have improve, a lot of different things we can work on. I’ve got tremendous respect for our opponent, Michigan, so we spending all week kinda focused on that.”

Monday, October 16, 2017

Monday Musings -- Oct. 16

One of the greatest, most embraceable things about college football, is its sheer chaos.

It happens every year, on random weekends, when least expected -- kingpins fall, pretenders are elevated, and fans hang on every moment.

Chaos in college football is just part of the natural (dis)order of things, and there was no better example of that than this past weekend.
Dabo Swinney wears a dejected look after being hit by chaos (Fanbuzz)

It started on Friday -- the 13th, no less -- as Clemson ventured to Syracuse for what was supposed to be a tuneup game, a warm up for a testing November which would include showdowns with suddenly formidable North Carolina State, ailing but always dangerous Florida State, and a Palmetto State hatefest with South Carolina to close out the regular season. Even though two of the previous three battles with Syracuse were respectable, last year's was a 54-0 demolition, a schoolyard beatdown in which the Tigers showed no mercy.

This year promised more of the same, as Clemson was beginning to gain steam and would prove that it was once again the toughest dog in the yard, that it wasn't going to hand over its crown willingly.

Only it wasn't, and it did.

Syracuse won 27-24, setting off the biggest celebration in the Carrier Dome since the days of Marvin Harrison and Donovan McNabb. This time it was Eric Dungey and Steve Ishmael, players who would no longer be faceless, who would be seen as conquerors.

That was the first part of the chain reaction.

The second came more than 2,700 miles to the west, where wildfires were on the minds and toxic conditions were in the air, where the Cal Bears would send eighth-ranked Washington State into the long night, empty.

It was a mauling, almost from the outset. Cal forced eight turnovers, harassed Luke Falk into five interceptions and made Cougars coach Mike Leach admit, about his own team, "We were pathetic. We were a pathetic bunch of front-runners."

And it was just a harbinger of things to come.

Before Saturday ended, the baker's dozen of unbeaten teams had been whittled down to eight, including losses by Group of Five hopefuls Navy and San Diego State. There were narrow escapes -- USC winning by one at home over Utah -- overtimes -- Michigan fending off a game Indiana squad -- and a Phoenix rising from the ashes at LSU, which beat Auburn 27-23 after trailing 20-0 in the second quarter. You can bet Coach O is having a big laugh at those who wanted him gone mere weeks ago, when his team was a wreck and losing at home to Troy. Now, his Tigers all but knocked the other Tigers out of the race for the SEC West crown.

Well into the wee hours of the morning it continued, until formerly unbeaten Washington saw itself on the wrong end of a 13-7 decision against Arizona State -- Arizona State! -- the same team that had allowed at least 30 points in every game this year. Suddenly, the Sun Devils looked like the '85 Bears reincarnated.

This chaos is nothing new, of course.

One only has to go back a decade or so, to 2007, the mother of all mother-effing years of anarchy.

The season started with Michigan losing to Appalachian State, the first ever FCS over an FBS team in history, and ended with a champion that somehow lost to Arkansas and Kentucky (both in triple overtime!), yet beat Alabama, so maybe nothing should have been surprising. 
Few believed LSU would win the 2007 national title (Saturday Blitz)

That was the year when, in a 56-day span, 11 teams No. 2 ranked teams lost football games. It's like that spot was the plague, where teams went to have their seasons die. Included in that bunch was 39-point underdog Stanford (under the guidance of a nascent Jim Harbaugh) knocking off  second-ranked USC, at the time the biggest upset in terms of Vegas pointspread in the history of the sport. Eventually, Cal, South Florida and Boston College would all lose as No. 2 teams, and Ohio State would even get into the fray, topping them all by losing as a No. 1 squad to mediocre Illinois. Oregon was the next No. 2 to fall, followed by Kansas. LSU lost to Arkansas as a No. 1 team, and Missouri, obviously unable to handle prosperity, got blown out by Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, falling out of the top spot.

LSU beat Tennessee in the SEC title game, which supposedly meant little in the grand scheme of things, but ended up meaning everything. Other dominoes fell -- No. 2 West Virginia lost to huge underdog Pitt, beginning Rich Rodriguez's downward spiral, and Missouri had the aforementioned loss to the Sooners.

That left an improbable two-loss LSU going against an equally improbable Ohio State, which went from a ranking of seventh prior to beating Michigan to being the No. 1 team in the BCS standings, vying for the title.

We all remember who won that night -- LSU.

But chaos won the season.

And it returns every year, with an agenda but no forewarning, feasting on unprepared, sloppy teams, teams that believe they just need to show up to win. And it isn't always a boffo matchup of ranked teams that does it, but rather a completely out of the blue -- appropriate, given that blue is a primary color of both Syracuse and Cal -- upset.

It is equal parts frustration and exhilaration, and it's what keeps us coming back week after week.

Saying Goodbye
We can now officially say sayonara to a quartet of teams suffering a second loss -- they will be instructed where to pick up their lovely parting gifts. Please, a round of applause for Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Utah and Auburn. They will keep playing, it's just that no one will be paying attention.

There no matchups of unbeatens, but there are some tasty games on the docket -- USC (6-1) against Notre Dame (5-1), Michigan (5-1) facing off against Penn State (6-0), new darlings Syracuse (4-3) heading to Miami (5-0), and UCF (5-0) taking on Navy (5-1).

The winless have been whittled down to five, and will go down by at least one as 0-5 Georgia Southern takes on 0-6 UMass.

Until next week.

Sunday, October 15, 2017

Sunday Morning Tally -- Oct. 15

TOP GAMES
(12) Oklahoma vs. Texas (+9)
Pick -- Oklahoma 33-30; Score -- Oklahoma 29-24 (SU/ATS W)
 
(10) Auburn at LSU (+7.5)
Pick -- LSU 27-26; Score -- LSU 27-23 (SU/ATS W)

(25) Navy at Memphis (-3.5)
Pick -- Navy 44-38; Score -- Memphis 30-27 (SU L/ATS W)

OTHER GAMES
Florida State at Duke (+7.5)
Pick -- Florida State 24-13; Score -- Florida State 17-10 (SU W/ATS L)

(20) NC State at Pitt (+11)
Pick -- NC State 35-14; Score -- NC State 35-17 (SU/ATS W)

(17) Michigan at Indiana (+8)
Pick -- Michigan 24-20; Score -- Michigan 27-20 (OT) (SU/ATS W)

(24) Texas Tech at West Virginia (-3.5)
Pick -- West Virginia 48-41; Score -- West Virginia 46-35 (SU/ATS W)

(6) TCU at Kansas State (+6.5)
Pick -- TCU 36-21; Score -- TCU 26-6 (SU/ATS W)

South Carolina at Tennessee (-3)
Pick -- South Carolina 30-23; Score -- South Carolina 15-9 (SU/ATS W)

Virginia at North Carolina (+3.5)
Pick -- Virginia 26-17; Score -- Virginia 20-14 (SU/ATS W)

Northwestern at Maryland (+3.5)
Pick -- Northwestern 28-16; Score -- Northwestern 37-21 (SU/ATS W)

Purdue at (7) Wisconsin (-17.5)
Pick  -- Wisconsin 34-19; Score -- Wisconsin 17-9 (SU/ATS W)

Georgia Tech at (13) Miami (-6.5)
Pick -- Georgia Tech 31-28; Score -- Miami 25-24 (SU L/ATS W)

Texas A&M at Florida (-3)
Pick -- Texas A&M 26-21; Score -- Texas A&M 19-17 (SU/ATS W)

(21) Michigan State at Minnesota (+4.5)
Pick -- Michigan State 23-10; Score -- Michigan State 30-27 (SU W/ATS L)

(9) Ohio State at Nebraska (+24)
Pick -- Ohio State 45-23; Score -- Ohio State 56-14 (SU W/ATS L)

Utah at (13) USC (-13)
Pick -- USC 34-27; Score -- USC 28-27 (SU/ATS W)

UCLA at Arizona (+2.5)
Pick -- Arizona 34-31; Score -- Arizona 47-30 (SU/ATS W)

New Mexico at Fresno State (-1)
Pick -- New Mexico 34-27; Score -- Fresno State 38-0 (SU/ATS L)

Boise State at (19) San Diego State (-5)
Pick -- San Diego State 34-24; Score -- Boise State 31-14 (SU/ATS L)

Oregon at (23) Stanford (-10)
Pick -- Stanford 40-34; Score -- Stanford 49-7 (SU W/ATS L)

