LAUGHING AT THE OUTRAGE

There’s been a lot of blowback from last night’s initial CFP release – some of it justified, some of it noise.

Up front I will say that I am NOT an Alabama fan, nor I do particularly care if the Tide lose all of their games. But I respect the hell out of Nick Saban and think that the reaction to Alabama being slotted at number two is a bit over the top, for a couple of reasons.

First -- it’s not like they have a shitty resume. Most thought the choice for No. 2 would come down to Bama or Michigan State. The Spartans have been great this season and were resilient and fun to watch and gritty in beating what is a pretty good Michigan team -- a top 10 team by the committee’s own admission.

Sparty is unbeaten, which is great – but is not by itself an automatic reason to make them No. 2. Alabama has the edge in SOS (13 to 50), Game Control (2 to 10) and ranked wins (2 to 1, albeit none in the top 10). MSU holds a slight edge in Strength of Record (2 to 4). Even efficiency metrics, which the committee doesn't use, give Alabama has a big edge.

People are acting like putting the Crimson Tide at two was a crime worse than Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme. It wasn’t. Alabama could have been three or could have been two. The gap wasn’t that big, and Bama checks more boxes than Michigan State.

So there’s that.

The other part of the equation – the dumber part – has been furthered by media types, mostly on the radio. I won’t name names, but one is a former player and the other is a regular sports talk host. They uttered maybe the single most inane thing I’ve heard in a long time – that the committee put Alabama at 2 so that if it loses a close contest to Georgia in the SEC title game it can sneak it into the playoff.

To these folks I say – have you been asleep in class for seven years?

History lesson time: since the advent of the CFP in 2014 there have been seven two-loss conference champions in the mix. Chronologically, they are:

Stanford 2015, Strength of Record 5, Strength of Schedule 13

Penn State 2016, SOR 5, SOS 40

Oklahoma 2016, SOR 6, SOS 15

Ohio State 2017, SOR 7, SOS 36

USC 2017, SOR 8, SOS 11

2019 Oregon, SOR 10, SOS 35

2020 Oklahoma, SOR 5, SOS 19

Wanna know what they all have in common? NONE OF THEM MADE THE CFP.

And yet media types believe that a two-loss NON-CHAMPION is in line to sneak into the proceedings? 

Alabama is at two right now, which is fine. Yet lurking in the weeds are Michigan State, Oregon, Ohio State and Oklahoma, any or all of whom could be one-loss conference champions. If that happens, there are your other three teams. No Bama.

The committee chair speaks in double talk as well as anyone, and should probably come out to the ESPN interview wearing a clown nose so that we can be on alert to not believe anything he says. The committee moves the goalposts, isn’t transparent and uses stats favorably for some teams and the same stats negatively for others. That’s just how they operate.

Be that as it may, it has been VERY consistent about a couple of things – it has valued league championships (only two of the 28 berths were non-champs), and it has pretty much dismissed two-loss teams. Even when they finished at 5 in the final rankings the committee said they really weren’t that close because of the extra loss.

So believe what the committee does, not what it says. History is a great predictor, and history says that if Alabama loses twice, and the second loss is in the SEC title game, it isn’t getting into the playoff. It actually has a better chance getting in if it loses to Auburn then beats Georgia for the league crown. Why? Because it’s a champion.The Tide will probably end up with an SOS somewhere in the area of 10-15, and could be anywhere from 2-5 in Strength of Record, depending on whom it beats down the stretch. Similar resumes have been left on the outside looking in, because championships and single losses have been the magic formula.

I don’t expect that to change.

There will be those who counter with “it’s Bama.” Those people I cannot help, as they won’t bring research or logic to the table. “It’s Bama” isn’t an answer. I mean, it IS, but not a good one.

Could I be wrong? Sure I could. And if the committee somehow chooses a two-loss non-champion Alabama over a one-loss Oklahoma or one-loss Oregon or even one-loss (non-champ) Michigan State, I will admit that I was wrong. Question is, if two-loss non-champ Bama DOESN’T get selected, will the folks who said it was "guaranteed" to happen be as willing to issue a mea culpa?

TAKING A SHOT AT THE NFL DRAFT

Let me make something clear right out of the box -- I am not a fan of the National Football League. I don't watch, save for when the Dallas Cowboys are playing, and I probably couldn't name more than 25 or 30 percent of the players in the league. 

