Sunday, September 17, 2017

Studs And Duds





 On paper, week three of the college football didn't look like much -- a few intriguing games, a couple of marquee matchups, but nothing as tasty as the previous week gave us.

 As usual, college football proved us wrong, with compelling moments from beginning to end, and a few -- good and bad -- stood out over others.

 This is studs and duds for the weekend that was:

STUDS
MASON RUDOLPH -- Not everyone was on board the Oklahoma State train at the beginning of the season, but Rudolph is beginning to convert the non-believers with his play. He was stellar on the road against Pittsburgh, rolling up 497 passing yards and throwing five touchdowns, four of which were 40 yards or longer. Rudolph is deadly accurate, and isn't afraid to take chances downfield, as his 15.5 YPA against the Panthers shows. He is second in the nation in QBR at 92.7, and will have a chance to really prove that he belongs in the same breath as Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield with a showdown against unbeaten TCU next weekend.

VANDERBILT DEFENSE -- The Commodores have teased fans before, showing promise before slogging their way to a .500 season. Well, folks, take notice of this Vandy team, because it has a legitimate defense. Linebacker Emmanuel Smith and safety LaDarius Wiley are both playing like big time stars, collecting 12 and 11 tackles, respectively, in Vandy's 14-7 old school win over Kansas State. The Wildcats came in averaging over 500 yards on offense but were limited to just 277, and converted just 4-of-16 third downs after success on 50 percent in the first two games. Vanderbilt played hard and harassed KSU quarterback Jesse Ertz into a 10-of-28 night, picking him off twice. Vandy gets Alabama next week in Nashville, and if it plays D the way it did against Kansas State, it has a shot at the upset.

CHASE McGRATH -- It's not often that we'll give props to a kicker, but McGrath gets in based on his pressure-filled game-winning field goal in the second overtime against Texas, giving USC a 27-24 victory. McGrath hit a 31-yarder to tie the game at the end of regulation, then one-upped himself in the second extra stanza. Texas fumbled on its possession in the second OT, and the Trojans simply needed a field goal to win the game. A one-yard Ronald Jones run and a pair of Darnold incompletions meant that McGrath wasn't getting off easy, but he nailed the kick, keeping USC's hopes alive for a big season. 

DUDS
OREGON STATE DEFENSE -- The Beavers have been absolutely abysmal at stopping people, allowing a nation's worst 25 touchdowns in four contests. Washington State's Luke Falk threw for six in a 52-23 Cougars win, and Oregon State has allowed 158 points in its three losses. Its only win was a 35-32 nailbiter against FCS Portland State, and with Washington and USC next on the schedule, things might only get worse for Gary Anderson's squad.

MISSOURI -- Head coach Barry Odom fired defensive coordinator DeMontie Cross after the Tigers 31-13 home loss to South Carolina, but said it was due to "philosophical differences" and not on the field play. Odom has assumed the role of defensive coordinator, and may want to fire himself after Missouri looked lifeless at home in a 35-3 loss to Purdue. The Boilermakers rolled up 477 yards of offense and held the football for over 43 minutes. While time of possession is often a meaningless stat, it wasn't in this case. Purdue converted 8-of-17 third downs and put together touchdown drives of 11 and 13 plays, as well as a 12-play drive that ended in a missed field goal. Mizzou is simply bad on defense right now, which means Auburn could be licking its chops at the prospect of coming into Columbia next weekend. 

NEBRASKA -- The Huskers have been on a roller coaster all season, barely escaping the opener against Arkansas State (43-36, allowing 497 yards) and falling to Oregon (42-35, 566 yards). Well, the drop finally came, in the form of a 21-17 loss AT HOME to Northern Illinois, the first non-Power 5 team to win in Lincoln since 2004 (Southern Mississippi). The Huskies returned two touchdowns for scores, and Nebraska quarterback Tanner Lee has thrown seven interceptions, most in the nation. The upshot is that Nebraska AD Shawn Eichorst announced an extension for coach Mike Riley earlier in the week, then said after the loss to NIU, "I'm angry, I'm frustrated, I'm disappointed. I want to continue to show support, but I also understand there is lot of frustration out there when you don't win games like today." This is the second time in three seasons under Riley that Nebraska has lost two of its first three games. 

Sunday Morning Tally

 Good Sunday morning, peeps!

 The first couple of weeks of the season are often hit or miss as the numbers adjust to the teams, but this is the time where it all starts to align. And this weekend was evidence of that, as we killed it.

TOP GAMES
(23) Tennessee at (24) Florida (-4.5)
Pick -- Florida 24, Tennessee 17; Score -- Florida 26-20 (SU/ATS W)

(3) Clemson at (14) Louisville (+3) 
Pick -- Clemson 31, Louisville 23; Score - Clemson 47-21 (SU/ATS W)

Texas at (6) USC (-15)   
Pick -- USC 38, Texas 21; Score -- USC 27-24 2 OT (SU W/ATS L)

OTHER GAMES
(25) UCLA at Memphis (+3)
Pick -- Memphis 34, UCLA 33; Score -- Memphis 48-45 (SU/ATS W)

Air Force at (7) Michigan (-23)
Michigan 38, Air Force 17; Score -- Michigan 29-13 (SU/ATS W)

(9) Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh (+11.5)
Pick -- Oklahoma State 42, Pittsburgh 23; Score -- Oklahoma State 59-21 (SU/ATS W)

Notre Dame at Boston College  (+13)

Pick -- Notre Dame 30, Boston College 21; Score -- Notre Dame 49-20 (SU W/ATS L)

(10) Wisconsin at Brigham Young (+16.5)
Pick -- Wisconsin 36, Brigham Young 1; Score -- Wisconsin 40-6 (SU/ATS W)

SMU at (20) TCU (-20)
Pick -- TCU 38, SMU 24; Score -- TCU-56-36 (SU W/ATS P)

Army at (8) Ohio State (-32)
Pick -- Ohio State 42, Army 17; Score -- Ohio State 38-7 (SU/ATS W)

Purdue at Missouri(-7)
Pick -- Purdue 27, Missouri 24; Score -- Purdue 35-3 (SU/ATS W)

Oregon State at  (21) Washington State (-21)
Pick -- Washington State 42, Oregon State 26; Score -- Washington State 52-23 (SU W/ATS L)

Oregon at Wyoming (+15)
Pick -- Oregon 38, Wyoming 34; Score -- Oregon 49-13 (SU W/ATS L)

(12) LSU at Mississippi State (+7.5)
Pick -- Mississippi State 27, LSU 24; Score -- Mississippi State 37-7 (SU/ATS W)

Colorado State at (1) Alabama (-28.5)
Pick -- Alabama 41, Colorado State 16; Score -- Alabama 41-23 (SU/ATS W)

Kentucky at South Carolina (-5.5)
Pick -- Kentucky 31, South Carolina 28; Score -- Kentucky 23-13 (SU/ATS W)

(18) Kansas State at Vanderbilt (+4)
Pick -- Kansas State 28, Vanderbilt 2; Score -- Vanderbilt 14-7 (SU L/ATS W)

(19) Stanford at San Diego State (+9)
Pick -- Stanford 35, San Diego State 2; Score -- San Diego State 20-17 (SU/ATS L)

Ole Miss at California (+3.5)
Pick -- Cal 38, Ole Miss 33; Score -- Cal 27-16 (SU/ATS W)

2017 RECORD
SU -- Week 17-2, Overall 49-10; ATS -- Week 13-5-1, Overall 43-34-2

Saturday, September 16, 2017

By The Numbers


 We are back to once again take a look inside the numbers in this weekend of college football, and to make you guys some bank at the same time. There aren't nearly as many marquee matchups as we had last weekend, but we have found a few that are worth the time, so without any further ado:

TOP GAMES
(23) Tennessee at (24) Florida
TRENDS
Vols just 2-5 ATS L7 in this series, and 5-9-1 ATS last 14 vs. the line; Vols have covered last two at The Swamp; Florida 5-1 ATS as SEC host under McElwain, and Gators are 7-3 ATS L3Y coming off a SU loss.
ANALYSIS
One of the best rivalries in the SEC gets reignited as the Vols head to Gainesville, where they have lost the last two, and four of the last five contests vs. the Gators. There was a breakthrough last year, however, and Tennessee wants to use that as momentum against a Florida team that is still struggling with player suspensions and offensive ineptitude. Reports say Tennessee will be without leading rusher John Kelly (knee), which makes penetrating the stout Florida defense a little tougher. The Vols look like the better team on paper, but the Gators haven't played since Sept. 2 and would love nothing more than to have some actual football to take their minds off of recent tragedies in the Sunshine State. Look for a low-scoring, hard-hitting game, with turnovers deciding the outcome.
Line -- Florida -4.5; Pick -- Florida 24, Tennessee 17

(3) Clemson at (14) Louisville
TRENDS
Clemson 13-7 ATS L20 vs. the line, but just 5-9 ATS away since 2014; Tigers 19-16-1 ATS off SU victory; Louisville just 3-8 ATS L11 lined games; Cards 6-5 as a dog since 2014, and 2-0 as home dog in that span; Louisville 0-3 in L3 games as an underdog.
ANALYSIS
The last three games in the series have been decided by 15 points, all Clemson victories, and Louisville certainly has the most explosive weapon on the field in QB Lamar Jackson. He will have to be at his best, though, against a Tigers D that held Auburn to 68 total yards and netted 11 sacks. Clemson managed the game offensively against Auburn, but don't be surprised if they take some shots against a Cards secondary that's missing Jaire Alexander. Deon Cain could come up big in this one. Louisville certainly has a shot, considering it has a seven game home ACC winning streak. But Clemson has been through this big game stuff before, and Dabo Swinney won't let his team get rattled by the surroundings. 
Line -- Louisville +3; Pick -- Clemson 31, Louisville 23

