Friday, October 18, 2024

IT IS NOT TIME TO SEND RYAN DAY PACKING

Following Ohio State's loss to Oregon, a lot has been made about Ryan Day and his inability to win "big games" (in quotes because people have their own definition of big games, though truthfully it's pretty evident which ones are) and, going forward, taking the Buckeyes to their stated goal of a national title. 

Day is in his sixth full season in Columbus, which seems like a long time but really is not. The coaching business has changed, with fans expecting results sooner, and with transfers now a big part of the equation it is possible to boost a program to the top much quicker than in prior years. OSU fans who have skepticism seem to think that if Day was going to win a title, it would have happened already. But that's not the way it works. 

Some of the all-time greatest coaches took a long time to nab their first crown. Only Barry Switzer at Oklahoma and Pete Carroll at USC were able to break through in rapid fashion. Switzer won in his second year as a head coach at any college level, and Carroll took three years (though had a lot of NFL experience). Most of the others took quite awhile to grab their first national title, as the following numbers show. 

Kirby Smart (6th year as HC/6th at Georgia) 

Urban Meyer (6th year as HC/2nd at Florida) 

Jim Tressel (6th year as HC/6th at Youngstown State)

Woody Hayes(9th year as HC/4th at Ohio State) 

Jimmy Johnson (9th year as HC/4th at Miami) 

Dabo Swinney (9th year as HC/9th at Clemson) 

Nick Saban (10th year as HC/3rd at LSU)

Darrell Royal (10th year as HC/7th at Texas) 

Steve Spurrier (10th year as HC/7th at Florida) 

Ara Parseghian (11th year as HC/3rd at Notre Dame)

Jim Harbaugh (16th year as HC/9th at Michigan) 

Bear Bryant (17th year as HC/4th at Alabama) 

Tom Osborne (22nd year as HC/22nd at Nebraska) 

Bobby Bowden (28th year as HC/18th at Florida State) 

It's a good thing for a lot of these coaches that they weren't coming up today, because many probably wouldn't have had the chance to stick around long enough to win a natty. To say someone can't win a title just because they haven't is silly. They can't until they do. Most of the coaches on this list were probably derided by their fanbase as being unable to win the big one, to bring home the brass ring. Until they did. 

It is possible that Ryan Day isn't the guy to bring a title to Ohio State. But here's the thing -- that's impossible to say after one loss (by a single point) on the road to an excellent team, in an expanded CFP, with all of the Buckeyes' goals still attainable. If Ohio State loses another on the way then maybe that kind of talk can heat up. 

One current coach who has followed kind of the same trajectory and was bashed as someone who couldn't get it done is Steve Sarkisian at Texas. While he hasn't made that ultimate breakthrough, the Longhorns are once again relevant and seem ready for the long haul. Sark is in his 11th season and has a club that is more than just a small threat to win it all. Yet it wasn't that long ago that he was laughed at by outside fanbases, that Texas was going to continue in the malaise it had been in since Mack Brown left. 

Ohio State has not been in any kind of malaise under Day -- hell, the Buckeyes played for the national title in 2020 (yeah, it was a wacky year with Covid). You learn the most about a team following adversity, and the Buckeyes have a full week off before they get ready for another game. We'll see whether there is championship mettle with this bunch, from Day on down to the players. I am confident there will still be calls for his head -- with no definitive upgrade presented -- and that's fine. Fans can fan however they want to. But it should be noted that expectations don't always jibe with reality.

WHO ARE THE BIG GAME COACHES IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL?

 

 

 

Here are some numbers for coaches who have their teams currently ranked in the top 10.

Listed below are years at their current school, record vs Top 10, record vs Top 5 and losses to unranked teams. First year coaches were not considered. 

Steve Sarkisian/Texas (4th year) Top 10: 2-4; Top 5: 1-3; Unranked losses: 5

Dan Lanning/Oregon (3rd year) Top 10: 3-3; Top 5: 1-2; Unranked losses: 0

James Franklin/Penn State (11th year) Top 10: 3-17; Top 5: 1-13; Unranked losses: 14

Ryan Day/Ohio State (6th year) Top 10: 8-8; Top 5: 2-7; Unranked losses: 0

Kirby Smart/Georgia (9th year) Top 10: 19-9; Top 5: 9-6; Unranked losses: 3

Mario Cristobal/Miami (3rd year) Top 10: 0-3; Top 5: 0-1; Unranked losses: 8

Brian Kelly/LSU (3rd year) Top 10: 3-4; Top 5: 0-1; Unranked losses: 2

Matt Campbell/Iowa State (9th year) Top 10: 4-7; Top 5: 2-2; Unranked losses: 24

Dabo Swinney/Clemson (16th year) Top 10: 19-13; Top 5: 10-11; Unranked losses: 16

MOST TOP 10 WINS

Dabo Swinney 19

Kirby Smart 19 

Ryan Day 8

Matt Campbell 4

Dan Lanning/James Franklin/Brian Kelly 3

MOST TOP 10 GAMES 

Dabo Swinney 32 

Kirby Smart 28 

James Franklin 20 

Ryan Day 16 

Matt Campbell 11 

BEST TOP 10 WIN PERCENTAGE 

Kirby Smart 67.8 

Dabo Swinney 59.3 

Ryan Day 50.0 

Dan Lanning 50.0 

Brian Kelly 42.8 

MOST TOP 5 WINS 

Dabo Swinney 10 

Kirby Smart 9 

Ryan Day 2 

Matt Campbell 2 

MOST TOP 5 GAMES 

Dabo Swinney 21 

Kirby Smart 15 

James Franklin 14 

Ryan Day 9 

Matt Campbell/Steve Sarkisian 4 

BEST TOP 5 WIN PERCENTAGE 

Kirby Smart 60.0 

Matt Campbell 50.0 

Dabo Swinney 45.4 

Dan Lanning 33.3 

Steve Sarkisian 25.00

 

Graphic made by @FBInTheBoot