Yet for some reason I have always been enthralled by the NFL Draft. Going back to when ESPN ran a spartan operation, the draft was must-see TV. It was fun to learn about the new faces and how they would fit in with their new employer, and projecting the booms from the busts was a big part of the fun.

It's the same with the NBA. I stopped watching once Larry Legend and Magic decided to dribble off into the sunset, and I wouldn't walk across the street to take in a second of the game. And until recently, I was a fan of the NBA Draft. I always loved the suits, and seeing the announcers botch the names of the international players was always good for a laugh. When I followed college basketball it was natural to at least watch the NBA Draft. But now that I only watch college hoops when Ohio State plays, the draft has become ancient history for me.

The NFL Draft is current, however, and even though I won't be watching the vast majority of these guys at the next level, I will take part in trying to guess where they will be playing ball for the next 5-10 years. There are a few projected trades in this mock, trades I know won't pan out because they almost never do. The teams you think will move up or down stay put, while the ones you can't envision going anywhere always make a bold move.

I am not a draft guru by nature. I watch a ton of college football during the season, take notes during games and then go back and watch players after the season is over. It's more of a hobby than a living for me, so that's why I am often reluctant to do player rankings and mock drafts. I look at it more from a college perspective than how they will project at the next level. It's different, for sure -- whether it's effective remains to be seen.

This is my take on what I think the teams will do, not what I would do -- though if it must be known, I WOULD have Dallas take the same guy at 10 as I am projecting here.

2021 NFL DRAFT

1 Jacksonville: QB Trevor Lawrence/Clemson

2 NY Jets: QB Zach Wilson/Brigham Young

3 San Francisco (from Miami via Houston): QB Justin Fields/Ohio State

4 Atlanta: TE Kyle Pitts/Florida

5 Cincinnati: OT Penei Sewell/Oregon

6 Miami (from Philadelphia): WR Ja’Marr Chase/LSU

7 Detroit: QB Trey Lance/North Dakota State

8 LA Chargers (projected trade with Carolina): OT Rashawn Slater/Northwestern

9 New England (projected trade with Denver): QB Mac Jones/Alabama

10 Dallas: CB Jaycee Horn/South Carolina

11 NY Giants: WR Jaylen Waddle/Alabama

12 Philadelphia (from Miami): CB Patrick Surtain II/Alabama

13 Carolina (projected trade with LA Chargers): OT Christian Darrisaw/Virginia Tech

14 Minnesota: EDGE Kwity Paye/Michigan

15 Denver (projected trade with New England): LB Micah Parsons/Penn State

16 Arizona: WR DeVonta Smith/Alabama

17 Las Vegas Raiders: EDGE Jaelen Phillips/Miami Fla

18 Miami: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah/Notre Dame

19 Washington: OT Alex Leatherwood/Alabama

20 Chicago: OG Alijah Vera-Tucker/USC

21 Indianapolis: DT Christian Barmore/Alabama

22 Tennessee: WR Rashod Bateman/Minnesota

23 NY Jets (from Seattle): CB Caleb Farley/Virginia Tech

24 Pittsburgh: RB Najee Harris/Alabama

25 Jacksonville (from LA Rams): S Trevon Moehrig/TCU

26 Cleveland: LB Zaven Collins/Tulsa

27 Baltimore: EDGE Azeez Olujari/Georgia

28 New Orleans: CB Greg Newsome II/Northwestern

29 Green Bay: OT Teven Jenkins/Oklahoma State

30 Buffalo: EDGE Jayson Oweh/Penn State

31 Baltimore (from Kansas City): OT Jalen Mayfield/Michigan

32 Philadelphia (projected trade with Tampa Bay): WR Kadarius Toney/Florida

 

RANKING DEFENSIVE PROSPECTS FOR 2021 NFL DRAFT

    

Micah Parsons (Matt Freed/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

Last  week we released our top 100 overall players and positional rankings for offense. Today we take a look at the best prospects on defense.

Rankings are done with an eye toward the long-term – some players lower in the rankings may have more early success than higher-ranked guys, but over the long haul the higher-ranked players should deliver more. They also have zero to do with where teams view players, as I am not privy to that information.