Texas at (6) USC
TRENDS
Longhorns just 2-8 L10 ATS as a visitor, though Herman went 5-0 as underdog at Houston; USC is 8-3 ATS at the Coliseum under Clay Helton, and 13-6 ATS as a home favorite since 2014.
ANALYSIS
The talk all week in Los Angeles has been about the 2006 Rose Bowl, Vince Young and the end of the Trojans dynasty. You have to believe USC is sick of that, and just wants to play football. Texas looked better last week in a big win over San Jose State, but taking on USC at this juncture of the season seems like a tall order for Tom Herman's squad. USC was much better again the run last week vs. Stanford, and was money on third downs thanks to the arm of QB Sam Darnold. You have to believe Herman will dig into his bag of tricks in this one as the Longhorns are at a talent disadvantage. 
Line -- USC -15; Pick -- USC 38, Texas 21

OTHER GAMES
(25) UCLA at Memphis -- UCLA just 3-11 ATS L14 vs. non-Pac 12 squads, and just 5-10 ATS in L15 lined games; Memphis 3-8 vs. spread L11 since early 2016, but has won last two outright as a dog vs ranked teams (Ole Miss, Houston).
Line -- Memphis +3; Pick -- Memphis 34, UCLA 33

Air Force at (7) Michigan -- Since 2014, Air Force is 10-4 ATS with eight outright wins as an underdog;  As a DD underdog during this span, the Falcons are 3-0 ATS with two outright wins. Michigan is just 11-10 ATS as a home fave L3Y, and 9-10 as DD fave since 2015;
Line -- Michigan -23; Pick -- Michigan 38, Air Force 17

(9) Oklahoma State at Pittsburgh -- Okie State is 8-8-1 ATS as a favorite since 2015, and 1-2-2 as a road fave in that span; Pittsburgh is 3-11 ATS in home games since Pat Narduzzi became head coach in 2015.
Line -- Pittsburgh +11.5; Pick -- Oklahoma State 42, Pittsburgh 23

Notre Dame at Boston College -- Notre Dame just 2-6 since 2013 as a visiting favorite; since 1996 Irish just 5-15 in first true road game of the season; Eagles 6-1 ATS vs. ND since 2004; BC 0-5 ATS as a home dog past two seasons but 7-7-1 as a dog since 2015.
Line -- Boston College +13; Pick -- Notre Dame 30, Boston College 21

(10) Wisconsin at Brigham Young -- Badgers 13-4-1 ATS since late 2015 and 9-1 ATS L10 away from Camp Randall; BYU 4-1 ATS in L5 as a DD underdog, and 4-0-1 as a dog last season; Cougars just 2-5-1 ATS at home in 2016
Line -- BYU +16.5; Pick -- Wisconsin 36, Brigham Young 15

SMU at (20) TCU -- Road team has covered last three in this series; SMU was 4-1 as a road underdog last season and 9-7 in that role L3Y; TCU went 0-7 ATS as a host in 2016 but had been 10-2 in that capacity the previous two seasons; TCU 16-11 ATS off a SU victory since 2014
Line -- TCU -20; Pick -- TCU 38, SMU 24 

Army at (8) Ohio State -- Army 8-2-2 ATS L12 as a road dog, 4-2-1 L7 as a DD underdog; Buckeyes are just 3-8 ATS in L11 contests, including 1-4 ATS at home in this span; OSU 5-10 ATS since 2015 as DD home favorite.
Line -- Ohio State -32; Pick -- Ohio State 42, Army 17

Purdue at Missouri -- Jeff Brohm has gone 14-5-1 since late 2015, and Purdue is 14-3 L17 away from home; Missouri is just 9-17 ATS since 2015 and 3-8-1 as a fave since 2015, with four outright losses.
Line -- Missouri -7; Pick -- Purdue 27, Missouri 24

Oregon State at  (21) Washington State -- Beavers covered 7 of last 8 in 2016 but have dropped all three contests ATS this season; Oregon State is just 10-17 L3Y ATS in conference contests; Wazzu is 7-6 as a home fave since 2014 and 15-12 ATS vs. league foes; WSU just 2-8 L10 ATS
Line -- Washington State -21; Pick -- Washington State 42, Oregon State 26

Oregon at Wyoming -- Since Marcus Mariota left for the NFL after 2014, Oregon is 1-9 ATS as a double digit favorite; Oregon 5-12 L17 as favorite, though Willie Taggart teams are 12-5-1 as chalk since 2015; Wyoming is 7-2 ATS as underdog in games started by QB Josh Allen, winning five outright; Wyoming 5-0 ATS last year as home dog.
Line -- Wyoming +15; Pick -- Oregon 38, Wyoming 34

(12) LSU at Mississippi State -- Tigers 0-3 ATS L3 vs Bulldogs, but LSU is 4-0 ATS away from home under Ed Orgeron; Mississippi 10-5 ATS as a dog since 2014 and 6-2 ATS L8 as dog of at least seven points, with three outright victories
Line -- Mississippi State +7.5; Pick -- Mississippi State 27, LSU 24

Colorado State at (1) Alabama -- Rams were 5-0 LY as a visiting dog, with two outright wins, and are 7-1 L8 as a visitor; Bama just 4-14 ATS as a host vs. non-SEC foes, many as a double digit fave.
Line -- Alabama -28.5; Pick -- Alabama 41, Colorado State 16

Kentucky at South Carolina -- UK has won the last games and covered last four in series, and was 4-1 as a road dog last season; South Carolina just 5-9 ATS in Columbia since 2014 and 0-4-1 ATS in this series L5.
Line -- South Carolina -5.5; Pick -- Kentucky 31, South Carolina 28

(18) Kansas State at Vanderbilt -- Wildcats are 5-0-1 ATS since start of 2016 vs. non-conference foes, and 20-9-1 ATS as a visitor since 2011; Vandy is 6-1 ATS as home dog last two seasons and 10-5 L15 ATS in Nashville.
Line -- Vanderbilt +4; Pick -- Kansas State 28, Vanderbilt 27

(19) Stanford at San Diego State -- Stanford 17-9 ATS as visiting favorite since 2011, 25-14 ATS away from home in that span; Aztecs just 10-10 ATS at home since 2014, but have won last five outright as an underdog.
Line -- San Diego State +9; Pick -- Stanford 35, San Diego State 24

Ole Miss at California -- Ole Miss just 1-8 ATS since middle of 2016 campaign and are just 3-6 ATS as away favorite since 2014; Cal is 4-0 with three outright wins as underdog vs. non-league since 2014, though Bears are just 5-9 as a dog since 2015.
Line -- Cal +3.5; Pick -- Cal 38, Ole Miss 33

2017 RECORD
SU -- 32-8; ATS -- 31-29-1

Friday, September 15, 2017

Clemson D Has Huge Challenge Ahead In Cards' Jackson

 In one corner, you have the defending national champion, and in the other you have the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.

 The teams played a classic last year, easily one of the top three regular season games of 2016, and should stage another memorable contest this Saturday as third-ranked Clemson heads to No. 14 Louisville to take on Lamar Jackson and company.

 The Tigers won 42-36 last year in a contest that had a ton of second half fireworks, including a 100-yard kickoff return from Louisville and two final possessions that ended with a missed field and a gain of 11 yards on fourth-and-12 with 33 seconds remaining. The teams combined for over 1,000 yards of offense, but it was Clemson that was able to exhale once the clock hit zero.

 "Hopefully we can do a little better job taking care of the ball and maximizing our opportunities when they present themselves," Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said, recalling that both Clemson turnovers resulted in Louisville touchdown drives.
Lamar Jackson puts pressure on every defense that faces him (Boston Globe)

 Clemson put the clamps on Auburn last week, netting 11 sacks and holding the visiting Tigers to just 68 total net yards, including 38 rushing yards on 42 attempts. While Auburn doesn't have anyone as dynamic as Jackson, Clemson was excellent at the line of scrimmage and had linebackers who filled holes on the rare occasions when Auburn wasn't stopped in its own backfield.

 That kind of attention to detail will be huge against Jackson, the nation's most dynamic runner. He has gotten stronger this year, meaning he can pull away from sure tackles, and still has the wheels to outrun anyone to the end zone.

 To say that he's made Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables just a tad nervous would be quite the understatement.

 "Some of it is fun, and then the more you see of it, the more sick you get because of all the plays he makes, even when it's not there," Venables said.

 Louisville (2-0) has added some wrinkles to its offense, which last year was almost exclusively zone read and spread. There are multiple formations, even some pro style looks, and Jackson has shown great touch on his deep ball, passes he wasn't consistently completing in 2016.

 "He's got a great arm, tremendous, natural wiry stuff," Venables said. "You've got a free corner on a blitz (vs. UNC) and he throws a 75-yard touchdown when the corner just falls off of him. Those are the kinds of things a special player can do. It's one thing to take what's there. He can make something out of nothing all day."

 Don't be surprised if Clemson (2-0) rushes with four, occasionally stunting up front, and spying Jackson with a linebacker, either Dorian O'Donnell or Kendall Joseph. That may or may not be enough, but it should at least make Jackson work for his yardage.

 "Lamar Jackson is an unbelievable player and fun to watch," Swinney said. "He's not fun to prepare for and not fun to play against. I'd much prefer to watch him, I enjoy that a lot better, but we've got our hands full with this guy."

 Jackson leads the nation in total offense, averaging 505 yards per game. Clemson has allowed just five plays over 10 yards, and only one over 20, so it's a matchup of strength vs. strength. While Jackson merits that kind of attention, running back Malik Williams is coming off a career-high 149 yard rushing day against North Carolina.