2017 RECORD
SU -- Week 18-7, Season 106-35; ATS -- Week 17-8, Season 90-68-1

Saturday, October 14, 2017

By The Numbers -- Oct. 14

TOP GAMES
(12) Oklahoma vs. Texas (at Dallas)
ANALYSIS
An angry Oklahoma is a dangerous Oklahoma, and you can bet the Sooners will be seething after losing at home to Iowa State last week. Texas could be on the bad end of things, but has looked better each week, which isn't surprising given Tom Herman's track record. The Longhorns will need to figure out a way to keep Baker Mayfield from having a field day, but that may be tough as Texas allows 249 passing yards per game. Texas is young and has depth issues, but this is an odd game. UT has come in unranked the last four meetings, against a ranked Sooners squad, and twice pulled off the upset.
Line -- Oklahoma -9; Pick -- Oklahoma 33-30
 
(10) Auburn at LSU
ANALYSIS
Auburn starts a road swing that will have them away from Jordan-Hare until mid-November, and starting the road trip off with a swing through Baton Rouge isn't exactly a favor. Auburn is the better team on paper, but we know what they say about paper, right? LSU has won seven of the last 10 meetings, and all three losses were at Auburn. LSU has something to prove, and the tenacity shown last week in a win over Florida was a good start. Look for LSU's offense to evolve even more this week, though there is a big question about whether the Oline can block Auburn's swarming defensive front. Auburn's run game is producing big time (22nd nationally, 18 TDs), and QB Jarrett Stidham has been efficient in the passing game. This one has all of the makings of your typical, wild Saturday afternoon SEC slugfest.
Line -- Auburn -7.5; Pick -- LSU 27-26

(25) Navy at Memphis
ANALYSIS
Speaking of defensive battles -- wait, we're on the wrong game. Defense is a dirty word to both of these teams, who each possess the ability to light up the scoreboard. Zach Abey and company could feast on a Memphis defense that ranks 94th against the run, while Riley Ferguson should have plenty of time to look for Anthony Miller and myriad other targets against a Navy pass defense that allows nearly 230 yards per game. The Middies are having their typical under the radar season, while Memphis has a hint of desperation having already lost a conference game. That adds up to must see TV -- at least for the 27 people who have CBS Sports Network.
Line -- Memphis -3.5; Pick -- Navy 44-38

OTHER GAMES
Florida State at Duke -- In most years this game wouldn't be working picking, as Florida State has won 19 in a row. But a stagnant offense, against a Duke defense that has been very good most of the season -- there's some actual intrigue. The Blue Devils have been their own worst enemy in losses to Miami and Virginia, turning the ball over four times and converting less than 30 percent on third down. FSU has some injuries, but more overall talent and depth. FSU QB James Blackman is starting to get comfortable, and Derwin James and crew can still ball out on defense.
Line -- Florida State -7.5; Pick -- Florida State 24-13

(20) NC State at Pitt -- A game of contrasts at quarterback -- NCState has Ryan Finley, who has yet to throw an interception this season, while Pitt has the untested Ben DiNucci, who takes the place of injured Max Browne. NCState has the athletes, the confidence and a bye week ahead, so there won't be any lack of concentration. Pittsburgh has won the last four meetings at home, including a 34-0 shutout last time (in 1987).
Line -- NCState -11; Pick -- NC State 35-14

(17) Michigan at Indiana -- Is Michigan overrated, or is Michigan State vastly improved? We probably won't know the answer to either question for another couple of weeks, but the Spartans were the better team last week. Michigan has problems generating points, and against an explosive offense like Indiana's that could be a concern. Factor in that UM faces Penn State next weekend and you could be looking at some wandering minds. Peyton Ramsey has been solid at quarterback, and don't be surprised if Mike DeBord has a few surprises in store for the Wolverines defense. Taking the ball out of the hands of QB John O'Korn and focusing on the ground game might be the wise approach for the Fighting Harbaughs.
Line -- Michigan -8; Pick -- Michigan 24-20

(24) Texas Tech at West Virginia  -- Two offenses ranked in the top 10 in scoring, led by quarterbacks who know how to sling it? As Maximus said, "are you not entertained? is this not why you are here?" Fans of defense, look elsewhere. Everyone else, enjoy the fun. Tech has won just five of its last 15 conference road games while the Mountaineers have won three straight in the series.
Line -- West Virginia -3.5; Pick -- West Virginia 48-41

(6) TCU at Kansas State -- The Horned Frogs Revenge Tour continues, and the Wildcats are next in line. TCU has already turned the tables on Arkansas, Oklahoma State and West Virginia, and since K-State won a non-thrilling 30-6 contests last year, it would make sense that Gary Patterson's bunch has another circled game. KSU lost dual threat QB Jesse Ertz last week, which means Alex Delton gets his first career start. It's a tough spot for Delton, especially against a TCU defense which allows less than 20 points per game.
Line -- TCU -6.5; Pick -- TCU 36-21

South Carolina at Tennessee -- We only included this game because it's another chance to pile on Butch Jones. Some people might tell you the Vols aren't that bad, but they would be wrong. There is little flow on offense, and with some reports stating that backup QB Quentin Dormady has left the program the turmoil level has gone up even higher. South Carolina scored three times on defense last week against Arkansas, and Tennessee is ranked 104th in turnover margin this season. Hey, at least the Vols are still life champions, right? The visitor has won just twice in the last 10 meetings, but we do not care about such trivial numbers.
Line -- Tennessee -3; Pick -- South Carolina 30-23

Virginia at North Carolina -- So, does North Carolina have a real football team, or a fake football team? Hard to know what is and isn't real in Chapel Hill these days. What is real is Virginia's defense, ranked 25th nationally and led by LB Micah Kiser and S Quin Blanding. You'll see those guys on Sundays in the near future, and it doesn't appear that the Tar Heels have the horses to counter the Cavaliers stop unit. North Carolina has won seven in a row in the series.
Line -- Virginia -3.5; Pick -- Virginia 26-17

Northwestern at Maryland -- Maryland, it was nice knowing you. What started out as a promising campaign has gotten ugly really fast. The Terps allowed 62 points to Ohio State last weekend, and face a Northwestern team that, while challenged offensively, is solid against the run. Since Maryland has shown it can't throw the ball with QB Max Bortenschlager, the Wildcats appear to have the edge. Maryland is 6-17 in conference home games.
Line -- Northwestern -3.5; Pick -- Northwestern 28-16

Purdue at (7) Wisconsin -- Purdue showed some moxie in knocking off Minnesota last weekend, but Wisconsin is a bit of a step up. Still, do we really know how good the Badgers are? They have played absolutely no one of substance, so the defensive numbers -- which have them seventh in the country -- could be skewed. Jeff Brohm is savvy enough that he will show Wisconsin some different looks, and he isn't afraid to go wild every now and again. The Badgers are pretty one dimensional on offense, though that dimension has been frightening of late, as running back Jonathan Taylor has scored five times in the last three games, going over 200 yards twice. Purdue has lost the last nine meetings by an average of 17 points.
Line -- Wisconsin -17.5; Pick  -- Wisconsin 34-19

Georgia Tech at (13) Miami -- A contrast in styles, with Georgia Tech wanting to control the clock and Miami wanting to convert the big play. Tech QB Taquon Marshall ranks eighth nationally in rushing with nine TDs, and Tech grinds out nearly 400 yards per game on the ground, second best in the country. Miami will be without RB Mark Walton, who is out for the season with an ankle injury, which means more of the onus will fall to quarterback Malik Rosier, who faces a stingy Georgia Tech pass defense. This one has all the makings of an upset -- a Miami team that looks to be back, with an easy game the following week against Syracuse. You think I won't do it? Watch me.
Line -- Miami -6.5; Pick -- Georgia Tech 31-28

Texas A&M at Florida -- A&M's first-ever SEC game was against Florida in 2012, won 20-17 by the Gators. That Aggies team wasn't nearly as explosive as this one, and Florida takes way too much effort to score points. Florida's secondary is one of the best in the nation, but has yet to face a player as dynamic as Christian Kirk, who averages over 15 yards per play and has six touchdowns. Throw in the fact that Florida hasn't seen a quarterback with the running ability of Kellen Mond and it could be a long day in Gainesville. If Florida's offense is ever going to bust out, it could be this week as A&M's defense is allowing over 5.6 yards per play. Florida is just 5-14 vs. the SEC West since 2010, losing 8 of the last 10.
Line -- Florida -3; Pick -- Texas A&M 26-21