There are three tiers of rankings – E (Early part of the round), M (Middle of the round) and L (Later portion of the round). E = picks 1-10, M = picks 11-21, L = picks 22-32. The rankings equate to “round value,” the point at which I would feel comfortable with their selection. I am not into minutiae, so the Pros/Cons section will be fairly basic. I’m not going to talk about hip turn or quick twitch ability, as that’s not my specialty. I take notes during games and then go back to watch later, to make sure my initial impressions weren’t terribly off. There won’t be much talk about scheme fit, either, as I admittedly don’t know enough about what NFL teams run (on either side of the LOS). This is simply how I view players and a brief look at what they are good at and where they can improve.

Pros and cons will be done for the top five players at each position and will be followed by the rest of the players I feel are draftable. I only rank players I have seen, which is why you will see very few small school prospects on these lists. Breaking down oodles of tape isn’t my specialty as I am a college football devotee first. Ranking draft prospects is more a fun pursuit than anything.

Some of the comments may be a different, and the rankings will certainly deviate from some of the experts. That’s a good thing, no?

      POSITIONAL RANKINGS

       EDGE

            1.   Jaelen Phillips/Miami Fla (M1)

PROS: The epitome of a power rusher; Can shed contact with ease; Good footwork, and got better with timing as season progressed; Can make plays vs run and pass;

CONS: Injury history is worrisome, retired due to concussions at UCLA before returning to play at Miami; Rush plan isn’t the best; Can stay too high in his pass rush; You would like to see more career production

            2.   Joseph Ossai/Texas (M1)

PROS: Maybe the best motor in the draft class; Ease of movement, highly productive; Three-down player; Good flexibility and excellent grasp of leverage; Good off-ball defender; Was excellent at creating turnovers at Texas

CONS: Doesn’t have off the charts athleticism; Explosiveness isn’t always evident; More finesse than power, which could be a concern at pro level; Not a wide variety of moves; Hasn’t been great in pass coverage

            3.   Patrick Jones II/Pittsburgh (M1)

PROS: Excellent frame for an edge defender; Fires off the snap, stays low. Hard to get leverage against; Polished pass rusher, has a variety of moves; Solid run defender

CONS: Production took a big drop in 2020; Doesn’t always finish on straight bull rushes; Average hands, sometimes struggles getting away from offensive tackles when engaged; Not much versatility, looks exclusively like a 4-3 end; Could use more upper body strength

            4.   Kwity Paye/Michigan (M1)

PROS: Plus defender vs run game; Can line up inside or outside; Freakishly athletic; Wins with power in bull rush; Has shown steady improvement, not a one year wonder

CONS: Doesn’t have a lot of tools in pass rush box; Needs to do a better job setting up opposing linemen; Pretty much one move guy, doesn’t have much in the way of counter moves; Almost exclusively hand on the ground rusher

            5.   Azeez Olujari/Georgia (L1-E2)

PROS: Lethal first step, often gains advantage around the edge; Can get and stay low; Good planner, keeps opposing tackles guessing; Outstanding athleticism, which makes up for being slightly undersized; Good quickness and body control; Brings effort nearly all the time

CONS: Not much of a power component to his game; If OL gets clean engagement he’s taken out of the play too often; Didn’t play a ton of snaps, wonder about ability to increase workload; Technique could use some work

6.       Gregory Rousseau/Miami Fla. (L1-E2) 

7.       Quincy Roche/Miami Fla. (E2) 

8.       Cam Sample/Tulane (E2)

9.       Jayson Oweh/Penn State (E2-M2)

10.    Carlos Basham Jr/Wake Forest (M2)

11.    Joe Tryon/Washington (L2-E3)

12.    Rashad Weaver/Pittsburgh (E3)

13.    Tarron Jackson/Coastal Carolina (E3-M3)

14.    Payton Turner/Houston (M3)

15.    Dayo Odeyingbo/Vanderbilt (M3)

16.    Ronnie Perkins/Oklahoma (M3-L3)

17.    Janarius Robinson/Florida State (L3)

18.    Wyatt Hubert/Kansas State (L3-E4)

19.    Hamilcar Rashed Jr/Oregon State (M4)

20.    Daelin Hayes/Notre Dame (M4-L4)

21.    Shaka Toney/Penn State (L4-E5)

22.    Victor Dimukeje/Duke (M5)

23.    Jonathon Cooper/Ohio State (M5-L5)

24.    Jordan Smith/UAB (E6)

25.    Joshua Kaindoh/Florida State (E7)

INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINE

1.    Christian Barmore/Alabama (M1-L1)

PROS: Scary flexibility for someone his size; Can clog up the inside with athleticism and rush the passer with power; Did his best under the brightest lights; Excellent raw power, difficult to move