 Clemson has weapons of its own, as running backs Tavien Feaster, C.J. Fuller and Travis Etienne all average over five yards per carry and have four touchdowns between them. They could add some pop to the Tigers ground attack.

 "Clemson present a great challenge," Cardinals coach Bobby Petrino said. "On offense we have to be able to mix the run and pass effectively. Defensively, we need to find a way to shut down their rushing attack. They also have three receivers that we know very well, and their quarterback has looked extremely good so far."
Kelly Bryant has big shoes to fill for Clemson (The State)

 That quarterback, Kelly Bryant, is anonymous compared to Jackson, but has played well in his own right, completing 68.6 percent of his passes and rushing for 136 yards and three touchdowns. He may not be as electric running the ball as Jackson is, but he has been effective, and has shown Deshaun Watson qualities at times.

 Louisville will likely be without standout corner Jaire Alexander (knee), which means Bryant may look to pass a little bit more this week. But Louisville's defense will keep Clemson honest.

 "I'm sure they will have a few wrinkles that maybe we have not seen," Swinney said. "It's still early in the season, so I doubt that they have used their whole arsenal yet. They have a good veteran group back and a lot of guys that are experienced. We will be ready for whatever they present."

 Each of the last three games have been nailbiters, all Clemson victories, by a total of 15 points, and Petrino feels that being so close will help his veteran bunch.

 "I am hoping that our experience last year with Florida State (a 63-20 win) and going on the road at Clemson will help us," Petrino said. "I thought that, at Clemson, when we started the game we had some guys that were too hyped up, so hopefully that won't be a problem this time.

 "The crowd can make all the difference in the world in a game like this. There's a reason why we have a lot of sacks at home on third down, and that goes all the way back to the Elvis (Dumervil) days. There's no question our crowd has helped us before, and we just have to take it up another notch this week."

 Louisville is 6-1 in home openers under Petrino, but 0-3 all-time against defending national champions.

 Clemson, which has won its last 10 road games, had just 264 yards and turned the ball over twice against Auburn, yet still managed to put together drives of 10 plays (missed field goal), 13 plays (TD) and 10 plays (TD). If Clemson has the ball, Jackson won't be on the field, which means he cannot do any damage.

 And whether shootout or defensive slugfest, Swinney just wants to end the night on the right side of the decision.

 "We just want to win," he said. "We are not trying to win any point show, we are not trying to win the stat wars. We just want to win the game. I'll take 3-2 right now ... 3-2, shake the hand and come on back to the house and let y'all (media) talk about how bad the offense is, and we'll be 3-0 and moving on to the next one."

Thursday, September 14, 2017

Gators Ready For Vols After Dealing With Irma

 There has been plenty of history, bad blood and big plays in the rivalry between Tennessee and Florida.

 The SEC East rivals square off at Florida Field this Saturday, both with something to prove after residing in the lower levels of the national rankings rather than their customary spots in or near the top 10.

 But football isn't the first, or only thing, on the Gators' minds. The aftermath of Hurricane Irma, which affected millions of Floridians, brought real life right into Florida's backyard. There was a question about whether this game would be played, but the school announced recently that it would go on as scheduled.
Florida coach Jim McElwain believes his team is ready for Tennessee (247Sports)

 "Our guys are going to go play hard," Florida coach Jim McElwain said. "We are going to put a good thing together to give them an opportunity to play fast and release some of their pent-up frustrations. And as we come out in The Swamp, I think our thoughts go a lot farther than the selfish reasons you play a game, but more so the big-picture reasons you play a game, and hopefully give some relief to some people whose lives have been changed forever."

 The Vols come into the game 2-0 after an easy win over Indiana State, while the Gators haven't played since Labor Day weekend, when they suffered a 33-17 loss to Michigan that wasn't nearly as close as the score indicates. Their scheduled home game against Northern Colorado last weekend was cancelled.

 Tennessee typically has the burden of expectation on its shoulders, but after a few seasons of underachieving, the Vols are flying a bit under the radar at No. 23. Not much is known about the Vols, who have new starters at many offensive skill positions, including quarterback Quentin Dormady, and a defense that was far too generous at times last year, allowing an FBS high six carries of 60-plus yards in 2016.

 That defense and youth means that Vols coach Butch Jones doesn't exactly know what he might see on Saturday.

 "We have to start fast on the road," Jones said. "Over half our football team has never been to The Swamp. It takes a mature football team to go down there."

 A good way to get Dormady comfortable would be to have him hand off to John Kelly, who has impressed with a 5.62 yards per carry average and four touchdowns through four games. Kelly also leads the team in receptions, with 10, and will be the workhorse against a very good Florida defense. Wideout Marquez Calloway has been a big play threat, catching five passes for 152 yards and three scores. 

Butch Jones has his Vols at 2-0 heading into Gainesville (RockyTopInsider)
 If Dormady can navigate the hostile atmosphere, he could have a big day. Through two games, the junior has shown that the moment isn't too large, completing 60 percent of his passes for 415 yards and four touchdowns, with just one interception. Florida has speed and athleticism and will test the Vols offensive line, so Dormady will have to play with precision.

 "I want to see poise," Jones said. "The great quarterbacks have the ability to lead their teams on game-winning drives on the road."

 Florida looked woefully overmatched against the Wolverines, scoring both of its touchdowns on interception returns. The quarterback position, supposedly an area of expertise for coach Jim McElwain over the year, continues to be dismal, and if the Gators can't get it done this week against Tennessee, it could be the beginning of a real downward spiral in Gainesville.

 Feleipe Franks and Malik Zaire will both play this week, as they did in the opener, and McElwain will go "by feel" as the game progresses. Neither was terribly impressive against Michigan, though Franks was a bit more willing to take some chances downfield.

 The Gators will still be without nearly a dozen players suspended for the opener for misusing school-issued funds, including star receiver Antonio Callaway and leading rusher Jordan Scarlett. It could be another tough week offensively, though Tennessee's defense hasn't been great through two games, netting just one sack on 153 plays.

 Florida will rely on defense, led by linebacker David Reese (11 tackles) and defensive end Jordan Sherit (five tackles, two sacks), play field position and hope that its thus-far dormant offense (3.62 yards per play) can break through.

 "Make no mistake about it, this is a line of scrimmage league," Jones said. "There is a lot that goes into impacting the quarterback. We haven't played two schemes that allows us to get pressure."

 The Vols ended an 11-game losing streak in the series last year, beating the Gators 38-28 at home. Tennessee hasn't won at Florida Field since 2003, but was painfully close in 2015, falling 28-27 after Callaway took a curl route 63 yards for the game-winning score with 1:26 left to play.

 This one may not have the drama of "Faxgate," or "The Catch?" or Steve Spurrier telling a booster club "you can't spell Citrus without UT," but there isn't a lot of extra fuel needed in this contest.

 A loss for Florida knocks them out of not only the College Football Playoff picture, but quite likely the SEC East race, which it has won three of the last five years, including the previous two seasons.

 "One of the great lessons you learn in athletics, and especially in the game of football, is sometimes you get knocked down," McElwain said. "The measure of a true man is how he gets back up and that's what we're going to do"

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

USC Wants To Avoid Repeat Of Last Meeting With Texas

 For Texas, it still remains as one of the shining moments in the school's history.

 For fourth-ranked USC, it's more of a bad nightmare -- Vince Young striding into the south end zone of the Rose Bowl, giving Texas a national championship that the Trojans felt was theirs -- a third straight -- and ending a potential dynasty.

 The 2006 Rose Bowl on a loop, it haunts USC fans, so you can bet they are beyond thrilled to be hosting the Longhorns this Saturday night in the Los Angeles Coliseum.
Freshman Stephen Carr is a vital cog in USC's ground game (Los Angeles Times)

 USC is coming off of a dominant 42-24 victory over Stanford, a nemesis that has derailed many recent seasons before they even began. The Trojans out-Stanforded Stanford, rushing for 307 yards -- no one does that to the Cardinal. It put an end to the finesse talk that follows USC around, and branded the Trojans as a legitimate player in the College Football Playoff chase.

 A week after playing an average opener, USC quarterback Sam Darnold was brilliant against Stanford, completing 21-of-26 passes for 316 yards and four touchdowns.

 "You could tell he had his jaw set right," Trojans coach Clay Helton said. "He was coming in there to win that game, and he had a mental focus that was truly special."

 That mental focus turns to Texas, which was waylaid at home in week one by Maryland, but rebounded with a stellar performance last weekend against San Jose State, rushing for 406 yards in a 56-0 romp over San Jose State.

 Helton knows that the Longhorns will come in with nothing to lose and everything to prove, and first-year coach Tom Herman branded himself as something of a giant killer in his time at Houston, beating Oklahoma and Louisville last season when both teams were ranked.

 "I think Tom is one of the most brilliant offensive minds in college football," Helton said. "He's done it at Ohio State (where he was offensive coordinator for the Buckeyes 2014 national champions), he's done it at Houston, and he's going to do it at Texas."

 If Herman is going to do it this week, he will need to find a tonic that stops both Darnold and the USC ground attack. Freshman Stephen Carr averaged 10.8 yards per carry on the way to 119 yards and Ronald Jones II added 116 yards and a pair of touchdowns, giving him five in just two games.

 USC's defense, which took some heat after allowing Western Michigan to rush for 263 yards, beat back the Stanford ground game, limiting the Cardinal to 170 yards, a 75-yard cutback touchdown run by Bryce Love being the only real home run of the evening.

 Texas has a question at quarterback, where incumbent Shane Buechele missed last week's game with an injury. Freshman Sam Ehlinger played well in his first collegiate start, throwing for 222 yards and a touchdown and rushing for 48 yards on seven carries. The Longhorns like to put pressure on a defense with a dual threat quarterback, and both Buechele and Ehlinger can run the read option when called upon.