(21) Michigan State at Minnesota -- Now we'll see if Sparty is really back, or if it was just able to get up for rival Michigan. Like last week, Sparty faces a team with a solid defense -- Minnesota ranks 22nd nationally -- but not much offense -- Gophers are 97th. Brian Lewerke continues to impress at QB for the Green, and the Gophers D appears to be regressing, allowing over 50 percent on third down conversions in consecutive losses to Maryland and Purdue. Sparty has won four straight, holding Minnesota under 10 points in three of those games.
Line -- Michigan State -4.5; Pick -- Michigan State 23-10

(9) Ohio State at Nebraska -- The names say the game is a dandy, but the performances this season say otherwise. The Buckeyes have won four in a row, while Nebraska is licking its wounds from a 38-17 home loss to Wisconsin. Nebraska is 54th in tackles for loss allowed, while the Buckeyes lead the nation in stops behind the line of scrimmage (57). Huskers QB Tanner Lee has been very average, tossing 11 TDs to 10 INTs -- four of which have been returned for touchdowns. Nebraska really isn't outstanding in anything, except maybe the receiving corps, while the Buckeyes are the only team in the country in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense. QB JT Barrett has been stellar the last three weeks, putting up QBRs above 90 in each game - albeit against UNLV, Rutgers and Maryland. Nebraska is better, and LB Chris Weber is a talent. There has been too much talk swirling about Mike Riley's job security, and there isn't enough depth for the Huskers to stay competitive against OSU. Nebraska is on a 4-14 run vs ranked teams.
Line -- Ohio State -24; Pick -- Ohio State 45-23

Utah at (13) USC -- Well, well, well, looky what we have here -- Utah is sixth in the nation in interceptions, and USC QB Sam Darnold has been handing them out like candy at Halloween, throwing at least one pick in every game this season. USC has had big problems on the offensive line, and Utah has the personnel to cause problems and take Darnold off of his sets. USC is much better offensively at home, averaging over 7 yards per play and 39 points, nearly 11 points better than their road performances. Utah is physical and will be able to create some problems, but, outside of receiver Darren Carrington, there doesn't appear to be enough firepower on Utah's side to come out ahead. the Utes have gone 14-5 on the road since 2014 but have lost by double digits in each of their last two trips to Los Angeles.
Line -- USC -13; Pick -- USC 34-27

UCLA at Arizona -- The Wildcats are an impressive 3-2, beating Colorado on the road last week and losing to a good Houston team by just three points early in September. Khalil Tate set an FBS rushing record for quarterbacks with 327 yards against the Buffs, and should get the nod against a Bruins defense that ranks 129th out of 130 teams nationally against the run. That means it could be up to Josh Rosen to keep UCLA's offense humming, and it could happen against a UA defense that ranks 106th in passing yards allowed. Rosen has thrown four of his five interceptions this season away from home, but Arizona has allowed 31 or more points in four of the last five meetings. We have dual coaching hot seat watches in this game, with Jim Mora leading Rich Rodriguez by a slight margin.
Line -- UCLA -2.5; Pick -- Arizona 34-31

New Mexico at Fresno State -- The Lobos are more explosive on offense and allow fewer yards per play (albeit by a negligible margin), yet are underdogs? Help me out here. New Mexico gets it done on the ground with a host of runners, most notably Richard McQuarley (just under 6 YPC and 5 TDs). The Lobos had six rushing touchdowns last week against Air Force, but face a Fresno State team that has allowed just six TD runs all season. The freshman combo of Ronnie Rivers and Jordan Mims has been solid for the Bulldogs, and QB Marcus McMaryion (formerly of Oregon State) has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes, with just one pick. Fresno has won nine of the last 10 meetings. It will be interesting to see just how much Lobos coach Bob Davie berates his players and coaches, since that's one thing he's extremely good at.
Line -- Fresno State -1; Pick -- New Mexico 34-27

Boise State at (19) San Diego State -- The Aztecs beat Boise in the last home meeting (2013), and will get tested by a Broncos defense that ranks 19th in the nation against the run. I mention that because the Aztecs will lean on Heisman candidate Rashaad Penny, the nation's third leading rusher at 165.5 yards per game, early and often. The Aztecs are unbeaten, yet believe themselves to be the underdog based on Boise's history and prominence in the Mountain West. San Diego State has been pretty good on defense, and should present problems for Boise's offensively challenged squad. Boise is 13-6 away from home since 2014, but the Aztecs have been very protective of their home turf, losing just three times in their last 23 home tilts.
Line -- San Diego State -5; Pick -- San Diego State 34-24

Oregon at (23) Stanford -- The Cardinal have won three of the last five meetings, including upsetting the Ducks #1 and #2 squads in consecutive years (2012-13), and enter this one on a three game winning streak. Oregon has questions at quarterback after losing Justin Herbert to a collarbone injury, but could have success against a Stanford defense uncharacteristically ranked in the 100s. It will be a test for Bryce Love, who leads the nation in rushing with over 1200 yards, going against an Oregon rush defense ranked 10th in the nation, allowing just 2.83 yards per carry. Love has eight straight games with at least one 50-yard run, and will need him to run wild as there are still questions at quarterback. Oregon leads the country in sacks and is sixth in tackles for loss, and injuries along Stanford's offensive line could be just enough for the Ducks defense to make some plays.
Line -- Stanford -10; Pick -- Stanford 40-34 

2017 RECORD
SU -- Week (W/TH/F) 1-3, Season 89-28; ATS -- Week 2-2, Season 75-62-1 

Friday, October 13, 2017

Memphis Welcomes Unbeaten Middies To Liberty Bowl

It isn't often that the American Athletic Conference gets publicity this late into the season, but Saturday's showdown between No. 25 Navy and Memphis isn't your average Group of Five contest.

Navy comes in on a high after knocking off Air Force 48-45, getting a touchdown pass with 15 seconds left to stay unbeaten. QB Zach Abey, the nation's second leading rusher at 174 yards per game, found Tyler Carmona from 16 yards out to clinch the contest.
Navy QB Zach Abey is one of the nation's most dangerous runners (Navy Times)

Memphis, meanwhile, has its own smile after putting up 70 points on an overmatched UConn squad. Tigers quarterback Riley Ferguson threw seven touchdown passes in the game, and helped Memphis set a school record for total offense with 711 yards.

Navy has won the last two meetings, scoring 87 points in those contests. Memphis coach Mike Norvell knows that his defense will have to play better than its ranking of 123rd if it is to have a chance for victory.

“Navy has some great playmakers. It’s a very impressive offensive unit,” Norvell said. “You have to defend the entire field against Navy. It all starts with trying to stop the dive. Then you have to deal with the quarterback keep and the slotback pitch while being accountable to all the play-action.”

Not to be outdone, Navy coach Ken Niumatololo rubbed his eyes in disbelief after seeing Memphis put up the 70 on UConn. He knows first hand about Ferguson, who threw for 333 yards in last year's game.

“Riley Ferguson is a tremendous talent. We’ve seen him in-person,” Niumatalolo said. "He has a cannon for an arm and can really whip the football around.”

The stakes are high, especially for Navy (5-0, 3-0). A victory would put the Middies at 4-0 in league play and all but eliminate Memphis (4-1, 1-1) from contention in the West Division. Houston is the only other unbeaten on that side, and won't play Navy until Nov. 24th. A Memphis victory could throw the division into turmoil, and Navy knows that it needs to be ready to defend a passing offense that can exploit all areas of the field.

“Obviously, Memphis has a really good offense. They do whatever they need to do,” Niumatalolo said. “They are really, really good at throwing the football, and also run the ball real well. It’s going to be a tough challenge. Maybe we can petition to have 13 players out there on defense.”

Navy has rushed for 400 yards in three straight games, and knows that the best way to keep Memphis from scoring is to control the clock. No team has rushed for 400 yards in four straight games since 2000, so Memphis definitely has a challenge ahead.

"Obviously, Navy, their offensive presentation is something that you don't see very often," Norvell said. "We spend a lot of time in the offseason looking at it, trying to evaluate what best fits our personnel, what's the best way to be able to contain what they do. It's always going to be a challenge.

"The thing that makes it so difficult with them, you're so concerned with what you're doing in your presentation, but also to simulate the look that they have is as hard as anything. When you look at your scout teams and your practice squads, that's definitely very difficult to do, especially how fast and efficient they are. And they've got great playmakers. A quarterback, a receiver, a slot back, a fullback, all guys that can really make you pay. This is a team that is definitely difficult to prepare for. Our guys are excited about doing our best in getting prepared for them."