CONS: Needs to find more ways to win one on one contests; Only one season of real productivity; Pad level stays too high at times

2.    Levi Onwuzurike/Washington (L1-E2)

PROS: Explosive, good quickness; Understands leverage, which helps vs run game; Very tough, gritty player; Was productive despite playing out of position for a good portion of 2019 season

CONS: Doesn’t have same effort play-to-play; Didn’t play in 2020, so it feels like hype didn’t match production or talent level; Doesn’t do much if first move fails; Could use more size on his frame

3.    Daviyon Nixon/Iowa (E2)

PROS: Explosive, plays bigger than his size; When on he plays a very violent brand of football; Light and quick feet; Excellent burst off the snap

CONS: Doesn’t jump off the screen with dominance; Just one year of starting experience; Effort has been inconsistent; Needs to improve at shedding blocks, gets locked up way too easily; Will make a big play then disappear for stretches

4.    Jay Tufele/USC (E2)

PROS: Excellent athleticism; Great anticipation and explosion off the snap; Plus defender vs the run, often gets double-teamed; Can overpower single blockers in his pass rush attack; Three-down player

CONS: Sometimes gets too high with pad level; Balance has been questionable; Opted out in 2020, and 2019 tape wasn’t exactly dominant; Seems to be on the ground a lot; Not much versatility with moves as pass rusher

5.    Tommy Togiai/Ohio State (E2-M2)

PROS: Elite run defender, excellent frame and leverage; Uses hands well to shed blocks; Enough quickness to offer some upside as pass rusher; Wins with power

CONS: Lacks desired length for interior defender; Can be knocked off balance too easily at times; Seems destined to be a three-technique, not dynamic enough to play anywhere else; Didn’t become starter until 2020

6.       Alim McNeil/NC State (M2)

7.       Jaylen Twyman/Pittsburgh (M2-L2)

8.       Marvin Wilson/Florida State (L2-E3)

9.       Marlon Tuipulotu/USC (E3)

10.    Darius Stills/West Virginia (M3)

11.    Tyler Shelvin/LSU (M3-L3)

12.    Osa Odighizuwa/UCLA (L3-E4)

13.    Mustafa Johnson/Colorado (E4)

14.    Khyiris Tonga/Brigham Young (M4-L4)

15.    Bobby Brown III/Texas A&M (M4-L4)

16.    Naquan Jones/Michigan State (E5)

17.    Tedarrell Slaton/Florida (M5-L5)

18.    Carlo Kemp/Michigan (L5-E6)

19.    Malik Herring/Georgia (M6)

20.    Forrest Merrill/Arkansas State (L6-E7)

LINEBACKERS

1.    Micah Parsons/Penn State (E1)

PROS: Opted out of 2020 but already had two seasons of dynamic play on his tape; Great combination of size and explosiveness; Wins on third down, making his even more valuable; Excellent instincts, knows how to get to the quarterback; Attack mentality

CONS: Play processing at the second level needs to improve; Not much experience in coverage; Have been some concerns about character

2.    Zaven Collins/Tulsa (M1)

PROS: Blessed with size and athleticism rarely seen at the position; Was a nightmare in coverage for opposing quarterbacks; Projects as an elite blitzer; Excellent burst, smooth movements; Plays downhill

CONS: For someone who is always around the ball he misses far too many tackles; Doesn’t always use power to advantage, lets finesse creep in; Concerns about level of competition; Can occasionally take himself out of a play with poor angles

3.    Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah/Notre Dame (M1)

PROS: Explosiveness is next level; Has the versatility to create pressure and drop into coverage; Excellent instincts, always around the football; Won’t have to leave the field as a three-down defender