 Whoever takes the snaps will need to deal with a raucous environment, as the Coliseum is a sellout.

 "The challenge is sticking to your routine," Herman said. "We talk to our players about every great player. One thing that's commonplace, whether it's Michael Jordan or Peyton Manning or Jerome Bettis, every great player has a routine, and they do the same thing every day. They do the same thing every Friday of game week. They do the same thing every Saturday morning of the game. If you can make just getting on the plane the only deviation in that routine, then you've succeeded."

 The Texas defense will need to be stout on money downs against USC, which leads the nation in third down conversion percentage at 73.7.

 "I think on defense we took some major, major strides from a recklessness standpoint," Herman said. "I hate to use that word in football because maybe people might interpret it as you're not playing disciplined. I mean, figuratively, lighting your hair on fire and just going. That's what we have to do this weekend."
Texas battering ram Chris Warren merits attention (Inside Texas)

 USC will need to be wary not just of the quarterback run, but of running back Chris Warren, who rambled for 166 yards and two scores against San Jose State.

 "You could see they brought a physical mentality to the game," Helton said. "We have to be strong enough to stop their rushing attack, or else it's going to a long night."

 Herman liked being the underdog at Houston, and he will make sure his team knows on Saturday that is viewed as the weakling in this fight.

 "We are an underdog," he said. "I mean this is -- they've been doing this a while at Southern Cal, we haven't. So yeah, I mean, I would say they're definitely the favorite."

 A program as proud as Texas' doesn't need gimmicks to get the job done, but even the slightest edge, mentally or physically, will keep the Longhorns focused and in the ballgame.

 So it couldn't hurt to dredge up a couple of old memories, especially if they will make the Trojans sweat a little bit.

 "Vince (Young) comes around, so I'm sure he'll be around this week," Herman said. "We welcome that. We've got one on our staff in Michael Huff that is -- you know, knows very intimately about that game in '05. So everybody's welcome. Every former player is always welcome. So will there be a few more this week than most? Maybe. Because those guys like to relive those things, you know."

 The Trojans lead the series 4-1, but oh, that one.

 "I do remember watching Vince and just being awestruck and remembering how many great players were on that field," Herman said. "Then obviously, that fourth down call down there on whatever it was, the seven-yard line or four-yard line, was one that I remember watching very closely.

 "I like the fact that we play these games. I think it's great that two of the premier brands in college football history are going to face off."

Sunday, September 10, 2017

Studs And Duds


 Each Sunday during the college football, we select three players/teams/plays that made us stand up and take notice -- studs -- and three that made us hang our heads in shame -- duds.

 There were no shortage of candidates for the honors this week, so let's get right to it.

STUDS
CLEMSON DEFENSE -- Auburn was supposed to be the real test, a Gus Malzahn-led unit that finally had a quarterback in place. That's the kind of team that gave Clemson problems last season, and with Dabo Swinney's team still trying to find itself offensively some early Auburn momentum might be enough to win the game. Nope. After a 13-play opening drive that resulted in an Auburn field goal, Clemson locked things down the rest of the way. How good was the defense? Auburn had 42 rushes for 38 yards, and QB Jarrett Stidham was sacked 11 times, four times by junior Austin Bryant and twice by All-America DT Christian Wilkins. Auburn netted just 117 yards and averaged 3.3 yards per attempt passing. It's safe to say that Clemson's defense is every bit as good as the group that won last year's national title.

BAKER MAYFIELD -- The Oklahoma quarterback talked about how he and his team felt disrespected last year after Ohio State came in to Norman and left with a 42-24 blowout. The Buckeyes sang the alma mater -- hardly inflammatory, it's done after every game -- but Mayfield stuck around to watch, storing that . memory away for fuel. Man, did it work. Mayfield routinely kept plays alive, delivered the football on time and kept his foot on the gas pedal in leading the Sooners to a 12th straight road win, their longest streak since the glory days of the 1970s. Mayfield finished the night with 386 yards and three touchdowns, averaging a healthy 11.0 YPA, and made a real statement by taking the OU flag and planting it at midfield of Ohio Stadium. It may not be what everyone likes, but hey -- you win, you can do what you want to.   

SAM DARNOLD -- A week after playing what some called a bad game -- it wasn't -- Darnold answered with a monster showing, going 21-of-26 for 316 yards and four touchdowns in a 42-24 romp over nemesis Stanford. It's not often that the Cardinal defense is bludgeoned to the tune of 623 total yards, but Darnold was masterful. He threw lasers on scoring passes to Deontay Burnett and Steven Mitchell Jr., and just looked more confident in his offense. It helped him immensely that USC had a pair of 100 yard rusher, and that Stanford had just one sack, but Darnold was the center of attention in this one, and he responded.

DUDS 
OHIO STATE OFFENSE -- Kevin Wilson was hailed as an offensive guru after building Indiana into a competitive team, and when Urban Meyer announced Wilson's hiring Buckeye Nation went berserk. Finally, the offense was going to break out of the funk it was plagued by at the end of last season. As a noted philosopher once said, "Not so fast, my friend." The Buckeyes have scored just 65 points in two games, and against Oklahoma everything was off-kilter -- the pass protection (J.T. Barrett was sacked three times, hurried numerous other times and pushed out of the pocket most of the night), the receivers (broken record, not much separation), Barrett (just 19-of-35 for 183 yards and zero touchdowns) and, strangely enough, the running backs. Meyer has always prided his teams as being physical running offenses -- so why did running backs J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber combine for just 16 carries against an Oklahoma front that was vulnerable to the ground game? Until Meyer and Wilson get on the same page, and figure out just what this offense is, the Buckeyes will struggle.

NEBRASKA DEFENSE -- The hiring of Bob Diaco was supposed to make Nebraska more like the Blackshirts of old, aggressive, swarming and scary. Oregon put a stop to that, putting up 566 yards on the way to a 42-35 victory. The Huskers had zero sacks and just three tackles for loss against the Ducks, who are supposed to still be getting used to new coach Willie Taggart and the way he runs things. QB Justin Herbert was barely hassled, and completed 25-of-33 for 365 yards and three scores. His passing opened things up for Royce Freeman to average over 5.2 YPC and score twice on the ground. Coupled with the 415 yards and 36 points Arkansas State scored a week earlier, and it's not tough to figure out that the Huskers need some help on defense.

LOUISIANA TECH -- This one has to be seen to be believed. All we'll say is that it broke a record for most yards needed on third down -- third and 57 -- set by Georgia against Tennessee in 2011. Tech was lined up second and goal at the Mississippi State six-yard-line, and then this loveliness happened.

Sunday Morning Tally

 Another weekend of college football action in the books, which means another Sunday of tallying up the damages. We were better this week, and felt good about Duke and Boise State, almost picking the latter for a win. And Iowa State -- oh, Iowa State. How we felt so good about you, and yet you yanked the rug right out from under us by losing in such an Iowa State fashion.

TOP GAMES
(13) Auburn at (3) Clemson (-5.5)
Pick -- Clemson 28, Auburn 24; Score - Clemson 14-6 (SU W/ATS L)

(7) Oklahoma at (2) Ohio State (-7.5)
Pick -- Ohio State 34, Oklahoma 28; Score -- Oklahoma 31-16 (SU L/ATS W)

(15) Georgia at (24) Notre Dame (-4.5)
Pick -- Georgia 28, Notre Dame 25; Score -- Georgia 20-19 (SU/ATS W)

(14) Stanford at (6) USC (-6)
Pick -- Stanford 27, USC 24; Score -- USC 42-24 (SU/ATS L)

OTHER GAMES
Northwestern at Duke (+3)
Pick -- Duke 28, Northwestern 26; Score -- Duke 41-17 (SU/ATS W)

Iowa at Iowa State (+3)
Pick -- Iowa State 23, Iowa 21; Score -- Iowa 44-41 (OT) (SU L/ATS W)

(17) Louisville at North Carolina (+10)
Pick -- Louisville 31, North Carolina 24; Score -- Louisville 47-35 (SU W/ATS L)

Indiana at Virginia (+3)
Pick -- Indiana 38, Virginia 31; Score -- Indiana 34-17 (SU/ATS W)

Wake Forest at Boston College (Pick)   
Pick -- Wake Forest 24, Boston College 17; Score -- Wake Forest 34-10 (SU/ATS W)

Western Michigan at Michigan State (-7.5)
Pick -- Michigan State 28, Western Michigan 24; Score -- Michigan State 28-14 (SU W/ATS L)

Pittsburgh at (4) Penn State (-21)
Pick -- Penn State 44, Pittsburgh 20; Score -- Penn State 33-14 (SU W/ATS L)

(23) TCU at Arkansas (+3)
Pick -- TCU 34, Arkansas 32; Score -- TCU 28-7 (SU W/ATS L)

Nebraska at Oregon (-13.5)
Pick -- Oregon 41, Nebraska 38; Score -- Oregon 42-35 (SU/ATS W)

Toledo at Nevada (+9.5)
Pick -- Toledo 40, Nevada 27; Score -- Toledo 37-24 (SU/ATS W)

South Carolina at Missouri (-2.5)
Pick -- Missouri 27, South Carolina 26; Score -- South Carolina 31-13 (SU/ATS L)

Minnesota at Oregon State (-2)
Pick -- Oregon State 27, Minnesota 21; Score -- Minnesota 48-14 (SU/ATS L)

Utah at Brigham Young (+2.5)
Pick -- Utah 27, Brigham Young 23; Score -- Utah 19-13 (SU/ATS W)

Houston at Arizona (+1)
Pick -- Houston 38, Arizona 35; Score -- Houston 19-16 (SU/ATS W)

Boise State at (20) Washington State (-10)
Pick -- Washington State 30, Boise State 27; Score -- Washington State 47-44 3 OT (SU/ATS W)

San Diego State at Arizona State (-3.5)
Pick -- Arizona State 38, San Diego State 35; Score -- San Diego State 30-20 (SU L/ATS W)

2017 RECORD
SU -- Week 14-6; Overall 28-8; ATS -- Week 11-8-1; Overall 29-27-1

Saturday, September 9, 2017

Week 3 By The Numbers

No video this week, kids, having trouble with my YouTube channel.