Navy leads the nation in rushing at 414.2 yards per game, and is 12th in total offense at over 500 yards per contest. Abey isn't the only dangerous runner for the Middies, as Chris High and Malcolm Perry have over 700 yards and four touchdowns between them. Memphis ranks 94th defensively against the run, so will need to do something to counteract the Middies powerful ground attack.
Memphis needs a strong showing from Riley Ferguson (Charlotte Observer)

Memphis prefers to take the air route, ranking 15th in passing and 11th in total offense. Anthony Miller and  Phil Mayhue have combined for 299 career catches, and Miller has 35 grabs and seven touchdowns this season.

Both teams have big play offenses -- ranking in the top 20 in explosive plays of 20-plus and 30-plus yards -- so the scoreboard operator could be very busy.

Both coaches believe their teams are in the proper frame of mind heading into the game, which kicks off at 3:45 p.m. Saturday in Memphis.

“There is definitely no time to celebrate. Memphis was the preseason favorite for a reason and is definitely living up to that billing,” Niumatalolo said. “Both teams recognize this is a critical game for the conference, especially the West side. We have to go through Memphis. It’s always tough to play on the road and this will be a real battle.”

Norvell agrees, saying, "I think there's an excitement for the opportunity. They've competed for the divisional championship, and then the conference championship last year. We know this is one of the best teams in our league. They've proven it, they're top 25, they're undefeated.

"They're doing an exceptional job again this year. So to say  that for our team to look at it as anything more than just another opportunity, it's a great opportunity because it's against a great football team."

Navy is attempting to go 6-0 for the first time since 1979.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

No.10 Auburn Roars Into Bayou Country To Take On Rejuvenated LSU

There is still a lot of football left to be played this season, but this week certainly feels like a "prove it" week in the SEC, certainly as far as Auburn and LSU are concerned.

Auburn has won five in a row, against somewhat suspect competition, after losing its opener to Clemson, and has ascended to 10th in the national rankings. LSU won a huge game last weekend against Florida, erasing the sting of a home loss to Troy two weekends ago but still with some struggles.

Both teams are still in the hunt in the SEC West, but the loser this weekend could face a real uphill battle.

Auburn (5-1, 3-0) is one of a number of SEC teams living on defense, allowing more than 14 points just once this season, giving up 23 to Ole Miss, though two scores came in the fourth quarter well after the outcome was decided. Auburn ranks sixth in the country in scoring defense and among the top 25 against both the pass and the run.
Auburn's Kerryon Johnson leads the nation with 12 touchdowns (SEC Country)
LSU (4-2, 1-1) righted the ship -- at least temporarily -- with a gritty 17-16 victory at Florida last Saturday,  and should be getting back some key players for this game, including defensive end Frank Herron. Fellow end Rashard Lawrence has not been 100 percent, nor have running backs Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams.

Auburn coach Gus Malzahn knows that LSU will be brimming with confidence, so his team will need to stay on task if it wants to continue on its quest for an SEC West title.

"Our message has been each week to get better, and the last three weeks I feel like we’ve done that," Malzahn said. "We are going to have to continue to do that on the road at LSU.”

Malzahn wants to keep LSU off balance, and unlike Florida has the parts to do it.

Jarrett Stidham has steadily improved at quarterback, ranking among the nation's top 10 in passing efficiency and completing over 71 percent of his passes. Stidham has gone three straight games without an interception, and continued strong play from him will keep the Tigers offense humming.

“He’s getting better," Malzahn said. "You can tell he’s getting more comfortable and more confidence and he’s playing at a high level and we’ve just got to keep building upon that.”

Kerryon Johnson isn't typically talked about as one of the best running backs in the SEC, but with a nation's best 12 touchdowns and a nearly six yards per carry average, maybe he should be. Johnson hasn't been healthy for much of the season, but Malzahn has seen signs that he's almost all the way back.

“If you look at the last three weeks, you could tell he hasn’t been 100 percent," the coach said. "At Missouri, he had a couple chances to hit some seams and turn on the gas. He didn’t want to re-pull his hamstring, so he geared it down. Against Mississippi State, you saw him break and he geared it down. Last week when he broke, he was able to turn it loose. You can see that he is getting healthier. Last week he wasn’t quite 100 percent, but he was close. Our goal this week is to have him 100 percent. We will be very smart with him in practice. He is playing at a very high level and when he is on the field, he can do a lot of different things.”

LSU didn't dazzle offensively against the Gators, but showed signs of improvement by converting nearly 50 percent on third down, not turning the ball over and rushing for over 200 yards with banged up running backs, against one of the best front sevens in the conference.

The Tigers found a way to get it done, and there is an overwhelming belief that all of the turmoil surrounding the program may have just brought the team closer together.

"It was every ounce of energy, every person in the building gave it," LSU coach Ed Orgeron said. "And that's what it takes. And our mindset was of that. And we finally galvanized as a team. I don't think before we were playing as a team. I think we galvanized as a staff. I think that was important.

"We had better practices. And, again, it came down to one point. Let's face it. The kicker missed an extra point. You know what I'm saying? That's what happened. We're in the SEC. It's very physical. When we were up 17-3, I wish we could have kept that lead and kept sustaining. But we let them get back in with some drives, stopped ourselves with some drives. But I believe that every game is going to have to be: We win as a football team, not one unit or the other."

Guice has not rushed for over 100 yards since early September but showed moments last week where he had that familiar explosion through the hole. He and Williams will need to play well if LSU is to dictate to Auburn, because LSU ranks below 40th nationally in most important offensive categories.

Defense has long been LSU's calling card, and this year is no different. The Tigers are seventh nationally in sacks, an area where Auburn has been weak, ranking 122nd in protecting the quarterback.
LSU's Arden Key will be a focal point for the Tigers D (Associated Press)

That means Herron and Lawrence and Arden Key, who has yet to really get it going this season, could be ready to wreak havoc.

Auburn begins a tricky part of its schedule, with this being the first of three straight road games. The Tigers won't play at home again until Nov. 11, when Georgia comes to town.

"The meat of our schedule is coming up," Malzahn said.

He hopes that his team will continue to worry about its own business, and pay no attention to what's going on outside of the program.

“Whether it is four weeks ago or whether it is today, our team stays pretty insulated," Malzahn said. "We don’t worry about anyone else’s expectations or what they think outside. It is just about us getting better. We are playing better. I told our team we have not arrived and that I will let them know when we arrive." 

It is a rare 3:30 p.m. kickoff at Tiger Stadium and will change the routine for LSU, which is more accustomed to nighttime kickoffs. A night game in Baton Rouge is unlike anything else in the country, but Orgeron is imploring fans to bring that after dark mindset to the afternoon.

"We're going to need them," Orgeron said. "And there's a lot of things that we don't like that we have to do in life. So hopefully they can get up a little earlier, put a little something in their coffee, to make them come up and let's go."

Orgeron noticed growth from his team in the days leading up to the Florida contest. In previous games, there was finger pointing and hanging teammates out to dry, including members of the coaching staff.

With the season threatening to spiral out of control, LSU banded together.

"It's a testament that we believed in each other last week," Oregeron explained. "Nobody blinked. I think the staff came together more last week than any week. The team came together. The leadership evolved. Through adversity, we became stronger. We felt that going into the game. Our guys say: We are not getting on this plane unless we win the game. That was new. That was a great mindset. The meetings, the intensity, the detail all week, when your back's against the wall, the way our guys responded.

"I need to lead this team better. And although we had success, we have to deal with this thing, and we have to put it to bed coming on 5:00, because we've got a very tough opponent coming. So we have another challenge ahead."

The visitor in this series has lost 15 of the last 17 contests, with LSU winning the last two in Baton Rouge by double digits.

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Confidence Heading Different Directions As Red River Shootout Approaches

This will be the scene in Austin Saturday afternoon as Texas and Oklahoma play the Red River Showdown (Dallas Morning News)

There isn't much on paper that says Texas should be able to hang with Oklahoma in this Saturday's Red River Showdown, but, as a wise man once said, games aren't played on paper.

The Longhorns would seem to have the mental edge, coming in off of a confidence-building overtime victory against Kansas State while the Sooners felt the sting of losing at home to Iowa State -- a team which had beaten Oklahoma only five times previously.

Even if Texas is sitting on cloud nine, the Longhorns players know one thing.

"[Oklahoma] is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder," leading receiver Collin Johnson said.

After a shocking home opening loss to Maryland, Texas has improved -- by leaps and bounds in some areas, incrementally in others. Bottom line, the Longhorns right now look more like the team that lost a three-point game to USC than like the team that appeared clueless against the Terrapins.