CONS: Doesn’t not have prototype linebacker frame; Wasn’t asked to do much inside the tackles; Must do a better job with play speed, was often too aggressive

4.    Nick Bolton/Missouri (L1-E2)

PROS: Great instincts; Violent hitter; Will be able to step in day one and make the defensive calls as he is a very high IQ player; Can make plays in coverage despite lacking top level physical skills

CONS: Doesn’t have great speed or length; Gets stuck on blocks if he isn’t shot out of a cannon at the snap; Sometimes goes for the flashy play over the smart one; Could be better in space

5.    Jabril Cox/LSU (L1-E2)

PROS: A winner in pass coverage; Very smooth in all directions; Has shone in multiple defensive schemes; High motor type; Can play coverage to most areas of the field

CONS: Can get overpowered vs the run; Not the best at playing through contact; Can go off script and put himself in bad positions; Needs to play more assignment football

6.       Chazz Surratt/North Carolina (E2)

7.       Baron Browning/Ohio State (M2)

8.       Cameron McGrone/Michigan (M2-L2)

9.       Pete Werner/Ohio State (E3-M3)

10.    Dylan Moses/Alabama (M3-L3)

11.    KJ Britt/Auburn (M3-L3)

12.    Charles Snowden/Virginia (L3-E4)

13.    Jamin Davis/Kentucky (E4)

14.    Tony Fields II/West Virginia (E4-M4)

15.    Monty Rice/Georgia (M4)

16.    Paddy Fisher/Northwestern (L4-E5)

17.    Justin Hilliard/Ohio State (E5)

18.    Ventrell Miller/Florida (M5-L5)

19.    Erroll Thompson/Mississippi State (L5-E6)

20.    Derrick Barnes/Purdue (M6-L6)

21.    Anthony Hines III/Texas A&M (L6-E7)

22.    Grant Stuard/Houston (E7)

23.    Garret Wallow/TCU (E7-M7)

CORNERBACKS

1.    Jaycee Horn/South Carolina (E1)

PROS: Extremely confident, always believes he’s the best player on the field; Experience playing outside and in slot; Long and physical; Disruptive in press coverage; Excellent ball skills, wins at the catch point;

CONS: Concerns about tackling; Better in press man than off-man; Will guess on occasion, which puts him behind the receiver; May be a bit too physical, won’t get away with things at next level

2.    Patrick Surtain II/Alabama (M1)

PROS: Great length; Disciplined at LOS; Excellent technique, consistent; High football IQ; Light on his feet, excellent short area quickness; Solid in run support

CONS: Deep speed; Not elite athletically; Very average in change of direction; Doesn’t win enough at catch point; Can get a bit grabby on shorter routes

3.    Caleb Farley/Virginia Tech (M1)

PROS: Excellent length and athleticism; Sticky in man coverage; Physical at the line, hard to beat in press coverage; Excellent speed, can recover if a receiver gets by him; Even better in zone coverage than in man

CONS: Injury history is a concern; Not the best or most willing tackler; Opted out of 2020 season so haven’t seen as much consistency as you’d like; Indifferent vs the run

4.    Asante Samuel Jr/Florida State (L1-E2)

PROS: Superb balance, which helps with start and stop ability; Excellent instincts, a ball hawk; Top level change of direction and break; Willing and able tackler; Won’t shy away from run defense

CONS: Size a concern for an outside corner; Needs to improve in zone coverage; Bigger receivers were a problem for him; Probably won’t have same success in press coverage at next level due to size limitations

5.    Elijah Molden/Washington (L1-E2)

PROS: Doesn’t mind getting tackling in the run game; Great instincts, can bait quarterbacks into mistakes; Physical at catch point; Transitions to vertical routes very well

CONS: Not a lot of versatility, seems ticketed for slot duties; Lacks top end speed; Lack of length could be a problem against bigger, physical receivers; Not an elite athlete