So we will just present some numbers for the top four games, and picks that are sure to make you a mint. I hit both games last night, tabbing Purdue and Oklahoma State to cover, so I feel a big, productive Saturday is in store.

TOP GAMES
(13) Auburn at (3) Clemson
TRENDS
Auburn just 9-8 SU away since 2013 and 4-5 ATS in same capacity; Auburn 12-26 L38 ATS; Auburn 1-2 ATS vs. ACC since 2012; Clemson 32-3 SU at home since 2012, but just 16-15-1 ATS in same capacity; Clemson has covered 8 straight vs. BCS non ACC foes
ANALYSIS
Last year's game was a 19-13 Clemson victory at Auburn, so the visitors could be looking for a measure of revenge. Auburn has upgraded its quarterback play with Baylor/JUCO transfer Jarrett Stidham, and get the services of RB Kamryn Pettway and WR Kyle Davis back after each served a one game suspension. Clemson got a nice showing from new QB Kelly Bryant, but he will have to raise his game another notch if Dabo Swinney's bunch is to have success. Both sides feature stout defenses, especially up front, so it may be left to turnovers and special teams to decide things. Clemson has gotten used to winning big games, and just feels like the safer pick, so we like them at home, winning late. 
Line -- Clemson -5.5; Pick -- Clemson 28, Auburn 24

(7) Oklahoma at (2) Ohio State
TRENDS
Sooners a little unknown under new coach Riley, previously OC; Oklahoma 22-2 SU away from home since 2012, 3-1 ATS as road dog; Oklahoma 11-4 ATS L15 as visitor; Buckeyes 5-9 ATS as home chalk last two seasons, but 13-1 SU at home in that span; Buckeyes 37-1 SU in home openers since 1979; OSU 15-10 ATS vs. non-B1G since 2012
ANALYSIS
Buckeyes blasted Sooners in Norman last fall, so you can bet Oklahoma comes in with a chip on its shoulder. QB Baker Mayfield is one of the best around, and even though he has lost a lot of weapons, he still has TE Mark Andrews, and a bunch of resourcefulness that keeps plays alive. Sooners have an excellent offensive line, one that could challenge the Buckeyes' front four. Oklahoma defensively has athletes, though many are new and largely untested. Look for Ohio State to bully the Sooners with the ground game, setting up some over the top shots by QB J.T. Barrett. Don't be surprised if the Buckeyes show some new things here, things that weren't used against Indiana in the opener. There will be enough misfires on both sides to keep the competitive well into the fourth quarter, but the belief here is that Ohio State's depth eventually wears the Sooners down.
Line -- Ohio State -7.5; Pick -- Ohio State 34, Oklahoma 28

(15) Georgia at (24) Notre Dame
TRENDS
Dawgs 3-5 SU since 2009 in road openers; UGA 14-7 SU away since 2012 but just 1-3 ATS as road dog in that span; Notre Dame 1-4 SU LY hosting Power5 schools, and 30-38-2 ATS in that capacity since 2010; ND 2-5 ATS in second game of season L7Y, and ND just 3-5 ATS L8 in South Bend.
ANALYSIS
The only time these two proud programs have played was in the 1981 Sugar Bowl, a 17-10 Georgia victory that gave it the national title. Georgia always has more buzz than it deserves, and Notre Dame has been just a blip on the national scene for most of Brian Kelly's tenure in South Bend. One of these teams will take a big step forward, and it will be the one that manages its young quarterback best. Georgia has true freshman Jake Fromm while the Irish have sophomore Brandon Wimbush, and each has lofty credentials. Fromm is the better passer, Wimbush more of a dual threat, and both have weapons. Whichever is rattled less by pressure is the one who comes out ahead, and we believe that the Bulldogs will do a better job generating heat on the offense than the host Irish will. For that reason, we're picking a narrow victory for the visitors. 
Line -- Notre Dame -4.5; Pick -- Georgia 28, Notre Dame 25

(14) Stanford at (6) USC
TRENDS
Stanford has won three of last five meetings SU, including last two by avg of 13.5 ppg; Stanford 25-9 SU away since 2011 and 5-2-1 ATS in that span; Cardinal 11-3 L14 ATS vs. USC and 14-2-1 ATS L17 away; Trojans 4-3 ATS in second of B2B home games since 2012; USC 19-10 ATS as home favorite since 2012; USC 14-27 ATS off SU win since 2012
ANALYSIS
USC might have the Hollywood cool, but Stanford has the muscle, and the upper hand in the series. The Cardinal have won three straight and seven of the last nine, and will go into this one with a singular mindset -- be tough off the line and run the football. The Trojans allowed 263 yards on the ground to Western Michigan last weekend, and there were numerous issues with tackling and run fits. That must be cleaned up, and now. USC has Sam Darnold and Ronald Jones II and Deontay Burnett, all stars of differing magnitudes -- offense isn't the problem for USC. Stopping Bryce Love and the powerful Stanford offense line could be, and the fact that Stanford has had two weeks to prepare for this gives it the edge. 
Line -- USC -6; Pick -- Stanford 27, USC 24

OTHER GAMES
Northwestern at Duke -- Wildcats are 10-2 in the series since 1996; NU is just 5-9 as a road favorite since 2007, including 1-1 the last three years; NU is 10-4 ATS as a visitor since 2014; Duke 5-1 ATS as a home underdog 2013, 17-8 ATS overall as a dog
Line -- Duke +3; Pick -- Duke 28, Northwestern 26

Iowa at Iowa State -- Iowa has covered three of the last four against the Cyclones; Iowa is 11-1 ATS as a road favorite the last four years, but just 22-22 in that capacity since 2012; Iowa has won nine of its last 10 road games outright; Iowa State was 4-1 ATS as a home underdog last season, and coach Matt Campbell are 18-9 ATS the last 27 times as an underdog; the visitor has won four of the last five in this series.
Line -- Iowa State +3; Pick -- Iowa State 23, Iowa 21

(17) Louisville at North Carolina -- Louisville is just 2-8 ATS since mid-2016, and just 1-4 L5 as road favorite; Cardinals are 11-6 SU on road in conference play since 2014, but just 11-13 in that same capacity ATS; The home team has won three straight in this series, though this will be the first meeting since 2012; UNC is 25-8 SU at home under Larry Fedora (2012), but just 7-12-1 ATS as underdog in Fedora's tenure.
Line -- North Carolina +10; Pick -- Louisville 31, North Carolina 24

Indiana at Virginia -- Indiana is 9-4 SU in road openers L13, but have dropped two of last four; IU is just 5-4 ATS as a road favorite since 2007, and 6-2 ATS on the road vs. non-B1G; Virginia has won both matchups in this series; Wahoos are 18-18-1 ATS as home dogs since 2007, but 8-4 the L3Y; Virginia 1-6 ATS in last seven contests in 2016.
Line -- Virginia +3; Pick -- Indiana 38, Virginia 31

Wake Forest at Boston College -- The L3 games in the series have been decided by 6, 3 and 3 points; Wake 18-25 as road dog since 2007, but 9-7 ATS L3Y; Wake 7-3 ATS as visitor since 2014; BC 3-10 ATS as host the L2Y; Eagles just 8-7 ATS as home fave since 2013, but 16-15-1 ATS vs. ACC in that span.
Line -- Pick'em; Pick -- Wake Forest 24, Boston College 17

Western Michigan at Michigan State -- Broncos 2-12 SU vs. Sparty and 4-16 vs. non-conference on the road L8Y, but did go 2-0 ATS vs. B1G in 2016; WMU 5-2 ATS L7 on road vs. B1G and 13-4 ATS since 2013 as visiting dog; MSU just 27-34-1 ATS as home fave under Dantonio, including 4-8 L2Y; MSU 10-17 vs. line since 2015 and was 1-7 ATS in 2016
Line -- Michigan State -7.5; Pick -- Michigan State 28, Western Michigan 24

Pittsburgh at (4) Penn State -- Just third meeting between the schools since 2000, Pitt won at home last year; Pitt 7-5 SU L2Y on road, and 6-3 ATS as road dog in that span; Pitt 11-16 overall vs. number since 2015; PSU has covered 11 straight, including last six at home; PSU 10-6 ATS L3Y as home favorite and 8-6 ATS vs. non-conference.
Line -- Penn State -21; Pick -- Penn State 44, Pittsburgh 20

(23) TCU at Arkansas -- TCU just 3-31 SU vs. Hogs since 1959, but 9-3 in road openers since 2004, winning by 18 ppg; TCU just 4-7 ATS as road fave L3Y, 12-4 SU on road in that span; TCU 3-10 vs. spread in 2016; Hogs 23-15-1 vs. spread since 2014, and 5-3 L3Y as home dog; Arkansas just 7-8 vs. ranked foes since 2013.
Line -- Arkansas +3; Pick -- TCU 34, Arkansas 32

Nebraska at Oregon -- Huskers coach Riley very familiar from his days at Oregon State, going 4-10 SU; Nebraska has won 5L7 road openers and are 4-2-1 L3Y ATS as a road underdog; Huskers 10-7-1 ATS L18 games; Oregon has won 25L26 as host vs. non-conference; Ducks just 8-11 ATS as a home fave L3Y, though Taggart-coached squads 8-1-1 ATS as host and 18-8-1 vs. line last two seasons.
Line -- Oregon -13.5; Pick -- Oregon 41, Nebraska 38