The Longhorns scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter of last year's game, but it wasn't enough as Oklahoma won 45-40.

Given the history of the rivalry, 12th-ranked Oklahoma knows that it cannot merely assume that it will win just because it is perceived to be the better team.

"They're a good football team," Sooners coach Lincoln Riley said of Texas.

Oklahoma (4-1, 1-1) enters the game with the nation's top offense, averaging 587 yards per game, and is sixth in scoring (44.6). It all begins with quarterback Baker Mayfield, who leads the nation in passing and has yet to throw an interception through five contests.

A Texas native, Mayfield knows how important this game is to fans of both schools, and to the teams as well. He threw for 390 yards and three scores a year ago in this contest. He knows what needs to be done to get his team focused.

"Unfortunately, it's not something to be proud of, but I have two years of experience being a leader in this time period," Mayfield said. "I've been in this situation before, but that means I know what to do and how to handle it. It's the most disappointing thing, you know this team didn't need that loss (against Iowa State) to put our backs against the wall and go to work. ...

"Like we've handled it the past two years, it's back to business."

Texas (3-2, 2-0) has improved in large part because a young team has matured, has stopped making silly mistakes, and has gained confidence.

The Longhorns know that if you can stop Mayfield, your chances of winning increase.

Texas coach Tom Herman believes that one key to keeping the Heisman candidate relatively in check is to limit the amount of time he spends outside of the pocket. Like Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, Mayfield is an assassin when he rolls out or when pressure forces him to move.

"We're going to do our best to contain and not him get outside of the pocket and keep plays alive," Herman said. "

The teams have alternated victories the past five meetings, with the last three contests all decided by one score. Oklahoma has won six of the last 10 games.

The best advice either coach can give to his team is to play all out, and to expect the unexpected.

"Not a whole lot has changed," said Herman, who was a Texas graduate assistant in 1999 and 2000. "I know it's one of, if not the greatest, rivalries in college football. It would be silly to not recognize the place this rivalry has in college football lore. We recognize that this is a historic game every year, and it's a very heated rivalry."

Texas will likely send Sam Ehlinger out at quarterback, and though he is a true freshman, he is one of the maturing players that appears to be hitting stride.

Ehlinger threw for 380 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Kansas State, and carried the ball 20 times for 107 yards. That dual threat option is what Herman wants his team to have, so he is encouraged by what Ehlinger showed last week.

Johnson had seven catches for 92 yards last week, and presents a big target -- 6-6, 220 -- in the passing game.

Oklahoma has not lost consecutive regular season games since falling to Notre Dame and Texas in 1999, on the way to a 7-5 campaign. Riley believes that his bunch will be ready for Texas, whether or not the Longhorns are ranked, and that they learned a lesson last week.

"Our expectations can't be relative to the team we are playing," Riley said. "That translates into not letting up against lesser teams."

"I am very confident in how this group will respond,"  Riley said.

The Red River Showdown kicks off at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday, from the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. Texas leads the all-time series 61-45-5, and its last two victories over the Sooners were as an unranked team.

Monday, October 9, 2017

Monday Musings -- Oct. 9


Washington coach Chris Petersen wishes his team's games would start earlier (Sporting News)


There is no doubt about it -- Chris Petersen is one of the best college football coaches in all of the land.

He took Boise State to untold heights, winning a couple of BCS bowl games, and has revitalized a Washington program that was spinning its wheels for many of the last 10 years.

Petersen is no-nonsense, preferring to work instead of making small talk or impassioned pleas in the media.

But he had finally had enough of his Huskies being ignored, and couldn't keep quiet any longer.

"I just want to say something to our fans: we apologize for these late games," he said at a recent weekly press conference. "And I'd also like to reiterate it has nothing to do with us or the administration. We want to play at 1 p.m. It hurts us tremendously in terms of national exposure. No one wants to watch our game on the East Coast that late, and we all know it. We haven't had a kickoff before 5 p.m. this season."

It makes sense, to hear him say it.

But it isn't correct.

Think about this -- the only real national program in the Pac-12 is USC. The Trojans move the meter, have history galore, and fans know the brand. That's not the case for Washington, which is why playing games at 1 p.m. -- 4 p.m. Eastern -- would actually be a bad idea.

You see, that window is typically when Alabama and Ohio State and Michigan and Clemson and a host of other national programs are playing. Washington would get lost in the shuffle, and would probably have fewer eyes watching than it does now.

In television, execs talk about potential viewing opportunities, about potential eyes on a program.

What Petersen doesn't get is that Washington, and the rest of the Pac-12 for that matter, can run games basically unopposed, which would mean more potential viewers, not fewer. Less competition means more of an ability to plant your flag, grow your brand, and that's what the Pac -12 is doing.

ESPN -- specifically GameDay staple Kirk Herbstreit -- added to the debate that basically said Petersen should be thanking the network for even televising Huskies games, a completely wrongheaded answer. But not unexpected from the network, which believes it  can do no wrong and that people value its opinion -- even though subscribers are leaving in droves.

Petersen was merely stating something that bothered him. He didn't call out a specific network or entity and say they were the problem. But it must have hit really close to home for ESPN to act like a petulant eight-year old in its response.

While I disagree with Petersen's premise, he is to be applauded for bringing attention to something that seems to bother more than a few Pac-12 coaches. Stanford's David Shaw has mentioned it before, yet it's hard to remember ESPN going out of its way to post catty little graphics on air about Stanford, or have the announcers talk about it in editorial fashion.

Not sure why the Worldwide Leader decided to pick this fight, but it's just another reason why fans are leaving the network like rats deserting a sinking ship.

Petersen took the high road and didn't fire back at ESPN, preferring to "move on to a new topic." It's a fight he wouldn't be able to win, so he's staying out of it.

He comes out looking like the better party in this whole dust-up, and that's just one more reason to admire the guy.

Wolverines Woes
Full disclosure -- I believed the hype about Jim Harbaugh, and thought that he was just the guy to fix Michigan's woes.

I mean, look at the resume -- dyed in the wool Wolverine, big time player, wildly successful at every coaching stop he's made -- including making Stanford relevant, which is no small task. Yes, it would be just a matter of time until he brought in his culture, his players and started racking up the victories.

Um, it hasn't happened yet, and now there is a question about whether it ever will.

Harbaugh is 24-7 in his first 313 games in Ann Arbor -- the same record held by Brady Hoke through that span. While it isn't horrible, it hasn't been good enough to even contend for the East Division crown in the Big Ten, and after a 14-10 loss to Michigan State on Saturday night, there are questions just how the rest of this season will go.

There are big time concerns around the offense, which will now be without Wilton Speight for the rest of the season. That means the offense is in the hands of John O'Korn, who has been a turnover machine, throwing four interceptions in four games. Michigan lacks dynamic playmakers, and the stubbornness of sticking with the physical, pro style offense could be the Wolverines undoing. While Ohio State and Penn State dazzle each week with playmakers and points, Michigan does it with will and determination. Harbaugh would have been perfect in the Woody Hayes era, but right now Michigan doesn't scare anyone offensively.

Now, to be fair, it hasn't been Harbaugh's fault that the quarterback situation has been a mess. He had Jake Ruddock in for a year after he finished at Iowa, and then went with Speight last season, which was fine. He didn't really scare anyone, but wasn't bad.

Michigan needs more than "not bad," though, if it's going to get back to the upper echelon of college football.

The defense is scary good, which means that Michigan should win every game in which it has a talent advantage. But the Wolverines still must face Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State, teams with as much talent and coaching prowess as they have. So far, Harbaugh hasn't shown the ability to adapt, or to beat UM's biggest rivals.

The loss to Sparty dropped Harbaugh's mark to 1-4 against Michigan State and Ohio State in his tenure, and natives are beginning to get a little nervous. The quirky personality, the rah-rah platitudes, the khakis, the sticking it to the Buckeyes whenever possible -- that's all well and good, but it loses its charm if you can't win the big games.

And right now, Michigan is just another program in the Big Ten.

That's something I never thought I'd be saying.

Falling By The Wayside
More teams have been pushed to the sideline after suffering a second loss, and that means they begin experimenting for next season, using younger players more, maybe work on a golf game. Because they aren't going to the College Football Playoff, and if you aren't going there, you really aren't going anywhere.

Louisville, it's been fun -- we really enjoy watching Lamar Jackson and his sometimes inhuman escapability. But that defense? Yeah, might wanna work on it, because it's keeping you from getting where you want to be.

