When college basketball tournaments were canceled, we should have seen the warning signs. When baseball's Opening Day came and went without a single bat cracking, we should have seen the writing on the wall. When there was no Kentucky Derby or Indianapolis 500, it should have told us something.
Instead, we kept jumping for that dangling carrot known as hope -- hope that there would be college football this fall.
Today's announcements by the Big Ten and Pac-12 that they are postponing their seasons until the spring are the first in what could be many dominos to tumble. The MAC and Mountain West earlier made decisions to shut down, and most of Division II and Division III have done the same. Even though we could see the handwriting on the wall, we still clung to the notion that the "big boys" wouldn't do such a thing, that we would still have our fall Saturdays.
But it wasn't to be.
There is logic on both sides of the argument, so I won't pretend that the decision made by the leagues was an easy one. It's certainly not one I would want to be a part of.
Fans see it as caving to fear, as cowardice -- despite medical experts sounding the alarms that a return to college campuses could make it much easier for players to contract COVID-19. There's also emerging data that long term effects include myocarditis -- which may have played a role in the death of otherwise healthy 27-year-old basketball player Michael Ojo. He was reported to have tested positive, but recovered. Reports said he died of a heart attack. Boston Red Sox ace Eduardo Rodriguez is sitting out MLB's season because he's dealing with a heart-related issue stemming from his bout with COVID-19. So there are real reasons to be leery of allowing teams to play.
Even so, you feel so bad for the players, who have been putting in time and effort to get ready for a 2020 season that was already going to be abnormal. When word came prematurely on Monday that the Big Ten had voted to cancel the season, players took to social media and got #WeWantToPlay trending. Fans retweeted and kept it going, to the point that it looked like the tide had shifted. Maybe the Big Ten WAS going to give it a go.
But it wasn't to be.
Ohio State is one of a handful of Big Ten schools --- Penn State, Michigan and Nebraska being the others -- that hasn't had a single positive test since workouts resumed last month. The players see it this way -- if our protocols and practices have worked, why should we be penalized? Buckeyes coach Ryan Day came out strongly in favor of a fall season, saying "We cannot cancel the season right now. We have to, at the very least, postpone it and allow us a little bit of time to re-evaluate what's going on. That's the reason why we put this schedule together, to have some flexibility. If we need to take a deep breath, let's take a deep breath. We owe it to these kids to exhaust every single option we possibly can, and then we go from there."
He may not be wrong.
Why should the schools that have done everything right be penalized? Well, for one thing, the schools are worried about liability issues. Everything can be hunky-dory right now, but if Michigan plays Wisconsin and then we find out that both teams had players infected, those teams would need to shut it down immediately. And it would affect future opponents. And if a kid gets really sick, or, heaven forbid, dies? The backlash and monetary damage that school would suffer would be unimaginable. So I can see why the presidents did what they did. It doesn't mean I have to like it, though.
I do think the players and coaches stumping to play have a legitimate gripe, and their voices should have been at least heard. They are adults, they know the risks going in, and yet they still want to play. Hell, their parents want them to play. You'd think THEY would be the most apprehensive group out there, worried that their kids would test positive and then face who knows what kind of recovery time. Yet they were united in their desire to see their sons play football this fall.
But it wasn't to be.
Moving to the spring sounds good in principle, but it's just kicking the can down the road. The likelihood of games actually happening seems slim. And if they are played, it will take a game-day program to figure out who is playing because the big-time stars will most likely be preparing for the NFL Draft. The best course of action would be to just scrap the 2020 season altogether and look forward to 2021.
If the Big Ten and Pac-12 end up as the only Power 5 leagues to postpone -- which I don't believe will be the case -- the 2020 season will definitely have a bit of a "what if?" feel. There would definitely be some big time games, but to not have Ohio State or Penn State or Oregon -- or Oklahoma, should the Big 12 hop the fence it's currently sitting on -- would just be odd. And if the other three leagues play in the fall, what is the incentive for the Big Ten and Pac-12 in the spring? There won't be any bowl games or College Football Playoff to shoot for. So what, exactly, is the motivation?
The logistical hurdles involved in spring ball are numerous -- do seniors have their eligibility extended? If so, what do teams do with freshmen who wanted to report early? Those seniors, and underclassmen who go to the draft, free up the scholarships that the new guys get. If the seniors are still around, do the freshmen have to wait to enroll? Will the NCAA allow a one time easing of the 85 scholarship limit? And how do schools strapped for money pay for the extra full schollies? Hell, will the freshmen be eligible to play in the spring? A lot of uncertainty there.
There's also the matter of TV contracts -- college basketball dominates ESPN in the spring, and is also shown by CBS and Fox. ESPN has the NBA as well, so getting programming juggled around without pissing off someone will be tough. I know that college football would get the nod over March Madness in my house, but that may not be the case for everyone.
The biggest concern would be compacting two seasons into nine months. If teams are playing March to May, they would have only June off before fall camps for 2021 open in July. Don't give me the "they can just push back the start of 2021" argument. I mean, they CAN, but there is no earthly reason to affect two seasons if you don't have to. There wouldn't be nearly enough recovery time between seasons, which means injuries would almost certainly increase. And that's why the league honchos saying that "player safety" is the reason for the postponement are being disingenuous.
They know that there are billions at stake if there is no college football. They know that many of their Olympic sports will have, at the least, scholarship reductions, and at the worst, be no more. Money is the big driver here, not player safety. The presidents are hoping the move to spring buys them some time -- time for a vaccine to be created, time for them to reconfigure their programs, time for them to just take a deep breath. They know that the immediate health of their university's sports hang in the balance, and they will do everything in their power to make sure that they don't go the way of the dinosaur. So, yeah, it's not about "player safety." It's about money.
However this all shakes out -- and my guess is that many, many college football fans will have a gaping hole in their Saturday schedules -- the impact will be felt for many seasons. It was the hope from this corner that we could get just a little semblance of normalcy, that we could cheer on our teams and revel in the chase for the title.
But it wasn't to be.