Toledo at Nevada -- Rockets 4-10 SU in L14 road openers and 1-7 in Mountain/Pacific time zones since 1996; Toledo 5-3 as road fave since 2014, and covered just 2 of L9 in 2016; Wolf Pack 10-3 ATS as double digit dog L13, so watch the number; Nevada 13-3 SU in home openers since 2001 but 2-5 ATS as home dog since 2014.
Line -- Nevada +9.5; Pick -- Toledo 40, Nevada 27

South Carolina at Missouri -- Gamecocks beat NCState despite being outgained in total yards, and go on the road in SEC play, where they are just 2-10 since 2009; South Carolina 5-8 ATS as a road dog L3Y but have won 3L5 outright vs. Mizzou; Tigers 6-7 ATS as home fave L3Y, but covered 4 of 6 at home in 2016;
Line -- Missouri -2.5; Pick -- Missouri 27, South Carolina 26

Minnesota at Oregon State -- Gophers hold a 3-1 series advantage, but this is just second meeting since 1981; Minnesota 11-4 SU in road openers since 2002 and are 6-4-1 ATS as road dog L3Y; Gophers 2-6 ATS L8 vs. non-B1G; Beavers just 3-6 ATS as home favorite L3Y, but 2-1 ATS L3 vs. B1G, all as underdog.
Line -- Oregon State -2; Pick -- Oregon State 27, Minnesota 21

Utah at Brigham Young -- Utes 12-5 SU on the road L3Y, but just 4-3 ATS as road fave in that span; utah has won six straight meetings SU dating back to 2010; BYU is 15-3 SU at home since 2014, but 2-0-1 as home dog since 2013; Cougs 5-2-1 ATS vs. Pac-12 since 2012
Line -- Brigham Young +2 .5; Pick -- Utah 27, Brigham Young 23

Houston at Arizona -- Cougars 3-0-1 ATS in second of B2B road games since 2012; Houston 7-4 ATS as road fave since 2014, but overall just 1-7-1 ATS in last nine in 2016; Arizona is 7-4 ATS as home dog under RichRod, 23-11 SU in his coaching tenure (2012)
Line -- Arizona +1; Pick -- Houston 38, Arizona 35

Boise State at (20) Washington State -- Boise 6-6 in road openers L12Y, beat Wazzu for first time last season; Broncos 12-5 SU on the road in three years under Bryan Harsin, yet to be an away dog ATS in that span; Boise 11-6 ATS as a visitor under Harsin, and visiting team is 19-6 ATS in Boise non-bowl games; Wazzu just 15-16 SU at home since 2012, but 10-8 ATS as a home favorite in same span; WSU 3-3 ATS as DD fave vs. FBS since 2012;
Line -- Washington State -10; Pick -- Washington State 30, Boise State 27

San Diego State at Arizona State -- Aztecs are 0-10-1 SU vs ASU and 3-21 in road openers; SDSU just 3-9 SU in non-league road games under Rocky Long; Aztecs 9-8 ATS as road dog since 2011; ASU 7-2 ATS L9 at home and 17-9 in that role since 2011
Line -- Arizona State -3.5; Pick -- Arizona State 38, San Diego State 35

2017 RECORD
SU -- 28-8; ATS -- 18-18

Friday, September 8, 2017

Confident Stanford Heads South To Face USC


Stanford's Bryce Love will be the focus of USC's defense


 USC is a chic pick to make a the College Football Playoff, and why not?

 The sixth-ranked Trojans have another poster boy quarterback in redshirt sophomore Sam Darnold, speed and quickness at the skill positions and a defense made of prep All-Americas. Add in the clutch comeback in last year's Rose Bowl win over Penn State, and it all adds up.

 Just don't tell No. 14 Stanford, because the Cardinal come into Tinseltown brimming with confidence after an opening week bludgeoning of Rice, and three straight wins over the Trojans. In fact, Stanford has fairly mastered USC, winning seven of the last nine meetings.

 It's no secret what the game plan is -- play physical, smashmouth football to perfection, with a lightning quick running back -- this year Bryce Love, the last few seasons Christian McCaffrey -- a mistake-free quarterback and an offensive line in which all five players play as one.

 USC allowed 263 rushing yards in a 49-31 victory over Western Michigan last weekend, which has coach Clay Helton more than a bit worried.

 "That's as good a running game as we may face, them and Stanford in back-to-back weeks, and we've got some things we need to clean up defensively," Helton said. USC often was too aggressive attacking the Broncos ground game, leaving open cutback lanes to take advantage of. Love gained 180 yards against Rice, and stymied the Owls with amazing cutbacks and stop-on-a-dime change of direction. If the Trojans don't get that fixed, Love will run wild.

 Helton knows that the running game shapes the outcome, and he leaned on something he was told early in his coaching career.

 "Games are won by running the ball, stopping the run, not turning it over and playing great special teams," Helton said. "They are the best in our league at running the ball, year in and year out."

 Stanford won't be afraid to throw the football, but with quarterback Keller Chryst still finding a rhythm after offseason surgery, you can bet the Cardinal will manage the game mostly on the ground. That means a busy day for USC linebackers Cameron Smith and Porter Gustin.
Ronald Jones II makes USC's ground game him (Getty Images)

 While Darnold grabs the headlines, rightfully, for USC, running back Ronald Jones II doesn't need to take a back seat to anyone. He scored three touchdowns and averaged 8.8 ypc against Western Michigan, scoring the go-ahead touchdown with just under seven minutes to play.

 Stanford coach David Shaw says that stopping Jones II will have to be a team effort.

 "You gotta brings your friends because the first guy might not be able to get him down," Shaw said.

 Shaw also knows that even if Jones II gets his yardage, Stanford will need to concentrate on Darnold.

 "He's the best quarterback in the country in my opinion," Shaw said. "He doesn't get rattled, he likes the big occasion. We definitely have to try to disrupt him as much as we can or else it will be a long night."

 Darnold threw for 289 yards, 142 of those going to Deontay Burnett. Stanford safety Quenton Meeks and his secondary mates will need to keep tabs on Burnett, who has shown the ability to be a deep threat.

 In this day and age of tempo, Stanford is a throwback. The Cardinal are deliberate, physical and not afraid to stay within their identity. They don't get thrown off kilter on offense, and are able to brush off a three-and-out series with an even demeanor. Shaw has done a masterful job continuing what Jim Harbaugh started, and he has turned Stanford into a true program.

 We'll know around midnight whether or not that program is the best in the Pac-12, or if the star-studded Trojans have the requisite toughness to protect their home turf.

Thursday, September 7, 2017

Irish, Bulldogs Seek Legitimacy As Showdown Looms


Brandon Wimbush gives Notre Dame a dual threat at quarterback


 The last (and only) time Notre Dame and Georgia faced off in a football game, Ronald Reagan was president, Charles and Diana has just gotten married and Raiders of the Lost Ark was riding high at the box office.

 The Bulldogs were coming off of the 1980 national championship (beating the Irish in the Sugar Bowl), and Notre Dame was beginning one of its darkest eras, a five year stretch with Gerry Faust as head coach. He would go 30-26-1, and amass the lowest winning percentage of any ND coach who spent at least five years in charge. Both programs were relevant back then, though their fan bases will tell you that both are still relevant today -- which is debatable.

 What isn't debatable is that this is an intriguing contest between two ranked teams, currently a bit under the radar but with talent and expectations to make an ascent in the rankings.

 Georgia coach Kirby Smart likes the attention the game brings, though he admitted to not seeing very much of the Irish in the last couple of seasons.

 "I think these kinds of games in college football are really cool because you get to go play somebody that you don't normally play," Smart said. "It's just weird for me because you're familiar with your conference players."

 Both squads have new quarterbacks, the Irish by plan and the Bulldogs by injury.

 Notre Dame's Brandon Wimbush was a standout in the Irish victory over Temple, throwing for 184 and two touchdowns and rushing for 106 yards and another score. While Irish coach Brian Kelly doesn't necessarily look for dual threat quarterbacks, he said he does like the idea of having a player who can put pressure on a defense a variety of ways.

 Smart noticed Wimbush's performances and knows that his defense will have to be on point to slow him down.

 "Brandon Wimbush is an explosive athlete," Smart said. "He looks as fast as any player on their team. They do a very good job of the RPO system. They run downhill at you, and they are as good looking an offensive line as you will ever play."

 Wimbush wasn't the only player causing headaches against Temple, though.

 Running back Josh Adams exploded for 161 yards and two scores, and 6-5 wideout Equanimeous St. Brown had four grabs for 80 yards and a touchdown. He is a freakish athlete, one who gives the 24th-ranked Irish a deep threat and gives opposing defenses headaches.

 Notre Dame notched 11 tackles for loss against the Owls, and got some push from its defensive line, which is a change from years past. Mike Elko has changed the attitude and technique of the front, and they are now more aggressive at firing off the ball instead of merely occupying blockers and allowing the linebackers to clean things up.

 Kelly knows the Irish play a grueling schedule every season, but having not faced Georgia before personally, and the school only playing them once, makes for an exciting evening.

 "This the great part about being an independent football team in that you get these kinds of games, getting a chance to play against a team that's regarded as one of the very best in the SEC," Kelly said. "So our guys are excited about the challenge and looking forward to Saturday night."

 Kelly would love for his team to control the line of scrimmage the way it did against Temple, but knows that could be a tougher task as No. 15 Georgia's athletes are a notch or two above what the Owls have. But it isn't just the talent that Kelly notices.

"They like to play the four I defense, which causes some problems with your schemes and combinations," Kelly said. "Two gap noses. They like to move the fronts around, which causes some problems up front. So it frees up linebackers to run and hit. So what it is about his defense is that when you have four linebackers, you've got guys running off the edges. They can get to you off the edge as well as moving the front around. When you're in three down you can easily play three down and four down from week to week. There is that ability to morph into what you want to be. That in itself allows him a lot of creativity."