Wake Forest, your ascent to almost relevance has been fun to follow, and your defense is enjoyable to watch. Let us know when you get an offense to match, and we might just pay attention to you again. Or maybe not.

Duke, for all of the offensive genius head coach David Cutcliffe supposedly brings to the table, it's amazing that you average just 4.85 yards per play, near the bottom of the barrel nationally. The defense, like Wake Forest, is cool to watch, and Mike Ramsay is a beast up front. But that defense is going to sue for non-support, and you'll be watching from the sidelines of some minor bowl game.

Kansas State, it was fun while it lasted, but your offense is too one-dimensional to really be a factor in any national race. Bill Snyder is still the coolest old guy around, and we would love to sit down and join him for a beer. But watching your team play? Sorry, we'll pass. It's just too boring.

West Virginia, it's cute how your fans are up in arms about a couple of officials calls going against you -- even though they were the correct ones -- especially the juggling non-interception on the sideline. But digress. Having to rely on a defense that ranks 106th in the country is just too much for any team to overcome, and you found that out against TCU.

Maryland, we're sorry about your quarterback woes because you looked like you were emerging as a team to watch. There isn't much there defensively, but if DJ Durkin keeps recruiting the way he has, you should be good enough to compete in a couple of years.

Oregon, we are pretty confident that Willie Taggart will end up being a good hire, and will have you back in the fast lane pretty soon. It just isn't going to be this year, especially not with the injury issues that have cropped up.

Florida, really? You couldn't muster up enough offense to knock off an LSU team that was circling the drain? It's interesting that, for all of the quarterback acumen Jim McElwain has, you guys haven't had a real live quarterback in his tenure (well, unless you count the first six games with Will Grier). That will need to change if you want to get past Georgia, a team that's stockpiling quarterbacks like they're going out of style.

Sunday, October 8, 2017

Studs And Duds -- Oct. 8


Iowa State's Joel Lanning did a little bit of everything in an upset win over Oklahoma (NewsOK)


We once again have scoured the ends of the college football universe to present the three best, most impactful players/teams, along with three players/teams that didn't do quite as well.

STUDS
Joel Lanning, Iowa State -- Mr Do It All really lived up to his name in Iowa State's stunning 38-31 win third-ranked Oklahoma, playing linebacker and quarterback and being the glue that held things together against a team the Cyclones hadn't beaten since 1990. Lanning went two-of-three passing, for 25 yards, ran the ball nine times for 35 yards and tallied eight tackles, including one sack and one tackle for loss, playing 78 total snaps. According to the Des Moines Register, Lanning is the first ISU player since 1971 to get significant action on both sides of the ball in the same game.
"It was fun," Lanning said. "I can't say enough about my teammates and what they did to help me out."
Lanning started his career in Ames as a quarterback, before moving over to defense.

Khalil Tate, Arizona -- Few would expect a backup quarterback thrown into the game due to injury to fare well, let alone set an FBS record in his first action. But that's exactly what the sophomore did for the Arizona Wildcats, rushing for a QB FBS record 327 yards, and four touchdowns, in the Wildcats 45-42 road upset of Colorado. Tate had touchdown runs of 58, 28, 47 and 75 yards, and threw a 13-yard scoring strike as part of his 142 passing yards. The previous best for QB rushing yards in a game was held by Northern Illinois' Jordan Lynch, who tallied 321 yards in 2013. Tate averaged 23.4 yards per carry on the way to putting up the second most yards in school history -- only Ka'Deem Carey's 366 in 2012 (against Colorado, incidentally) is better. 

Kenny Hill, TCU -- The star-crossed quarterback continued his redemption tour, scoring on a run, a reception and a pass in the Horned Frogs 31-24 victory over West Virginia. Hill, who started his career with a bang at Texas A&M before flaming out and transferring to Fort Worth. Hill's threw a 45-yard touchdown pass and caught a 48-yard scoring toss from receiver KaVontae Turpin, but his final touchdown was the most dramatic. Hill made a defender miss in the backfield, then lunged forward, carrying two more into the end zone to notch the game-winning score with just under three minutes remaining.

DUDS
Tulsa -- A lot was expect of the Golden Hurricane this season, but after a 62-28 blowout loss at Tulane, Tulsa sits at 1-5, with all kinds of questions. It wasn't just that Tulsa lost to the Green Wave, it was the way it happened. Tulsa allowed 653 yards of offense, over 50 percent third down conversions while failing to convert a single time in six tries, turning the ball over twice and being on the wrong end of a 44-16 time of possession disadvantage. Tulane had scoring plays of 23, 62, 59, 43 and 34 yards, and scored on all seven of its first half possessions.

Arkansas -- Bret Bielema may finally be experiencing the "karma" his wife so fondly tweets about every time something bad happens at Wisconsin. The Razorbacks offense was stagnant, at one juncture gaining just 48 yards on 18 plays -- among them an interception return of Austin Allen by South Carolina and a fumble return by Allen that also resulted in a Gamecocks score. South Carolina had three defensive touchdowns in the 48-22 rout, the first time in school history that has happened in 125 years of football. Arkansas came into the game averaging 408 yards, but managed just 330 against a defense ranked 12th in the SEC.

Nebraska defense -- Mike Riley must know that this version of the Huskers defense is far from the Blackshirts of yesteryear. Wisconsin left black and blue marks on the Nebraska stop unit, rushing for 353 yards and averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Wisconsin carried a 37-23 time of possession advantage into an easier than it sounded 38-17 victory in Lincoln. The rushing total was Wisconsin's highest in a road game since 2012, when it ran for 564 yards against Indiana. Nebraska has been a tonic for the Badgers ground game, allowing over 200 rushing yards to both Melvin Gordon and Montee Ball in the Big Ten championship game in 2012. The Huskers also gave up a then-record 408 yards to Gordon in 2014. The real demoralizing thing was that Wisconsin was more physical than Nebraska. For years the Huskers made a habit of wearing people down, on both sides of the ball. But Wisconsin put together a 93-yard scoring drive, running the ball on eight of the 10 plays. 

Sunday Morning Tally -- Oct. 8

TOP GAMES
(23) West Virginia at (8) TCU (-13)
Pick -- TCU 41-32; Score -- TCU 31-24 (SU/ATS W)

Michigan State at (7) Michigan (-10.5)
Pick -- Michigan 23-19; Score -- Michigan State 14-10 (SU L/ATS W)

OTHER GAMES
Tulsa at Tulane (-5)
Pick -- Tulane 45-38; Score -- Tulane 62-28 (SU/ATS W)

Illinois at Iowa (-17)
Pick -- Iowa 34-16; Score -- Iowa 45-16 (SU/ATS W)

(4) Penn State at Northwestern (+14)
Pick -- Penn State 34-24; Score -- Penn State 31-7 (SU W/ATS L)

Wake Forest at (2) Clemson (-21.5)
Pick -- Clemson 36-23; Score -- Clemson 28-14 (SU/ATS W)

Ole Miss at (21) Auburn (-22.5)
Pick -- Auburn 42-17; Score -- Auburn 44-23 (SU W/ATS L)

(5) Georgia at Vanderbilt (+17.5)
Pick -- Georgia 36-17; Score -- Georgia 45-14 (SU/ATS W)

Duke at Virginia (-2
Pick -- Duke 32-28; Score -- Virginia 28-21 (SU/ATS L)

Minnesota at Purdue (-3.5)
Pick -- Minnesota 26-23; Score -- Purdue 31-17 (SU/ATS L)

LSU at (21) Florida (-2)
Pick -- LSU 27-21; Score -- LSU 17-16 (SU/ATS W)

(13) Miami, Fla. at Florida State (+3)
Pick -- Miami 28-20; Score -- Miami 24-20 (SU/ATS W)

Arkansas at South Carolina (+2.5)
Pick -- Arkansas 38-28; Score -- South Carolina 48-22 (SU/ATS L)

SMU at Houston (-6.5)
Pick -- Houston 34-31; Score -- Houston 35-22 (SU W/ATS L)

Maryland at (11) Ohio State (-30)
Pick-- Ohio State 44-24; Score -- Ohio State 62-14 (SU W/ATS L)

Kansas State at Texas (-4.5)
Pick -- Kansas State 27-20; Score -- Texas 40-34 2 OT (SU/ATS L)

(1) Alabama at Texas A&M (+26.5)
Pick -- Alabama 41-17; Score -- Alabama 27-19 (SU/ATS W)

(9) Wisconsin at Nebraska (+11)
Pick -- Wisconsin 35-21; Score -- Wisconsin 38-17 (SU/ATS W)