6.       Ifeatu Melifonwu/Syracuse (E2)

7.       Rodarius Williams/Oklahoma State (M2)

8.       Eric Stokes/Georgia (M2-L2)

9.       Greg Newsome II/Northwestern (M2-L2)

10.    Shaun Wade/Ohio State (E3-M3)

11.    Tyson Campbell/Georgia (M3)

12.    Tay Gowan/UCF (M3-L3)

13.    Paulson Adebo/Stanford (L3-E4)

14.    Kelvin Joseph/Kentucky (L3-E4)

15.    Benjamin St Juste/Minnesota (E4)

16.    Keith Taylor Jr/Washington (E4-M4)

17.    Aaron Robinson/UCF (M4)

18.    Kary Vincent/LSU (L4-E5)

19.    Israel Mukuamu/South Carolina (E5)

20.    Ambry Thomas/Michigan (E5-M5)

21.    Olaijah Griffin/USC (L5-E6)

22.    Trill Williams/Syracuse (E6)

23.    Tre Norwood/Oklahoma (E6-M6)

24.    Shakur Brown/Michigan State (M6)

25.    Tre Brown/Oklahoma (M6)

26.    Thomas Graham Jr/Oregon (L6-E7)

27.    Avery Williams/Boise State (M7)

28.    Manny Rugamba/Miami Ohio (M7)

SAFETIES

1.    Trevon Moehrig/TCU (L1-E2)

PROS: At his best patrolling the middle of the field; Smooth mover; Excellent ball skills for a safety, seven career INTs; Plays through the catch point, elite at pass break ups; Good explosiveness, hard hitter

CONS: Could be better against the run; Often out of control in his tackling technique vs the run; Peeks at the quarterback too often, which makes him susceptible to double moves; Doesn’t have great range

2.    Richie Grant/UCF (E2)

PROS: Understands defense, processing speed is elite; Very good tackler; Makes plays more consistently than expected for someone who isn’t an elite athlete; Has versatility, can play single-high or closer to LOS

CONS: Doesn’t have elite play speed; Limited range; Some teams will be concerned with his age (23); Physical traits are just average; Doesn’t always take best angles to the football

3.    Talanoa Hufanga/USC (E2-M2)

PROS: Frightening hitter; Effective as underneath zone defender; Sneaky good as a blitzer; Pretty good straight line speed; Show solid ball skills, picking off four passes in 2020; Solid instincts

CONS: Won’t help much against the deep passing game; Playing in space is not his thing; Could be better at start/stop game; Injuries have been too frequent, and with his style of play you wonder if that can be controlled; May end up at a linebacker at some point

4.    Jevon Holland/Oregon (M2)

PROS: Versatile, can line up in numerous places; Excellent athletically; Top level ball skills; A playmaker, ha a nose for the football; Excellent instincts

CONS: Lacks elite explosiveness; Straight line speed is just average; Can be had by double moves; Opted out of 2020 season, so no chance to take that next step; Wouldn’t hurt to add size as physical players often had their way against him

5.    Hamsah Nasirildeen/Florida State (L2-E3)

PROS: Top notch tackler; Versatile, lined up all over the field at Florida State; Great balance, plays under control; Has the length to fend off blockers; Physical, plays downhill; Has shown explosiveness is short space

CONS: Not much of a playmaker; Questionable read skills; Speed is nothing special; Injuries have been a problems; For someone as physical as he is, wasn’t asked to do much as a blitzer; Change of direction isn’t very fluid

6.       Andre Cisco/Syracuse (L2-E3)

7.       James Wiggins/Cincinnati (E3)

8.       Paris Ford/Pittsburgh (M3-L3)

9.       Ar’Darius Washington/TCU (M3-L3)

10.    Joshuah Bledsoe/Missouri (L3-E4)

11.    Tariq Thompson/San Diego State (M4)

12.    Divine Deablo/Virginia Tech (M4-L4)

13.    Richard LeCounte/Georgia (L4-E5)

14.    JaCoby Stevens/LSU (L4-E5)

15.    Caden Sterns/Texas (E5)

16.    Eric Burrell/Wisconsin (M5-L5)

17.    Damar Hamlin/Pittsburgh (L5-E6)

18.    Reed Blankenship/Middle Tennessee (L5-E6)

19.    Brady Breeze/Oregon (E6)

20.    Darrick Forrest/Cincinnati (E6-M6)

21.    Shemar Jean-Charles/Appalachian State (M6-L6)

22.    Lamont Wade/Penn State (L6-E7)

23.    Ky’el Hemby/Southern Miss (M7-L7)