Georgia, which had an easy time in a win over Appalachian State, may need to lean on that defense due to an injury suffered by incumbent quarterback Jacob Eason. He will not go in this game, which means heralded freshman Jake Fromm will make his first collegiate start, in one of the most hallowed of all playing fields. It will be a step up from the opener, where he went 10 of 15 for 143 yards and a touchdown, and looked poised and mature leading the offense to three first-half touchdowns.
Georgia freshman Jake Fromm will be under the microscope against Notre Dame

 While he possesses a big arm, Fromm may not be asked to do too much.

 And why would he, when he has possibly the best 1-2 backfield punch in America?

 "Sony Michel and Nick Chubb, they are elite backs," Kelly said. "I mean, you're going to see two guys that will be NFL players and have great careers. So two elite backs."

 Chubb had 96 and two touchdowns and Michel added 87 yards and a score of his own.

 Georgia is talented but young, and that would normally be a concern for Smart, especially in an environment such as Notre Dame Stadium. But kids today are cut from a different cloth, and aren't usually flustered by big moments.

 "Kids nowadays are different," Smart said. "If it was my freshman year and we were going there I think it would have been more intimidating. To be honest with you, these kids know Notre Dame's players. A long time ago you didn't know Notre Dame's players unless you saw them on TV because you didn't get recruited with them. These kids have gone to all-star games with those guys. They know those players.

 "Certainly, when you go on the road the environment changes. You have to try to simulate that environment, make sure they are calm and that they play well."

 The Irish are looking for their third 2-0 start in the last five seasons, and have won 40 games at home in Kelly's tenure, including 12 the last three seasons.

 Georgia has been a good road team in recent seasons, compiling an 18-7 record away from home since 2011. The Bulldogs have been money in non-conference games, going 13-2 the last three seasons, with wins over North Carolina and Clemson.

 Fans may not be ready to embrace either team as legitimate yet, simply because it's early in the season and there have been too many disappointments to truly get hopes up. Kelly plays off the must-win talk, preferring to focus on his team improving and showing that last year's 4-8 mark was an aberration.

 Smart realizes what's at stake for his team, that people might actually buy in if the Bulldogs come away with a victory. And though his memories of Notre Dame aren't many, he knows that a win over the Irish will be a feather for the program.

 "My memories of Notre Dame are more Rocket Ismail, Tim Brown (who was, interestingly enough, recruited by Faust), around that time," Smart said. "I was really too young to remember the national championship game, and I was not actually in the state of Georgia yet. It's a special place, I know that. It's just a resume that speaks for itself."

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Auburn Roars Into Death Valley With Something To Prove


Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant faces Auburn in just his second collegiate start (Bleacher Report)

 Clemson had not had much success against Auburn through the years, at one point losing 14 straight to their fellow Tigers.

 But the South Carolina felines have turned the tables, winning the last three contests, including last year's road victory that was the springboard for a national championship. Both squads came off of easy wins last weekend, Clemson blasting Kent State 56-3 and Auburn blistering Georgia Southern 41-7.

 Now they match up with high rankings -- Clemson No. 3, Auburn No. 13 -- and high hopes, the loser taking a few steps back in their quest to make the College Football Playoff. Each side understands what's on the line, so don't be surprised if there's a little more focus and intensity this week.

 "We like playing these type of games," Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said. "It helps you going into conference play, and win or lose you find out a lot about yourself. This is a really good battle."

 Clemson lost a ton of talent from last year's championship team, notably clutch quarterback Deshaun Watson. Tasked with replacing him was junior Kelly Bryant, and he passed his first audition, throwing for 236 yards and a score and running for 77 yards and a touchdown in his debut. He appeared steady and not overwhelmed by the moment, though things will easily ramp up a bit this week with Auburn coming to town.

 Swinney's crew used a committee approach running the ball, averaging 8.2 yards per carry against the overmatched Golden Flashes. Reliable veteran wideout Deon Cain grabbed a pair of passes, amassing 70 yards and a touchdown.

 Defense is supposedly going to be Clemson's calling card this year, and the Flashes were held to just 120 yards of total offense and five first downs.

 Swinney praised Auburn's defense, remembering that yards were hard to come by in last season's 19-13 victory, and he expects more of the same in this showdown. Swinney hopes that his young squad can play with the same focus and determination as it did in the opener, citing consistency as the hallmark of a successful team.

 Auburn's Tigers were no less forgiving to Georgia Southern, limiting the visitors to just 78 total yards.

 Quarterback Jarrett Stidham, who began his career at Baylor before arriving at Auburn via the JUCO route, was solid if not spectacular in his debut, going 14-of-24 for 185 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also showed the ability to evade trouble, stepping up in the pocket on numerous occasions and running for a touchdown.

 Stidham is the best dual combination quarterback Auburn has had since Nick Marshall, though Stidham is a better passer. Auburn coach Gus Malzahn schemes to his quarterbacks very well, and knows he will have to get creative against Clemson's ferocious defense.

 "We need to build around Jarrett's strengths and what he feels comfortable with," Malzahn said. "That's a big part of the game plan. There is nothing like going out there. You've just got to do it. He's been on the road, I believe, a couple of games he played in, and this will be one of the best environments there is. So it will be good for the future. Dealing with crowd noise and dealing with communication and everything that goes with it, I think that will be good for him. I think it will be for our team.

 "This game will show where we're at right now and be a good measuring stick, so I think it's good for all of them."

 Auburn will gain the services of running back Kamryn Pettway and receiver Kyle Davis, both of whom were suspended for the opener. Pettway was Auburn's leading rusher a year ago, and may be called upon a lot as backfield running mate Kerryon Johnson came out of the Georgia Southern game with an injury. Johnson finished with 136 yards, and it is unknown at this time whether or not he will play. True freshman Kam Martin churned out 136 yards and a touchdown on just 14 carries, and would get work behind Pettway if Johnson cannot answer the bell.
Auburn RB Kamryn Pettway should make his 2017 debut this week (SEC Country)

 Davis averaged over 20 yards per grab last season and gives Auburn the ability to stretch the field, something it didn't do in the opener.

 Malzahn recalls vividly his team's inability to move the football in last year's game, finishing with just 175 yards and allowing four sacks. Still, it took a batted down Hail Mary by Clemson on the final play of the game to escape with a victory.

 "There was some miscommunication (last year) that we have to get cleaned up," Malzahn said. "We cannot get behind the chains like we did last year against these guys. They got after us pretty good on first down and put us in some negative situations. We can't have that this week."

 Swinney knows that being defending national champion brings a different buzz to a program, and he is one who relishes the spotlight. Scheduling this kind of matchup early in the season is something a lot of programs won't do, but Swinney and his team have proven they won't run from a fight.

 Even better if that fight is under the lights, in front of 81,500 orange clad crazies.

 "Well it's just a night game in the Valley. To me that's what make Clemson special," Swinney said. "Even last week at a noon game, Tiger Walk was amazing, there was a ton of energy. But it is always great to me, regardless of who we play. But there is something special when the lights are on and you get a full day of enjoyment and traffic is backed up all the way past Anderson."

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Oklahoma Wants Revenge As It Heads To Ohio State

J.T. Barrett will take center stage as his Ohio State Buckeyes host Oklahoma this Saturday (NewsOK)

  
 Now the real fun begins.

 After easy wins over their first opponents, Ohio State and Oklahoma face off in a top 10 contest sure to impact the College Football Playoff race. The Sooners are looking for revenge after the Buckeyes came in to Norman last year and walked out with a 45-24 victory.

 The Sooners are working on an 11-game winning streak, the nation's longest -- the last loss being against the Buckeyes.

 Oklahoma blasted UTEP 56-7 in its opener, while OSU took a bit of time to get going before pulling away from Indiana and winning 49-21. 

 The stakes may be high -- ESPN GameDay will broadcast from Columbus, and the game is a national telecast, Saturday night at 7:30 -- but Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield wouldn't want it any other way.

 "You're either born with it or you're not," Mayfield said. "Without pressure, there's no diamonds."
  
 Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer is one of Mayfield's biggest fans, and knows that the OSU defense will have to be on high alert Saturday night. Indiana was able to throw for 410 yards against Ohio State's young secondary, and even though he's breaking in new receivers and running backs, Mayfield has enough experience to take advantage of anything he sees as a weakness.

 "What I love about Baker, he's a competitive guy," Meyer said.

 Mayfield went 19-of-20 with three touchdown passes against UTEP, his favorite target being junior tight end Mark Andrews, who finished with seven grabs and 134 yards. Given how many issues Ohio State had with the Indiana passing game, it wouldn't be surprising if Mayfield's eyes got as big as saucers when he takes the field.

 Meyer knows the challenge ahead of his young secondary.
Baker Mayfield (NewsOK)


 "We have to knock some balls down," Meyer said. "The one thing about IU, that quarterback is extremely accurate, the receivers made a bunch of great catches. But we have got to knock some more balls away."

 One way to keep Mayfield from going crazy is to dial up the pass rush. The Sooners have one of the best left tackles in the country in Orlando Brown, and he will be in charge of stopping Sam Hubbard and Nick Bosa from imposing their will. Bosa played 59 snaps against Indiana, and got better as the game progressed, so Riley knows that his linemen will need to be on point if the Sooners offense is to succeed.

 "They're definitely one of the top groups we'll see among the defensive front," Riley said. "Their depth and explosiveness is very impressive. These guys do a great job schematically. Their coaches are very good, they're very, very sound." 