(11) Washington State at Oregon (+3)
Pick -- Washington State 37-23; Score -- Washington State 33-10 (SU/ATS W)

Stanford at Utah (+4)
Pick -- Utah 26-24; Score -- Stanford 23-20 (SU L/ATS W)

2017 RECORD
SU -- Week 15-5, Overall 88-25; ATS -- Week 12-8, 73-60-1

Saturday, October 7, 2017

By The Numbers -- Oct. 7

TOP GAMES

(23) West Virginia at (8) TCU
TRENDS
WVU is 3-1 ATS in L4 vs. Horned Frogs; Mountaineers just 1-5 ATS in L6 contests and 4-10 ATS L14 road games; WVU just 1-4 ATS L5 as a road underdog; TCU is 3-7 ATS in L10 vs. Big 12 foes; TCU is 1-9 ATS L10 home games, but 19-6 SU L23 in Fort Worth; Frogs 7-2 SU in L9 week 6 contests; TCU 1-7 L8 as home fave
ANALYSIS
Both teams were off last week, which means in theory both should be sharp and ready to go. TCU has the hallmark win of its season over Oklahoma State, while WVU fell to its best competition, Virginia Tech. That was the season-opener, however, and the Mountaineers have improved. Will Grier has been one of the more dynamic quarterbacks in the nation, going deep early and often, and he's helped by running back Justin Crawford, he of the 7.4 yards per carry average. The Mountaineers aren't any great shakes on defense, but aren't afraid to take some chances. TCU isn't quite as explosive offensively, but quarterback Kenny Hill has been steady and patient, which has resulted in the Horned Frogs averaging nearly 48 points per game. Five TCU players have at least nine catches and over 100 yards, so Hill spreads the ball around nicely. TCU is a top 30 unit nationally in total defense, and has enough weapons on that side of the ball to make a stop or two against WVU. That's going to be the difference in the game.  
Line -- TCU -13; PICK -- TCU 41-32

Michigan State at (7) Michigan
TRENDS
Sparty is 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS in L9 vs. Wolverines; team with the most rushing yards has won 42 of the past 47 in the series; MSU is 27-10 ATS in L37 vs. B1G competition and 22-8-1 ATS in L31 road games vs. teams with winning marks; Michigan has a 10-game home winning streak; Michigan is 6-0 ATS in L6 games in week 6
ANALYSIS
Fans of old-school, physical football will love this game, as both teams hang their hat on defese. The Wolverines are first nationally in total defense and Sparty is fifth, and neither does anything really exotic. Michigan will bring the blitz and harass the quarterback from a lot of different spots, but believes its 11 can beat your 11. Sparty has good numbers, but we aren't sure if the competition they have faced is exactly top notch, at least offensively. While defense takes center stage, the game will likely come down to which quarterback plays better. Michigan has John O'Korn, who has been more consistent than starter Wilton Speight, who is out with an injury. O'Korn has a big arm and can do downfield, and isn't as prone to the interception as Speight. MSU's Brian Lewerke is a solid passer, but adds a dual threat as an outstanding runner. He will need to make some plays with his legs if the Spartans are to keep drives alive. There is also a goofy play or turnover that changes momentum in this one, so don't be surprised when that happens. MSU is not afraid of "big brother," winning three of the last four meetings in Ann Arbor.
Line -- Michigan -10.5; Pick -- Michigan 23-19

OTHER GAMES
Tulsa at Tulane -- Tulsa 11-1 ATS L12 vs. Tulane; Hurricane 12-4 ATS away since 2015; Tulane 4-1 ATS L5 contests; Tulane 1-5 ATS L6 meetings with Tulsa
Line -- Tulane -5; Pick -- Tulane 45-38

Illinois at Iowa -- Road team has covered L3 in the series; Illini 8-17 ATS L25 as visitor since 2012; Iowa just 11-22 ATS as home favorite since 2012, but has covered 6 of L8 in that role; Iowa 2-3-1 L6 games; Iowa 4-2 ATS L6 vs. Illini
Line -- Iowa -17; Pick -- Iowa 34-16

(4) Penn State at Northwestern -- Nittany Lions 12-1-1 ATS L14 contests; PSU 3-5 as road favorite dating back to last season; Northwestern 5-1 SU L6 home games; Pat Fitzgerald 3-0 ATS vs. James Franklin, dating back to 2012 game vs. Vanderbilt; Wildcats 14-7 ATS L21 as an underdog
Line -- Penn State -14; Pick -- Penn State 34-24

Wake Forest at (2) Clemson -- Deacons have lost eight in a row to Clemson but are 3-0 ATS L3 in the series; Wake is 6-1-1 ATS in L8 games vs. ACC; Wake 9-2 ATS L11 away; Clemson 6-1 ATS in L7 games; Tigers are 14-0 SU in L14 October contests; Clemson 5-6-1 ATS L12 as home favorite
Line -- Clemson - 21.5; Pick -- Clemson 36-23

Ole Miss at (21) Auburn -- Ole Miss 0-6 ATS L6 and 1-11 L12 since middle of 2016; Rebels 1-6 ATS L7 road games; Auburn 2-8 ATS L10 contests; Auburn 6-3-1 ATS L10 in series; Tigers 7-14-2 ATS L23 games at home
Line -- Auburn -22.5; Pick -- Auburn 42-17

(5) Georgia at Vanderbilt -- Georgia 10-1 SU in L11 vs. Vandy, and 5-1 ATS L6 games; Bulldogs are 5-1 SU in L6 road games; Commodores 5-1 ATS L6 vs. Georgia and 7-3 ATS L10; Vandy 1-10 SU L11 vs. Georgia at home
Line -- Georgia -17.5; Pick -- Georgia 36-17

Duke at Virginia -- Duke 4-1 ATS in L5 games; Duke 7-2-1 ATS L10 in the series; Devils 12-5 ATS L17 on the road; Virginia 6-2 SU L8 when facing Duke at home; Virginia 2-6 ATS vs. spread in L8 games
Line -- Virginia -2; Pick -- Duke 32-28

Minnesota at Purdue -- Gophers have won 4 of L5 vs. Boilermakers; Minnesota 7-1-2 ATS L10 road games; Gophers 5-11-2 ATS L18 vs. Purdue; Boilers 3-8-1 ATS L11 at home; Purdue 4-1 ATS L5 games; Boilers 5-4-1 ATS L10 in series
Line -- Purdue -3.5; Pick -- Minnesota 26-23

LSU at (21) Florida -- Tigers 3-1 SU and ATS in L4 vs. Gators; LSU has won its last 10 October games; LSU 2-5 ATS in L7 road games vs winning competition, but 4-1 ATS L5 road games; Gators have non won B2B vs LSU since 2009; Florida 5-2 ATS in L7 home games in October and 5-1 ATS in conference home games over the past two seasons; Florida 8-12-1 ATS L21 games on the board
Line -- Florida -2; Pick -- LSU 27-21

(13) Miami, Fla. at Florida State -- Miami 0-7 SU in L7 vs FSU and 1-3 ATS in L4 in the series; Miami 1-6 SU in L7 week 6 games; Seminoles 7-0 SU in L7 at home after losing most recent home game; FSU 3-8 ATS L11 at home vs. teams with winning records.
Line -- Miami -3; Pick -- Miami 28-20

Arkansas at South Carolina -- Arkansas 6-1 ATS as visiting underdog; Hawgs 0-4 ATS this season and 1-5 ATS L6 games on the road; Arkansas 9-4 ATS L13 vs. South Carolina; Gamecocks 2-5 ATS L7 at home; Gamecock 2-4 ATS L6 at home vs. Arkansas
Line -- Arkansas -2.5; Pick -- Arkansas 38-28

SMU at Houston -- SMU 5-0 ATS L5 contests and 5-1 ATS as road underdog; Ponies on a 12-4 spread run; SMU 6-1 ATS L7 on the road; Houston 5-0 SU L5 home meetings vs. SMU; Cougars 0-5-1 L6 as home favorite; Houston 3-9 ATS L12 games
Line -- Houston -6.5; Pick -- Houston 34-31

Maryland at (11) Ohio State -- Terps 4-2 ATS L6 contests; Maryland 2-6 ATS L8 on the road; OSU 23-2 SU L25 home games, but zero covers L4 home games; road team has covered three straight in the series; OSU 1-6 ATS L7 home contests
Line -- Ohio State -30; Pick-- Ohio State 44-24

Kansas State at Texas -- Kansas State 11-2 ATS L13 vs. Longhorns; KSU 33-17 as road dog since 2009; Longhorns have three straight covers since opening loss; Texas 9-4 ATS L13 games at home
Line -- Texas -4.5; Pick -- Kansas State 27-20

(1) Alabama at Texas A&M -- Bama has won four in a row vs. Aggies; Alabama is 8-0 ATS L8 on road vs. teams with winning records, and 7-1-1 ATS since 1995 as 20-plus point road fave; Aggies 0-5 ATS in L6 week 6 contests; A&M 1-10 ATS in L11 SEC games, but 9-2 SU in L11 at home; A&M 2-6 ATS L8 as an underdog
Line -- Alabama -26.5; Pick -- Alabama 41-17

(9) Wisconsin at Nebraska -- Badgers have won the last four meetings; Wisconsin is 7-0 ATS in L7 road tilts and 7-1 SU in L8 B1G games; Nebraska is 9-1 SU in L10 home games; Huskers 1-4 ATS in L5 after losing previous game in a series; Nebraska 0-3 ATS at home this season
Line -- Wisconsin -11; Pick -- Wisconsin 35-21

(11) Washington State at Oregon -- Cougars 5-0 ATS L5 vs. Duks and 4-2 L6 at Oregon; Wazzu 15-6-1 ATS L22 on the road Ducks 5-11 vs. spread in Eugene since 2015; Oregon 5-13-1 ATS L19 contests
Line -- Washington State -3; Pick -- Washington State 37-23

Stanford at Utah -- Stanford 9-2 SU in L11 contests; Cardinal have failed to cover L3 road contests; Stanford 8-4 L12 road games; Utah 5-0 SU L5 games; Utes on 8-2 ATS run since middle of 2016 season and 5-2 ATS L7 at home
Line -- Stanford -4; Pick -- Utah 26-24

2017 RECORD
SU -- 73-20 (3-1 Wednesday/Thursday/Friday); ATS -- 61-52-1 (3-1 Wednesday/Thursday/Friday)

Friday, October 6, 2017

Defense Rules In Showdown of Spartans and Wolverines

Chase Winovich (15) and Mike McCray lead a Michigan defense that is one of the best in the country (Michigan Daily)
Ever since Michigan running back Mike Hart uttered the famous phrase about Michigan State being the Wolverines "little brother," things have ratcheted up a notch or two.

The Spartans have won seven of the last nine meetings, including the improbable 27-23 victory in Ann Arbor in 2015, on a botched punt snap that was returned for a touchdown with no time left on the clock. Michigan hasn't lost a game at home to teams not named Ohio State since that contest, and is 15-2 at home in Harbaugh's tenure.

Some Michigan fans will say the Spartans are actually the biggest rival -- though that's borne out of not being able to beat the Buckeyes, the true top rival, in forever -- and Spartans coach Mark Dantonio says it should be treated differently from other games.

“You play in a rivalry game, it's not just another football game. It means more,” Dantonio said. “It means more for your fans. It means more to the players on your team from instate or from that particular rivalry position, however -- whatever rivalry game it is. It just means more.

"(Hart's comment) really hasn't changed it for me. It's really sort of still the same as far as how I've always approached it ever since I was an assistant here. I guess that's a rallying cry for some, but I am who I am and I just react the way I react sometimes. We get ready to play; they have got a good football team. I have a great amount of respect for what they have accomplished down there. Always have had that. My goal when I came here was to make that a rivalry. I think it's a rivalry. We'll leave it at that."

Both squads are fixtures near the top of the national defensive rankings, Michigan ranking first in total defense and Michigan State fifth. The Wolverines are one of just four teams in America allowing opponents less than four yards per play (3.52), and they've been especially stingy against the run, allowing 69.3 yards and just one touchdown.

"We've got to get our tailbacks going, our running game going a little bit better," Dantonio said. "But the running game on is predicated on so many other things on other levels. ... The main focus is we have to find different ways to do things. We did that against Iowa and it worked out."

Running the ball against Michigan is easier said than done, especially since the Wolverines have been able to get opponents behind the chains for most the season. Michigan is third in the nation in opponents third down conversions, allowing just over 19 percent.

"We're playing at a very high level, our linebackers and our defensive line are playing extremely well as is our secondary," UM coach Jim Harbaugh said. "We look at it as an all-11, a team defense approach. That's the style of the defense that (coordinator) Don Brown has implemented."

It may or may not be a good sign that quarterback Brian Lewerke is Michigan State's leading rusher, with 248 yards. On one hand, he has versatility and can make some plays on RPO, but it also means that the Spartans power run game isn't clicking the way it should be. Running back L.J. Scott was a darkhorse for conference honors in the preseason, but has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry with just one touchdown.

Lewerke found a new best friend last week in receiver Felton Davis III, who grabbed nine passes for 114 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Michigan State's win over Iowa last weekend, but the air attack is still largely a work in progress. Michigan is fifth in the country in sacks (18), so Lewerke will have to be at his best to avoid negative plays.

Michigan State QB Brian Lewerke (Detroit Free Press)
"I think he's always been a good quarterback, he's definitely getting better and better. Ascending as he goes," Harbaugh said. "You can see it game by game. Very talented thrower, very good arm talent. He's athletic and is able to and has the instincts of a runner and is able to pick up yards as a ball carrier. He has an ability to make the big play and seems to be in command when he's on the field. All really good things."

Michigan is powered by defensive end Chase Winovich, who has 5.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss. Active linebacker Devin Bush adds 4.5 sacks as well as an ability to drop into coverage, and captain Mike McCray has 26 tackles and 2.5 sacks, and provides immeasurable leadership to a young but talented unit.

The Spartans will be facing John O'Korn at quarterback, and he pushes the ball down the field better than incumbent Wilton Speight, who is out with an injury. O'Korn played well in relief against Purdue, and has a robust 11.4 yards per attempt while completing over 70 percent of his passes. He may be asked to throw a bit more as Michigan State is stout against the run, ranking 16th nationally with 96 yards allowed per game. 

"John's done a fantastic job ever since he got here in every role that he's been in," Harbaugh said. "He's acquitted himself well, including coming off the bench and leading our team to victory against Purdue. I think that speaks volumes."

Ty Isaac has been the Wolverines lead back, averaging 6.3 yards per carry and 89 yards per game. Grant Perry has paced an unspectacular receiving corps, catching 13 passes for 163 yards and a touchdown. 

Michigan State is led by end Joe Bachie, who has 34 tackles and four tackles for loss. Linebacker Chris Frey is one of the most active members of the Spartans D, amassing 20 stops and 2.5 sacks. The Spartans allow just 18 points per game and are keeping opposing passers to a paltry 48.2 completion percentage, so Michigan will have its work cut out.

"If you're going to play well defensively in any game, you have to tackle well," Dantonio said. "You have to play the ball well in the deep part of the field and match them up and protect the quarterback. That's our mindset as we go into any football game, but I thought we played extremely well up front and we won at the line of scrimmage (against Iowa), which you have to be able to do."

The teams will kick off at 7:30 p.m. Saturday night, which will add a little bit of juice to the proceedings -- though that likely won't be needed, as both teams have plenty on the line.

“I understand that there’s night games and I’ve said this before: I think as a player there’s an exciting part of that, especially the way the pants, the silks, there’s a shine there kind of like…yeah, night games are cool," Harbaugh said. "Yeah, there’s a part of me that’s excited about that. I think there’s a part that excited the players as well, playing under the lights.”

After winning just four games last year, Michigan State is trying to get back to the top of the Big Ten, which is where it was in 2015. Beating Michigan in Ann Arbor will go a long way toward reaching that goal, and the fact that it's a rivalry contest would make it even sweeter. Some coaches will downplay that aspect, but not Dantonio.

"I think that's all coach talk, personally," he said. "I think coaches know what games are important. They understand. They can stand up here and say, `well, this is just another football game,' but it's not.
We play in a Championship Game; it's not just another football game. You play in a rivalry game; it's not just another football game. It means more. It means more for your fans, it means more to the players on your team from instate or from that particular rivalry position, whatever rivalry game it is. It just means more. And I think it's great for college football. I think it's what makes college football in a lot of ways. I think people anticipate these games, look towards the schedule and probably look at the season, and as they are getting their season tickets and say, `Oh, we have that particular game,' whatever it is, wherever you're at, at home this particular time.

"So I think that's pretty traditional across this country, and that's how we've approached it here. Doesn't mean that anybody else has to approach anything in this type of way but that's how we've approached it here."