 It will be almost 40 years to the day -- Sept. 24, 1977 -- that Oklahoma last came to Columbus, and to call that game memorable is doing a disservice to memorable games. Oklahoma, which had Billy Sims, Kenny King and Elvis Peacock in its backfield, took a 17-0 first quarter lead before the Buckeyes were able to gain their bearings. A Sooners field goal made it 20-0, and ABC made the decision to switch away to regional coverage.

 It was the nation's loss as OSU scored twice within a minute, the second coming on a Rod Gerald scamper, and it was suddenly 20-14 at halftime. The Buckeyes stayed hot and took a 28-20 lead into the fourth quarter, but Oklahoma trimmed it to 28-26 with a touchdown and failed two point conversion. Oklahoma recovered an onside kick, marched to the Buckeyes 23 yard line with six seconds left. Sooners kicker Uwe von Schamann split the uprights, giving his team a thrilling victory.

 While Mayfield receives most of the buzz, the Buckeyes have J.T. Barrett, and there is no one with whom Meyer would rather go into battle.

 "He's a very accurate passer," Meyer said. "I made this comment -- the accuracy of the quarterback has to do with the timing and relationship he has with the receivers. If he's expecting a receiver to come back and the receiver goes there, it may look like it's the quarterback's fault. We had some accuracy issues (last season) with J.T., but also with the receivers. It's much better now."

 The Buckeyes will have the services of sophomore running back Mike Weber, who sat out the opener with a hamstring issue. In his stead, freshman JK Dobbins ran for 181 yards on 29 carries, and showed excellent change of direction and the ability to get skinny in traffic. Meyer wasn't sure about the workload each would have, but that's a pleasant dilemma.

 The Buckeyes have lost just one non-conference home game under Urban Meyer, 35-21 to Virginia Tech in 2014.

Monday, September 4, 2017

Monday Musings


This is one of the many moments that caused overreaction from Ohio State fans
  First week freak out.

 While not a disease, it is a sickness that afflicts fan bases across the college football landscape.

 Signs include chronic complaining about a team's performance, even in an easy victory, depression about the season because you know it won't get any better, and a feeling in the pit of your stomach that won't go away.

 It was noticed in Columbus after Ohio State started slowly but pulled away for a 49-21 win over Indiana. The Buckeyes were never going to lose the game, yet fans were sick that the Hoosiers completed even one pass, that OSU couldn't get the offense going (never mind that it had 596 yards) and that J.T. Barrett was anywhere on the premises, even though he finished with over 300 passing yards and an healthy 8.7 yards per attempt. The Buckeyes were pretenders, not worthy of being in the CFP discussion.

 It was noticed in Seattle, where Washington went just three-of-11 on third downs and managed only 84 rushing yards against Rutgers. It appears that losing the top-line stars Washington did is just too much, and that the Pac-12 is no longer there for the taking. It's frightening to think what Stanford will do to them in November, because we all know Washington won't get any better.

 It would have been noticed in Los Angeles, if fans were as interested in USC as they are about the million other things to do in LA. USC didn't put away Western Michigan until midway through the fourth quarter, and Sam Darnold didn't throw a single touchdown pass. That has to mean his Heisman campaign is over, and that the Trojans will underachieve yet again, as they do every time they are anointed a top five team.

 This is the most comical part about following message boards and fan communities, the sheer volume of overreaction. Emotions change from week to week, half to half, hell, play to play. A guy is great one week, then not good enough to be on scout team the next week. It's one thing to worry a little bit about something that might not have gone as planned, but to make the declaration, after one week, that the season is going to be a bust and that your team isn't worthy of praise? Seems just a tiny bit overboard.

 To hear Ohio State fans tell it, Barrett -- despite the fact he's going to walk out of town with just about every conceivable passing record in school history -- is no better than Joe Bauserman. Think about that for a second, because it's something I actually heard.

 Is Barrett a great passer? No. Is he a good enough passer to take Ohio State where it wants to go? Most certainly. What gets lost on fans in Columbus is that Urban Meyer's spread offenses have never been designed for great passers. It's a spread to run, not pass, and looking through the list of quarterbacks Meyer has had you won't find one that would be considered great. Alex Smith is the only one who has made any kind of professional career, which shows that Meyer values leadership and toughness at the position more than he values a big-time arm.

 The Buckeyes defense gets the same treatment after Richard Lagow and Simmie Cobbs Jr. enjoyed their pitch and catch session. Never mind that the Buckeyes were breaking in almost an entirely new secondary, and that coverage on many of the plays was sound -- Cobbs just went up and got the football.

 We know that OSU fans believe that after one outing the Buckeyes are not worthy of CFP talk -- a ludicrous thought because Meyer will tighten up the deficiencies, and the offense will get used to the breakneck pace coordinator Kevin Wilson wants to employ.

 The same with Washington and USC -- the Huskies will fit their new pieces into place and get it humming, and Darnold will pick it up and start throwing touchdowns like they're going out of style.

 Rest assured, the next time those teams, or any of the other college football big boys, struggle, fans will fall back on the most time tested method they know.

 Snap Judgments
 Maybe it's time to pump the brakes on the "Tom Herman is the savior" talk that was going around Longhorn Nation.

 Texas 2017 looked a lot like Texas 2016, which begs the question -- why pay so much for so little production? They could have kept Charlie Strong and gotten a performance like the one they got Saturday against Maryland.

 Texas couldn't stop the run last year, and allowed the Terrapins to rush for 263 yards. The special teams in 2016 were a disaster, and Maryland returned a blocked field goal for a touchdown, and two other field goals were missed. The offense was inconsistent and at times seemed to lack focus -- 11 penalties for 117 yards says as much.

 Herman said afterward, "I told our guys to never get used to this feeling, but that if we all thought that we were going to come in here, and in nine months sprinkle fairy dust on this team and think that we've arrived, then we're wrong."

 Yeah, coach, you are. Because talent hasn't been the issue in Austin for the past few seasons. By most accounts, Strong did a bang-up job on the recruiting trail. He just couldn't figure out what to do on game day. Herman was supposed to change that, yet it was more of the same for the Longhorns. They get San Jose State next, which should be the panacea, but it looks like there is work to do before fans can utter that favorite Lone Star State phrase.

 Texas Is Back.

Boilers Up
 The hiring of Jeff Brohm from Western Kentucky might not have registered on the "Wow" meter, but it was a sound one. And if the results of Purdue's opener is any indication, there should finally be some long-term stability in West Lafayette.

 Purdue was hanging with Louisville, something that would have been impossible in 2016, or any time during the Darrell Hazell era (is that really a thing?). The Boilermakers seemed confident, quarterbacks made good decisions with the football and the team played as hard as it has in ages. Louisville just had too much Lamar Jackson, but Purdue looks set up for better times, especially if it settles on a quarterback.

 Mark it down -- Purdue will beat someone that it shouldn't, and it also will probably lose to someone it shouldn't. It isn't going to be an overnight process, but if Brohm can get the culture change going there's no reason that the Boilermakers can't make strides in the Big Ten West.

Seminoles Sadness
 Florida State enters every football season with high expectations, and should. Any year they don't win the national title is seen as a disappointment, if not an outright failure.

 This year was set up to be a big one in Tallahassee as FSU was a pick of many to reach the College Football Playoff. It was getting Derwin James back from injury, the defense as a whole was going to be nasty, and quarterback Deondre Francois had a year of maturity under his belt. This was going to be a big year for the Seminoles.

 But that has all been cast into question following the season-ending knee injury Francois suffered against Alabama. The sophomore was hit a ton last year yet always showed the resiliency to get up and make the next play. There were more than a few "Jameis" whispers for Francois, who showed the same calm in the pocket and big arm that Winston possesses. He was also a big time leader in the huddle, and that more than anything is the quality that Florida State will miss.

 Replacement James Blackman is, according to Jimbo Fisher, ready to roll. But in a season when FSU is replacing its all time leading running back and retooling the receiving corps, adding in a new quarterback seems to be too much to ask.

 Florida State can still have a solid season, though we won't know how solid until Sept. 16 when it faces Miami in Doak Campbell Stadium. The Seminoles with Francois were huge players in the national title chase. The Seminoles with Blackman are a huge unknown.

 State Of Texas Football
 We all know that football is a religion in Texas, so I wonder what's going through the minds of fans in the state after seeing Texas lose to Maryland, Texas A&M doing its midseason collapse a few weeks early and Baylor losing to an FCS program? Of the big time football playing schools, only TCU came out unscathed.

 The A&M loss was especially jarring as Kevin Sumlin saw his team blow a 44-10 lead and lose to UCLA 45-44, thanks to the magic arm of Bruins quarterback Josh Rosen. Sumlin entered the season on the hot seat, and after the loss a member of the school's Board of Regents said that it's time for Sumlin to go, now. That's not going to happen, but if Sumlin can't get his team together and rally to a nine-win season -- that's likely what it will take -- then he might want to start polishing up his resume.

 Given all of the problems at Baylor, Matt Rhule can have a mulligan for the entire season. Still, losing to Liberty, at home, isn't a good look for the Bears.

 "This was not what we wanted tonight," Rhule said after the game. "It does not mean I'm not proud of them. I put this on me. I put this on the coaches. It's our job to get it fixed."

 With its first three Big 12 contests against teams currently in the rankings, including two in the top 10, Baylor definitely has an uphill climb.

 The Elimination Game
 Beginning next week we will play the always entertaining game of "See You Next Year." Not familiar? Well, it's pretty simple.

 We basically say goodbye to Power 5 teams as they rack up the losses and eliminate themselves from College Football Playoff contention. We were tempted to start this week, with Baylor (you just CAN'T lose to Liberty) and North Carolina (yeah, Pac-12 foe, but not good), but figured we would give them a week, maybe a bit longer. I mean, who knows? Maybe Cal is good, or maybe the Baylor loss was an anomaly and the Bears run the table from here.